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FORMATION NOTES: Bog standard from both sides, with Iowa barely deviating from their 4-3 cover two except on extreme passing downs. Michigan was much lighter on 2 TE formations with McKeon out.

Default Iowa.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Patterson at QB, usual on OL except for five Ryan Hayes snaps at RT.

Eubanks omnipresent at TE with All getting a dozen or so snaps as a second TE. Usual Collins/DPJ/Black/Bell rotation at WR, with more snaps for everyone because of a lack of 2 TE sets. Sainrisitil got in a little too.

Charbonnet back up to about half the snaps in Michigan's RB platoon with most of the rest going to Wilson and Turner; Haskins poked his head in. Mason got the wildcat snap.

[After the JUMP: several people asking why I did this in the comments, as per usual]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	5.5	Run	Speed option	Charbonnet	7
This isn’t much of an option as Patterson pitches it immediately despite the DE being optioned being nowhere near him. DE tries to chip Mayfield as he releases, a bit odd. He’s flanked easily, Eubanks and DPJ get blocks; Eubanks(-0.5) lets his guy over the top but stays attached; DPJ(+0.5) does better, and the S can’t get there until a nice gain is achieved. RPS +1.
M32	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Insert iso	Charbonnet	7
Eubanks moves backside to give the appearance of split zone but Runyan is blocking the end and Eubanks is pulling tight to the line looking to find his way through it to a linebacker once he gets to the backside. DE runs himself out of play; Runyan doesn’t have to do anything; Bredeson(+1) gets an extended second level block; Ruiz(-0.5) doesn’t do much with the NT, getting no push and losing him outside; Eubanks gets caught up on this and doesn’t get through. Iowa MLB picks up a minus, getting entirely lost; Charbonnet(+1) is able to pop just outside of the NT and get upfield inside of the Bredeson block for a nice gain. RPS +1, I guess, but I don’t know what the MLB could have been keying on.
M39	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	PA cross	Bell	Inc
PA, waggle action, flood route. I was too harsh on Patterson on this one, because Collins(route –) inexplicably stops, so instead of a nice completion after Patterson escapes pressure he nearly throws an INT because Collins didn’t run his CB into the endzone. (CA+, 0, protection N/A)
M39	2	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Dumpoff	Turner	Inc
This on the other hand, yikes. Patterson has Eubanks in front of the zone for six yards; Black is open on a similar hitch to the field. DPJ is on a downfield route I can’t see but he’s either taking two guys with him or open so the play structure should take him to the open underneath routes already mentioned. He instead checks down to a covered dumpoff route and puts it yards over Turner’s head. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M39	3	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Okie two	6	Pass	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Onwenu(-1) and Ruiz(-1) split on a stunt and let a DE right up the middle. Patterson heaves it off his back foot just to get rid of it. I’m filing this as a PR but the endzone replay shows that Patterson could have gotten off throws to open guys. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O18	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Post	Black	Inc
Clear interference on a cleanly beat DB pulls Black back just enough for the ball to clang off one outstretched hand. This was a decisive throw on which Patterson read the coverage right. (CA, 1, protection 2/2, refs -2)
O18	2	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Insert iso	Charbonnet	6
Iso with All(+2) folding inside of Runyan on the snap. He takes on the MLB and hammers(?!) him. This guy goes for a ride. Runyan(+0.5) does enough on a kickout; Eubanks and Bredeson(+0.5) both get push second level blocks on which they can’t seal with bad angles to do so; those guys converge on Charbonnet. Bredeson got a LOS chip so he gets a half point.
O12	3	4	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Drag	Collins	2
The drag after which Gattis yells at Collins, for reasons that are probably bad? Patterson waits forever to throw this and Collins drifts from 3 yards to 2, getting immediately whacked. Patterson comes off DPJ on the outside late and throws this second read after Collins has cleared the opposite hash; if he gets to this quicker Collins can lunge forward and convert. (BR, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(29), 3-0, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Post	Collins	51
Playside S goes with a DPJ out route and there’s nobody to the inside of the field, post time. Collins has a DB with outside position; Patterson’s throw is a little upfield and takes Collins into the CB instead of extending him further away with the separation he’s already gotten but Collins makes it work like he usually does. (CA, 2, protection 2/2) RPS +1.
