THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#27 Michigan (19-14, 11-9 Big Ten) vs #11 Villanova (28-7, 16-4 Big East)
WHERE	Ann Arbor Elder Law Center San Antonio, TX
WHEN	7:29 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: NOVA -5 Torvik: NOVA -4
TELEVISION	TBS

THE OVERVIEW

A second consecutive So We Meet Again in the NCAA tournament, this one against 2018 National Championship Game opponent Villanova. 'Nova remains 'Nova, a crew of snipers with big guards and relatively small bigs that switches everything and finds buckets and buckets of open shots.

The Wildcats did not win the Big East title because Providence's extreme luck extended to COVID cancellations that saw them finish 14-3, which is fractionally better than 16-4, but they are the conference's best team by some distance. In the nonconference they have an 18-point neutral court win over the Tennessee team Michigan just beat and a 14-point win against Kenpom #70 Syracuse. On the other side of the ledger they have an OT loss at UCLA, a hammering at Baylor, and a six-point loss to Purdue.

Seton Hall is another common opponent in addition to Tennessee and Purdue; Villanova swept the season series with identical 73-67 wins, although Ike Obiagu didn't play in the first one.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Devante' Jones has been practicing so we slot him back into the starting lineup.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Jordan Longino missed the first weekend with a knee injury that was supposedly day-to-day and may or may not be available. Perhaps worth noting that Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, the most center-like of all Villanova players, was forced to medically retire after two seasons battling injuries.

THE THEM

Few teams in college basketball are as consistently themselves as Villanova, so you can just mentally pencil in the 2018 title game team here, give or take some NBA upside.

Center Eric Dixon is the only vaguely post-shaped guy on the roster at 6'8", 255. Dixon almost exclusively operates inside the arc, which will be of some relief to Michigan fans extrapolating Colorado State's Dischon Thomas to this game since Dixon features a terrifying 52% clip from deep. That clip is based on less than one shot per game, though: he's 16/31 on the season. It is of course possible that Nova decides the thing they want to do is make Dickinson defend threes but that would be a departure. They've played Purdue and OSU, both Big Ten teams featuring relatively immobile posts, and Dixon's launched a total of three treys in those two games.

Instead Dixon operates as a traditional big, and incredibly well. He's shooting 57% on post ups this year, which are over a third of his possessions used, and checks in at the 92nd percentile. He does not take jumpers; everything is at the rim.

The obvious question, then, is if Dickinson's size overwhelms a guy who is extremely skilled but also almost a half-foot shorter. I tentatively suggest the answer to this is "yes." Dixon's shooting craters to 41% in top 50 matchups—and since Villanova had 14 of those this year that's a pretty robust sample. In particular, games against familiar foes with size advantages seem to shut Dixon off. He was 4/11 from two against UCLA (which features Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson), 3/9 against Tennessee, 1/2 against Purdue, and 3/7 against OSU. In two games against Seton Hall he was 5/14. On the season he's shooting just 54% at the rim, which is more like undersized guard territory than burly center territory. Straight up post D should do.

Dixon has outstanding OREB numbers that do stand up in Tier A games; he's a 83% shooter from the line; he does not affect many shots. He was 73rd percentile as a post defender, which is squarely in "not enough" territory against Dickinson, particularly considering the size differential.

[villanova.com]

Two 6'7" wing types round out the Villanova front court. Jermaine Samuels is slightly burlier and more important to the offense. He operates mostly as a spot-up shooter from three, post-up threat, and roll guy. The shooting is bleah: almost all of his jumpers are from three, where he hits 27%. He's middling in as a post-up guy and roll threat, and you'd think Diabate would be able to dissuade those shots. He is another dangerous offensive rebounder, particularly for his size.

Samuels is a guy you can float off of; his shooting does not improve when he doesn't get a contest. Allowing a ~30% three point shooter open looks is a viable strategy when your defense has to give something up, as Michigan demonstrated against Tennessee. Samuels looks like the best option to scramble from—and not back to—when things get dicey.

Note that Dixon only plays about 60% of Villanova minutes, so Samuels is the center-type person for almost half the game.

Brandon Slater is the other wing. He shoots 63/34/88 from the floor on low usage. He's most efficient running pick and roll and getting to the basket himself; his passes out of PNR don't generally lead to great shots. He's one of those guys who is efficient largely because he defers the tough stuff to his teammates. But when he gets an opportunity he's the best guy on the team at the rim (70%):

“His slashing ability is pretty incredible,” Samuels said. “I don’t think a lot of people understand how much length he has. It’s a huge factor in his game and it’s implemented at both ends of the court."

He's also a defensive pest with that length, which helps Villanova switch. Frankie Collins can probably dust him but Devante' Jones and Eli Brooks getting matched against him is probably not an exploitable mismatch unless Power Mushroom Eli continues from the Tennessee game.

Combo guard Justin Moore spends most of his time running PNR and spotting up, with a fair bit of posting up—remember that Villanova likes to post their big guards. He is a adequate-to-good at the first two but post ups have not gone well; overall he's shooting a middling 45/35/74. When you drill down you discover something, though: Moore absolutely cannot be left. He's shooting 54% on open catch and shoot threes.

