Monday Recruitin' Discusses Stargazing
Camp Commits: Two Down, More To Go?
I'm told that #Michigan could land a new 2016 commitment as early as tomorrow http://t.co/FFlc03vTYt ($) @SamWebb77 @AllenTrieu @BriceMarich
— Corey Bender (@Corey_Bender) June 7, 2015
If you actually did things this weekend, you missed two commitments, one piece of inflammatory recruiting material, and enough Harbaugh headlines that Brian mercifully covered the satellite camp stuff not directly related to recruiting in today's UV, or this post would be 19,000 words and published posthumously.
The camp tour continued on to Florida, and the in-person evaluations led to several offers, including the one that set off the latest commit watch:
Truly blessed to say that I received an offer from the University of Michigan #GoBlue @SleeperAthletes @SlyJohnson3 pic.twitter.com/RoLK9zwHrD
— Terrell Lucas Jr. (@_TerrellLucas) June 7, 2015
Lucas is a three-star WDE/OLB, and he stood out to 247's Ryan Bartow as one of the top five performers at the Miami satellite camp:
2016 DE Terrell Lucas - Has over a dozen verbal offers. Michigan added their name to the list along with Syracuse and Minnesota, among others. Lucas is a prep defensive end that will likely transition to a 3-4 outside linebacker in college. He has a good frame. Takes coaching well. He was outstanding at last week's Alabama camp and was equally good in front of Michigan's staff.
Six other offers went out to Florida prospects yesterday; Bartow covers three in this free post and two in another, and Brandon Brown adds another; they are:
- Three-star 2016 CB Antwaine Richardson, a high school teammate of incoming freshman DE Shelton Johnson.
- Two-star 2016 S Josh Metellus, a Georgia Southern commit.
- Two-star 2016 SDE/TE Rashad Weaver.
- 2017 WR Clevan Thomas, who reportedly stole the show at the Miami camp.
- 2017 RB Jordan Merrell, a Cincinnati commit.
- 2017 WR Daquon Green, who's added several top-notch offers recently.
This seems like a good opportunity to talk about recruiting rankings and camp offers, since the commitment of largely unranked Dytarious Johnson, the possibility of Lucas also committing, and the number of offers going out to lower-ranked prospects has caused consternation among a certain segment of the fanbase.
Yes, recruiting rankings have been proven time and again to matter when it comes to projecting success. Final recruiting rankings, that is. I'm not saying Johnson is going to turn out to be a five-star, but I'd also be shocked if he were anything less than a solid three-star come February, and I doubt there'd be complaints about his commitment if that were his current ranking. Recruiting rankings change all the way up to Signing Day because the services get more data to inform their ratings; that includes senior film and the very camp evaluations Michigan's coaches are making in-person at each of these stops.
If Michigan is frantically adding unranked recruits on Signing Day, there'd be plenty of reason for worry. It's June. Despite several top-tier players showing high interest, the coaches were comfortable extending these offers and accepting commitments from prospects they'd had the chance to see up close. Given Harbaugh's track record of identifying and developing talent—not to mention the potential readily apparent in Johnson's junior highlights—it's far too soon to use incomplete recruiting rankings as the ultimate gauge for the recruiting class. Michigan still has room to add blue-chippers—and lest we forget, they added a consensus four-star last week, too. Sounding the "it's RichRod recruiting all over again" alarm before it's officially summer is an overreaction at best.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
Other Camps Exist, Too
Wins for #Michigan commit Michael Onwenu (@_MXKEY) over 4-star Rashard Lawrence #RivalsChallenge https://t.co/EhEUizi8Xm
— Rivals Camp Series (@RivalsCamp) June 6, 2015
While the coaches are hard at work looking to fill out the class, current Michigan commits are hitting the camp trail and impressing onlookers. In a field loaded with talent, OG Michael Onwenu was named the eighth-best offensive performer at the Rivals Five-Star Challenge:
The 6-foot-4, 368-pound offensive guard was impenetrable on the interior. Onwenu has a strong upper body and moves his arms well to keep defensive linemen from dictating the pressure. The recent Michigan commit played with good leverage and kept a solid base as he fought off the rush.
At the Elite 11 semifinals in Los Angeles, QB Brandon Peters did everything but earn a ticket to the finals, according to Scout's Greg Biggins ($):
With 10 players now invited, it’s going to be very difficult for the Elite 11 staff to decide on the remaining eight players as there wasn’t a whole lot separating the group of signal callers this weekend. If we had a vote, which we don’t, the next guy we would lock in would be Avon’s (Ind.) Brandon Peters. ...
