Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings

While we don't know precisely how the point guard and wing rotation is going to shake out, the center position is the spot with the most uncertainty on the roster after the departures of Jon Teske and Colin Castleton. Juwan Howard has three viable options at his disposal, a luxury in college basketball.

There's the hard-working redshirt senior known as Big Country, the athletic power forward slash small-ball center, and the talented freshman ent. I'm listing them below in order of projected minutes at any position, which puts the multi-position player out in front, but they all should be rotation players who get their chance to shine at one point or another.

#23 Brandon Johns Jr.

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'8/240
Key Counting Stats: 19.6 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 60%/35%/64% (2P/3P/FT)
Key Advanced Stats: 15.2% usage, 7.4 off. rebound%, 15.2 def. reb.%, 3.3 block%, 41.4 FTRate

Halfway through Brandon Johns' sophomore season, there were legitimate concerns about whether he'd stick in Michigan's rotation. He'd rebound and block shots, but his shot wasn't falling, his confidence waned, and he looked lost on the court. There were games when he seemingly wouldn't even look at the basket.

The proverbial light bulb came on in late January. Generally playing as the #4 offensive option, Johns still had up and down statistical performances, but there were a lot more ups and he continued to contribute when he wasn't scoring. He had some big games down the stretch:

• 14 points on 11 shooting possessions, five offensive rebounds vs. Penn State
• 16- and 20-point performances in back-to-back games against Nebraska and Rutgers, respectively
• 14 points, 3/3 three-pointers, five boards, a block, and a steal to win KenPom MVP against Indiana

His rough outing in his hometown of East Lansing was a personal low point. The return game against MSU in Ann Arbor provided some redemption—he had seven points on six shots, five rebounds, and two blocks in only 19 minutes.

[Hit THE JUMP for profiles on Johns, Hunter Dickinson, and Austin Davis.]

Phil Martelli sees a player who's continuing to gain confidence after his strong finish to last season:

He has these spurts like three baskets in four plays. He’s the best offensive rebounder in the group. I would say his comfort and his IQ is much higher than what it was at this time last year. I don’t think he thought he could get it last year and sometimes didn’t give himself that chance. There’s more brightness than there is dimness now in regards to what Brandon can do. He does give you a multiple position guy where he could be a small-ball five man. He could play with Isaiah and, again, he’s banging up against Terrance Williams who has done some really good things.

The small-ball center possibility became a more viable one as last season progressed. It wasn't working early on. Here are Michigan's stats with Johns at center prior to February 1st, per Hoop Lens (body bag games removed):

Even with unsustainable three-point shooting and offensive rebounding propping up an offensive unit that otherwise couldn't shoot, these lineups weren't viable because they hemorrhaged points on defense, letting opponents make over 60% of their two-pointers. 

Then the switch flipped. Lineups Johns at center after February 1st became unsustainably great:

Yeah, yeah, sample size, picking the right spots, outlier shooting percentages, etc. The main takeaway here is that these lineups became usable. That should be more the case this season with an added year of experience for Johns and the help he'll receive from the deep and big group of wings. Howard can still be selective about when to use Johns at center. As an energetic rebounder, switchable defender, effective rim protector, and good-enough outside shooter, Johns fits the mold of a small-ball five, and at a bouncy 6'8/240 he's not overwhelmed physically even by traditional centers.

He's also a matchup problem at the four for opposite reasons; instead of being too quick for college centers, he's too big for college power forwards. UMHoops had this tantalizing note from Friday's scrimmage:

Judging by the box score, Johns played primarily at the four but his team must have played at least seven minutes with either Johns or [Terrence] Williams at the five. He had 14 points and the best plus/minus in the game. He reportedly did a great job of taking advantage of mismatches inside when matched up with either Livers or Brown.

