So You Wanna Draft a Wolverine: Aidan Hutchinson
Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.
Quickly: The best player in the draft by college production. Highest floor in the draft, might not be JJ Watt.
Draft Projection: 1st or 2nd overall pick in a draft without any franchise quarterbacks seems about right. Teams picking there can't afford to mess that pick up, and Hutch is about as good a guarantee of that as you're going to get. I'd expect him to end up ~20th player in his draft class not the 1st, but if you actually know who the top five are going to be you should be in stocks.
NFL Comp: Nick Bosa or TJ Watt. Great measurements, spectacular college production that should translate to instant very good NFL DE, but not one of the freaks, unless he's JJ Watt.
What's his story? High-ish 4-star son of a 1990s All-American tackle (DE) in 2018. First inkling we had something was when our guys's senior high school scout revealed he was more than athletic enough to stay at WDE with a frame that's often on thr DT/DE line. Became a regular opposite Kwity Paye in 2019, first big play rescued a near upset at the hands of Army. Dominated Iowa. Played just 2 games in 2020, asked to 2-gap inside from DE spot to cover for DT deficiencies, unblockable vs MSU, then injured. Returned for senior season, moved out to DE/OLB in new defense, and was the best player in the country.
Positives: Gamebreaker. Ideal size and length for defensive end. Surprising speed, insane strength, uncanny motor. Cerebral, uncanny preparation. Array of pass-rush moves, favoring a vicious club and push-style outside moves, plus an advanced counter inside move. Shows up in the biggest games/moments. Superior run defender. Superior teammate. Generational player; it would be an upset if he's not in the NFL Hall of Fame eventually.
Negatives: Injured in 2020 but came back with no after-effects. If you were in position to draft him your franchise has been completely devastated from choosing the worst person in football to be your head coach recently, or you're the Detroit Lions.
What others say: Pro Football Focus thought he was unreal; they say he had the 2nd highest edge rush grade (92.4) in P5 history, led the Big Ten in run stops, led all FBS edges on all three downs and put up the 3rd highest grade by a defender since 2014, doing so with remarkable consistency.
Aidan Hutchinson led P5 Edges in Pass Rush Grade (93.4) AND Run Defense Grade (90.8)
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) March 25, 2022
The only other Edge Defender to do that since 2014: Nick Bosa (2017)pic.twitter.com/HI6JMgd21E
Following the Ohio State game they had him as their pick for the Heisman. The NFL combine results, where he finished 2nd overall to ND's Kyle Hamilton, raised Hutchinson from likely 2nd overall pick to the consensus #1. He was also #2 overall on Bruce Feldman's freaks list last year, one spot above Hamilton and one behind Bama LT Evan Neal. On the other end, Ian Cummings has his doubts about Hutchinson's ceiling:
My evaluation of Hutchinson has been a roller coaster, quite frankly. I wasn’t a huge fan and saw him more as a Day 2 prospect over the summer. Then the 2021 season happened, and the hype took over. Some elements of his game popped over that span, most notably his red-hot motor, violent hands, lateral agility, and speed-to-power conversion.
However, rewatching the 2021 tape unearthed some concerns that may have been lost in the midseason hype. Hutchinson has above-average explosiveness off the line, but he’s not elite like his teammate Ojabo. His upright style further erodes that explosiveness. He often plays with his pads too high. With a high pad level, he can’t always launch out of his stance at full speed, and he can’t attain superior leverage and attack the torso consistently.
Our Scheme/Best Scheme: Any. Michigan used him as a B-gap quasi-tackle before his injury in 2020 to cover DT deficiencies, then moved him out to a wide-7 end with the occasional dropback as a senior. Best fit would be as an either-side end in a 4-3 system, where his pass rush is a constant threat and he can occasionally wreck things inside if asked to.
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2021 Grading by Play Type
The following numbers are based on my 2021 charting in Upon Further Review. One point is roughly equivalent to an action that affected the play by 5 yards, i.e. zero points are awarded for simply filling an assignment. Certain scores require context, e.g. defensive linemen are expected to score 2 to 1 to the positive because of their greater opportunities to make plays, and rarely get negative individual grades when pass-rushing, since those are handed out through a team metric. Team defense charting.
