11/13/2021 – Michigan 21, Penn State 17 – 9-1, 6-1 Big Ten

Sean Clifford sat down on the sideline and let his demeanor crack briefly. Unfortunately for him, this moment was caught by ABC's cameras and broadcast nationwide. He collapsed on the bench and looked like he'd spent several hours in a car wash, without a car. Weary. Bone-deep weary. His jersey looked like he was wearing one of those HOUSE DIVIDED half-and-half monstrosities, this one split equally between Penn State and Grass & Splintered Bone Tech.

GASBTU has a regionally competitive meat judging team [Barron]

He was in the midst of getting sacked seven times and running for his life another couple dozen times. He'd flung passes to receivers who merrily dropped them. He was big parts of the third-and-medium ground game. He'd watched his coach call for a fake field goal on the two yard line. At some point, he knew, he would have to go out there again and pretend for exactly 2.1 seconds that the useless pylons the OL coach insisted were the starting tackles would block the two demons Michigan insisted were college students instead of stygian nightmares conjured up in a foul act of summoning prowess. (Michigan's position: "why not both?")

Sean Clifford sighed a sigh. He sat and calcified on the bench. He sighed again. Eventually got up.

--------------------------------

Opposing fans are not known for empathy. Anything short of psychotic narcissism generally qualifies you as one of the good ones. But as Penn State lurched into a fourth quarter lead, Michigan Twitter thoughts evolved from "how is he doing this" to "I hope he stops doing this" to "I'm glad he stopped doing that" before finally landing on a sort of elegy.

When your opposition fights like a lion and then has the courtesy to die, you parade him around, lauding his heroism. Appreciating his martial spirit, which was perfectly calibrated: just enough to lose valiantly. Well done. Now we get to feel the exhilaration of a close win. You get to wonder if Clifford's sanity meter is going to overflow against Rutgers.

Michigan fans saw the same thing happen to one of the most physically promising quarterbacks to ever land in Ann Arbor. Devin Gardner looked like a Heisman contender while batting away 300-pound defensive tackles under the lights against Notre Dame; several games later he had the same jersey Clifford does above, except worse.

[Bryan Fuller]

He was no longer the same quarterback. Nobody is when the expectation moves from the possibility of improvisation to the necessity of flight. Clifford isn't, either. Penn State was on their way to a win over Iowa when he got crushed by an unblocked blitzer. When Clifford came back his running ability was put on the shelf, and Penn State went into a tailspin.

Even in this game when PSU turned his legs back on and he started off brilliantly he faded down the stretch, overthrowing open receivers and finally jacking up a hopeless, inaccurate fade as RJ Moten tore at him just like the Iowa defender had a month ago. It's not clear whether Clifford had time to realize that his mesh routes had been obliterated. Watching it again, it feels like Clifford saw Moten charging at him and had an octopus nope moment. Not because he's not tough enough—the preceding 57 minutes are evidence enough—but because he is a human and you can only endure so much blunt force trauma in a short period of time before you are a human who very much does not want to continue having a football attached to his person.

These are the works of Ojabo and Hutchinson. Look on them, ye quarterbacks, and despair.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

"not in the face" [Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Aidan Hutchinson/David Ojabo. We're just flipping the Hutchinson/Ojabo pairing and Haskins until further notice. Five sacks between Michigan's twin towers of destruction to go with three fumbles forced and a critical holding call drawn by Hutchinson. Hutchinson was so terrifying that at one point a PSU running back looked straight at Junior Colson charging upfield unmolested, decided that he should block Hutchinson instead, and may have been correct to do so since Hutchinson just went through both guys to share a sack with Colson. Meanwhile Ojabo leads the country in forced fumbles. Full points for both, because you try explaining to them why they don't get full points.

#2 Hassan Haskins. Michigan's bell cow again with Corum out. Rough start, smooth finish with 31 carries for 156 yards and another 45 yards on 5 receptions. Making Michigan's garbage short yardage package work through sheer will. Ripping through linebackers on the regular. Just a miserable bastard to tackle all around.

