What We Are Up Against vs. OSU (The Recruiting Data)
Everyone knows that OSU has a huge talent advantage against us, but I'm not sure how many realize how monumental it truly is. I collected the data using 24/7's composite (apologies for the shitty camera image and poor formatting, I was rushed):
The takeaway is that on average, OSU has recruited 2.7 5-stars per year and 8.8 Top 100 players. They have an average class ranking of 4.6 over the dataset. These numbers are 0.8, 3.2, and 13.7 for Michigan respectively.
Even more stark, over the last four recruiting years (2018 - 2021), OSU has recruited a total of 16 5-stars and 38 Top 100 players. These numbers are 3 and 7 (!) for Michigan respectively. I repeat, OSU has recruited 38 Top 100 players to Michigan's 7, for the players that are most likely contributing to current rosters on this 2021 match-up.
We all know why this talent disparity exists, and that we need to get our shit in order with NIL to have a chance to level the playing field. I'm not here to discuss that so much as just present the data. But this is why OSU has been dominating not just us but the conference... they just have way, way better players, maybe even more than many thought.
I actually think our chances of winning this year are notably higher than I usually would think (10% for years after 2018). I think we have as much as 25% of winning, given how special that this team is, its culture and togetherness, and its leaders (both players and coaches) who simply refuse to go down. I love this team, and I love Coach Harbaugh who has gotten us probably about as far as we can go as long as we fight with one hand tied behind the back. But make no mistake, it will be a pretty monumental upset this weekend if we win from a talent disparity standpoint. But I hope like hell that we do. Go Blue.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Gee, thanks for brightening our Thanksgiving Day with this message of hope and optimism. Hey, would you mind coming over to my house at about 7 PM and punching me in the testicles as hard as you can while I’m laying on the couch in a food coma? That’d be super
November 25th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
The truth hurts, yep.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
In this case maybe more than the dong punch!
November 25th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
sure, and he will probably just kiss your wife on the mouth for extra good measure
November 25th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^
Have you seen Faux Mo’s wife??
November 25th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
It looks like 2017 was the point at which being a regular playoff participant really paid dividends for them in recruiting. They went from landing one 5-star per class to 3+ annually (and seven this year, whew).
Yes, let's expand the playoff field, ASAP.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
It's even worse, they got like 3 / 10 of the Top 10 players this last year. Sigh.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Okay, I would be interested in what the talent gap looked like Harbaugh's first few years compared to now. We pulled in top ten players in DPJ and Gary who were good, but everyone knows underachieved here. There is an element to the playoff not helping things, but Harbaugh didnt help himself with player development either. If we had some elite receivers right now we would be close to OSU's level.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
It’s honestly impressive. I don’t think I’ve read a single post from you in a very long time that you haven’t blamed Harbaugh for something. You posted as many times on the Saturday we lost to MSU as you did the entire month leading up to that day, so why are you even a fan right now? Just root for someone else. You wanted to fire Harbaugh for Campbell, so just cheer for Iowa state and don’t come back. Your negativity is tired and you are a shitty fan
November 25th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
Whatever man, you seem to be the mad one, seemingly every time I post. I'm gonna be in the stands yelling my ass off on Saturday hoping and praying for a win finally after ten years. I'm not gonna pretend like it's not gonna take a near miracle to win. This team has managed to find a way to win with less talent than other previous Harbaugh teams, I hope they can find away again, because talent alone doesnt win games, but it does help. People discount how good of coaching staffs OSU has had for literally 20 years now. Harbaugh's assistant changes seem to have helped a ton over just one year. I will fully admit I was wrong about it and didnt think it would amount to much. I hope it can continue.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
I think Roman Wilson & Andrel Anthony have the potential to be on osu's WR level, but they don't make nearly the commitment to getting them the ball osu does with theirs.
When we lost Ronnie we really took a blow, because not only was he the best WR, he was the only one they really trusted as well.
My prediction is for Michigan to win - or even return to '16-'17 level competitiveness - Roman will make some plays, Andrel will make at least 1 highlight reel TD grab, and All will utilize his advantages, like the game winner vs psu.
And the real wildcard was unveiled last week - Donovan!
November 25th, 2021 at 5:18 PM ^
Kwity Paye, David Ojabo, Aidan Hutchinson, Hassan Haskins, and Ronnie Bell are all complaining about not being developed by the Harbaugh regime,
s/
November 25th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Ronnie Bell is a good player but he is not a #1 receiver. He is a Steve Breaston type aka slot receiver to a Braylon Edwards, Jason Avant, or Manningham which is what we're missing right now. I hope we can overcome it Saturday.