O19	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Inside zone	Haskins	4
Jet fake, hand off up middle. With All flaring out to lead out the jet, should it happen, and no one going with this, It’s a 6 v 7 box. Michigan blocks this up but Iowa is able to funnel to the free hitter. Bredeson(+2) gets a pancake, room backside. Runyan blocks down on an OLB; Iowa swaps him with another guy and the second OLB is able to hit Haskins in the hole. Eubanks(+0.5) and Ruiz(+0.5) both got solid blocks. RPS -1, tough to get it all right and get four.
O15	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over SAM	7	Pass	PA corner	Collins	Inc
Collins does manage to break back outside of the CB despite that guy’s outside leverage; he should probably take this more horizontal after he does; not a lot of separation. Patterson misses, gotta give your guy a shot at it especially because in this position the possibility of a PI is high. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O15	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Hitch	Sainristil	8
This is just a hitch at the sticks that the CB has no shot on. Patterson leads Sainristil away from him nicely. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O7	1	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even SAM	7	Run	Arc zone give	Charbonnet	5
Good frippery here as DPJ’s jet fake is modified into an arc block with Patterson following it, threatening a keep. This widens out four Iowa players for four Michigan ones, including relevant unblocked box LB. Onwenu(+3) first flings a DT down the line, shoving him so far that Ruiz doesn’t have to touch him to seal him, and then buries a linebacker in the endzone. Mayfield(+1) gets a couple yards of depth on a DE; Charbonnet(+0.5) is able to get that guy to commit to one side of Mayfield and then cuts right off of him for a productive redzone run. RPS +1.
O2	2	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Goal line	9	Run	Arc zone give	Charbonnet	2
Same play, LB ripping at mesh point successfully optioned, easy. Mayfield(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) open up more room than Charbonnet needs. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-3, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 even	5.5	Run	Inside zone	Turner	5
RPO, LB holds back so this is a 5.5 man box with a safety filling. This probably should break bigger as Turner(-1) has a zero-cut run where he just goes off tackle into the filling S. Bredeson(+1) hits playside DT and then pops out on a charging LB, moving him. Ruiz then has this guy and doesn’t go anywhere with him, push. Turner goes right off between this and gets tackled; if he has a cut here behind Ruiz he’s getting more. Also Turner(-3) fumbles, so not great. RPS +1.
M45	2	5	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over SAM	7.5	Pass	Corner	Black	INT
Patterson tries to throw over Stone, who is dropping directly into this corner route; this is a successful high low of the CB and the flat’s open. Woof. (BRX, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 10-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M31	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6	Run	Zone stretch	Charbonnet	-3
DE widens out presnap and Mayfield(-1) leaves immediately for the second level. Eubanks(-2) gets run over and lets his guy through but cumong where is the chip. Ruiz(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) cut off a DT; other LB shoots the gap behind this so if M can execute this frontside block they can get something.
M28	2	13	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	7
Patterson does need to move this time as Epenesa bull rushes Runyan(-1) to the QB; Runyan is able to hang in and keep grabbing him to slow Epenesa down. We don’t get a downfield replay to see if his first read is open but once he breaks forward in the pocket he gets a decent gain. (SCR, N/A, protection ½)
M35	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Okie two	7	Pass	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Press man shown and run by Iowa with a DB at the LOS backing out to make this a two high look; Iowa sends five. DT gets through as Ruiz(-2) never reads the stunt; Onwenu blocks this guy for a bit but then sees the looper and gets over, which frees up the DT. Patterson chucks it away. Four verts it looks like, which is not good against this coverage. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-0, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	3
Collins runs a route and Patterson pretends to throw him a hitch, which is super open, but I kind of think this is just window dressing and it’s not really an RPO. Split zone, scrape on for Iowa, DE charging down line behind Mayfield. Eubanks hits him, stalemate but basically over the G or even C. Rest of the line cranks Iowa. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) shoot a DT three yards downfield and seal him. Mayfield(+0.5) gets a second level block. Bredeson’s guy is able to fight to the hole but a couple yards downfield and falling; Charbonnet has to pick around the Eubanks block, which is a push block happening too close to the gap, and burrows for a few yards. RPS -1.
