Roughly 20% of quarterbacks taken in the first round become a franchise quarterback, so that would be a good bet. Most end up as journeyman backups/bridge QBs or are out of the league within 5 years.
Rare? Sons of athletes have better careers than their fathers all the time.
Steph Curry, Kobe Bryant, Kyrie Irving, Moises Alou, Prince Fielder, Peyton and Eli Manning, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Cal Ripken Jr., Floyd Mayweather Jr., Clay Matthews Jr., Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Christian McCaffrey is one his way, etc., and this is just a start.
National fanbase, and as you said, wide brand recognition. This is about money. Why would they carve out one of the biggest brands when they're trying to drive up revenue?
Of the top 15 most watched regular season college football games last season, noon was the most watched time slot, taking up 7 of the of those 15 spots.
Just because it's primetime doesn't mean it's the most attractive time slot for football on a Saturday.
Yeah, Pippen was criminally underpaid while he was with Chicago, partially due to poor advice and partially due to not understanding his worth until later. He still cashed out well with the Rockets and Blazers, but his career earnings are a lot lower than they could/should have been.
Ticket sales from basketball wouldn't cover $10.5 mil. Michigan makes about 90% of its ticket sales revenue (usually around $50-60 mil total) from football. So, we're already talking about operating at cost or at a deficit just to build a college basketball team at a football school.
Now, a team competing for titles would naturally generate higher ticket sales, but I'm not so sure it would be enough of an increase to justify the NIL budget.
You're getting downvoted, but our tackles were getting dusted with high frequency before we decided to keep it on the ground, and guys were making some dumb mistakes, likelt due to crowd noise. Moral of the story is that was a good move strategy-wise, but it also seemed as much out of necessity as it was "they can't stop the run."
Yeah, I think you're actually right, and I am thinking of the year before. Moral of the story either way is that it's way too early to be judging a recruiting class.
Remember last year when MSU, OSU, and Notre Dame fans were dunking on Michigan's recruiting class in March and April and it turned out just fine? Let's pump the brakes a bit on the state of the class at this point, especially considering they turned over almost the entirety of the coaching staff.
Fun fact: The Super Bowl makes up the entirety of the list for top 10 most-watched telecasts (by average viewership) of all-time. Even further, it holds 19 of the top 20 spots. The only non-sports/non-Super Bowl telecast to crack the top 20 is the series finale of M*A*S*H in 1983.
The SEC isn't a powerhouse basketball conference, so that isn't saying much. Since the year 2000, Arkansas has missed the tournament more times than they've made it
Tubby and Cal both win national titles at Kentucky. The Minnesota's and Arkansas's of the world don't get the chance to hire a guy who's already reached the mountain top very often. They ain't Duke or North Carolina; you take a chance on the guy who's already done it and see what he's got left.
In football, it's less. ~13 programs have won close to 80% of all AP national championships, not in the past 10, 20 or 30 years -- all time. The AP began naming national champions in the 1930s.
Let that sink in. College football is the furthest thing from a level playing field in all of American major sports.
2017 also brought four WRs (DPJ, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, and Oliver Martin), five if you want to count Brad Hawkins who was a receiver coming out of high school.
There is an excellent documentary about the Barkley Marathons. I had never heard of it until the doc popped up as a suggestion somewhere, and I was pleasantly surprised by how fascinating it is.
If somebody made a documentary or series for every year, I'd watch it every single time.
This. If athletic departments operated like fan sentiment does, teams would cycles through two or three coaches in a single season.
Whether we like it or not, Michigan handles decisions like this as a major corporation would, which takes a little longer but often has longer term thinking in mind rather than knee-jerk decision-making.
Also, Jerry Stackhouse had head coaching experience. It may not have been in college, but he spent time in the G-League, many years as an assistant in the NBA, and was considered a "rising star" in basketball coaching ranks before coming to Vandy. He wasn't a former-player fresh off taking his jersey off. He'd already cut his teeth and had a strong reputation. Pretending he was some inexperienced guy who only got a foot in the door because he played professionally is foolish and shows a lack of knowledge on the subject.
I love this site for football content, but it has a lot of blind spots when it comes to the shooty hoops
Also Jerry Stackhouse had head coaching experience in the G-League. He even won Coach of the Year and a championship, as well as had several years as an NBA assistant.
There are also several coaches who were former players with little or no head coaching experience who have been very successful. OP is grasping at low-hanging fruit.