November 25th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
Ronnie's all-too-brief appearance in 2021 says you're wrong about him umx!
Happy Thanksgiving anyway...?♂️
November 25th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
Do you think Ronnie is as good as Avant, Manningham, or Edwards?
November 26th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
Won’t know till next year. He sure looked the part early on, albeit against low level competition. I think Anthony has a chance to be one of the best receivers we’ve had in a long while.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
Expanding the field at this point may not solve anything, at least in the near term. Because the idiots running the NCAA created a positive feedback loop, it feels to me that the recruiting cycle has gone through an unprecedented hysteresis. The gap is so huge, recruits won’t suddenly flock to the #6 team for making the playoffs because the 2nd tier has more turmoil and loses to one of the regulars by 35 points anyway. So nothing would have changed.
It’s a problem that will take far more intelligence and leadership to fix than what caused it, which doesn’t bode well.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
+1 for hysteresis
November 25th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
No, won't happen overnight. OTOH over a 4 year cycle it will in fact make a big difference.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Expanding the playoff eliminates a negative-recruiting point against the second tier: “Why go there when they never make the field?” Recruits just want a shot at the trophy. They figure they’re good enough to put a team over the top.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
Correct, It won't fix the recruiting gap overnight, but expanding the playoffs (and Michigan making them) can't do anything but help.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
And here I thought bagmen were the sole reason for their recruiting success
November 25th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Hutch and Ojabo and H2 do not fall into the star-gazing group. Go blue!
November 25th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
Aidan Hutchinson was a 4 star and # 112 overall.
November 25th, 2021 at 7:58 PM ^
My point exactly. He is projected to be a top 10 pick.
November 25th, 2021 at 8:59 PM ^
Yep, you can see the problem in the title of the OP.
You don't go up against recruiting stats; you go up against a football team.
And you don't go up against them with your recruiting stats; you go up against them with your football team.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
Urban did wonders for them. He showed them how to set up a "modern" SEC-style recruiting pipeline. And, he left before getting caught ("oh, my head hurts!"). Their advantage will last for some time until NIL evens the "paying" field a bit, or UM unexpectedly wins a few times, or some other lucky break.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
It's not just NIL man. Also the lousy 4 team playoff. Needs to be expanded, period. As it stands, it has become nothing but a marketing triumph for the 3-4 teams that regularly make it:
Clemson, Bama, OSU, GA and the occasional Oregon or ND. It's total garbage.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
Bingo. SEC recruiting & preparation involves far more than bagmen - it’s a system that creates a single focus on football and players entirely committed to “pre NFL” activity.
It all ties to actions and the message of priorities. When Tim Williams gets 1/2 game suspension for carrying a non licensed handgun on campus, that relays a big message to current players and recruits about Bama’s priorities. When Hernandez is repeatedly arrested and assaults guys on campus with no punishment by Urban, that sends a message to players and recruits. When Fields at OSU or Burrows at LSU doesn’t step on campus for classes, that sends a clear message to players and recruits.
This isn’t a statement on morality or academics, just a recognition of the culture to create a top tier football factory.
November 25th, 2021 at 5:01 PM ^
Don’t hold your breath on the Michigan money cannon BS. I’ve heard it so often here with no positive results in recruiting
November 25th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
ESPN FPI has us at 38.2% chance to win, which is higher than I thought it would be.
Did you use roster data or just raw recruiting data? Generally even the top crazy recruiting schools lose a fair number to the portal. You also have to consider that OSU’s class last year had 3 QB’s (including two five stars) and there is zero chance all of those guys are going to stick around.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
This was just from 24/7 composite recruiting rankings. I know rosters move around and players transfer / go to NFL etc. Making the implicit assumption here that M and OSU are tied in that regard, which I think is actually too beneficial to M because I think we've had more player losses than them in aggregate (given that they pay people to stay / come back).
November 25th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
247 actually has this cool tool where it accounts for everyone currently on each team’s roster. So it isn’t counting players from 4 years ago that went to the NFL early or players who transferred to other programs, counting those players at their new destination instead. Counting Giles Jackson for Washington instead of Michigan for example.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
Any OSU and Purdue comparison, Northwestern and OSU? Both have defeated OSU since JH has been coach at UM. Talent has played a role and has been an issue. Having said that, as much as I love Harbaugh, his teams haven't been ready for THE GAME and have been a reflection of him as a coach in previous years (include 2016)
I believe Jim Harbaugh is back and I am not sure where he went the past several years, but I feel really good going into this game and think Michigan has a very good chance to win!
Just win!
Go Blue!!