M32	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	5.5	Pass	RPO slant	Eubanks	10
RPO, Michigan actually blocks the run really well but the read LB charges Patterson so that’s a pull; this appears to be a trap by Iowa as the S moves up on Eubanks and covers him so well this is interference (refs -1) as the dude arrives a step early; Eubanks is able to make the tough catch. Patterson probably doesn’t have the time to check a second read but again Collins is wide open on a hitch as Iowa is terrified of him. (CA, 2, RPO, RPS push but tempted to make it a minus.)
M42	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Hitch	Bell	Inc
Wilson on flare motion presnap, Iowa widens out. Route pattern works out as Collins stops on a hitch and Bell is open behind. Good protection, Patterson hits Bell, Bell drops it. On replay a DB rake helps this happen, so not a pure drop. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M42	2	10	Wildcat trips FB	2	1	2	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Power O	Charbonnet	1
M tells Iowa they’re going to run on second and ten and Iowa duly stones them. There is no double team, really, as Iowa pinches their DTs; Ruiz(-1) gets pushed back into Onwenu(-1), who just kind of stalls out; Bredeson(+1) plows a DE trying to squeeze this and opens up a little bit of room but not enough. RPS -1.
M43	3	9	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Dime two deep	5	Run	Speed option	Charbonnet	3
This looks pretty good for a couple of steps and then Geno Stone makes a mansome play, shooting in from off screen at maximum speed and hewing Charbonnet down. Charbonnet(-1) is in open space and ends up going down pretty meekly. Bell(+1) and Eubanks(+1) had walled off guys nicely; this is like a +3 from Stone.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M14	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Sack	N/A	-8
The play discussed at length in the game column. Patterson has a hitch, two crossing routes, and a post. Three of these routes are open enough to throw since Patterson gets forever in the pocket. Runyan gets shed by Epenesa eventually, sack. DPJ on a post against a CB with outside leverage and no safety help. Yeesh. (TAX, N/A, protection 2/2)
M6	2	18	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Flare screen	Turner	1
This isn’t going anywhere but it goes a little less anywhere because Collins(-2) airballs on a crack block on a LB not even looking at him. Playside DE reads this and gets out on it so this is driven to the sideline but maybe M can get 5 if this doesn’t happen. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
M7	3	17	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	TE screen	Eubanks	5
Onwenu never gets to the second level because the same guy from the previous play is reading screen the whole way and blocks him; also he chases this out to an unblocked zone CB. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1). Says something that these are Michigan’s two follow ups to the sack when protection has been good and Collins exists.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 4 min 2nd Q. Next drive is the one minute drill that starts turtle and then gets wacky.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M4	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6	Run	Insert iso	Wilson	3
Iowa blitzes with their OLB in the gray area. DE slides down against Mayfield so expected gap for the iso is not there. Mayfield(+0.5) does decently, pushing him, but at some level DL get to go the direction they want and this is not a play that can make up for that. Decent push as Onwenu(+0.5) finds a LB and locks him out; Ruiz(-1) lunges out at the NT, falls and NT is able to zip around for a tackle. Costs M a few yards.
M7	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Insert iso	Wilson	6
Epenesa pulls the Gary and flies out of the picture on a pass rush, so Wilson(+1) is able to break it outside away from the actual blocks; he then cuts up inside of a good Bell(+1) block to near the first down. Bredeson(-1) lost his block, giving ground and allowing his guy to two-gap him, so good thing Epenesa went rogue.
M13	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	7	Run	Arc zone give	Haskins	18
Playside slant with a LB blitzing behind and safety coming down to fill behind, arc action. Epenesa runs himself into no-mans land and both aspects will work, probably, as LB blitzing hesitates with the arc action. Runyan(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) both get good second level blocks; Bredeson(+0.5) washes a DT down the line; Haskins(+0.5) gets a nice chunk of YAC. RPS +1.
M31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6	Pass	Hitch	DPJ	7