If Johns can hunt mismatches down low as a power forward and stretch defenses thin as a center, he's going to be difficult to keep off the floor at one position or another. While some of this will be matchup-dependent, I wouldn't be surprised if Howard finds that his best lineups utilize Johns at center, and regardless of who starts, that's what we see to close out games. The inclination to start a true center and the presence of Chaundee Brown may squeeze Johns out of the opening lineup; he'll still play starter minutes or close to it.

#1 Hunter Dickinson

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 7'1/255
Recruiting Profile: Four-star, #9 C, #42 overall, Hello post

The biggest news from Michigan's Friday scrimmage was the performance of their biggest player:

There were baskets for both bigs — they combined to go 13-of-19 from the floor — but Dickinson finished with 17 points and two assists and logged an impressive 33 minutes. It’s impressive that Dickinson stayed out of foul trouble and logged that many minutes — both encouraging signs for his ability to make an early impact. Judging by the box score, he pretty clearly outplayed Davis. He also hit a three which is something he showed a lot more of as a senior at DeMatha.

Hunter Dickinson ended up as the headliner of Michigan's 2020 recruiting class, which was a relative disappointment after the Josh Christopher and Isaiah Todd sagas. In almost any other year, fans would be over the moon to have a top-50 center who chose the Wolverines over the likes of Duke, Louisville, and UNC at the top of the class. Standards change quickly; it might mean Dickinson's chance at making an instant impact have gone overlooked.

I might be among the people doing the overlooking. I've said on various podcasts that I expect Dickinson to eventually take the starting job from Austin Davis as the freshman gets used to the rigors of the college game and learns the system. He might have already taken that job. That'd be a great sign for Michigan; while we all love Big Country, there's a lot more upside to explore on both ends of the floor with Dickinson.

As an example of this, here's Matt's scouting report from Dickinson's commitment post, emphasis mine:

Dickinson is a technician in nearly every aspect of the game from 15 feet and in and you can certainly run offense through him in the half court. He has very good touch around the basket for a prospect of his size. His jumphook over the right shoulder is extremely consistent and should be nearly unstoppable at the college level given his sheer size. Hunter consistently bullies defenders by getting into their chest to create space where he converts at the rim with great efficiency. The future Wolverine has good footwork and gets clean looks through multiple pivots and spin-moves to get defenders off-balance as well. He also has a solid midrange game as a pick-and-pop or face-up option that knocks down jumpers from 10-18 feet away.

In addition to his scoring prowess, Dickinson is a great passer that can facilitate extremely well. To put this in context, he may very well be a better passer than a high school Jon Teske. When faced with double-teams, which is often, he finds cutters/shooters with pinpoint passes with relative ease and just looks very comfortable operating as a distributor where his ability to see over the defense aids him greatly.

On the other side of the ball, Hunter offers plus rim protection and does a great job of blocking shots while keeping the ball in play and avoiding fouls. He's certainly not adept at keeping ballhandlers in front of him and generally struggles to move his feet in space. But as a mammoth center, he does a good job of boxing out, is an above average rebounder and will alter a ton of shots.

Now keep in mind that Dickinson started to show consistent three-point range as a senior with a release that's much quicker than, say, Jon Teske's—he should turn into a pick-and-pop threat if he isn't one already. If you haven't watched the video at the top of this section, it may surprise you. 

Dickinson naturally plays with an assertive edge that often needs to be coaxed out of young bigs. While he could've skated through high school ball, even in the competitive DMV area, by relying on his height to let the play come to him, that's not what his tape shows; he works hard for position, seals off defenders, and positions himself to make entry passes easier—and that's all before he gets the ball in his hands. He has a variety of ways to finish and his court vision/passing is advanced for a freshman.