November 25th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
We will never catch them sleeping like they did with Purdue. If you remember that year, we were blasting our opponents and OSU looked TERRIBLE every single week. They scored more points on us (I think we had the #1 def at that point) than any of their other opponents.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
I believe this is the year Michigan wins THE GAME.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
Northwestern last beat OSU in 2004. I think perhaps you meant Iowa. Anyway you slice it, OSU has lost a total of 4 Big Ten games during JH’s tenure and Ryan Day has lost….zero. The Big Ten games that OSU has lost during JH’s tenure have been true aberrations. As far as the blueprint for a Big Ten team beating Day’s Buckeyes, there isn’t one. Here’s hoping we can somehow create one on Saturday. OSU is on the verge of winning their 5th straight conference championship. Only Clemson has more consecutive championships (6), and that’s largely because they play in a far weaker conference overall.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
Yes - Thanks for the correction
November 25th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
You would think that the Big Ten Conference would step in and try to mitigate this lopsided situation, for the health and balance of the conference.
And yet OSU continues to get friendly whistles.
Sigh.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Why would the conference care??? They have a team in OSU that can compete with the other contenders and bring relevance to the B1G. They don’t care if there’s parity in the conference, if someone can get on OSU’s level that’s great, if they can’t no big deal. The B1G just wants to have at least 1 team in the playoff every year. If the B1G slapped down OSU, their talent would most likely end up in the South & not spread out in the B1G. So why would they want that???
November 25th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
Pretty sure it’s safe to assume OSU overlooked Purdue and Iowa (who I assume you meant instead of NW) and that those teams actually AREN’T four touchdowns better.
I’ll also go out on a limb and say Michigan will never be afforded the luxury of being overlooked by OSU. Yes, upsets can happen. Bounces can go your way. You can get a favorable call or two. But “Iowa and Purdue did it, why can’t we?” Isn’t really applicable in a situation where OSU will never play us the way they played them. Those are games OSU can typically sleepwalk through and get away with it, with there being essentially no negative repercussions for losing it. Michigan, again, never has that luxury.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
Roster talent gap between OSU (no. 2) and Michigan (no. 5) is perhaps similar to the talent gap between Michigan (no.5_ and teams ranked 16-22.
In addition, since forever OSU has never really pulled down their performance in the Game by having a stupid game plan and/or pulling dumb play calls at crucial moments. Quite the opposite. OSU has a very smart way of paying offense that puts opposing defenses and (and opposing DC) in 'heads I win tails you lose' situations.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
Freudian slip Ghost? You said OSU has a very smart way of “paying” offense
November 25th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
Ha! You are correct!
November 25th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
The reason this is at least somewhat misleading is that some of the 5 stars end up being overrated and some of the 3-4 stars end up better than expected (e.g. Ojabo). Not saying they don't have more talent, just that it's not as stark as your analysis indicates. That's why we have at least some shot at beating them Saturday.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
Is there any reason to believe that Michigan's 3-4 stars are underrated at a higher rate than OSU's 5/very high 4 stars are overrated?
I would guess it is the opposite. Variance on 5/very high 4 stars panning out is probably lower than the variance on 3/regular 4 stars panning out.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^
There’s also the fact that OSU has their own group of 3*s that were underrated and Michigan has their own group of 4*/5* that were overrated.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
That somewhat misses the point. There are a lot more 3-4 than 5-stars so there's more aggregate variation in that group. As their actual performance moved toward a mean over time there is some equalizing. I said I didn't think we have as much talent as OSU.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
The point of the stars system is that over the course of a recruiting class, and especially over the course of 3-5 recruiting classes for a roster, is that it balances out. They’re right enough, and their “misses” counteract each other enough that they’re rankings as a whole are “accurate.”
“Starts don’t matter” when evaluating an individual recruit. Chris Olave is good. Being a 3* ranked #399 overall has no bearing on how good he is (or would have been at the time). When you expand that to 25 players in a class and 85 players on a roster, it becomes much more “accurate.” Which is why it’s not worth throwing a hissy fit if Michigan takes a lower ranked guy, but it’s more concerning when the entire class becomes made up of lower ranked guys.
The fact that the hits and misses balances back out in the macro, means that it IS as stark as the analysis indicates.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
And the gap is growing based on 24/7s composite roster talent. B is the average of 2015 to 2021 and C is the current team roster. Ala, OSU, GA, LSU, Clemson and Oklahoma have all improved. Making the playoffs seems to be rewarded.
USC and Texas have talent, but coaching matters. FSU has fallen off, ND, Auburn and Michigan seem to be treading water.