Field side hitch just inside the numbers with 28 seconds left and one TO… WTF man. If this is the design, this should be an out, DPJ can only get OOB by doing some very unnatural giving of ground that makes this a three yard pass. I dunno, man. There are real deep routes here and the protection is good so I assume this was not the plan. (BR, 3, protection 11/1)
M38	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Hitch	DPJ	7
This one is probably on purpose since there are 7 seconds left on the snap. Thrown a little wide. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(58), EOH. I’m not grading this hail mary.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 over	5.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	4
5.5 in the box and meh. DT zips upfield past Onwenu(+0.5) who gives him a heavy shove to move him out. Bredeson(+1) gets a chip and a second level block. Ruiz(-0.5) can’t do a whole lot with that. Epenesa dives inside; LB held by RPO; Charbonnet(-2) does not read the lack of edge to his left and runs into a pile.
M34	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	15
DE dives inside, pull. Boundary LB also dives inside. Collins(+1) is on the CB to the edge and stays on him the whole play; Eubanks(+1) flares out and gets to the playside S. Patterson(+1) made the pull and retains his speed. RPS +1.
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Penalty	False start	Runyan	-5
Runyan -1.
M44	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Insert iso	Turner	3
Bredeson(+1) and Ruiz(+1) combo through a DT and get the backside LB. Runyan(-1) catches Epenesa and Epenesa fights inside. Eubanks runs to go hit the MLB, comes tight off Ruiz and meets the MLB at the LOS in not enough space; he sort of wins but that might be the back hitting him and pushing him forward. RPS -1, long path for Eubanks to get to this and no zone read.
M47	2	12	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	6	Pass	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Pocket mostly good; Onwenu(-1) loses his guy after an initial stop. Patterson pumps a route that he doesn’t like and then bails out; he throws it away after scrambling out. (TA, 0, protection ½)
M47	3	12	Shotgun 4-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Dumpoff	Charbonnet	5
This route structure has one guy going to the sticks and a bunch of crossing routes against team that plays close to 100% zone. Patterson quickly checks down to a nothing dumpoff to Charbonnet. You’re at the 47, this is an awful playcall, take a shot. (TA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 8 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M19	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 even	5.5	Pass	Bubble screen	DPJ	2
Baffling decision to run this with a press corner and an OLB head up on Eubanks, plus a safety at ten yards almost head up on DPJ. OLB takes path to force it inside of the numbers, safety tackles, RPS -1. (CA, 3, screen)
M21	2	8	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	Turner	2
Fake jet, up middle. M cannot get a gap as Mayfield(-1) gets shove back into lane. Onwenu(-1) misses a second level block after chipping; Ruiz gets a push.
M23	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	10
Protection is fine for a read or two and then Charbonnet hits Epenesa, who Runyan has contained ok, and Epenesa threatens; Bredeson goes and gets him. Patterson moves out, justifiably, and finds that he can run for it. (SCR, 0, protection 2/2)
M33	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	Sack	N/A	-9
Jet to DPJ, intended to be a throw. All(route -) falls over. Doesn’t really matter since this is covered by Stone, who doesn’t but this at all. DPJ should dump it but eats a sack instead. RPS -2.
M24	2	19	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-7
Pocket is fine, Patterson attempts to exit pocket and runs himself into a sack. (TAX, N/A, protection 2/2). Four verts and yikes Collins is open to the field. Patterson seems to favor the boundary a ton.
M17	3	26	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Screen	Charbonnet	7
Give up and punt, (CA, 3, screen). Charbonnet(+1) able to dodge a tackle to get this to 7 yards.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Hitch	Collins	10
This ball is a little wobbly and a little upfield but Iowa has been playing bail coverage most of the day and is here. Five yard out, Collins(+0.5) crunches out the first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M30	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Inside zone	Turner	2
Jet fake, sort of looks like Bell is maybe getting into a pitch relationship, but this is not a real mesh, handoff is too quick. Blocking is bleah, with Bredeson(-1) driven back and Ruiz(-1) similarly shoved back, must cut back. Mayfield is trying to release downfield but gets blocked off by a DE, Eubanks moves down to help; LB scrapes around this. Clunk, RPS -1.
M32	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6.5	Pass	Out	DPJ	10
Bail technique, corner turns hips inside in prep for a go route. Slot WR runs a route that sort of picks a LB; DPJ pops out and is wide open. Patterson’s throw is a little high and requires a jump and may limit YAC a little but that’s a nit. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Out	Black	20
