Preview: UConn 2022
Essentials
WHAT | Michigan (2-0) vs UConn (1-2) | |
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WHERE | Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI |
|
WHEN | Noon Eastern | |
THE LINE | M –47.5 | |
TELEVISION | Somehow ABC | |
TICKETS | From $38. | |
WEATHER |
Partly cloudy, low 80s, |
Overview
Last week Seth asserted this because Hawai'i was ranked 128th in SP+:
There are bad teams. There are atrocious teams. There are Rutgers teams that belie the whole concept of Power 5. Then there's about 15 feet of crap. And then there's Hawai'i.
UConn is 126th, so just ditto everything from last week. This is the worst nonconference schedule in Michigan history. For what it's worth, UConn is 1-2 with a 31-20 loss to Utah State and a 48-14 loss to Syracuse; a 28-3 win over FCS Central Connecticut State is the win. Vegas projects Michigan to win by seven touchdowns.
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Run Offense vs UConn
This hasn't been abject. While Utah State put up 261 yards it took them 54 carries to get there, and Syracuse barely got over 3 YPC. If you're thinking "just Syracuse," the Orangemen returned both QB Garrett Shrader (4.5 YPC on 173 carries in 2021) and RB Sean Tucker (6.1 YPC!) from the ACC's third-best rushing offense—and one much close to first place than fourth.
Indeed, UConn's defense features no cyan players in their front six (though box/nickel safety Chris Shearin did check in as a trouble spot) in Alex's FFFF, which asks a deep philosophical question:
So we have to talk about UConn's defense? Has anyone ever written this much about UConn Football in the past 10 years?
No, Alex. Not even their moms.
Anyway, this defense has a legitimate DL in Collin McCarthy, who's a very odd bird. He plays a Wormley-esque DE/DT at 6'7", 253 pounds. That height and weight combination is more tight end than interior DL, but he's making it work:
He made his presence known on the third play from scrimmage by hammering his assignment into the backfield, getting off the block, and bringing the RB down for no gain:
DT #91 lined up third from the bottom of the line
Michigan had a couple interior OL hiccups against Hawaii and McCarthy will be a reasonable test as Michigan heads into the conference portion of the schedule. Also a potential test:
That's a 3-3-5 that is one of two different base packages for the UConn defense—a bog-standard 4-2-5 is the other. Michigan has not seen odd fronts with fancy blitzes this year and given the size of the UConn front I have to believe they're going to be sending guys from everywhere.
About that size: yeah, they're real tiny. McCarthy, as mentioned, is WDE sized and plays DT. Their other two down linemen are reasonably large, but their LB level goes 240, 227, 215, 197. It is likely that UConn will bring in some more beef if Michigan goes with heavy packages , but Alex thought there was a "pretty clear drop off from the first team DL" even against Utah State, so this might be another game where Luke Schoonmaker exits with a giant score after bashing in various guys who don't want 260 pounds of blocking smoke.
KEY MATCHUP: OLUWATIMI vs POINTING. Going to be a lot of pointing at guys, and then hoping you've got your line set right when UConn does all sorts of things to try to cover for the fact that if Michigan delivers an OL to any linebacker that guy is going for the donkey ride.
Pass Offense vs UConn
please imbibe safety on bottom hash next to umpire
This is abject. UConn gave up 9.1 yards per attempt to Utah State and 12.1(!) to Syracuse. Their problem is that they cannot cover. Also they cannot rush. Their two main problems are that they cannot cover or rush. Just take in a few plays here from the Syracuse game:
Garrett Shrader could fall in a tar pit, die, and become coal before a Husky sacks him.
Meanwhile Alex took multiple clips of a Mountain West quarterback who's not exactly JJ McCarthy slinging ten yard hitches to the field that featured YAC:
My biggest fear in this game is watching the UConn corners and having flashbacks to RichRod secondaries. If you find me wandering the concourse muttering "James Rogers never dies," please douse me with water.
But, yeah: this will be an opportunity for JJ McCarthy to fling things around. UConn drops into a lot of seven and eight man zones. These are not good zones, but it is at least some level of test. Watching the Syracuse highlights is illuminating. One reason the horrible pass rush is so prominent is that Syracuse's QB is holding the ball forever trying to figure out where to go. Ideally McCarthy will be more decisive, with hang-around-forever-then-improvise stuff limited to a few plays here and there.
KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs SELF. If McCarthy is anywhere near his performance level last week, he can name his score. Or Michigan can get up 7-0, run one dropback, and see out the quarter. Either way.
Run Defense vs UConn
[UConn]
Like Hawaii, UConn comes in with one offensive player who has a bit of juice and it's the running back, Nathan Carter. Alex:
Carter has 384 yards on 59 rushes for a cool 6.5 yards per carry. Of course we have to keep in mind strength of schedule for those stats (two of UConn's three opponents have been this Utah State team and a bad FCS team in Central Connecticut State), but Carter showed some traits I like even when his OL is not winning consistently. His longest rush in this game was mostly the doing of his offensive line, but he makes the right cutback:
He looks quite a bit like CJ Stokes. It's doubtful that UConn is going to be able to maintain Carter's yards per carry in this game, though. They did crush Utah State and CCSU for 245 and 274 yards, but a P5 defense that SP+ projects as middling at best (Syracuse's defense is 49th) held the Huskies under 100 rushing yards. Carter picked up 71 on 16 carries. It's also worth noting that Utah State appears to be horrible this year—they're coming off a 35-7 loss to Weber State.
KEY MATCHUP: WEAKSIDE ENDS vs DOUBLES. UConn did run a bunch of heavy formations against Syracuse and went under center a ton. Given their QB situation it makes some sense to just load up and see if opponents can handle the heavy stuff. Michigan is not a good candidate for this approach but what else do they have? The concern for Michigan, such as it is, is that Braiden McGregor got blown out by a couple doubles, and Derrick Moore is a freshman, etc.
Pass Defense vs UConn
true freshman: hello
Remember Ta'Quan Roberson? Probably not. If you don't: last year Penn State was leading Iowa in the most unlikely #3 vs #4 matchup of all time when Sean Clifford was knocked out of the game. Roberson came in, and this is what happened:
Roberson struggled, completing 7 of 21 passes for 34 yards. He threw two interceptions and added 27 yards on the ground on 10 rushes. Perhaps most concerning was pre-snap penalties that piled up — eight false starts in all.
That was Roberson's last appearance at Penn State. He transferred to UConn, where he got two attempts against Utah State before tearing his ACL. Michigan is now going to face that guy's backup. The guy who did not beat out the other guy who could not get to 1.5 YPA in his one extended playing time.
That guy is true freshman Zion Turner. Turner actually has a reasonable recruiting profile as the composite #600 player in last year's class, and he led Florida powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas to back-to-back state titles. I expected worse. But… yeah, this looks like it's going to be one of those Rutgers games where the quarterback isn't throwing anything more than three yards downfield. Turner completed just 12 of 31 attempts against Utah State. Once UConn was able to go over the tape they decided on the Johnny Langan. Turner completed 14/17 against Syracuse, but only gained 92 yards on those completions despite a 56-yard touchdown on a WR screen. The other 13 completions went for 2.8 yards a pop. Literally nothing went downfield farther than the odd slant.
That's not fate for Turner, who has at least provided some glimmers of the ability to throw further than seven yards, but if that was the prescription for a home game against Syracuse it's unlikely that the Husky coaching staff is eyeing this game as the one where Turner gets a lot of dropbacks to show off what he can do. Expect the blizzard of screens.
KEY MATCHUP: SAFETIES vs BOREDOM. They're going to get a steady diet of guys to tackle in the open field and probably two balls that attempt to go over the top. Get hypnotized by the screen screen screen screen and someone might pop up behind you.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter George Cataran may be familiar for depth chart freaks: he was at Michigan in 2018 and 2019, though he did not see the field. A transfer to Arkansas preceded his transfer to UConn. Finally on the field, he's averaging 41 yards an attempt with almost literally no return yards suffered—a total of five on 14 punts. This is only good for 80th in FEI's punt efficiency stat, somehow.
Kicker Noe Ruelas is a redshirt freshman who's 2/3 on the year, so it's anyone's guess if he's any good.
UConn return units have done nothing of note to date. They do have a lot of short slippery guys, and last year Keelan Marion averaged 12 yards a pop—the problem was that UConn's defense was historically awful so they only returned 13 punts on the year.
Michigan remains very good at special teams.
KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST
INTANGIBLES
CHEAP THRILLS
Worry if…
- The pass protection metric isn't at least 95%.
- Collin McCarthy has a day.
- There is a downfield completion.
Cackle with knowing glee if…
- "JJ McCarthy just doesn't miss" continues being literal.
- Notre Dame loses again.