If we're going to split hairs, then it technically has still been only one year since this season's tournament hasn't started yet nor have set a complete field, and technically Michigan could still earn a bid by winning the B1G tournament. Technically.
A bunch of dudebros with Twitter accounts and super-homer regional beat reporters is still nothing compared to NY media and the outsized attention the city's teams get from every major media outlet simply due to the size of both the market and it's fanbase.
You have to be really crazy or in a really precarious situation to gain mainstream attention. For the NY market, you often simply have to be in the NY market because that market gets more eyeballs worldwide than any other.
The thing is, though, that none of this is new other than it being openly "legal." Compensation without regulation or guidelines has been happening since the 1900s. Now that it can happen out in the open under the guise of NIL hasn't changed anything other than the fact programs are getting much more aggressive about it, probably spending a bunch more, and players can transfer freely now, which just exacerbates the issue even further.
Major college sports, especially football, have always been a pretty wild, wild west landscape. Now, it's just openly wild, wild west so programs and players are acting just a little more brazenly, especially since many are now able to hide behind the threat of legal action from their home state governments.
I love comments like this that state we definitely do/don't know what players are getting in NIL offers and how they are more/less than we think as if we can actually verify any of this and all these numbers aren't hearsay.
I don't know either way, but I would not be shocked to see multi-million dollar offers being passed around like hotcakes for a lot of high-level players.
Agree with this. A lot of fans seem to be very optimistic with Tuttle Time, and incredibly excited for Orji, but we haven't seen anything from either one of them.
Tuttle is entering year 7 with a substantial injury history and little else of substance. He could be our Stetson Bennett or he could be Shea Patterson 2.0, which the 1.0 version doesn't come with much fanfare these days.
Orji hasn't even thrown a single pass yet. We don't even know if he can do the "quarterback" parts of playing quarterback even remotely well yet.
I don't say any of this as doom and gloom, but I think a lot of fans have forgotten how frustrated and negative they were just a few short years ago when this team had good-not-great quarterback play, which is what Michigan might be staring down as a ceiling next season.
I don't think anything like this would happen for at least close to a decade. CBS has an almost $9 Billion broadcast deal with the NCAA for March Madness that runs through 2032. The NCAA also owns copyrights to March Madness. In addition to all the other logistical nightmares breaking away from the NCAA would create, broadcast partners who already have massive money on the line are not going to be on board with junking it cuz footbaawwll.
Counterpoint: is it "right" that the Rutgers and Indianas of the world have to compete in a rags versus riches environment where the deck is massively stacked against them even with even revenue distribution?
Just imagine being in a foot race that typically takes six minutes or so and two or three of your opponents get a 2.5-minute head start. That's about how it feels to be Rutgers or Indiana in the B1G.
College football has never been anywhere close to a level playing field, and pretending that every program is playing with the same level is resources is just silly. CFB is essentially like if the NFL had no salary cap and five times the amount of teams. A select few are going to absolutely bully the rest of the group.
This. Denard was electric in space, but being a QB who can run and make guys miss on a scramble is much different than a RB who knows how to let blocks develop because there are multiple defenders waiting and expecting you to be in a spot and/or run routes out of the backfield. It's not just about being a fast guy with the ball in your hands, and even running off an option read is different than taking a handoff and following your linemen's lead. As great as Denard was, he was not a guy like Barry Sanders who could make the driest jersey feel like it was coated in oil if you were trying to take him down between the tackles.
If we need a case study, look no further than Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum. One has possessed the vision and patience to make the most of his carries while the other has routinely picked the wrong lane or hesitated just enough to lose leverage, but if you asked which one was the better athlete, who would you choose? There is a lot more to bring a RB than simply being able to get the edge and run past dudes.
I'm not as sold on Denard as a RB, especially in the NFL. He was a bit undersized and would have needed to bulk up a bit to withstand the rigors of an NFL schedule, but he also was a great running in space. I'm not sure how that would translate to being a primary, non-QB ball carrier in a complex rushing scheme. I feel like he would have been best suited as a slot receiver/gadget guy, but he obviously never had much development in that role.
There is also nobody even remotely in his proximity until he is 15-20 yards down field on that play. That's a lot of time to wind up.
Agreed on his vision, though. Hitting the wrong gap or finding the right one a touch late was a big issue for him last season and cost him some yardage.