#3 DJ Turner. Yeah PSU got him on the TD and the two point conversion but those were throws that were uncontestable, particularly the two point conversion. Turner had in fact done a terrific job to give PSU nothing but a tough ball down and to the outside; Dotson and Clifford executed it. Outside of that Turner got in two PBUs, one on the first snap and one on Dotson in the fourth quarter, while providing at least solid and usually very good coverage the rest of the day.

Honorable mention: Cade McNamara had some hiccups but put up 7.5 YPA against a very good defense. Roman Wilson scored a couple of TDs, one on a skinny post he won decisively on. Colson and Josh Ross put in yeoman work with little support for most of the day and turned in important TFLs. Brad Robbins out-dueled Jordan Stout in the punt-off.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

42: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb, #2 NW, T3 MSU, T2 IU, T1 PSU)
30: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb, T1 NW, #1 IU, #2 PSU)
21: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc, T3 MSU, T2 IU, T1 PSU)
18: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb, HM NW)
17: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb, T1 NW)
10: Cade McNamara (#1 MSU, HM IU, HM PSU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb),Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb, HM MSU)
7: Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM PSU), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM NW, HM PSU)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb, HM MSU), DJ Turner (#3 NW, #3 PSU)
5: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc, #3 IU), Andrel Anthony (#2 MSU)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc, HM PSU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU)
2: Erick All (HM NW, HM MSU), Junior Colson (HM IU, HM PSU)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers),  Taylor Upshaw (HM IU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan runs the Mother Of All Mesh Routes against cover one to pop Erick All open for the game-winning touchdown:

TD WOLVERINES !

Quelle réponse de Michigan ! Un drive parfait conclu par ce TD sur réception de TE Erick All.

Penn State 17, Michigan 21pic.twitter.com/JFQ1QQp1KL

— TBP College Football (@thebluepennant) November 13, 2021

FYI, this was the biggest swing play of the week in college football, spiking Michigan's win percentage by 24%.

 

Honorable mention: Macdonald calls the Mother Of All Mesh Beaters on PSU ensuing drive; McNamara drops a dime to Wilson; the other dime to Wilson; any of various Robbins mechapunts; any of various Hutch/Ojabo pass rushes.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

McNamara is violently blindsided on third and eleven for a sack strip that eventually sends PSU ahead for the first time.

Honorable mention: Fourth and six fake punt conversion after timeout; third and seventeen conversion earlier on that drive; four different false starts put Michigan behind the eight-ball on offense.

[After THE JUMP: well it's M-PSU so we have to talk about someone deciding something absurd]

OFFENSE

Bing bang bop. Mere minutes after I broke a longstanding pledge to avoid petulant bitching on Twitter, Josh Gattis caught cover one with the Erick All crossing route above. All's guy got caught up on a teammate, helped in part by the ump, the deep safety followed a dig route, and McNamara just had to hit a crossing route in front of his face for a 47 yard touchdown.

I still don't get going empty on third and 11 when that transfer DE for PSU has already given Hayes the business.

Hoss [Barron]

Exploring the outside. Michigan had just 46 rushing yards at halftime, but got off the mat in the second half with a series of outside runs with Haskins. These came in various flavors from pin and pull to down G to counter, but the common thread with them was that Michigan was attacking the force players from Penn State and breaking outside that contain:

Five or six second half chunk runs had this same general pattern, though they took different routes to get there.

Look back? McNamara threw two consecutive back shoulder throws that looked pretty good except for the fact that the receiver (Johnson in the first case, Wilson in the second wasn't expecting it and didn't come back for the ball. Good luck to Seth grading those.

[Barron]

Zip. McNamara's dart to Wilson for the 21-yard touchdown was there presnap, with PSU aligning its lone deep safety on the field hash. Wilson was #1 to the boundary and was set to run a skinny post that there was no chance of that S getting over on, so once Wilson won inside on his route that was going to be there. McNamara was locked in on that route the whole play. As Seth has said: McNamara is good at seeing what's there presnap.