Peters was in our top five on Saturday and was equally impressive on Sunday. He was smart and decisive with his throws during the 7v7, didn’t force passes that weren’t there and protected the football very well. When he did have a chance to go deeper down the field, he took advantage and was very accurate. The Michigan commit shows a lot of poise and his game translates very well to the next level.
With eight spots still to fill for the finals, one would think Peters will get an invite.
Finally, it should come as little surprise that camp commit Chris Evans once again impressed in that setting, this time at the RAS Showcase in Fort Wayne, where 247's Steve Wiltfong said he stood out on both sides of the ball:
Evans is a warrior.
In less than two weeks, Evans has spent a lot of time in the car driving to various college visits, camps and the state track meet, but doesn’t ever look tired on the field. He loves competing.
On this day, Evans began his day playing cornerback where he was able to keep in check the best receivers at the camp with his lateral quickness and ability to turn and run.
In the afternoon, Evans switch to running back and blew by linebackers showing what an asset he can be in the passing game.
While Evans is expected to play in the slot at Michigan, it certainly wouldn't hurt his chances of making an impact if he shows he can play corner at a high level, too.
Etc.
Egg Harbor City (N.J.) Cedar Creek wide receiver Ahmir Mitchell showing #Michigan love. pic.twitter.com/bQB2pIg6Te
— Brandon Brown (@BSB_Wolverine) June 5, 2015
A couple recruiting updates came out of the Rivals Five-Star Challenge. In a video interview with Mike Farrell, four-star PA TE Naseir Upshur said Michigan is the school currently out in front for him, and it's one of three schools—along with Florida State and Arizona State—he knows for sure he wants to visit officially. Upshur also has strong interest in South Carolina. He's been in contact with four-star New Jersey receivers Brad Hawkins and Ahmir Mitchell about visiting campus together.
Mitchell, meanwhile, showed up at the camp rocking Michigan socks, for whatever that's worth. He gave Rivals' Adam Gorney his current top four ($):
Virginia Tech could be a legitimate contender for four-star wide receiver Ahmir Mitchell since he grew up in the state but others are definitely pursuing as well.
The Egg Harbor City (N.J.) Cedar Creek prospect also is really high on Michigan, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Even though he lists Ole Miss among his favorites it would be a surprise if he ended up there.
Mitchell said he will probably wait until his senior season to make a decision.
With four-star WR Austin Mack committing to Ohio State over the weekend (happy trails), there's been a lot of optimism from the Michigan end that Mitchell will end up in the fold.
Michigan made the top ten for four-star HI OL Michael Eletise, per 247's Lars Hanson ($).
We're obviously signing with Under Armour /s
Kidding aside, its nice to hear the positive reports about Peters and especially Chris Evans. It seems like the new pattern is very clear... Athletes
My initial reaction to these offers to unranked or lower ranked athletes for the 2016 class was "are there really that many sleepers in this years class? Sure, 2017 is a whole different story, but there seem to be a lot of offers (and a couple commits) for 2016 to guys that don't have many major offers.
BUT, that's an emotional reaction, so to look at it rationally, the default has to be to trust the coaches, especially these coaches.
You figure worst case on these kids is that they have the desire and drive but not quite the talent so they end up being productive depth players and starters by the end of their careers while also creating relationships and building pipelines into talent-rich places that Michigan hasn't really recruited that heavily in the past.
I think it's an entirely rational reaction. And so is trusting this coaching staff, given their track record of success.
Seems like there are a ton of good reasons for these camps. And Harbaugh taking overlooked prospects seems like a big one. One of the big arguments from the SEC is that Michigan could steal top prospects. Seems like it is a hard argument if he is also picking up talent that was overlooked by the Southern Schools.
I'm actually suprised that Harbaugh isn't given the benefit of the doubt when evaluating talent. He and most of his staff spent a lot of time succesfully in the NFL, in which they had to evaluate talent. I have a hard time believing they are the type that would settle with anyone.
I'm looking forward to adding more speed to the field.
for Miramar H.S... Sounds to me like he has plenty of room to go up in the rankings, and I would probably attribute his low ranking to scouts giving more attention to older recruits, as Miramar usually has a half dozen high level D1 recruits at 1 time.