Corner blitz, Wilson(gold star!) finds it from across the field and deletes it. Max pro so the rest of the protection is good. Patterson comes off Bell and hits Black as he breaks out on a S trying to make up for the CB blitz. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6.5	Run	Belly	Wilson	8
Gray area OLB blitz doesn’t get it done as he’s coming from some distance and M seems to anticipate the results. Epenesa slants down; Runyan(+1) fires him down the line. Bredeson(+1) free releases to the MLB and seals him inside. Eubanks(+05.) passes up Epenesa and finds the other LB; block isn’t dominating and Wilson(+0.5) has to break an arm tackle attempt. RPS +1.
O30	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Inside zone	Wilson	11
Double A gap from Iowa but they run it poorly. Epenesa is gone running at Patterson. Bredeson(+1) and Ruiz(+1) read the LBs coming and whack them; Mayfield(+1) thumps a DE; Wilson(+0.5) hits the gap, giving a wiggle to hold a DB outside.
O19	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Corner	Sainristil	Inc
Sainristil(route -) fails to sell the S on his post-corner at all. I think he actually trips on the feet of the S and goes down on a throw that might actually hit the tiny window provided, but tough to judge. Patterson probably has bell on a crossing route if he comes off this but doesn’t really have time as Onwenu(-2) allows quick pressure up the middle. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
O19	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over SAM	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Turner	3
Scrape exchange from Iowa; unfortunate. Onwenu(+2) gets a slanter and stops him dead, sealing him out. Solid gap up the middle; Eubanks(-0.5) is in a wing spot and cannot get a heavily slanting DE before he gets to the RB. This just isn’t happening because of the playcall. Bredeson(-0.5) and Ruiz(-0.5) get zero movement on the other DT, too, so this is the only spot. RPS -1.
O16	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Okie two	7.5	Pass	Corner	Bell	Inc
Patterson sees something and widens out Michigan from a tight formation. He sees cover zero, it looks like, and wants to go after it. Not a bad idea. LB tries to drop into the slot on Bell but that’s fairly futile. Bell(route -) has a two way go on a safety and barely steps inside in an attempt to sell a post; he is very covered. Max pro, no other options, Patterson chucks it high. Too high. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(33), 10-3, 11 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7.5	Run	Trap	Charbonnet	4
Bredeson gives a DT a shoulder and lets him go, where he’s picked off by All(+1) and jarred back. One LB goes behind DT, bought a blocker. Bredeson gets out on the other LB but can’t do much and loses him to gap; does delay. Ruiz and Onwenu move the other DT but Ruiz(-0.5) leaves for no one and then resumes the double; so the DT and OLB can converge because there wasn’t an effective double anywhere.
M44	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Arc zone give	Charbonnet	3
Double scrape from Iowa as OLB to boundary fires hard at mesh point, aiming to get past Eubanks and blow up keeper. Give, DE crashes down to erase interior gaps as MLB scrapes over to stick Charbonnet. RPS -1.
M47	3	3	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Waggle cross	Black	Inc
Iowa has this under control for the most part and definitely has the deeper routes done; Patterson should just check it down to the flat and hope Eubanks can squeeze it out; instead he throws at a very covered Black. This is either genius or luck as it’s way behind Black and barely escapes the outstretched hand of the S; Black has to turn back but this is catchable. It is not brought in. (CA, 2, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 7 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M15	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even SAM	7.5	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	4
Iowa exchange robs Mayfield of a blocking angle for the LB after Patterson pulls; DE is able to stop and redirect. Patterson’s(+0.5) able to get a few by picking through the blocks.
M19	2	6	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Arc zone give	Charbonnet	0
Epenesa charges down. All tries to block down on him, which is futile and just removes him as an option. Patterson(-1) gives despite Epenesa hammering down; Epenesa tackles. Runyan(-2) runs directly at scrape backer, misses as scrape backer goes outside. RPS -1.
M19	3	6	Shotgun 2TE tight	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	4
Scrape exchange; Eubanks(+1) gets around the DE and is able to pick off the OLB flying up; Patterson gets the edge; Black(-2) runs a fade kind of thing and barely touches a CB who runs inside him to tackle. Any reasonable block and this is a conversion.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-3, 2 min 4th Q. Last snap is a kneel.

