2023 season preview

Hello. You have reached the end. This year's season preview is 58,430 words. Thanks to Alex and Seth for picking up positional posts and the ECU preview; thanks to Bryan Fuller and Patrick Barron for providing the lion's share of photos in these posts; thanks to you for reading.

The Stepped Upon

Preview: East Carolina. Hyarrrrr.

Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

I'm dumping the chart from this section because I was squinting at it and couldn't figure out if it said anything meaningful. Revamp.

FUMBLES. Michigan fumbled 15 times last year, losing four. That's fortunate; studies have generally shown that there is no repeatability to fumble recoveries and everyone regresses to 50%. The main culprit here was McCarthy, who was charged with nine; Corum had one, Stokes had one, Edwards had two, and Ronnie Bell had two. QB fumbles are often a combination of youth and bad pass protection, so hopefully Michigan will be able to reduce the raw numbers here; otherwise turnovers should scoot up.

OPPONENT FUMBLES. Michigan only forced two last year, a major dropoff from the 11 they forced in 2021. Seven of those came from the DE, so the recipe here is clear: get to the QB. PFF does not chart "oops" fumbles so I'm not 100% sure how many times opponents put the ball on the turf themselves last year; Michigan only recovered four on the season so they can't backslide any further here.

INTERCEPTIONS. Opponents converted 13 turnover-worthy passes from McCarthy into six interceptions. If pass pro remains steady McCarthy should drop that number of potential INTs.

OPPONENT INTERCEPTIONS. Michigan improved from 2021, when they had a 50% conversion rate on interception opportunities (8/16). Last year they were 14/19, with Will Johnson and Rod Moore leading the way. Their ratio of PBUs to interception opportunities also went up a bit. With Moore back and Johnson emerging into a full-time starter this should remain relatively high, especially if Michigan cranks its pass rush back up. Their 14 INTs were tied for fifth in the Big Ten.

UPSHOT. Michigan was third in TO margin last year in the league with a +8; they were fortunate not to lose two or three more fumbles and should have finished in the middle of the pack. Baseline expectations should be improvement since McCarthy was the source of most fumbles and (obviously) all interceptions; he moves from a true sophomore to a junior and will be more responsible.

Meanwhile Michigan's pass rush should be more consistent in big games and it has a couple of real ballhawks in the secondary. They should at least tread water; improvement is likely. (Insofar as anything is likely with such a high randomness thing.)

Previously: Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

1. uhhhh

You're supposed to ask pressing questions about the upcoming season on the defensive side of the ball.

So what do I say after "what's the deal with CB2?"

You could ask about how far various up and comers can get in an offseason, maybe?

Hasn't that been addressed in the position previews? Also CB2? Isn't this supposed to be a high-level overview? What were last year's questions?

Other than the "well?" at the end of all these posts, they were:

1. Does losing Mike Macdonald matter?
2. What are we gonna do without Hutchabo?
3. For the love of God are we ever going to get competent defending tempo?
4. Is Ben Herbert that dude?

So there's no DC change, tempo seems fixed because Minter spent a bunch of time in college, Ben Herbert is obviously that dude. The Hutchabo thing I can probably spin into a question. What else?

Junior Colson?

Fine.

1. What's the deal with CB2?

Capital of you to ask, young fellow. Because the 2023 Michigan Wolverines are by far the most loaded edition this blog has ever tried to preview this stands out as The Worry Spot, but… it will be fine. Trying to find three guys out of six randos is a problem. (Cue Rich Rodriguez weeping with a lighter in the air.) Trying to find one guy out of… uh… let's see… eight options is probably not one, especially when option one has 2200 college football snaps under his belt.

All defenses work around their limitations and last year's defense finished 15th in SP+ despite having defensive ends that couldn't rush the passer and a linebacker corps that was cobbled together from converted vipers and a guy who probably shouldn't have entered the starting lineup until this year. If everything else hits the middle of expectation city, a moderate downgrade from UDFA Gemon Green to Josh Wallace—if that's even a downgrade—just isn't going to register. And that's foreclosing the possibility that someone jets past midseason, which is a 30% shot.

Michigan should have sufficient strengths that they can carry an adequate player at CB2, and that's the floor here thanks to Wallace.