Maybe Corum keeps his feet here [Barron]

Corum costs. All praise to Haskins for his workhorse performance—he touched the ball on more than half of Michigan's plays—but Michigan did miss Corum in this game. The above shot is Haskins getting taken off his feet a yard short of a first down by a marginal McNamara throw, and you have to wonder if Corum's keeping his feet there and getting an important first down. Also Michigan did not have an explosive run play; Haskins topped out at 17 yards.

You wonder about Donovan Edwards in the above situation as well. Edwards caught a lot of passes in high school. I get why you're not putting a freshman out on a critical third down deep in your own territory, I guess. But also that felt like a spot where you could have him run a slant without the world ending.

Repeated demands for a fullback. Michigan got stuffed on third and two and fourth and two in this game, and a further fourth and two was only rescued by Haskins doing Haskins things:

Michigan did seem to learn a lesson late, converting a third and one with a QB sneak instead of running a slow-developing play.

It's very frustrating to have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, statistically, and Hassan Haskins, and Jim Harbaugh, and to be struggling so badly in this department. Looking at Football Outsiders' line stats only emphasizes this. Michigan is 28th in line yards, 5th in stuff rate… and 71st in power success rate. It is baffling to be so good at preventing 0-yard-or-worse runs and so bad at converting short yardage.

DEFENSE

Mesh explosion. All credit to Macdonald for his call on PSU's final play. He guessed mesh, and PSU ran mesh, and he had two DL decapitate the mesh guys:

4th down

Stop them and win.

RJ Moten brings enough pressure that Clifford has to get rid of it.

Gray has perfect coverage.

Ball game. pic.twitter.com/C7vVL4IXjD

— Due# (@JDue51) November 14, 2021

Meanwhile RJ Moten gets a free run because PSU is not accounting for the FS and Clifford can only heave a desperation ball at a very bad receiver on a fade on fourth and two. On the podcast I said this was RPS+2 and Seth responded "why not three" and uh okay he's got a point.

"not again" [Barron]

In the face. On the bright side for Sean Clifford, he has potential NIL deals with bandages, painkillers, hot tubs, and panic rooms in the offing. So he's got that going for him.

Hopefully that is some comfort when he wakes up in bed 50 years from now moaning "Ojabo… not in the face… Hutchinson…aaargh." All Michigan fans were grimly familiar with the facial expressions Clifford was making on the sidelines as he tried to keep a chipper face up after being run over by trucks several times. Devin Gardner syndrome was there.

It is likely that Clifford's shaky accuracy and hair trigger in the second half were direct results of his expectation that every time he dropped back someone was going to drop an anvil on him.

Pressure is the name of the game: Sean Clifford was pressured on 46.3 percent of his dropbacks and was sacked seven times. His stat line while under heat, per PFF: 5-16 (31.3 percent) for 62 yards (3.9 yards per attempt).

— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) November 14, 2021

Michigan had three sack-strips in this game and recovered none of them; meanwhile PSU recovered theirs. That is a large part of the discrepancy between the final score (competitive) and Bill Connelly's win expectation calculation (93% for M).

[Barron]

Scramble QBs are frustrating. Michigan kept getting PSU in long yardage situations early and then Clifford would make something happen. The third and seventeen conversion that kicked off a very frustrating first quarter is just one of those things. As you can see above, Taylor Upshaw is about a second from sacking Clifford when he finds his crosser, who 1) got jammed by Ross but 2) got open anyway because Ross picked off Hill after the jam:

Clifford then scrambled to turn second and 22 into third and eight, which PSU then converted on a QB power.

There were a couple of plays on which Michigan was able to staple the pocket shut—Welschof shared a sack on one of those—but for much of the game it felt like Michigan's terrific pass rush DEs were getting upfield and the DTs weren't getting enough push to close off the windows those rushes opened up. Uh, except the seven times that Michigan sacked Clifford.

On that QB power. Two things: Michigan went with its pure rush package, putting Morris and Upshaw at DT. Upshaw got crushed by a double. Also both Hill and Ross followed a WR motioning outside to quads. The latter is just a bust, but the former is a bad idea against a mobile QB and may be another NFL coordinator issue. In college you've got to expect that. 

Dotson defanged. On the good side of the ledger, Michigan kept a lid on Jahan Dotson, who had just 61 yards on 9 catches. Large chunks of this was the pressure on Clifford, but when challenged Michigan DBs were generally in good position, particularly the aforementioned Turner.

