2022 ncaa tournament

3/24/2022 – Michigan 55, Villanova 63 – 19-15, 11-9 Big Ten, Season Over

This is not going to be a romantic post about the end of a season. Last year, yes, romance abounds. This year it's time to say good job making the best out of a bad situation and start speculating about the future. Because, well, sometimes the bear eats you:

Tonight was Michigan's worst 2-point field-goal percentage (34.9 percent) since Feb. 4, 2020 in a loss to Ohio State. Michigan played 70 games between the two performances.

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) March 25, 2022

The other stat floating around out there was Michigan going 12/29 on dunks and layups. This kind of thing has happened before, but for it to happen against a team with no real shotblocking (and to a team that was 28th in shooting at the rim nationally) is boggling. Much like the early going of the Colorado State game, it felt like every weighted coin flip came out the wrong way. Michigan would put up a shot that rolled around on the rim and faded out; Villanova would do the same and the ball would eventually decide to go in.

There are other things you can point to, of course—a silly foul by Dickinson at the end of the first half that blunted momentum, an inexplicable no call when Devante' Jones got obliterated, a banked-in three—but while those are all factors the lingering bad taste in everyone's mouth will always be about a bunch of bunnies that did not go down.

At least this feels like a spiritually appropriate way to end the season? I included a Shot Quality graph in the preview that indicated Michigan got a ton of open threes and gave up relatively few, and here's a bookend for that:

Some of that is trying to check Johnny Davis with Eli Brooks because you don't have any 6'5" guys but some of that is just shrug-worthy. Michigan finished the season as a 7th percentile team defending pull-ups, and this was an improvement from that point midseason when they were 1st percentile. The whole damn season was getting good shots and losing to bad shots.

Maybe "bad" should get scare quotes in the previous sentence, because this season forces you to reconsider previous fatwas against mid-range jumpers and the role of athleticism in contesting shots. Since you can get a pull-up on just about every possession having an opposition floor that high is devastating, particularly when you're still in the deep 300s when it comes to forcing turnovers. On the other hand, that hideous performance on pull-ups is 0.9 PPP, ie, still not great. Michigan is getting teams to shoot from the right places; they just needed to have a legion of 6'5"-6'9" NBA wing types to maximize their results. Like, you know, last year.

In the end this was a team with significant flaws we glossed over because of the expectation Caleb Houstan would play like a top 10 overall prospect. This was wrong not only because Houstan played like a typical freshman but because it ignored that we weren't just replacing Isaiah Livers but also Franz Wagner and Chaundee Brown. Those guys got replaced by nothing resembling an NBA wing, and since the schedule was stacked back to front with productive wing types the defense went off a cliff.

Even so they improved over the course of the year, battled through the third-toughest schedule in America, made the tourney, made the Sweet 16, and set the table for next season, give or take a lot of knife-edge NBA decisions. Michigan got great shots and forced bad ones, further confirming that Juwan Howard is "that dude," as the children say. Hit the portal and acquire the most Chaundee-like thing you can find and further success beckons.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

A second consecutive So We Meet Again in the NCAA tournament, this one against 2018 National Championship Game opponent Villanova. 'Nova remains 'Nova, a crew of snipers with big guards and relatively small bigs that switches everything and finds buckets and buckets of open shots.

The Wildcats did not win the Big East title because Providence's extreme luck extended to COVID cancellations that saw them finish 14-3, which is fractionally better than 16-4, but they are the conference's best team by some distance. In the nonconference they have an 18-point neutral court win over the Tennessee team Michigan just beat and a 14-point win against Kenpom #70 Syracuse. On the other side of the ledger they have an OT loss at UCLA, a hammering at Baylor, and a six-point loss to Purdue.

Seton Hall is another common opponent in addition to Tennessee and Purdue; Villanova swept the season series with identical 73-67 wins, although Ike Obiagu didn't play in the first one.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Devante' Jones has been practicing so we slot him back into the starting lineup.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Jordan Longino missed the first weekend with a knee injury that was supposedly day-to-day and may or may not be available. Perhaps worth noting that Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, the most center-like of all Villanova players, was forced to medically retire after two seasons battling injuries.

Things discussed:

• Did anyone predict Michigan over Tennessee?
• Colorado State breakdown: after the luck tap ran out Michigan had the Frankie Collins game.
• Tennessee breakdown: Frankie's defense, and Eli Brooks hitting us in the feels. The guy who steps up.
• Also stepping up: Terrance Williams. Find more minutes for him because he's a winner.
• Villanova: All guards. Only one 6'8 guy. They're going to shoot over you. More Frankie?
• Elite 8? Arizona-Houston looks like it's for the championship. Can win those games with ORebs (see: TCU).
• SEC overrated: Roll the ball out league looks so bad in the tourney.
• NCAA Hockey Tourney preview.