why did you do this

when I don't people complain

people complain when you do!

habit?

habit.

Anyway, a doozy of a drive summary:

• 70 yard TD drive
• 64 yard drive ending in a missed 33 year FG
• weird end of half drive
• deep breath
• ~six three and outs, one of which is a FG after a turnover, one of which an INT on the second play of a drive
• four first-down-and-outs

Dios mio, man. If we set aside the end of half drive that is two successful things in twelve attempts.

Who do we blame?!

I mean, there's plenty to go around.

Why didn't we do the, you know, good thing more?

This one?

Yup.

I don't know. Michigan's protection was very good after an early hiccup, and they didn't even attempt a longer throw the rest of the game. Part of that was how Iowa was playing after this happened. Part of that was… well…

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-
Wisconsin	2	15(3)++	1		7	7		1*	2*	5	2*		63%	-
Rutgers	4	11(1)+	1		1	5		-	1*	3	-		79%	-
Iowa	-	15(4)+	2		2	1		-	4**	3	3*		56%	-

This didn't come out any different than expected. First an exoneration or two: Patterson was not at fault on the near-INT on his first throw. It's a waggle with Michigan running another flood concept. Flood has three levels. This play has two:

That's Collins sitting at the sticks looking at the action, and that's a guy who would be in man coverage against Collins 40 yards downfield nearly intercepting the ball. That should have been a first down and a nice catch and run.

A number of Patterson dropbacks that ended up in throwaways were legitimately unsalvageable; here Patterson gets relatively quick pressure as Iowa plays two-man (two high safeties with man coverage underneath) against what looks like four verts; there's nothing here for him:

Michigan WRs could have helped him out a bit, too. There were no route pluses handed out, and a couple of balls that could have been brought in. Bell's got raked out a bit; Black's was well behind him because it had to be, both are 2s in my grading system and you want 2s to be brought in.

These are the caveats. On the other hand…

That's second and ten, and yes he airmails a checkdown but he also has guys open: Eubanks is open for a dink in the middle of the field and Black is open on a hitch further upfield. Patterson appears to look that way even, but then checks down to a throw that's likely doomed even if completed.

Michigan's failure to convert after the fumble is another slow read.

Gattis yelled at Collins after this play but this ball is so late that if Collins is running at the sticks he's getting hit on the catch and maybe not making it. This is two drag routes against a zone—if you want to convert you'd better get the ball out as Iowa guys are dropping back. Once they get their depth and can drive on you this is the likely outcome. This is a theme. Rhythm throws across the middle are RPOs or they're almost never in rhythm.

Basic high-low read on another flood turns into an INT:

And the inexplicable lack of bomb at a post with no safety help:

Here's the coverage video if those screenshots weren't enough for you.

Those crossing routes are open too, since both Iowa LBs are moving left.

The rare 2/2 protection sack as Patterson does this to himself:

What can you say? Patterson's error rate is too high to sustain drives. He's not under a ton of pressure. He's still very accurate when he throws. He just makes bad decision after bad decision.