Versus Play Type: | + | - | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Inside Zone | 22 | 5 | +17 |
Power | 17 | 5 | +12 |
Stretch | 11 | 0 | +11 |
Other Run | 18 | 2 | +16 |
Screens | 11 | 1 | +10 |
Pass Deep | 57 | 1 | +56 |
Pass Short | 60 | 5 | +55 |
PA Pass | 14 | 4 | +10 |
Hutchinson scored a +40.5/-1 (+39.5 total) against Ohio State, which is the highest score in UFR history (dating back to 2007).
Michigan opponents rarely attempted multiple throw reads against Michigan last year, despite weaknesses at some of the defensive back positions, because no pass protection could survive that long against Hutchinson and his edge mate David Ojabo.
Career Grading:
2018 Opponent | Pos | + | - | Total | Snaps | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame | End | 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 | n/a | Looked promising for down the road. |
WMU | End | 3 | 4 | +1.0 | n/a | Buried once. |
SMU | End | 0.5 | 0 | +0.5 | n/a | PT hard to come by. |
Nebraska | End | 8 | 1 | +7.0 | n/a | About half of this real late. Still. |
Northwestern | End | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | n/a | One snap. |
Maryland | End | 4.5 | 2 | +2.5 | n/a | Impressive rip move. |
Wisconsin | End | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | n/a | DNC |
Michigan State | End | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | n/a | DNC |
Indiana | End | 0 | 2 | +2.0 | n/a | Culprit on the one successful second half Scott run. |
2019 Opponent | Pos | + | - | Total | Snaps | Notes |
MTSU | End | 9.5 | 0.5 | +9.0 | 63 | Rip down on QB draw impressive. |
Army | End | 13.5 | 5 | +8.5 | 60 | Massive second OT. |
Wisconsin | End | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 69 | Retained his dignity. |
Rutgers | End | 1 | 2 | +1.0 | 20 | Nonfactor. |
Iowa | End | 11 | 1 | +10.0 | 76 | Major day, got Wirfs once. |
Illinois | End | 13.5 | 4 | +9.5 | 76 | Main driver of fumble #2, other near solo TFL, consistent. |
Penn State | End | 9.5 | 1 | +8.5 | 55 | Was in many places at once. |
Notre Dame | End | 9.5 | 0 | +9.5 | 47 | Screen killer. |
Maryland | End | 7 | 2 | +5.0 | 52 | See Paye. Not elite talents but B+ guys who never mess up. |
Michigan State | End | 13 | 0 | +13.0 | 44 | Paye clone. Or is Paye the clone? |
Indiana | End | 9 | 0 | +9.0 | 59 | No minus lifestyle |
2020 Opponent | Pos | + | - | Total | Snaps | Notes |
Minnesota | SDE | 27 | 5 | +22.0 | 72 | AA |
Michigan State | SDE | 19 | 4 | +15.0 | 79 | Pressure can't get there on instant throws |
Indiana | SDE | 2 | +2.0 | 6 | RIP | |
2021 Opponent | Pos | + | - | Total | Snaps | Notes |
Western Michigan | OLB | 23 | 1 | +22 | 38 | Did this on like 30 snaps. WMU just overmatched. |
Washington | OLB | 16.5 | 2 | +14.5 | 54 | No friggin way this equals that? |
Northern Illinois | OLB | 10 | 1 | +9 | 25 | In ~20 snaps while NIU was trying to avoid him. |
Rutgers | OLB | 24 | 1 | +23 | 66 | 5th overall pick? Sure. Didn't come off the field in the 2nd half. |
Wisconsin | OLB | 25 | 2 | +23 | 38 | Gonna go out on a limb and say we missed him last year. |
Nebraska | OLB | 30.5 | 3.5 | +27 | 59 | PFF's DPotW again so I'm not crazy. |
Northwestern | OLB | 17 | 2 | +15 | 73 | The usual. |
Michigan State | OLB | 29 | 7.5 | +21.5 | 43 | Had to do a lot more LB things. Big mitts in passing lanes. |
Indiana | OLB | 27 | 5 | +22 | 57 | The usual plus a lot of coverage grades. |
Penn State | OLB | 22 | 5 | +17 | 80 | Had PSU's snaps timed. |
Maryland | OLB | 25 | 1 | +24 | 63 | Oh wait, that's just McGregor! —Me when when a play wasn't wrecked and I thought it was Hutchinson for a hot second. |
Ohio State | OLB | 40.5 | 1 | +39.5 | 76 | The most outstanding player in college football. |
Iowa | OLB | 19 | 1 | +18 | 65 | Iowa surrendered their entire offense to avoid this. |
Georgia | OLB | 15 | 4.5 | +10.5 | 56 | UGA's gameplan avoided him entirely. |
Video of All Varieties: (Collection)
Coordinated pass rush moves:
Inside Move:
Length/hands use:
Power rush:
Defeating double-teams:
Controlled pass rush vs play-action:
Bend:
Motor:
Strength/Bull Rush:
Athleticism:
Cerebral. Studies opponents, recognizes patterns and goes off script to create plays.
