Livers Enters Name Into Draft, Return Option Open
Isaiah Livers will go through the draft process, whatever that looks like this year:
〽️ NEWS!
— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) March 30, 2020
Isaiah Livers announced he will apply for early entry for 2020 NBA Draft. He intends to seek assistance from agent & go through evaluation process before making a final decision on foregoing his senior season
Release | https://t.co/IxKmjeKMhL
#GoBlue ➡️ #ProBlue pic.twitter.com/5ZLYQY54SA
I have to admit that I rarely read these things since they're all boilerplate but the phrasing of this one is less "I'm checking out my options" and more "goodbye." We'll see what kind of feedback he gets and how eager he is to pull the trigger.
[After THE JUMP: how likely is that?]
The feedback is unlikely to be a slam dunk for departure. Livers does not appear on Sam Vecenie's latest mock draft and is #81 in his top 100. He's #100 in the DraftExpress/ESPN list. And with coronavirus shutting everything down there's no timeline for an NBA season, let alone a draft process or a draft.
The most likely outcome is that the NBA admits the obvious and cancels the rest of the season in the near future—the USA's patchwork system of giving a crap or not ain't gonna cut it for a resumption soon—and that the draft goes on more or less as per usual, but without the predraft evaluation stuff. That would mean there's little opportunity for Livers to change the general opinion on him; if he stayed in he'd either have a promise from a particular team that they'd take him in the second round or he'd be okay with going undrafted.
Both of those sound pretty unlikely but last year the Warriors picked Poole in the first round out of nowhere and Iggy Brazdeikis decided on a certain second-round selection. And the letter makes it sound like Livers would rather go. But… I mean… it makes sense to return? Right? I no longer know what is going on with these things. Livers seems like the kind of guy who would benefit from a return even via the strictest money-rules-everything cynicism lens possible.
It would be okay though. If Livers does end up staying in Michigan would have Brandon Johns and (probably) Isaiah Todd at the four next year. Neither brings the A-level shooting Livers does but they compensate in other ways. Johns played pretty well during Livers's various injuries this year; Todd is a Swiss army knife five star who should be approximately what DJ Wilson was during his final season.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
Wish him luck if he goes, but I agree it feels like a year where there is so much uncertainty I'm not sure you want to risk being drafted with little/no pre-draft prep work.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
I don't get it. He wasn't on any of the All Big 10 teams (not even honorable mention) as voted by the coaches, and only made honorable mention for the media. He went 13/4/1 in pts/reb/ast. Granted, the injuries played a huge part in that, but this is clearly a case of drafting on potential.
I'd have to dive into the All Big 10 Teams, but my guess would be 3/4 of those guys won't be drafted. The NBA drafts almost exclusively on potential, most guys only have a single year of college basketball production. The #1 picks in 2016 (Simmons) and 2017 (Fultz) didn't even elevate their teams to an NCAA Tournament.
Livers has to weigh how much he could elevate his draft status vs. being a year older/losing a year of income by staying. I'm not sure if he gets drafted if he goes this year, but I think he could really develop into a very serviceable 3-D NBA type.
I dont know that you should make any evaluations of his season based on All Big Ten teams when he missed so many games due to injury. Hard to get awards for the season if you miss a lot of conference games.
He didn't end up on any lists because he only played about half the conference season and those lists are based more on college production than NBA potential and fit.
Livers has the potential to be a very good NBA 3 and D guy. He's a better pro prospect than Cassius Winston and maybe Luka Garza who were both first team guys.
Had he played a full, healthy season this year, leaving would not have surprised me. I would be a bit surprised now if he stays in the draft because he kind of left some questions unanswered (one of them being his ability to stay healthy).
March 30th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
I think he is better than the 81st player. I think if it weren't for the injury he would be drafted higher than Iggy or Poole.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Do they ever come back? My memory isn’t great, but it seems like once they go in, they stay in. And we all think it’s a bad idea only to see Jamal Crawford or DJ Wilson or Jordan Poole go in the first round. Wish he could have finished on a higher note this year.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
The only one who I can remember entering, but coming back was Moe Wagner. I'm really hopeful Franz does the same
Burke came back. So did GR3 and Hardaway Jr
Right, but that was before they allowed you to get evaluated by scouts and the league. Mo is the only one I can remember who entered their name to get evaluated, then decided to return.