Okay but there was that one drive.

There was. It made me think about something: how many double moves have outside WRs run this year? I think it's zero. Because Michigan's chunk passing plays on The Other Drive were all outside WRs running hitches and outs, and being extremely open:

Iowa's been playing bail coverage most of the day at this point and Collins has been open on hitches virtually all day. The 2/2 protection sack above featured this moment on a route Patterson was not looking at:

It's fine that he's not looking at it on any particular play. It's fine that Collins is open on a hitch on an RPO not to him a few times. It's less fine that it took until the fourth quarter to target Collins a third time. Prior to the above clip the only hitch to an outside WR (aside from the end of the half) was a third down conversion to Sainristil, of all people.

Patterson followed that up with darts to DPJ and Black. Iowa's CB turned his hips for a go route on DPJ's:

While I have problems with Klatt's color in this game he's on point here when he notes that Patterson hitches up once and then throws confidently. How often does that happen? Rarely.

Black also ran an out when an Iowa CB blitz got picked up by Tru Wilson:

This was easy stuff because Iowa is terrified of Michigan's WRs going deep. Teams have played Michigan like this all year and rarely been subject to the kind of outside dinking that should be near-automatic when teams are playing ten yards off or bailing on the snap.

I found this frustrating because of how easy it was. It's something the opponent has to react to if they don't want to get bled down the field, and there's a reason teams are terrified of Michigan's WR corps going deep. I don't understand why Michigan's passing game hasn't been heavy on one on one outside WR matchups all year—the opponent will adjust and that's fine, because then you can hit them with double moves.

This also plays into Patterson's strengths—accuracy—while not asking him to anticipate windows coming open in a zone.

Will that work against top-end opponents?

No, they'll challenge Michigan's WRs and shut off any source of easy yards. Right now Michigan is trying to walk before they can run.

But the WRs didn't really help?

No. It wasn't their ability to catch the ball—as discussed above only two reasonably catchable balls weren't brought in and those weren't routine—but their consistency and ability to get open.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ			4/4	3/3		1		2/2	8/8
Collins	1		1/1	2/2		8	1/2	4/4	8/9
Black	1	0/1	0/1	1/1		5	1/3	1/3	11/12
Bell	2		0/1			7	2/4	3/7	12/12
Johnson						1	1/1	1/1
Sainristil	1			1/1		2			1/1
Jackson				1/1					1/1
McKeon						4	0/1	1/2	5/5
Eubanks			1/1	1/1		4	0/2	3/3	9/9
All
Schoonmaker				1/1					1/1
Charbonnet				1/1		2		0/1	6/6
Turner	1			1/1		1			3/3
Wilson
Haskins									1/1

Routes: Collins –, Bell –, Sainristil –.

As mentioned, Collins nearly caused an INT and makes me think I need to be more comprehensive with my WR grading because that was a doozy of a missed assignment. The other two route minuses were late corner routes that helped end The Other Drive.

Patterson actually shifted Michigan to this because he thought he'd get one on one with a safety, which he did, and then Bell runs a route that Geno Stone does not buy at all:

Grant Perry probably kicked the cat when he saw that. He's scoring on that every time, assuming the throw is not to Tacopants. Two downs earlier Sainristil had similarly failed to sell the safety on a corner route.

The WRs have their part in the blame for a 10-point game but it's a molehill compared to the previous mountain.

Also the ground game was bad!

why did i do this

People yell at you if you don't!

I've been thinking about this for a few weeks now, ever since Wisconsin sent Michigan's LB corps in the wrong direction all the time. How do you get nice plays? You get someone going the wrong direction. Michigan opened up with a speed option that didn't really need to option anyone because a DE went backwards off the LOS for some reason, and then on play #2 Iowa's MLB just went the wrong way:

Iowa MLB #34

There's a small tweak that may cause this as Michigan is running an iso play to the back of the formation—watch the backside DE fly upfield and Eubanks come tight off the guard.