- An angel descends at halftime and promises we never have to play UConn again.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Ta'Quan Roberson's Backup, –1 for James Rogers Clone Army In Secondary, –1 for Lookin' Up At EMU in SP+, –1 for JJ Flamerthrower Era Engage, –1 for More Like UConn't)
Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for This Would Be Several Times Worse Than The Horror.)
Loss will cause me to… blow on the cartridge until the Matrix stops glitching.
Win will cause me to… same as last week: spend next week pretending what JJ did against this defense was remotely meaningful.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Pain. Mostly for people in the stadium when they go TD-commercial-kickoff-commercial-three-and-out-commercial-TD-commercial. And UConn.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:
- CJ Stokes cracks 100 yards rushing.
- Darrius Clemons scores a touchdown.
- JJ McCarthy DSR: 92%.
- Michigan, 57-8
September 16th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
This is one game I'm not sad about missing. WD's recap vid will be sufficient.
September 16th, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
Yeah, considering the opposition, it's almost preferable to wait to read the reports than to watch.
Of course, I'll watch. I wrote "almost preferable." But still, praying for Brian's angel to descend to promise no more UConn.
September 16th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
Perfect game to record and start watching around 2:00 so you can fast forward through all commercials but still feel somewhat current.
September 17th, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
Yup! I blundered and visited the Free Press website when the score was only 38-0 on my viewing, but the game was over, so that took away all the suspense.
September 16th, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^
Their problem is that they cannot cover. Also they cannot rush. Their two main problems are that they cannot cover or rush.
Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
September 16th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
Sounds like a great day to go pass happy because I'd bet not a single Cuse WR would play a minute for us and they still got space. After a few seconds Cornelius or Roman or Andrel or someone else are going to be wide open
September 16th, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
I enunciated Brian's use of "UConn't" and realized Brian is also a potty mouth alongside Seth. Yes, my brain never matured past 12.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:06 PM ^
I feel like Seth’s score prediction would have been 57-12. Maybe 61-8.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^
Deep down, who amongst us doesn't have a 12-year-old boy inside them?
...
September 16th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
Even the master of time, space and dimension Elon Musk himself is forever 12 like the rest of us:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1551054131413991424?s=20&t=xZzCr9cA2gZwwif6JSZkJA
September 16th, 2022 at 3:04 PM ^
"Cackle with knowing glee if Notre Dame loses again" literally almost made me do a spit-take at my desk.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
OTOH -- and I'm sorry for being such a downer here -- there will be no cackling with knowing glee when you hear what dum poop Scott Frost is doing with Nebraska this weekend. I feel like we've lost much of our innocence here.
September 16th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Umm, whut? Pretty sure I missed a joke somewhere... Frost is gone, all week.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^
I have Michigan -11.5 in the 1st quarter. Hopefully JJ comes out throwing darts again and then let Cade get his confidence back.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
I plan on watching Michigan play football on Saturday. It's a good time.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
In this game, Brad Robbins will have even more spare time on his hands then he did in the second half of the OSU, which he will hopefully put to use sharpening his mustache tips
September 16th, 2022 at 3:27 PM ^
Did someone predict PAIN?
September 16th, 2022 at 3:31 PM ^
Are we seeing the first ever 100% DSR followed by the first ever 0 Fear/Paranoia level? Is BPONE dead?
September 16th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^
BPONE may lie dormant for a time but never dies.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:32 PM ^
If the final spread is under 50 I’ll be throwing things at the TV
September 16th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
YOU TAKE THAT FIRST HALF SPREAD.
Dang you people! Dont you learn?
JJ/Corum good for your wallet
A Gash Orji not so much. -Lit and figs
September 16th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
I want to kill this team.
I was at the game in Hartford. At halftime I ran to the beer keg under the stands selling better than average beer and tried to get drunk as quickly as possible. UConn fans kept coming up to me. I figured they were just going to talk smack, but instead to a man they begged me to have the Big Ten extend them an invite to the conference, as if my sad ass had even a modicum of pull.
It was misery. I want revenge, fully recognizing, the only person who deserves opprobrium besides Brady Hoke was me for my own decisions.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
Is that really their trademarked logo? It's a Photoshop filter on a picture of a real dog and that real dog looks sad and not like a Husky. Poor thing.
September 16th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
Lazy eyed dogs are a real issue in Connecticut.
September 16th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
Yeah, I assumed that logo was just internet satire and not an actual trademarked thing.
