juwan howard burls it up

Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings, Bigs, Season Preview Podcast

The season starts in mere minutes, so let's get right to it.

Who's Going to Start?

I'm going to preface the answer to my own question by saying the closing lineup and overall minutes distribution may end up mattering a lot more than the starting lineup. I could see, for example, Juwan Howard wanting to start a traditional center but playing small-ball to close games because that emerges as his best group. The difference between some rotation players is small enough that we could see starting lineup changes based on matchup. There's a lot on the table.

Instead of taking one stab at this, I'm going to run down a few options and list the positives/negatives of each. For the sake of keeping things simple and also because I believe this is how it'll shake out, I have Hunter Dickinson ahead of Austin Davis as the top traditional center option.

Mike Smith - Chaundee Brown - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Hunter Dickinson

Positives: Smith gives the team added scoring punch and a second pick-and-roll ballhandler to complement Wagner. The three wings are all switchable defenders. Dickinson's size is going to give a lot of defenders problems and he's got some potential as a pick-and-pop big.

Negatives: The defense with this group probably won't be elite between having the diminutive Ivy League transfer at the point and a freshman center who isn't the most mobile player. If Smith isn't a Big Ten-quality pick-and-roll ballhandler, a lot falls on Wagner's shoulders. Have to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson.

[Hit THE JUMP for more lineup combos and more questions.]

Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings

While we don't know precisely how the point guard and wing rotation is going to shake out, the center position is the spot with the most uncertainty on the roster after the departures of Jon Teske and Colin Castleton. Juwan Howard has three viable options at his disposal, a luxury in college basketball.

There's the hard-working redshirt senior known as Big Country, the athletic power forward slash small-ball center, and the talented freshman ent. I'm listing them below in order of projected minutes at any position, which puts the multi-position player out in front, but they all should be rotation players who get their chance to shine at one point or another.

#23 Brandon Johns Jr.

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'8/240
Key Counting Stats: 19.6 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 60%/35%/64% (2P/3P/FT)
Key Advanced Stats: 15.2% usage, 7.4 off. rebound%, 15.2 def. reb.%, 3.3 block%, 41.4 FTRate

Halfway through Brandon Johns' sophomore season, there were legitimate concerns about whether he'd stick in Michigan's rotation. He'd rebound and block shots, but his shot wasn't falling, his confidence waned, and he looked lost on the court. There were games when he seemingly wouldn't even look at the basket.

The proverbial light bulb came on in late January. Generally playing as the #4 offensive option, Johns still had up and down statistical performances, but there were a lot more ups and he continued to contribute when he wasn't scoring. He had some big games down the stretch:

• 14 points on 11 shooting possessions, five offensive rebounds vs. Penn State
• 16- and 20-point performances in back-to-back games against Nebraska and Rutgers, respectively
• 14 points, 3/3 three-pointers, five boards, a block, and a steal to win KenPom MVP against Indiana

His rough outing in his hometown of East Lansing was a personal low point. The return game against MSU in Ann Arbor provided some redemption—he had seven points on six shots, five rebounds, and two blocks in only 19 minutes.

[Hit THE JUMP for profiles on Johns, Hunter Dickinson, and Austin Davis.]

That got away in a hurry.

After Michigan either narrowly led or closely trailed for most of the game at Ohio State, we appeared to be in for a classic finish when Franz Wagner knotted the score with a three-pointer and Jon Teske rolled in a hook shot to tie it up again after OSU's CJ Walker responded. With 6:51 remaining, the score stood at 54 apiece.

You already read the final but I'll save you the math: the Buckeyes closed the game on a 23-6 run before Wagner hit a buzzer-beating triple that'll only count for KenPom's calculations. A tight game ended up verging on a blowout. 

Much like the prior game against Wisconsin, much of Michigan's problems stemmed from falling well short of their foe on points beyond the arc. Unlike that game, the Wolverines had no problem generating looks today, they just couldn't hit them. Wagner, who led the team with 18 points and ten rebounds, went 4/8 on three-pointers; the rest of the team went a combined 3/18.

Franz Wagner was the only Michigan shooter to find his range [Campredon]

In another frustrating similarity to Thursday's loss, Ohio State made it rain on Michigan's defense. The Wolverines had three significant problems: Duane Washington (5/7 3PT) was dialed in and punished the defense whenever they switched, Kaleb Wesson (4/5 3PT) got open looks because M's centers didn't get out on him, and both Kaleb and brother Andre Wesson managed to bank in second-half threes. OSU went 11/21 from beyond the arc, including 6/9 in the second half.

On Michigan's ensuing possession after Teske tied it up, the big man committed his fourth foul. On Thursday, the Wolverines made a late run at the Badgers by playing Brandon Johns at center after Austin Davis had difficultly staying with their stretch bigs. Today, Juwan Howard decided to stick with Davis. While the first triple with Davis in was the fortuitous Andre Wesson bank after Wagner had nearly come up with a steal, the second in as many possessions came when Davis lost Kaleb Wesson on a pick-and-pop, and the Buckeyes suddenly held an eight-point lead.

Walker took the lead to double digits with one of seemingly a hundred midrange pullups out of the high screen to take the deficit to ten, and then Michigan crumbled. A Simpson pass to an unsuspecting Isaiah Livers, who had a brutal 2/11 outing from the field, clanged off his hands for a backcourt violation. Teske bit on a Kaleb Wesson pump fake to give up a layup. With the game all but over, Kaleb then bonked in his three off the glass to seal it.

Bank Brother #2 won his matchup with Isaiah Livers [Campredon]

After Wagner, Simpson was the only Michigan player to score in double digits, going for 12 points on ten shots with seven assists and four turnovers. Teske needed nine shooting possessions to net his eight points and coughed up three turnovers; Davis had eight points on 4/4 shooting but he too committed three turnovers. Eli Brooks, sporting a Batman-like mask in his return from a broken nose, had seven points, seven rebounds, and two assists but went only 3/8 from the field.

All five Ohio State starters hit double-digit points as Chris Holtmann had to go with a short rotation down starting forward Kyle Young and reserve Alonzo Gaffney. Washington, Young's replacement in the starting lineup, led the way with 20, Walker posted 15 and 7 assists, the Wesson brothers each had 14, and Luther Muhammad chipped in ten to go with a pair of steals. Andre Wesson visibly dominated his matchup with Livers on both ends of the floor, which proved impossible for the Wolverines to overcome.

The loss drops Michigan to 9-9 in the Big Ten and a full game behind OSU, which also holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after completing the season sweep. The Wolverines are tied for eighth in the conference with Rutgers. They'll be heavy favorites for Thursday's home finale against Nebraska before closing the regular season on Sunday at Maryland. Hopefully the jumpers start falling by then.

[Hit THE JUMP for THE MASK and the box score.]