...it's worth noting that Harbaugh's first 1 1/2 recruiting classes ('07 and '08) at Stanford included the following guys:
Coby Fleener, three-star recruit, eventually the 34th pick in the draft;
Owen Marecic, two-star recruit, a two-way starter at Stanford;
David DeCastro, three-star recruit, eventually the 24th pick in the draft;
Jonathan Martin, three-star recruit, eventually the 42 pick in the draft;
Chase Thomas, three-star recruit, a Sporting News All American his junior year.
But remember that Rodriguez's first class ('08) included Denard, Lewan, Schofield, Gallon, Toussaint, Roh, etc. In terms of providing NFL-caliber talent and all-conference caliber players - Rodriguez probably outperformed Harbaugh. On the field, obviously, this was not the case.
So yeah, Harbaugh can unearth hidden talent but I think the concern many here are having is that at Michigan you don't have to 'unearth' anything.
I liked Toussaint and Roh, but let's be honest - if you're not a Michigan fan or a hardcore recruiting guy, you probably don't know who those guys are. I'm guessing Stanford has some equivalents to Roh and Toussaint that weren't mentioned above, simply because we don't pay a lot of attention to Stanford, their recruiting, and their UDFA products.
The top 5 Michigan guys (from one class) are probably more impressive than the top 5 Stanford guys. I just included others who are in the same ballpark as the Stanford guys mentioned above.
Toussaint rushed for 1,000 yards and is playing a bit in the NFL. Roh was a 2nd team all-conference player, as you know. They aren't studs but they reflect the kind of production you can get from mid to upper level 4-stars without really having to be a talent identification savant.
Lewan, Schofield and Denard match with that group, the rest......not so much. I know the point you're trying to make but that group from Stanford on the whole was more impressive than the Michigan group. Hopefully some of that magic rubs off here as well, but if comparing results it's hard to say the Michigan group was better.
but keep in mind, I'm only taking one of Rodriguez's class and the above spans two classes for Stanford so it's not exactly apples to apples.
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We've seen Carr, Rodriguez, and Hoke all recruit at (more or less) the same level. We are talking about a program whose multi-year average is between #5 (ceiling) and #15 (floor). I think we all agree Harbaugh isn't going to do worse unless he ignores ratings completely (not an invalid approach) or loses a bunch of games.
Michigan could hire the Gameday Crew to be their head coaches and they'd still pull in a well regarded class.
why does everyone care where players get drafted? there are plenty of players who were damn good in college football who never even got drafted. I couldnt care less where our players get drafted, i want them to be good players while they are here
2008 class included Griff Whalen as a preferred walk-on. Played as a true freshman and later led team in receiving yards. He has played the last two years with Indianapolis Colts.
It's also just plain stupid.
When Rich Rod was trying to recruit, "Michigan Men" were telling HS coaches not to send their players to Michigan. Now that Harbaugh is here, there is no bullshit going on behind the scenes. Everyone is pulling in the same direction.
I still prefer the spread, but if Michigan is going to have a "pro offense," Harbaugh is going about it the right way. Having people with NFL experience and marketing Michigan as a recruit's best path to the NFL while simultaneously preaching the importance of an education is pretty much "checking all the boxes" with recruits and parents.
I think it is probable that coaches with NFL experience are more qualified to ultimately identify and project talent than those who don't. If Michigan looks like Stanford did under Harbaugh, we are all going to be very happy.
Even those who felt RR failed miserably at Michigan (including...me) understand that RR actually recruited pretty well. It was his player retention that was so terrible. USC sanction-level terrible.
Rodriguez did recruit pretty well - he just didn't recruit very well FOR BRADY HOKE's Michigan football team. You wonder what could have been with somebody like Josh Furman if Rodriguez had had his defensive coaching staff developing the talent they got like they should have sans disfunction.
But there isn't much room for this sort of nuance in the discussion and most of the narrative tends toward Rich Rod's terrible recruiting tanking things for Hoke. The 2010 class didn't perform for Hoke therefore Rodriguez sucked at recruiting. IMO, that's not really true.
Attrition for a large variety of reasons is why the class failed, which for many comes down to insufficient vetting, whether they were a good fit for Brady Hoke is immaterial next to the fact that so few even stuck around and the ONE offensive lineman in it had to medically retire. To add to that, I'm not convinced Rodriguez's staff would have figured out what to do with Furman either.
I think this is a discussion we've had before on TTB, but you can't really separate recruiting and player development. If you get a stud high school athlete but can't turn him into anything more than a third-stringer in college, you haven't done a good job of recruiting. The point of recruiting is to turn those athletes into good college players.
