Preview 2023: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
I'm dumping the chart from this section because I was squinting at it and couldn't figure out if it said anything meaningful. Revamp.
FUMBLES. Michigan fumbled 15 times last year, losing four. That's fortunate; studies have generally shown that there is no repeatability to fumble recoveries and everyone regresses to 50%. The main culprit here was McCarthy, who was charged with nine; Corum had one, Stokes had one, Edwards had two, and Ronnie Bell had two. QB fumbles are often a combination of youth and bad pass protection, so hopefully Michigan will be able to reduce the raw numbers here; otherwise turnovers should scoot up.
OPPONENT FUMBLES. Michigan only forced two last year, a major dropoff from the 11 they forced in 2021. Seven of those came from the DE, so the recipe here is clear: get to the QB. PFF does not chart "oops" fumbles so I'm not 100% sure how many times opponents put the ball on the turf themselves last year; Michigan only recovered four on the season so they can't backslide any further here.
INTERCEPTIONS. Opponents converted 13 turnover-worthy passes from McCarthy into six interceptions. If pass pro remains steady McCarthy should drop that number of potential INTs.
OPPONENT INTERCEPTIONS. Michigan improved from 2021, when they had a 50% conversion rate on interception opportunities (8/16). Last year they were 14/19, with Will Johnson and Rod Moore leading the way. Their ratio of PBUs to interception opportunities also went up a bit. With Moore back and Johnson emerging into a full-time starter this should remain relatively high, especially if Michigan cranks its pass rush back up. Their 14 INTs were tied for fifth in the Big Ten.
UPSHOT. Michigan was third in TO margin last year in the league with a +8; they were fortunate not to lose two or three more fumbles and should have finished in the middle of the pack. Baseline expectations should be improvement since McCarthy was the source of most fumbles and (obviously) all interceptions; he moves from a true sophomore to a junior and will be more responsible.
Meanwhile Michigan's pass rush should be more consistent in big games and it has a couple of real ballhawks in the secondary. They should at least tread water; improvement is likely. (Insofar as anything is likely with such a high randomness thing.)
Position Switches
finally [Fuller]
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. Flipping sides of the ball is very bad. Sliding an OT to OG is probably fine. Sliding an OG to OT… might be bad. Flipping ILB slots is nothing.
Nothing of note.
OG LaDarius Henderson to LT. Not concerning because if he plays he'll have beaten out an actual tackle.
LB Kalel Mullings to RB. Hooray linebacker depth.
OL Reece Atteberry and Alessandro Lorenzetti to DT. Might say bad things about DTs past the top four but not a concern for this season. Outrageous OL depth means that taking a look at a couple of guys who might not be on the two deep (Lorenzetti isn't; Atteberry could have gotten pushed out by Raheem Anderson or Andrew Gentry) is low cost.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios: 9-3, with losses against Penn State and Ohio State and then one of those games where you fumble six times and the Baba Yaga curses you.
Best Case: 12-0. I mean.
Final Verdict
This may be the worst schedule I've ever perceived. There is no one in the nonconference, the crossover games are year zero Nebraska, year zero Purdue, and a Minnesota team that just lost its entire identity. Rutgers and Indiana look like exceptionally putrid versions of themselves. Michigan State hasn't defended the pass in two years, lost its starting quarterback and only good skill player to the portal, and is going to try to cover Donovan Edwards with the same two dump truck MLBs they were playing last year.
Penn State, Maryland, and OSU is a closing gauntlet. But if Michigan isn't 9-0 entering those games it'll be an upset. How many of those spreads are going to be 14+? 21+?
Conference | ||
---|---|---|
9/2 | ECU | Must win |
9/9 | UNLV | Must win |
9/16 | BGSU | Must win |
9/23 | Rutgers | Must win |
9/30 | @ Nebraska | Must win |
10/7 | @ Minnesota | Must win |
10/14 | Indiana | Must win |
10/21 | @ MSU | Must win |
11/4 | Purdue | Must win |
11/11 | @ Penn State | Likely win |
11/19 | @ Maryland | Likely win |
11/26 | OSU | Tossup |
Absent: |
Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois |
12-0. Yes, fans of multiplying percentages together, 11-1 is probably the most likely outcome. Don't care. Hit dingers.