Both CBs appeared to get got on the fourth down conversions on the PSU TD drive. On the first, Dotson came out of a bunch formation and sat down; Turner appeared to be the nearest guy in zone but was carrying a drag route that Ross was also on. The subsequent slant saw Dotson win inside on Gray to the point where Gray had no play on the ball.

The latter play did feature an underneath zone defender in Josh Ross, but Clifford looked at his tight end first before coming to Dotson and Ross got sent the wrong way. Was kind of wishing that the instructions on that play were "undercut Dotson slant at all costs," because I'll live with a TE slant versus that.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Blang! Punting. This game featured nine punts and nine total return yards. Average punt distance 52 for Brad Robbins, 51 for Jordan Stout. The wind helped a bit; even accounting for that we may have just seen the greatest combined punting performance in living memory. Big Ten!

Fake punt odyssey. The mystery of Michigan's timeout immediately prior to the PSU fake punt was resolved in the postgame, when Harbaugh said that Michigan had 13 guys on the field. PSU still running the fake after the timeout was, uh, bold, and it worked out largely because Quinten Johnson started looking around and stopped his feet when he could have been in good position to defend the throw.

I still feel like on fourth and six in that situation you should be in punt safe because you're not ever getting a return against PSU's punter—really, any punter. It's the plus 39! You're either fair-catching a ball on the ten or hoping it goes into the endzone, so just put your real D out with a returner and avoid the possibility of the fake entirely.

you have learned/forgotten something about punt downing this week [Barron]

Nobody knows the punt downing rules. I don't, and you don't, and the officials don't, and Jim Harbaugh probably doesn't but he did know the one pictured above where if the punting team possesses the ball the play immediately stops even if the guy subsequently ends up in the endzone. Mike Sainristil didn't know the rule, so he tried to drop the ball he'd possessed before he went into the endzone. The officials didn't know the rule, so they said it was a touchback, and only fevered googling in the replay booth eventually overturned that call and put it on the two yard line.

This is nobody's fault. I don't know all the rules, and since I just learned this one a previous one I knew has fallen out of my head. It is impossible to know everything about downing a punt before it goes in the endzone.

MISCELLANEOUS

[Barron]

Frames! Some traditions are unbreakable, and so whenever Michigan plays Penn State James Franklin will do something goofy, Jim Harbaugh will one-up him, and then Franklin will slam the ace of spades on the table. The punt goofery fulfilled the first two parts of the ritual, and the above sealed the deal. The above is a fake field goal on which PSU probably did fool Michigan's kick defense, but it did not matter because all that did is give a kicker a three-yard head start against scholarship Michigan defensive backs including Dax Hill.

Penn State was deeply fortunate that one guy was in position to tackle Hill at the 29; otherwise that was going to be a touchdown the other way.

HERE

Best and Worst:

After gaining 141 yards on their first 3 drives, it was PSU that proceeded to struggle moving the ball with any consistency.  For the rest of the game they were 3/13 on 3rd down (and 4/6 on 4th down), picking up a total of 191 yards over their next 8 drives while Michigan was able to grind out 250 yards on their remaining 8 drives and converted on 6/13 3rd downs.  And that’s a big difference between this Michigan team and years past; they have shown resiliency and consistency when faced with adversity, especially on the road.  I know some will rush to the comments to point out how they lost in East Lansing, but they also fought back against Nebraska on the road when they had every reason to give that up and they also stood tall against PSU after that hellacious first quarter and then that disastrous TD-fumble-FG series.

State of our Open Threads:

We managed 285 fucks given in the thread, which is comparable to the 299 given during the Nebraska game. Similarly, we gave 122 shits, which is similar to the Nebraska game as well. Here's what that looks like graphically:

Especially with "fuck", it's beginning to look like almost every season save for last years, which was strange because of COVID restrictions. The non-conference schedule is mostly quiet, then about 2-3 games into the conference schedule, a spike, then MSU, then a dip, then a PSU-like game, then of course, Ohio State and the board descending into fuckery.