Rich Rodriguez does not get any favor for recruiting Justin Turner, Cullen Christian, and Demar Dorsey, for example. Two of them never played at all, and one of them was bad and then transferred after a year to places where he was also ineffective.
Rich Rodriguez didn't recruit well for Rich Rodriguez's own football team, either. First of all, the same reasons apply as above. But secondly, Michigan got some stars (Denard Robinson, Taylor Lewan, Jake Ryan) and obviously some solid contributors (Roh, Omameh, etc.), but there were lots and lots and lots of flops. For every Josh Furman, there are five guys like Ken Wilkins, Antonio Kinard, D.J. Williamson, Terrence Talbott, and Jordan Paskorz.
and dont care
Which is why you can't ignore the fact that Rodriguez didn't get a chance to develop the players he recruited. If you are going to be patient with Hoke and want to give him 3 years or more to develop an OL - you have to apply the same slack for Rodriguez.
That's kind of a different topic. But yeah, I think if you're not going to hire a homerun coach, then you stick with Rodriguez. Harbaugh or Miles would have counted as homerun coaches after Rodriguez. Hoke did not.
Josh Furman was a good recruit - a talented recruit and a good productive football player - just not at Michigan under Brady Hoke. There easily could have been others if Rodriguez got 5 or 6 years. I'm not saying DJ Williamson is a good player and obviously Rodriguez did have a lot of busts, but swinging for the fences is a defendable strategy. I don't think Rodriguez cared too much (nor did it cost the football program much in real terms) to have guys in the recruiting class who immediatly skipped out. Just another recruit to take in the next class and try again.
I'm not looking to rehash the Rodriguez arguments all over again - fair or not, he failed at Michigan. But if you look at the talent that someone who everyone thinks stunk at recruiting (Rodriguez) and compare them to someone who everyone thinks is awesome at identifying talent (Harbaugh) they are actually pretty darn similar because Rodriguez grabbed higher rated guys. He got those higher rated guys because of Michigan - not because of his system or his winning personality. Harbaugh didn't grab better talent, he just coached better.
So Harbaugh outrecruited Rodriguez given the context (Michigan vs Stanford) and outcoached him on the field - but he didn't have better talent necessairly in aggregate.
Our hope is that Harbaugh gets better talent at Michigan and produces even better results than he had at Stanford. We had the same hope for Rodriguez coming over from WVU.
I think it's fair to want Harbaugh to do better (rankings wise) than he did at Stanford - which he will, because this is Michigan. The question is if we should care (or not) if he does better (rankings wise) than Hoke and Rodriguez did. I think you can easily argue either side, but my personal opinion is to trust this coaching staff -- they've earned it IMO. Still you have to acknowledge the risk of recruiting at an MSU level instead of a ND/OSU level (which is absolutely attainable for UofM).
I was wondering if you look at tape only for UM offers? The reason I ask is there is a local kid where I'm at in Ohio that is a 3* 2016 OLB recruit. He doesn't have and apparently won't be getting an osu offer. His name is Ethan Tucky. He's a legit 6'2" 225 lbs and extremely fast - I believe he just took 6th in the 200m in Division I state finals. Claims a 4.5 which is probably closer to the truth than not.
Anyway, I'm wondering if you've heard of him and maybe can shed light on why we are not interested. I watched one of his games and when he was in on defense, he absolutely dominated.
This probably isn't the time or place to ask these questions, but I appreciate your insight and I always look for your comments on recruits.
I think for a lot of rival fans and a few of ours, it's easy to be distracted by all the publicity and noise surrounding Harbaugh and forget the most important thing: He is a HELL of a football coach who has won everywhere he's been. He knows talent, hires great people, inspires loyalty, and can flat out teach the game of football.
Until it's proven that these guys can't play and Harbaugh has suddenly forgotten how to do all the things that have made him so successful, I will rejoice at every commit and assume we found a gem in the weeds. I would rather have 25 5-stars, but until then I will trust Harbaugh. All the other stuff is just noise-he could take his pants off instead of his shirt in the next camp for all I care.
〽️ @CoachJim4UM pic.twitter.com/Z2wa4Vtyj6
— Pop (@NaseirUpshur) June 8, 2015
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UNIFORMZ!
People said the same thing about trusting the coaches for RR and Hoke. Many of those guys (especially the RR ones) did not pan out.