September 16th, 2022 at 5:48 PM ^
Haha the current version is probably the best but I remember that 2000s version and absolutely adore the 1960s version. Who's a good boy who beat back the redcoats?
September 16th, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised, those helmets look more like a rorschach test or a butterfly than a husky
September 16th, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
I'm probably the only person super excited for this game. Taking my fiance to her first game at the Big House and my parents also flew in for the game. My parents met at Uconn and we used to have season tickets in the 2005-2008 era (and always had basketball tix growing up).
But as for the game itself, yeesh.
September 16th, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^
I kinda wish NE football was in mostly one conference. Like, I get wanting to be in the Big Ten, but I wish all the old Big East schools not in the Big Ten would be in the Big Atlantic and play each other. Cincy, L'Ville, WVU, 'Cuse, BC, Pitt, Temple, UConn, and throw in UMass, Army and Navy for good measure. And I guess UVA and VT can join too, and heck why not Buffalo and Marshall?
I've come to terms with the fact that super leagues are happening, but maybe the G5 and P3 can kinda re-org into sensible, regional leagues? Apparently I'm still in the bargaining phase.
September 17th, 2022 at 1:30 AM ^
Taking my 6 year old daughter to her first game tomorrow. I’m also VERY excited.
September 16th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
Time to start up the JJ hiesman campaign
September 16th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^
What am I looking at in the Intangibles pic?
I’d like to imagine those gatos are in the backfield sacking that poor husky pup but the one is licking his lips while the other gives a “You didn’t see anything” stare and the husko seems to have accepted his fate
September 16th, 2022 at 4:12 PM ^
Garrett Shrader could fall in a tar pit, die, and become coal before a Husky sacks him.
Spent more than a few seconds wondering if hyperbole or not
September 16th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
Its a bummer our 3 non-con opponents have been abjectly awful. If the JJ/Cade QB battle hadn't added some spice, I wouldve been bored by now. I'm gonna guess this is Hawaii pt 2
35-3 at halftime
45-10 final
September 16th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
Looks like Collin McCarthy will be out...
September 16th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Ohh C'mon!! The only possibly good player on their defense is out? Can we tar and feather Manual for this OOC schedule? And then shoot him because it's almost bird season? This is fucking terrible...
I actually heard radio talking heads on SiriusXM wondering if Michigan should be allowed into the playoffs if we get there because of this weak-ass noncon bullshit. Dammit - that is what WE say about the noncon offerings from ACC and SEC teams. JFC.
September 16th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
Dammit - that is what WE say about the noncon offerings from ACC and SEC teams. JFC.
So we should strive to be less like the SEC and ACC - the number 1 and 2 conferences in terms of playoff representation?
September 16th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
We just have to find a way to enjoy such slaughters. UCONN is getting paid for this beating, let's get every penny's worth.
September 16th, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
Just wondering what portion of today's viewing audience has no idea what "blowing the cartridge" means. Does it now make me old that I know this quite well?
September 16th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
No better way to get a NES cartridge up and running again!
September 17th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
I still have my old one in storage somewhere. At first I forgot I has kept it, but then decided that it *might possibly (but probably not)* but worth something some day.
September 16th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Or Michigan can get up 7-0, run one dropback, and see out the quarter.
At first I was confused, and then when I got it I let out a single but loud "guffaw" at my desk. Well played.
September 16th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Donkey rides FTW.
September 16th, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
"Vegas projects Michigan to win by seven touchdowns."
I don't think that's accurate. What's true is that Vegas had to spot UConn seven touchdowns to even up the betting. People don't bet on who's going to win (score the most points), they bet against the line and they bet emotionally. The line doesn't move because some swami thinks one team has gotten better or worse, the line moves to even up the betting.
September 16th, 2022 at 10:52 PM ^
What's true is that Vegas had to spot UConn seven touchdowns to even up the betting.
This canard has been debunked again and again on this board. No, they don't actually care if the total betting is 50-50 or not. They care about what the sharps are doing.
September 17th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
Confirmed. Books absolutely don't shoot for 50/50. The opening lines are intentionally not over-engineered, and then sharp money and the market will move it around a bit. However, they're 100% ok with asymmetrical betting because they're confident in their lines.
September 16th, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
At least this game will finish before Sunday.
September 16th, 2022 at 9:23 PM ^
This seems less like baby seals than the red-spotted efts that I forgot on top of the back car seat on the way home from conservation camp.
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