The Athletic Ranks Michigan #1
Paywalled, but the argument is that Michigan has better wins over OSU (5) and PSU (9), where Georgia's best wins are over Tennessee (6) and Oregon (12). Both teams have had scares; Michigan with Illinois and Georgia with Missouri. Some strength of schedule metrics have Michigan with a stronger SOS and strength of record. And while UGA beat UM last year, this year's rankings should be based on this year's results. Last, UGA may leap back to #1 with a win over LSU in the SEC title game.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^
Makes sense, I'm not worried about it because yes, UGA will leap back over Michigan with a win over LSU.
But it is something to talk about, I guess.
After a stressful week last year, I'll take UGA, Michigan, TCU and USC wins this weekend.
Four uneventful, comfortable victories. Keeps OSU out.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:41 AM ^
Let's go chalk!
November 28th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Wouldn't we want chaos though... unless the thinking is if LSU wins then both LSU and UGA get in?
November 28th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
My thought is the only thing that chaos does is potentially allow OSU in the playoff or potentially match us up against Georgia in the semis instead of a likely "easier" opponent in TCU or USC.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
It was an extremely thin shot for a 2-loss team to get in. There is no chance in hell a 3-loss team gets in, even with a win against UGA. No chance.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
Va - I agree about a three loss LSU. That being said, I would enjoy seeing LSU win on Saturday - just to see what the Selection Committee would do.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
So the SEC champ doesn't get in (if they have 3 losses)?
Good luck with that!
November 28th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Zero chance a 3 loss LSU team gets in.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
I didn't read the replies to this yet, but no way LSU gets in with 3 losses. That's like saying Utah gets in with a win over USC. If LSU wins, we may get OSU in a 1 v 4 rematch.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
Actually had to scroll down to find LSU, as I figured they were another top 10 SEC team. Nope. 17.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:56 AM ^
and, their QB is hurt - and he's what makes them go. im not sure purdue isnt close enough that it shouldnt matter.
But with SEC and recency bias, georgia, i'm sure will be #1.
Just to be clear - when tennessee took down bama ... barely... with no defense... and AT HOME... they vaulted to #1.
When we beat #2, in their place, in a rivalry game, in an epic beat down, and played great in EVERY phase ... they should grow a pair and move us up.
I think though, ultimately, they will make sure that M-OSU is not a matchup in the first round - at least i would think so... honestly, after that beatdown, the luster has to be gone for them. it wasnt the game of the century - we took their hearts. And, if USC or TCU falter, osu probably sneaks in at #4, so they'd want them to face Georgia... not us.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^
Don't forget about UGA's snoozers against Kent St (!!) and Kentucky as well.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
As recently as Saturday - while Michigan was playing in Columbus, Georgia was dominating Georgia Tech by a score of 10-7 at halftime.
Georgia is a very solid team. But, IMO, so is Michigan.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Beat Purdue!!!
November 28th, 2022 at 8:51 AM ^
Any chance the CFP rankings have us leapfrog Georgia on Tuesday?
November 28th, 2022 at 8:53 AM ^
A chance? Yes. Likely? IMO, with the SEC love from the Selection Committee - unlikely.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:05 AM ^
I actually think there is a decent chance that we leap Georgia. The committee clearly has an SEC bias, so my feeling is that they will want to give Georgia the easier matchup. Assuming all 4 of UGA, UM, TCU & USC win, TCU looks like the weakest of the 4. I could see the committee putting UM at 1 to give UGA the matchup against TCU rather than a USC offense that can be scary good at times.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
It wouldn't surprise me either if we jump Georgia.
Either way, its clear the CFP committee will manipulate the final rankings to get the matchup they want. If they want Georgia vs. TCU, they'll make it happen whether 1v4 or 2v3.
November 28th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
I don't buy the SEC bias narrative, or the they-care-about-ratings narrative. All conferences are pretty equally represented. They gain nothing from TV ratings. The committee is just incompetent.
Also, even if the committee was biased in favor of Georgia, they'd still want to give them the 1 seed so Georgia can choose the Peach Bowl and play in front of a friendly crowd.
If all the favorites win, I think there's a >90% chance that it's 1) UGA 2) U-M 3) TCU 4) USC. Which I would like. TCU is very beatable, and USC-Georgia could expose each other's weaknesses.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
No. Georgia is an undefeated defending national champ. They get to be first until proven otherwise.