Get him off the dribble and he's fine—not great, fine. His 53% clip at the rim isn't great, either, though he is generating almost all of his own twos. That's a theme with this Villanova backcourt. They're deadly shooters but anything at the rim that is reasonably contested is a win for the defense.

Finally, point guard Collin Gillespie has come a long way since he didn't take a shot from the floor in the 2018 title game. First he was Just A Shooter, then he evolved into a fully-fledged star point guard. His shooting does remain the feature attraction. Gillespie is at 48/42/90 on the season and almost half of his threes are unassisted. Like Moore he is lethally efficient if he's allowed an open shot. He's at 57%(!!!) on unguarded catch and shoot threes. He's a 93rd percentile option off the dribble, too, but the gap between C+S jumpers and off the dribble stuff is a whopping 0.5 PPP. Even if Gillespie is a superior pull-up option there is a massive difference if you contest his shots.

Gillespie is also a 90th percentile option while running PNR, again because he can just pull up. His lone weakness on offense is at the rim, where he's shooting 50%. A contested Gillespie layup is a far worse option for Villanova than an open three.

Gillespie also posts up, albeit far less often than Moore. Like Dixon shooting threes this is an incredibly efficient way to do offense for Nova that results in a FGA about once per game. Gillespie is far more likely to use the post-up as a decoy to get a teammate an open shot.

Villanova follows the Craig Ross roster construction philosophy by having exactly one meaningful bench player:

• Bench player of import is 6'4" shooting guard Caleb Daniels, who is in his second year at Nova after transferring from Tulsa. Daniels plays 60% of Nova minutes and operates as the usual Not Just A Shooter Villanova guard. On the year he's hitting 51/40/86 from the field. He's not much of a playmaker and his TO are is a titch high, but otherwise he might be the sixth man of the year in college basketball.
• Jordan Longino may or may not be available, as mentioned above. If available he's shooting 35/31 on the season with a TO rate near 30.
• Juniors Chris Archidiacono and Bryan Antoine will get brief cameos; both guys are averaging 4 MPG over the last five. Archiacono will hurl himself at the basket to either get a foul or a turnover; Antoine is strictly just a shooter. Neither guy is shooting it well at all.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overwhelming nowhere but good many places and bad nowhere:

The main drill-down stat that pops out is a combination of many threes launched by opponents (Nova is 321st at preventing them) and very few of those going down (they're 38th at defending them). Usually I would point a finger at this and say this means they're not as good as they look statistically, but this is a situation where Villanova's three point defense is probably real. The Wildcats probably switch 1-5 more than any team in the country:

Villanova’s switch-everything ball screen defense forcing opponents into isolations: pic.twitter.com/9YQEvKm3rv

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 21, 2022

And the resulting quality of look is not good:

 

You probably looked at Michigan on this chart and silently clenched your hands as you thought back to those nights where Michigan went 3/24 or whatever, but the point here is that Nova generally does not give up many open looks.

Other drill-down items of note: Nova shoots 83% as a team from the free throw line, #1 nationally. They don't get to the line a ton but when they do it's not good. They launch a ton of threes, as per usual. And they're one of the slowest teams in the country on offense. This is in part because of a low TO rate; it is also because just 9% of their possessions are in transition.

THE KEYS

[Zoey Holmstrom]

Punish switches. If Villanova is going to switch there are going to be guards on Dickinson and Diabate, and there should be dunks. Villanova is going to double, I'd imagine, but I'd rather have Dickinson take a short hook that's virtually uncontested than rely on Michigan's wandering three-point shooting. Catches should be at the basket; dribbles should be optional. Post, repost, repost again, and repost again. Dickinson should be making the "too small" indicator every minute.

High-low. Nova does not have the size to contest Dickinson's passing and Diabate's going to get a wing for the whole game. One way to nerf Villanova digging at the post is to change the post entry angle and shorten the pass by using high-low sets, which we saw a little of in the first weekend. With almost a week to prepare this could be the tactical adjustment du jour.

Live with guards posting up. One item that leapt out from the Purdue game was guard post-ups drawing a ton of attention and leading to open threes. Given the size differential in Nova's favor I'd imagine we see those back-downs become a major part of the offense. And… ok. Moore is not good at them; Gillespie is but I'd rather live with Gillespie trying to win the game with his back to the basket than open Nova threes.

[Zoey Holmstrom]

Frankie factor. Devante' Jones is practicing and is going to start in this game. I would hope we see some early Collins minutes to explore two things: can he get in Gillespie's face enough to disrupt the Nova offense and can he get to the rack against a team without a rim protector? The former is particularly important since Gillespie is lethally efficient off the bounce from three.

Terrance time. Caleb Houstan's leash should be shorter in this game after Terrance Williams came off the bench to spark Michigan in the Sweet 16. If Houstan's hitting early, fine. If he's headed for another bagel Michigan can't afford to have him out there for 35 minutes.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Villanova by 5.