September 1st, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
I'm all in. 12-0, then 2 more and 0. National champs. Best team of my cotton pickin' MGoBlue lifetime.
September 1st, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
"...then 3* more and 0."
Fixed it for you. Don't forget the Big Ten Championship game.
September 1st, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
Your what now
September 1st, 2023 at 6:12 PM ^
Old enough to remember Bob Ufer
September 1st, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
Indeed—can still hear him honking the horn when we score a TD
September 1st, 2023 at 7:12 PM ^
Old enough to remember when Gordie Bell was my dad’s favorite back
September 1st, 2023 at 9:40 PM ^
I'm 58 and remember when Gordie Bell was MY favorite back. That must be close to 50 years ago.
Granted, I didn't upstand as much back then....but this might be Michigan's most talented team ever. My other thoughts are 1985 and 1997.
January 9th, 2024 at 3:55 PM ^
Called your shot!
September 1st, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
Anyone know a good drywall guy? Gonna need some work done on the walls in my house.
September 1st, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Chicks dig the long ball!!
Time to reprise this from my comment in Brian's first post of the week:
September 1st, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^
Chicks dig guys with money
September 1st, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
Time to eat
September 1st, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
Be competitive and in it is all I ask. Go Blue!
September 1st, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
DINGERS!!!1!
September 1st, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
DINGERS! DINGERS!
September 1st, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
FOURTEEN AND OH
September 1st, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^
You forgot a game!
Not many scenarios (a horrible national-event that cancels a week of college football, Michigan gets kicked out of the NCAA before the title game) where Michigan finishes 14-0!
September 1st, 2023 at 6:56 PM ^
I hate to tell you this but the h5n1 bird flu will preempt the CFP this year.
September 1st, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^
You really think you scare me Vladimir??? Will your "bird flu" interrupt the Citrus Bowl? I already have my plans to be in Orlando on January 1, they will not be interrupted by you.
September 1st, 2023 at 10:49 PM ^
this guy gets it
September 1st, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
Wow. Just Wow! I came to MgoBlog in 2008 and this year will be the one that stands out the most. Go Blue!
September 1st, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
Never Bunt, Hit Dingers should be on a Tshirt if it isn't already
September 1st, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
12? Oh!
September 1st, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
Example of the Michigan difference: Extant application of "the regression effect."
This was made mainstream by a Stats professor at M in the 1980's. I took the class as a blow-off as an engineering major, but wow. It was good. Great professor. Stats 402 in LSA if I remember correctly. Don't remember his name, but I was impressed.
Example from the above:
"Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average."
September 1st, 2023 at 9:01 PM ^
I think you’re referring to Professor Rothman. Great lecturer. Took his class in the fall of ‘83.
September 1st, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
I will once again challenge the assertion that there is any sort of gravity toward the mean. That’s a child’s idea of probabilities. Random is random. Roll a 6 on a die and you are not more likely to roll a 3 or 4 the next time because you did so. You are not likely to keep rolling 6s, but that has no bearing on the next outcome.
It’s not unheard of for a team to get lucky or unlucky some years in a row. Crissakes anyone familiar with the UM-OSU rivalry should know.
September 1st, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
Is this not a Bayesian-ish (wild hand waving commencing)? I mean, causing TOs is not as random as tipped balls/fumbles actually being recovered. The questions is, relative to last year's team, can we expect the things the cause TOs (QB pressure, DB experience and talent) in increase for us and decrease against us?
overall, it's probably too hard to gauge b/c the randomness is close to a standard deviation but, we're speaking on the margins hear and the margins of TOs can have big impacts on results.
Also, PSU should be a toss up on the road. Or at least lean to win
September 1st, 2023 at 6:56 PM ^
From the statistical POV, I agree with you - Michigan (or any other generally good team)'s expected turnover margin for the season doesn't start at zero. The "intelligent prior" isn't zero.
It would be a whole hell of a lot of work, but I'd love if one of the advanced stats people out there "classified" turnovers over the course of year. On a range of dumb luck to great play. There would be value in knowing that.
Take, for instance, Maryland's 3 turnovers against Michigan last year:
1. The opening kickoff doinking off the returner's helmet is about as far left as you can get on that spectrum.
2. Turner's interception was more to the middle. Good play, but also some refs/replay help.
3. Moten's interception was on the right end of the spectrum. DL pressure, DB made a play too.
September 1st, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Little brother’s lack of interest in defending the pass is just another example of how petty they are. They just do that because they know how much we hate throwing the ball.