Interestingly, I see the opposite. Once he's up to speed, he isn't caught very often unless a safety is in position and takes a good angle on him. However, it takes him a bit to get to top speed. So many times last season he had a wide open lane that he couldn't burst into quick enough and it either closed up or allowed a defender to trip him up before he could get to open field.
If there is really anyone left that is still shocked that programs are operating outside the rules, then I've got some real bad news in the form of a history lesson in the sport of college football.
tl;dr version is it has been happening since literally the dawn of the sport. Tampering, paying players, forging documents, increasing emphasis on the commercialization of the sport, etc. has been a part of college football since the late 1800s. There is no older tradition in college football than corruption.
Who said they need to trade for a legitimate NBA star? I think acquiring an established star at this point is pie in the sky thinking. Short of doing that (which won't happen), you have to hit in the draft. The NBA is the hardest league to build a contender in because you need some star power, and for 80% of the league, the only way to do that is through the draft.
Once you have a star and start improving the team, if you have the flexible contracts and space, then you can catch a star looking for an out elsewhere. If you start to get into the upper echelon of the conference, then anything is on the table. Getting a disgruntled star for cheap in a trade, attracting a star who wants to win in free agency, etc.
Until that point, a team like Detroit has to acquire picks and flexibility so they can take as many shots in the draft as they can while maintaining the ability to tweak the roster if they hit in the draft.
Recent Comments
Herm Edwards had an eye for talent.
The portal giveth, the portal taketh, and now the portal returneth.
Do you have data to back that up? All the guys I just listed had parents who played at a professional level, and it is just scratching the surface.
Roughly 20% of quarterbacks taken in the first round become a franchise quarterback, so that would be a good bet. Most end up as journeyman backups/bridge QBs or are out of the league within 5 years.
Rare? Sons of athletes have better careers than their fathers all the time.
Steph Curry, Kobe Bryant, Kyrie Irving, Moises Alou, Prince Fielder, Peyton and Eli Manning, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Cal Ripken Jr., Floyd Mayweather Jr., Clay Matthews Jr., Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Christian McCaffrey is one his way, etc., and this is just a start.
National fanbase, and as you said, wide brand recognition. This is about money. Why would they carve out one of the biggest brands when they're trying to drive up revenue?
Of the top 15 most watched regular season college football games last season, noon was the most watched time slot, taking up 7 of the of those 15 spots.
Just because it's primetime doesn't mean it's the most attractive time slot for football on a Saturday.
Yeah, Pippen was criminally underpaid while he was with Chicago, partially due to poor advice and partially due to not understanding his worth until later. He still cashed out well with the Rockets and Blazers, but his career earnings are a lot lower than they could/should have been.
Ticket sales from basketball wouldn't cover $10.5 mil. Michigan makes about 90% of its ticket sales revenue (usually around $50-60 mil total) from football. So, we're already talking about operating at cost or at a deficit just to build a college basketball team at a football school.
Now, a team competing for titles would naturally generate higher ticket sales, but I'm not so sure it would be enough of an increase to justify the NIL budget.
You're getting downvoted, but our tackles were getting dusted with high frequency before we decided to keep it on the ground, and guys were making some dumb mistakes, likelt due to crowd noise. Moral of the story is that was a good move strategy-wise, but it also seemed as much out of necessity as it was "they can't stop the run."
Oh crap, are we the new Georgia?
In all seriousness, an Uber or taxi are cheaper than the alternative. Be safe and be smart, folks.
Yeah, I think you're actually right, and I am thinking of the year before. Moral of the story either way is that it's way too early to be judging a recruiting class.
Remember last year when MSU, OSU, and Notre Dame fans were dunking on Michigan's recruiting class in March and April and it turned out just fine? Let's pump the brakes a bit on the state of the class at this point, especially considering they turned over almost the entirety of the coaching staff.
Fun fact: The Super Bowl makes up the entirety of the list for top 10 most-watched telecasts (by average viewership) of all-time. Even further, it holds 19 of the top 20 spots. The only non-sports/non-Super Bowl telecast to crack the top 20 is the series finale of M*A*S*H in 1983.
Even if we have the bag to throw, there ain't any of those guys left and/or not likely to enter after spring. This team is rolling with what it's got.
It's pretty simple: the top three teams from each division are in. After that, they take the top two of the remaining teams regardless of division.