Burke, GR3, and Hardaway all had to decide whether or not to go and it was a final decision as soon as they made it. There was not going back like there is now
Charles "Charlie" Matthews
March 30th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
My thought isn't "Will he be a first rounder", but "How much can he improve his draft stock by coming back". The main drawback to his game for the next level is being a shot creator. And that probably won't improve a great deal between his junior and senior years. And how many pick-and-roll or iso plays would he get to display it anyway?
He definitely has a pro career ahead of him, either here or overseas. So the question is does he want to start that journey now? Or come back, get his degree, and take a shot moving into the first round.
My sense is that he won't be anymore NBA-ready next year than he is now. But the general unknown of the current situation would make me more inclined to stay I think. Who knows which leagues will even start up on time next year? But it will be interesting to see how this plays out with him.
My thoughts exactly. The only thing he needs to improve on is something he won't be asked to do at the next level anyway. He's a 3-and-D player. He will not be required to drive the ball much, if at all. There is nothing left for him to improve on.
Agreed. Same thing was true about Cassius Winston last year. I just don't see Juwan being the kind of guy to try and convince guys to come back, unlike Izzo who probably threatens to never invite you back to a team reunion if you leave early.
All good thoughts, and probably right that he isn't going to get a lot better. So then he needs to decide which path he'd rather take:
- Stay as a senior, be the team leader and captain, lead a talented team on a run for some banners, show he's healthy and can demonstrate the 3 and D parts of his game the NBA will want.
- Be comfortable that you're likely a fringe prospect and will spend the next year in the G-league or over-seas, making some money but not a lot while trying to find a way into the NBA.
- Hope you have a DJ/Poole surprise pick in the draft and can latch on to a team with a solid contract even though you're probably more like Matthews (role player with injury concerns) than those guys (lottery tickets that might reach their full potential).
Yep. One comment is see often with Livers on Michigan boards is that he's "not a great athlete". When he was hampered with injury this season, sure he was a bit slow. But when he's healthy it seems to me that for his position he has at least average athleticism if not a little above average.
I absolutely think he can stick in the NBA in the right situation, assuming his shooting translates.
This is his quote " I might be able to reach my goal of playing professional basketball." He only references the NBA draft, not playing in the NBA. While I'm sure his dream is to play in the NBA, he might have already accepted the reality of having to go overseas to accomplish that dream and that he can get more out of playing there than at UM. It definitely has the feel of goodbye as Brian mentions.
I feel like the general unknown of the current situation would provide a little extra nudge for guys to leave than under normal circumstances.
I think you're correct that there is a chance leagues won't start up next year. In which case, wouldn't you rather try to make a team and get a contract over the summer instead of stay in school and risk the season not happening and thus wasting a year not making money OR proving yourself?
The NBA will almost certainly play the season next year, even if it has to be without fans (they're not gonna put 20,000 screaming fans in one building without a vaccine for this thing). What a lot of leagues are talking about is just having all teams in one location and playing round robin games. Those can at least be televised and the league can make tv money.
College would never do that though since any semblance of being a student is then lost. So would the conferences have teams travel to play in empty arenas? Maybe, but that's more up in the air than an NBA season.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
Josh Henschke just clarified that Livers actually HAS NOT hired an agent
March 30th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
Hope he comes back. But if he does go, best of luck to him. He shall always be remembered for the shot he hit against Houston.
That was Jordan Poole... unless you're talking about a shot he made before the end of the game? I didn't watch most of it to be honest.
He's making fun of the announcer (name escapes me) who kept mistakenly saying this season that Livers hit that shot bc he and Poole have similar hair and he was unprepared and can't tell the two apart apparently.
Tim Brando I think it was
March 30th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
The announcer is Brad Nessler. I am sure because I recognize the hair and the suit.
Nessler was on the call for the Houston game. He's talking about this past season and how Brando mentioned, I believe more than once, that Livers hit a buzzer beater against Houston.
They break the record of early entries nearly every year because the landscape has changed fairly dramatically:
- The NBA ecosystem now welcomes far more rookies than available draft selections
- Rookie salary structures are such that if you go in the 2nd or UDFA and stick you'll likely out-earn back half first-rounders in the early years of your career
- More opportunity (G League growth as viable destination, 2-way contracts, more $$$) for fringe roster guys than ever before
- Very few guys improve their stock in any meaningful way in a 4th year
Also, considering the talent that is coming here next year (Christopher or not (but hopefully, yes)), Livers may think that he won't have as many chances to showcase what he can do. Remember, there's only one ball. So, he might think that he's maxed out on opportunities here and the NBA is the logical next step.