September 1st, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Currently processing a painful breakup with a long term partner (5+ years). Football won’t heal the pain but comes at a convenient time to get the mind off things for a few hours each Saturday. A 15-0 season and a national championship wouldn’t hurt. Go fucking blue.
September 2nd, 2023 at 3:43 AM ^
Just put down the burritos, cut the carbs like you are Tom Brady and get on Bumble (or Grindr based on your partner reference) and kill it. After 5 years, you can finally start nailing anything that moves, stop moping and enjoy it. You should have less interest in this season than past ones because you should have plans with much hotter partner than the one who slowly got fatter while you both sat around in your sweatpants.
January 12th, 2024 at 9:31 PM ^
I hope it helped!!!
September 1st, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
I can’t stop thinking about talented M teams that underperformed. But I remember the 1996 team in particular. So much talent and lost games they never should have. But then I remember what the players have revealed about that team: a fractured locker room leading to arguments and even fights both in practice and out socially.
This team probably has much stronger culture and cohesiveness. It may not have been totally cohesive last year, even among captains Erick All, Cade McNamara, and other parts of the team (coaches, JJ etc. maybe, if that one “sourced” article is to be believed) but it wasn’t a big enough distraction. If the culture of the team is even stronger and more unified this year that’s a huge decrease in the odds of 1996 year and an increase in the odds of a 1997 type season.
Go Blue!
September 1st, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
Brian picked 12-0 in 2016. It didn’t turn out and the expectation of disappointment lingers, but Brian’s description of his reasoning was just great stuff and I reread it just for the thrill it still brings to read.
This year compared to 2016: Every offensive position except TE is significantly better, sometimes massively so. Defense? TBD, that was a terrific and loaded defense, but it’s not much worse this year if at all.
And it’s a team that knows how to win.
Could easily lose a game here. But 12-0 is… so, so reasonable. This is a team that can win the national title.
It’s amazing we can say this.
Go Blue.
September 1st, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
"a Minnesota team that just lost its entire identity"
Okay what did I miss? They didn't stop rowing, did they?
September 1st, 2023 at 9:23 PM ^
They were a really good run team the last few years with Mo Ibrahim and co, and if yesterdays Nebraska game is any indication their Oline is trash and can’t run for shit
September 2nd, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
And Tanner Morgan, their QB since 2013. He finally ran out of eligibility. However, there's a dude with a curly mustache named "Tanner Mordecai" starting at QB for Wisconsin. I mean, they barely tried to hide what's going on.
September 1st, 2023 at 6:55 PM ^
I'm going to enjoy next year's preview an AWFUL LOT more than I enjoyed this year's.
September 1st, 2023 at 7:11 PM ^
Now you know how Ive felt reading OSU previews for the last ten years
September 1st, 2023 at 7:17 PM ^
I remember a recent year (2018?) when OSU’s offense on FFFF had 3 shields and at least 6 stars.
September 1st, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
That’s child’s play. The infamous 2021 OSU FFFF had 7 shields and 10 stars https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-ohio-state-offense-2021
September 1st, 2023 at 10:21 PM ^
Sparty looks like world beaters right now.
September 1st, 2023 at 10:42 PM ^
Wife beaters?
September 1st, 2023 at 10:40 PM ^
Beat Ohio.
I’d love another crack at the playoffs, but beat Ohio.
September 1st, 2023 at 11:09 PM ^
Assuming we get CB2 sorted, the defense will be improved over last year. Assuming we take the training wheels off a bit (no, it won't be much more than a bit), the offense will be improved over last year. At this point, this looks like the best Michigan team in recent memory.
Absolute worst case: 10-2
Best case: 15-0, National Champions -- yes, this is realistic. Yes, Harbaugh and staff will have to prove they can win in the CFP, but OSU and staff will have to prove that they can hang with this incarnation of Michigan.
In visual form, if you prefer......
September 1st, 2023 at 11:10 PM ^
Finally you match my prediction. Win ‘em all!
September 1st, 2023 at 11:42 PM ^
Always happy to see my Tommy Rees photo going to good use.
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