Defending option:
Interior pass-rusher:
Zone run defender/length and strength:
Defending the flat as an OLB:
Contain opposite stunts:
Defensive line captain:
You probably saw this already but just in case:
Summary and Projection: Michigan has had some rampant defensive ends—Chase Winovich recently, LaMarr Woodley and Brandon Graham historically—come through program in the MGoBlog era, but none had a season like Hutchinson just put together. In opponent grading we scouted multiple games by Chase Young and the Bosas, and Aidan ranks with those three for the best ends we've ever seen. Hutchinson should immediately add to any team's rush, and progress to one of the best ends in the country after a few years to get used to the NFL. The adjustment to schemes is all--Hutchinson has already faced and demolished many well regarded offensive tackles, including a dominant performance in 2019 against Tristan Wirfs.
Add this to Aidan's scouting report:
Can someone explain to me how a guy that got destroyed against the best competition he faced last year, knowing that he will have to face similar type players the rest of his NFL career coupled with an offense that surely won't be the equivalent of OSU last year, is a "steal"?
i remember when glen steele completely destroyed flozell adams of msu. pretty sure he was all big ten and an all pro with the cowboys.
Not to mention Orlando Pace.
Sometimes the bear eats you.
One game isn't a season or a career.
The Game last year was awesome... but completely dominating a top 5 OSU team while going -1 in turnovers, not having any field goal attempts, punting a total of 2 times, scoring 4/4 on second half drives (excluding kneel downs) on like 21 plays, AND failing to recover any of the 3 fumbles in the game was such an anomaly you have to think that some of that outcome was mental and shockingly poor preparation by OSU. Petit-Frere had a bad game. Hutchinson literally had the best game of his career. It was amazing for those of us on the Michigan side, but it was still only one game.
Give the guy a break... If memory serves, they all had the flu or something for that game.
Whoa now, his foot got stuck in the turf
And the snow.
Actually looked like it slipped on the snowy turf. And he had the flu, was lucky to even be on the field!
I'm confused:
I'd expect him to end up ~20th player in his draft class not the 1st
Gamebreaker...Generational player; it would be an upset if he's not in the NFL Hall of Fame eventually.
20th best players in a draft are not usually gamebreakers and hall of famers.
I was also confused when I read that. I assume it was supposed to be "I had expected him to end up ~20th ..." as in "At the start of the season, I thought he'd be a top-20 pick."
That's the only way it makes sense. PFF, NFL.com, PFN...all these entities point to him being a sure thing. Is he Lawrence Taylor? Almost certainly not. Is he just about guaranteed to be, at least, a fringe pro-bowler or better at his position? Yes.
And he does EVERYTHING well, unlike many edge prospects--even those that go #1.
I think he's saying Hutch is being valued as #1/#2 because of his insanely high floor and given there are 7 rounds with who knows how many hidden gems, a statistically likely outcome is he ends up ~20th in the draft. But that does not mesh with shoo-in for hall of fame.
Fan brain vs reasonable takes.
Fair enough. Definitely could be a HoFer.
Apparently your interpretation is correct, but that seems like availability bias (or base rate neglect). I'd be surprised if the average draft has more than five Pro Bowlers taken after the first round.
Chase Allen
Assuming you meant Chase Young.
nick bosa is a trash panda. how do you besmirch this good draft review with that foul miscreant's data.