The only other options are to either be a potential third or fourth banana or take a grad transfer fifth year, but that would only hinder his NBA prospects.
The thing Livers can improve most would be helped by having all of those young talented guys around. He's never been seen as the leader of the team, and he would most definitely be that next year. If he can show NBA teams what he can be surrounded by other NBA talent instead of when he's the only shooter on the floor, that could go a long ways in getting him into the first round.
Sounds like wishful thinking. Of course "leadership skills" sounds great, but they're not looking for team captains. They'd take a young, inexperienced guy who can jump out of the gym in a heartbeat.
He doesn't need the ball because he'd only be a 3 and D guy in the NBA. All the NBA cares about for him is: 1) can you shoot from NBA distance 2) can you defend NBA wings and switch ball screens and 3) can you stay healthy?
The answers to 1 and 2 are "probably". The reason to come back, IMO would be to show that the answer to number 3 is "yes" but then he runs the risk of turning it into a "no" so it might be better to keep it at "maybe".
Really would want him to come back, but honestly it's a move that makes sense for him if his goal is to be drafted as high as possible in the league.
A few factors favorable to him declaring:
- This draft class has been notoriously weak. All the top guys have been on bad teams (Anthony on UNC, Edwards on UGA), not played (Wiseman at Memphis) or been overshadowed overseas (Ball and Hampton). This means that guys who can be strong role players should increase in value, like Livers.
- The NBA has a huge bias towards drafting younger guys, so every year you stay without taking monumental leaps hurts your value.
- Livers has NBA game right now. He's a plus shooter, an able wing defender and a steady guy you can trust on the floor. Much more finished product than Jordan Poole was when he came out. His player archetype is the exact thing NBA teams want on their bench, ala Robert Covington or Jae Crowder.
Absolutely love his play as a Wolverine and once again, him coming back would be enormous for the team. When he was injured, you could tell that the team missed his all-round skillset. Still, regardless of his decision, I'm wishing the best of success for him. He's improved massively at Michigan, and hopefully he'll continue to do so where ever he ends up.
Any chance some of these guys that are weighing a senior year return are also considering the possibility that the 2020-2021 season could be compromised (shortened, or outright cancelled) due to COVID-19, thus (a) hampering their ability to showcase an improvement and (b) creating an even more uncertain 2021 NBA Draft?
I'm not reading the same tea leaves as Brian with that release. I thought it was a bit more hesitant than Iggy's or Poole's last year (or at least how I recall them). He mentions "before making a final decision" and doesn't mention how excited he is about pursuing the NBA, so he's leaving the door open. Maybe Brian is hearing additional scuttlebutt that leads him to think Livers is gone?
Ugh. This is not a criticism of Livers, but I hate that the current situation is that guys so often leave because they look like they could be NBA players in a year.
Big Mistake
March 31st, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^
There's no downside to him declaring and getting the information and doing whatever pre-draft evaluation stuff actually happens this year. He's of a type the NBA values highly (can shoot, can guard multiple positions pretty well), if he'd been healthy all year he'd have almost certainly played himself into being gone to the draft. He owes it to himself to at least get the information to make an informed decision.
March 31st, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
I'm kind of a broken record on this but for some it is how much you enjoy college life and all that goes with it. Do you like or not hate at least going to classes? Do you love college basketball and the BT tourney and NCAA's. What is a senior season with your teammates worth and in Liver's case, being a star on a contending team worth?
A guy who was an absolute top tier NBA prospect, Tim Duncan, weighed that and went back for his senior season and he would have been a top choice as a junior.
Livers is not on the NBA radar to be drafted (if we can believe all of the "expert" projections). Does being paid to play in Europe appeal? In this age of turmoil over there, troubled governments, terrorism, and now the coronavirus, I would think Europe is a lot more dicey.
I think Cassius Winston looked at all of this last year, he was not likely to be a first rounder last year and maybe not a second rounder. He isn't this year either but he got a chance to be a star in college basketball one more time.
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