The SEC isn't a powerhouse basketball conference, so that isn't saying much. Since the year 2000, Arkansas has missed the tournament more times than they've made it
Tubby and Cal both win national titles at Kentucky. The Minnesota's and Arkansas's of the world don't get the chance to hire a guy who's already reached the mountain top very often. They ain't Duke or North Carolina; you take a chance on the guy who's already done it and see what he's got left.
Funny what a national championship and the longest active streak of consecutive tournament appearances will do for you.
That being said, Go Blue! 〽️
In football, it's less. ~13 programs have won close to 80% of all AP national championships, not in the past 10, 20 or 30 years -- all time. The AP began naming national champions in the 1930s.
Let that sink in. College football is the furthest thing from a level playing field in all of American major sports.
2017 also brought four WRs (DPJ, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, and Oliver Martin), five if you want to count Brad Hawkins who was a receiver coming out of high school.
There is an excellent documentary about the Barkley Marathons. I had never heard of it until the doc popped up as a suggestion somewhere, and I was pleasantly surprised by how fascinating it is.
If somebody made a documentary or series for every year, I'd watch it every single time.
Agreed. This is an argument I could definitely get behind. NBA and NCAA can be two totally different universes.
This. If athletic departments operated like fan sentiment does, teams would cycles through two or three coaches in a single season.
Whether we like it or not, Michigan handles decisions like this as a major corporation would, which takes a little longer but often has longer term thinking in mind rather than knee-jerk decision-making.
Also, Jerry Stackhouse had head coaching experience. It may not have been in college, but he spent time in the G-League, many years as an assistant in the NBA, and was considered a "rising star" in basketball coaching ranks before coming to Vandy. He wasn't a former-player fresh off taking his jersey off. He'd already cut his teeth and had a strong reputation. Pretending he was some inexperienced guy who only got a foot in the door because he played professionally is foolish and shows a lack of knowledge on the subject.
I love this site for football content, but it has a lot of blind spots when it comes to the shooty hoops
Also Jerry Stackhouse had head coaching experience in the G-League. He even won Coach of the Year and a championship, as well as had several years as an NBA assistant.
There are also several coaches who were former players with little or no head coaching experience who have been very successful. OP is grasping at low-hanging fruit.
If we're going to split hairs, then it technically has still been only one year since this season's tournament hasn't started yet nor have set a complete field, and technically Michigan could still earn a bid by winning the B1G tournament. Technically.
It's been years? Last year was the first year Michigan wasn't in the tournament since 2015.
Two words: Matt Flynn.
A bunch of dudebros with Twitter accounts and super-homer regional beat reporters is still nothing compared to NY media and the outsized attention the city's teams get from every major media outlet simply due to the size of both the market and it's fanbase.
You have to be really crazy or in a really precarious situation to gain mainstream attention. For the NY market, you often simply have to be in the NY market because that market gets more eyeballs worldwide than any other.
Everybody steals signs? Next you'll tell me that everyone is tampering with other team's players!
Anybody who thought NIL was going to even the playing field was incredibly naive.
The thing is, though, that none of this is new other than it being openly "legal." Compensation without regulation or guidelines has been happening since the 1900s. Now that it can happen out in the open under the guise of NIL hasn't changed anything other than the fact programs are getting much more aggressive about it, probably spending a bunch more, and players can transfer freely now, which just exacerbates the issue even further.
Major college sports, especially football, have always been a pretty wild, wild west landscape. Now, it's just openly wild, wild west so programs and players are acting just a little more brazenly, especially since many are now able to hide behind the threat of legal action from their home state governments.
I love comments like this that state we definitely do/don't know what players are getting in NIL offers and how they are more/less than we think as if we can actually verify any of this and all these numbers aren't hearsay.
I don't know either way, but I would not be shocked to see multi-million dollar offers being passed around like hotcakes for a lot of high-level players.
Agree with this. A lot of fans seem to be very optimistic with Tuttle Time, and incredibly excited for Orji, but we haven't seen anything from either one of them.
Tuttle is entering year 7 with a substantial injury history and little else of substance. He could be our Stetson Bennett or he could be Shea Patterson 2.0, which the 1.0 version doesn't come with much fanfare these days.
Orji hasn't even thrown a single pass yet. We don't even know if he can do the "quarterback" parts of playing quarterback even remotely well yet.
I don't say any of this as doom and gloom, but I think a lot of fans have forgotten how frustrated and negative they were just a few short years ago when this team had good-not-great quarterback play, which is what Michigan might be staring down as a ceiling next season.