Do I think there's cracks in the armor? Absolutely. Do I think Michigan can exploit those cracks? Very much so. But until they do, I'm OK with UGA getting benefit of the doubt.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
Not exactly apples to apples since Georgia has still looked pretty dominant most of the year but 2014 FSU was undefeated defending champ and ended up at #3 in the rankings after not looking so hot most of the year.
Obviously different committee but it's not a given.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
Blinkin - I agree that Georgia is defending National Champs. And, that Georgia is a strong team.
However, what happened in 2021 is history - and shouldn’t be taken into consideration. Last year doesn’t - or, IMO - shouldn’t - matter.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
I agree with you that it "shouldn't" matter. But perception hangovers exist in CFB, always have.
The good news is that if Michigan wins 3 more games, they will leave absolutely no doubt.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
A case can be made. Michigan has far and away the best win of the season, and its not even close. Better than Georgia's win over Tennessee, better than Tennessee beating Alabama. Both of those wins came at home against a team that has clearly shown it was not deserving of its #1 ranking. Michigan absolutely whooped the #2 team in the nation in its own house and held an offense stockpiled with NFL talent to three points in the second half. Three. Points.
That said, if you expect it to happen, then expect to be disappointed. Georgia is the defending champion and is undefeated. I think they're going to get the Alabama treatment: they will stay #1 until someone physically unseats them from their perch.
Which is fine. Personally, I think they've earned that right.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
+1, informative
November 28th, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^
This is nice and all but Georgia should remain number 1 until they lose. It's pretty clear they're a strong team on both sides of the ball. Not as great as last year, but still pretty damn good.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Exactly. We can earn a unanimous #1 by continuing to win. There's no need to have a committee "give" it to us.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
agreed. defending national champs, undefeated, 26-1 over the last two seasons? you get to be #1 until someone proves otherwise.
i'd also add that i think we're the best team in the country right now. but you gotta kill the king.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Before season started, I bet $300 on us to win title at 50 to 1. Had to do it, because our odds should have been 8 to 1 or so... figured we'd be undefeated up to OSU and I was gonna hedge vs OSU but didn't.
Now I look, we are 3-1, while TCU and USC are both 14-1, while Georgia is 1-1.75. I would imagine this odds for Georgia in the final game, but not now.. I thought this then, and still now... Vegas has lost its mind...
November 28th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
If Michigan is 1, OSU should be locked out. No one wants an OSU semifinal. The game is the game. There can only be one.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
From a selfish perspective, I want us to finish #2 in the playoff rankings. I live in California and have every intention of going to the semifinal game. As far as I'm aware, the #1 team gets to pick which bowl they prefer, and I'm assuming Michigan would pick the Peach Bowl over the Fiesta Bowl since Atlanta is closer to Ann Arbor to Phoenix?
November 28th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
I want #2 because I want to play #3 TCU instead of #4 USC (assuming 1-4 win this weekend) in the semifinal
November 28th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
That's also in my mind. I'd rather it be Georgie, Michigan, TCU, USC than Michigan, Georgia, USC, TCU (which would give us the same matchup....not quite sure a scenario exists that would make the 1v4 Michigan v TCU, but for the sake of argument, let's just say it's possible).
November 28th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
A 1v4 Michigan vs TCU is entirely possible, if TCU barely wins, or barely loses vs kstate and usc demolishes Utah. Of course, that’d have to mean that the committee ranks Michigan above Georgia, which while it is not impossible, it is unlikely.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
i've actively (and with prejudice) ignored literally every single "playoff scenario" discussion up to this point. there was too much football to be played, too many losses to be had by every team...and it was simple for us - keep winning, and we're in. period.
but now...oh, yeah.
anyway. there's no chance that either TCU (or USC, for that matter) get in with a loss this weekend.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
Michigan has an excellent shot to win the natty. Stay focused and go 1-0 each week. I wish we weren’t ranked #1. Let some in the media continue to make excuses for OSU and not give Michigan their just due. #GoBlue
November 28th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Whatever ranking allows us to avoid Georgia and USC in the semis is fine with me.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
agreed. we're the best team in the country right now...and by december 31 we're gonna be a fully armed and operational death star.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
I won't be mad if Georgia remains #1, but Michigan moving all the way up would definitely be worthy. Michigan has the best win of anyone in the country right now, and potentially the best two win combo as well.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
I agree with every placement on the Athletics rankings. Tennessee over Bama, LSU out of the top 10, USC over OSU, Michigan over Georgia.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:06 PM ^
Not cowards.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
I want TCU in the playoffs so I would rather not jump Georgia.