Martelli wants that assertiveness to continue:

Hunter is coming. The first thing that jumps out at you about Hunter is he’s an extraordinary passer. Either from the high post or even from the low post. The last two weeks, Hunter has been able to score some baskets and Hunter, I know him, he would give all the credit in the world to Austin Davis. Because Austin Davis lays it on him every single day. Physically — you say physically, come on, Hunter is 7-foot-2, 267, it’s different. It’s different. Austin is truly country strong and he wears Hunter out. I’m not saying he’s surprised him, he kind of presented Hunter with a real awakening. One of the things that we’re really trying to develop with Hunter is everybody in the world knows you can dunk, you’re 7-foot-2 with long arms. He can dunk. We’re really trying to work on him scoring the ball around the basket, particularly with his right hand and to be more committed to shooting the jumpshot.

On defense, Dickinson projects to be one of the best rim protectors Michigan has had in some time. While he's listed at 7'1 on the official roster, you can see that the team has more recently measured him at 7'2 with a plus wingspan. It's going to be difficult for some players to see past him, let alone get shots over him.

Dickinson isn't an elite athlete; he's not going to stick with perimeter players on switches. That means Michigan will stick to their usual drop coverage when he's in the game, keeping him in the paint while the other four defenders chase and help around him. That should work quite well when the Wolverines aren't facing a true stretch five like Iowa's Luka Garza or Wisconsin's center duo; as I've discussed ad nauseam, this team has a lot of long, athletic, switchable defenders to put around Dickinson.

As an old freshman (20 years old before the season starts), Dickinson may have less of a rough transition than most first-year centers in the Big Ten. The quick learning curve from this condensed season and the conference's overall size/talent up front means Dickinson will still experience a good deal of the usual freshman rollercoaster. He's also enough of a talent—and so got-dang big—that the team could build some of its identity around having a skilled behemoth in the middle if he's ready to take on the minutes.

#51 Austin Davis

Year: Redshirt Senior
Height/Weight: 6'10/250
Key Counting Stats: 10.7 MPG, 4.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 69% (nice) 2P, 54% FT
Key Advanced Stats: 20.5% usage, 11.0 off. reb.%, 16.3 def. reb.%, 20.9 TO rate, 1.8 block%, 6.6 fouls/40

There's a very good news/bad news aspect to Martelli using Austin Davis' sudden development into a solid backup center as an example of the team's top-tier player development:

It’s remarkable. I believe, spotlight on [Juwan Howard], I believe Hunter chose Michigan because he saw that when he came for his visit. It wasn’t talk. It wasn’t like, here, let us put this on a screen and talk about player development. He knew that Juwan would hold himself accountable for Hunter’s player development. If you take the bigger picture, there’s nobody on this call that would say, ‘Oh yeah, I could see Austin Davis [get] three or four baskets at Michigan State.’ That’s because, I use the term, he was in the lab with Juwan. It was personal.

The good news is obvious: Howard is very good at coaching big men and Davis is now playable. The flip side is it took a lot of work in "the lab" to get Davis to this point and he's still a limited player. The impressive post scoring stuck against better teams; his rebounding didn't and his defense was a problem. You can see it in his individual numbers (KenPom Tier A = home court-adjusted top 50 opponents).

Austin Davis in Tier A games, the good: 24/36 FG (67%), 7.7 off. reb.%
Austin Davis in Tier A games, the bad: 11.7 def. reb.%, 22.5 TO rate, 0.7 block%, 7.5 fouls/40

You can see it in the team numbers (cupcakes removed):

Michigan was a couple points per 100 possessions better on offense with Davis on the court than without—and 13(!!!) points per 100 possessions worse on defense. While some of the latter number can be attributed to bad three-point luck, part of the uptick in opponent three-point shooting can also be blamed on Davis not being quick enough to get out on shooters.

That doesn't mean Davis isn't of use. There aren't a lot of playable third centers in college basketball, let alone guys you can throw the ball in the post and expect to create a decent look for himself. Improved team defense (and greater team size) could help cover for his limitations on that end of the court.

With one center option a huge freshman who could gas/foul out and the other more of a power forward, Davis is going to see time. I'm just guessing it's in a similar vein as last year; around ten minutes per game with some peaks around 15 and some opponents that play him off the court like Wisconsin did last year.