And thus you have summed up both how hard it is to win in the NFL and how hard it is to make it in the first place.
When you have the top 0.3% of all athletes in the sport/world, inches or less can make all the difference.
I don't think anything like this would happen for at least close to a decade. CBS has an almost $9 Billion broadcast deal with the NCAA for March Madness that runs through 2032. The NCAA also owns copyrights to March Madness. In addition to all the other logistical nightmares breaking away from the NCAA would create, broadcast partners who already have massive money on the line are not going to be on board with junking it cuz footbaawwll.
Things might get really, really awkward soon.
Counterpoint: is it "right" that the Rutgers and Indianas of the world have to compete in a rags versus riches environment where the deck is massively stacked against them even with even revenue distribution?
Just imagine being in a foot race that typically takes six minutes or so and two or three of your opponents get a 2.5-minute head start. That's about how it feels to be Rutgers or Indiana in the B1G.
College football has never been anywhere close to a level playing field, and pretending that every program is playing with the same level is resources is just silly. CFB is essentially like if the NFL had no salary cap and five times the amount of teams. A select few are going to absolutely bully the rest of the group.
This. Denard was electric in space, but being a QB who can run and make guys miss on a scramble is much different than a RB who knows how to let blocks develop because there are multiple defenders waiting and expecting you to be in a spot and/or run routes out of the backfield. It's not just about being a fast guy with the ball in your hands, and even running off an option read is different than taking a handoff and following your linemen's lead. As great as Denard was, he was not a guy like Barry Sanders who could make the driest jersey feel like it was coated in oil if you were trying to take him down between the tackles.
If we need a case study, look no further than Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum. One has possessed the vision and patience to make the most of his carries while the other has routinely picked the wrong lane or hesitated just enough to lose leverage, but if you asked which one was the better athlete, who would you choose? There is a lot more to bring a RB than simply being able to get the edge and run past dudes.
.
I'm not as sold on Denard as a RB, especially in the NFL. He was a bit undersized and would have needed to bulk up a bit to withstand the rigors of an NFL schedule, but he also was a great running in space. I'm not sure how that would translate to being a primary, non-QB ball carrier in a complex rushing scheme. I feel like he would have been best suited as a slot receiver/gadget guy, but he obviously never had much development in that role.
There is also nobody even remotely in his proximity until he is 15-20 yards down field on that play. That's a lot of time to wind up.
Agreed on his vision, though. Hitting the wrong gap or finding the right one a touch late was a big issue for him last season and cost him some yardage.
Interestingly, I see the opposite. Once he's up to speed, he isn't caught very often unless a safety is in position and takes a good angle on him. However, it takes him a bit to get to top speed. So many times last season he had a wide open lane that he couldn't burst into quick enough and it either closed up or allowed a defender to trip him up before he could get to open field.
If there is really anyone left that is still shocked that programs are operating outside the rules, then I've got some real bad news in the form of a history lesson in the sport of college football.
tl;dr version is it has been happening since literally the dawn of the sport. Tampering, paying players, forging documents, increasing emphasis on the commercialization of the sport, etc. has been a part of college football since the late 1800s. There is no older tradition in college football than corruption.
I'm not so sure he was going to stick around past this season either way. He'll be draft eligible next year, and he's got eyes on the NFL.
A classic Weebl. Another great: https://youtu.be/DoyBgTAZrFw?feature=shared
Also the NFL not wanting someone cuz of PEDs? That's laughable.
This board: "LOL, nobody is getting huge NIL bags to play basketball. That's absurd."
Also this board: "Who is Hunter Dickinson?"
What the actual [expletive] is this video? Lol
I get the sense it was kind of mutual, and UCLA was fine with him exploring so they didn't have to fire him.
Who said they need to trade for a legitimate NBA star? I think acquiring an established star at this point is pie in the sky thinking. Short of doing that (which won't happen), you have to hit in the draft. The NBA is the hardest league to build a contender in because you need some star power, and for 80% of the league, the only way to do that is through the draft.
Once you have a star and start improving the team, if you have the flexible contracts and space, then you can catch a star looking for an out elsewhere. If you start to get into the upper echelon of the conference, then anything is on the table. Getting a disgruntled star for cheap in a trade, attracting a star who wants to win in free agency, etc.
Until that point, a team like Detroit has to acquire picks and flexibility so they can take as many shots in the draft as they can while maintaining the ability to tweak the roster if they hit in the draft.