If you were to believe the scouting reports, Hutchinson has t-rex arms. However, if you look at wingspan, it is wider than Nick Bosa's. And how much of a difference does 3/4-1" make? Not THAT much, I would think.
Yeah, I get it to some degree, but I think it's overblown. QB hand size? An inch is A LOT. Arm length, 3/4 of an inch is being talked about like career-hampering.
Mind you when you bring up, compared to the Bosa's, his faster 40, 3 cone, better vertical, equally fast 10 yard split, and similar broad jump (while being 3 inches taller and similar weight) people look past it and say "o well they're close and not all that big of a gap."
Which just... what? We're throwing out all of THOSE measurables in favor of 1 other one? I don't have the numbers in front of me, but does arm length for DEs correlate to production more than all of those other things combined?
I don’t think it makes a ton of sense either to care about but to be clear arm length and wingspan are two different things and arm length is what matters from a pass rushing perspective.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some scouts were getting paid under the table to damage his draft stock.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if some scouts were just morons.
*Chase Young
I fixed it you bastards
I think TJ Watt is the best comparison. Similar combine stats and they play similar. I think that's his ceiling (defensive player of the year).
If "fit" means anything, I feel like Hutch "fits" well with what Dan Campbell wants to instill within the organization. You want guys that want to be here, and you can't do much better than a local kid with his skill set and work ethic. Really hoping Jacksonville goes with the shiny new thing shooting up draft boards.
Them gifs gave me the vapors.
Hutchinson is going to be awesome but its tough to take the take in how the NFL views him from this when it leaves out that one of the primary negatives for Hutchinson is his arm length. I think its a stupid complaint but he does not have ideal length and its one of the reasons he is seen as having a lower ceiling.
Ah, arm length! That’s what some of the experts said about Joe Thomas, who turned out to be a hall of fame left tackle.
I said I think it feels dumb to get worked up over since he’s been so productive, just that it’s absolutely seen as a negative in his profile.
This article is for whatever team drafts him, for the insights the blog can attest to. Arm length played no part in his College career. He also didn't mention his specific combine stats and those are very relevant to the overall scouting as well- its just not meant to be an exhaustive scouting report like an ESPN article.
Thanks, Seth. That highlight compilation was a thing of beauty! Amazing all from 1 year with the vast majority against the 3 other best teams in the division plus Big Ten Championship and a College Football Playoff game. Made a lot of very good players look laughable. Amazing.
Aidan will be remembered for a long, long time.
Great read Seth, with data and video to back it up. Hutch's ceiling is all pro and his floor isn't that much lower, definitely a top 5 tomorrow. Probably won't be a Lion, but I'm already prepared for that scenario--Holmes is in love with Thibs.
When you watch all those videos together, you realize just how astonishing Hutchinson’s play was this year. It will be interesting to see if one or more GM’s are too clever by half and pass on drafting him. With Jacksonville and the Lions up first, it seems the stage may be set for something stupid.
Is this real life?
(Hutchinson puts Rumpford on his buns.)
You sickos crashed the gfycat servers!
Hey now, we’re not the ones who embedded, what, 27-42 gifs on one page.
I just don't buy the athleticism concerns. His first step is the best I've ever seen. His agility scores are otherworldly. Strength and hand usage is unreal. I disagree with your assertion he's more likely to be the 20th best player in this class than the best.
Reminds me of people making up athleticism concerns for Joey Bosa to have something to nitpick, because they both had simultaneously insanely high floors and also high ceilings. He's the best player in this draft class and we'll look back and laugh at the Jags for passing and everyone for saying he wasn't athletic.
April 27th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
This is outstanding, Seth. Great read for us, and exceptional stuff for fans of whatever team gets him (and others interested that are waiting for him at the first pick or two or three). If anything, downplays his terrific game grades because people don't realize that, say, a +20 UFR grade is phenomenal.
This article was the Aidan Hutchinson of posts. Thanks for the incredible write up.
Now that I've learned that Dan Campbell and Thibodeaux are regular texting buddies, I believe that the Lions are going to pass on drafting Hutchinson even if he's available.
Great stuff. The only consistent complaint I've heard is his lack of bend, which is a little true but feels like something you can get around with superior technique and overall athleticism. Excited to see him succeed this year.
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