I think Ace has the better take, which is that we have 7 months left and the coaches seem to want specific players more than others (and don't give a damn about *'s). I'd also add that the 2* guys will be 3 or 4* in the next 7 months. It's like Kingston Davis. He adds a Florida offer and suddenly looks a lot better. What happens when he lands another big SEC offer? He's a 4*
The trust one can logically place in Harbaugh and Co vs. Hoke and Co or even RR and Co is incomparable. Past success, experience, AD support/resources all make comparisons unbalanced from the jump. Every bit of this program is different from where it was in 2008 and 2011.
and I know that every meal that hits the table is going to be delicious, and she's going to know it.
things my dad taught me...
So...
With 10 players now invited, it’s going to be very difficult for the Elite 11 staff to decide on the remaining eight players
The Elite 11 has 18 participants?
sometimes a couple more.
They do the regional events and invite their selected players to the Elite 11 competition which is like 3-4 and coincides I think with The Opening. During those few days of evaluations the Elite 11 crew pick their final 11 QBs from the group there and call them the "Eiite 11."
It's a fancy title but mostly a crapshoot it sounds like. Getting there is more of an honor than winning probably since it seems Trent Dilfer likes to play favorites and awards players for "competing" more than just doing well. I can't remember all the names, but one of his favorite guys in 2012 (Asiantii Woulard) was awful the entire day, so they gave him one last chance at a 2 minute drill that he did well in so he got day MVP and then overall. They rewarded a guy also one year for playing hurt; he wasn't great but showed grit so he gets props over better players. And I think it was even Wilton Speight complaining when he did it that in of the drills he got like 2 reps when other players got a whole bunch.
You would think those from Big Ten country (14 teams) would totally get that 11=18.
/s
Elite 2017 WR @iamDG7 tells @joshnewberg247 that Jim Harbaugh's energy carried today's camp: http://t.co/iVTFy4hUre pic.twitter.com/A1NZSaKp1b
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) June 6, 2015
I admit to being a stargazer, but I still don't understand the concern. The 2012 class was ranked #6 had 14 four-stars and 11 three-stars. This class has 5 four-stars and 5 three-stars. The ratio is very similar.
It's Harbaugh so we should have 24 5* and maybe 1 4* at worst.
Yep. Expectations were out of line (every 5 star in America will go Harbaugh!!!!!! circa Jan 2015) and reality is most 17 year olds have a "lifetime" of 8 years old to 17 years old or 9 years. UM has mostly been mediocre in that time. Michigan is a brand to their parents - not them. Harbaugh is injecting life and can sell the NFl angle with the position coaches.
As I said in another post it's going to be very interesting to (a) watch this class develop and (b) watch the 2017s to see if harbaugh replicates the 2016 pattern of a barbell approach. He will have more time to build relationships in 2017 but something tells me he is still going to go offer 5-6 kids in 2017 that on first glance we go huh?
I like to think of it as a moneyball approach. Find talent you like that maybe hasn't bloomed all the way yet or hasn't gotten a ton of attention and then use it to either fill out the depth chart or get a player who can use their one or two A+ attributes to the best use. At the same time, it's not like the staff is giving up on the superstars(Caleb Kelly and Rashan Gary appear to be the most prominent mentions).
So I'm perfectly comfortable with this approach as allows for some growth on the team, as well as flexibility that I'm not sure we saw as much of under Hoke.
High School kids don't really know Michigan, since it has been 8 years (minus the 2011 team) where Michigan was highly ranked! I'm sure once Harbaugh starts winning he will get the cream of the crop. But I trust JH and his coaches to evaluate players and make offers, even if the kids are 2 and 3 stars. I think he is building depth and wanting kids to develop through his system so they're are great RS juniors and RS seniors. I don't really care what the fans from other schools are saying about our low star recruits.
"It's a lock if you got the socks"?
Get the hello post ready.
There's no evidence that the final rankings are any better (or worse) than the preliminary rankings (AFAIK). In basketball we know the preseason rankings are a better indicator of tournament success than the pre-tournament ranks.
Rankings are good indicators of success, but we don't know if adjustments (such as the inevitable ones that come with a 2-star committing to Michigan) are. We don't know if Ulazio (a late addition) is any better or worse than Johnson (an early addition). You can just as easily argue the senior year film makes him a better prospect despite his low rankings.
What we do know is that recruiting rankings have zero direct effect on a players on-field ability. Johnson is who he is. If Rivals makes him a 1 star tomorrow or a 5 star tomorrow it doesn't change the player that he is. Getting excited about this kind of thing (adjustments) may matter for recruiting rankings but not on the field.
If anything, I'd rather a 2-star M commit stay that way and brings a big chip on his shoulder when he gets to campus.
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