When you're not doing this you can get everyone blocked up and still thud out just four yards. Michigan fakes a jet here, which doesn't do anything to the seven guys in the box; it does take All out of the picture, so now Michigan is –1. Bredeson gets a pancake, and everyone gets blocks:

Mayfield is beat upfield which is fine since this is going a few gaps away; Eubanks did enough with Epenesa, and the three relevant guys in the gap are all doing great. Four yards, because unblocked LB.

Michigan was pretty good at getting guys going the wrong way under previous editions of Harbaugh and is now pretty bad at it. The main source of wrong direction was the arc read—yes—which featured more heavily than you'd think because Michigan had one pull on it before their attempted four-minute drill.

By the fourth quarter when a couple of Michigan gambits had petered out the results were too often like this:

Everyone gets their block, unblocked LB at POA, two yards.

You can see this in the stats from this game in Bill Connelly's advanced box score. Against a tough defensive front, Michigan's 2.69 line yards beat the national average of 2.45. Their stuff rate of 13% was a lot better than the 20% national average. Their opportunity rate—which has been redefined to the percentage of carries getting four yards—was a whopping 58%, 12 points higher than the national average. But Michigan cannot escape the fact that most of the time their run game is playing down a man in the box. Highlight yards per opportunity*: 2.9. National average: 5.1.

[Also redefined to yards minus line yards, FWIW. I'm not sure what the implications of that change are, previously it was just yards after you get the first five.]

Ugh.

I am a broken record here but if there's a light at the end of the tunnel its the return of a QB run game that has to be accounted for. Michigan's best runs of the game all benefited from the threat of a keep, a threat that Michigan is no longer bothering to make on a lot of plays.

Michigan broke out an arc tweak that took the jet fake and made it an arc block; Patterson didn't keep but drew attention and Michigan easily punched it in from the seven on consecutive plays.

Iowa MLB #34

Iowa MLB #34

Haskins's chunk conversion at the end of the first half saw Iowa spend Epenesa and a linebacker on the arc:

Iowa LB #32 to bottom, Iowa DE #94

And a bonafide arc:

Michigan brought the arc back out for their attempted four-minute drill and probably would have succeeded on it if Black had blocked the CB instead of, uh, not doing that:

WR #7 to bottom

It's still functional. It still needs some play action tagged to it—we saw a couple of TE fade things in the Wisconsin game, but that's it. Michigan doesn't want to do it because one of their quarterbacks is broken and the other one is kind of broken.

How Michigan is it to enter a season with the best QB room in the Big Ten and then dearly wish Brandon Peters hadn't transferred?

The most Michigan.

So.. the OL doesn't have anything to do with this?

I wouldn't say that. Michigan's tackles both had a struggle and for the second straight week Cesar Ruiz came in slightly negative:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Runyan	2	4	-2	Epenesa tough, avoided a lot.
Bredeson	9	2.5	6.5	Bounce back, got after it.
Ruiz	3	5	-2	Disappointing year so far.
Onwenu	8.5	2	6.5	5 of his positives on two plays.
Mayfield	2.5	2	0.5	Also got Iowa's beefy DEs.
McKeon				DNP
Eubanks	4	3	1	Had the one TFL suffered.
All	3		3	Crunched a MLB!
Hayes				DNC
Schoonmaker				DNC
TOTAL	32	15.5	67%	Guards carried it.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson	1.5	1	1	so he can
McCaffrey				DNP
Charbonnet	2.5	3	-0.5	meh, no plays made really.
Turner		4	-4	Fumble.
Wilson	1.5		1.5	also a nice CB blitz pickup
Mason
Haskins	0.5		0.5	some YAC
TOTAL	5	8	-3	Make plays!
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ	0.5		0.5
Collins	1	2	-1	another airball
Black		2	-2	airball on final M play
Bell	2		2
Johnson
Sainristil
Jackson
TOTAL	3.5	4	-0.5	outside WRs a little demoralized?
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	31	8	79%	Onwenu –4, Ruiz –3, Runyan –1.
RPS	11	16	-5	Late slide as a lot of decently blocked plays ate LB anyway.

The overall number is just okay, and the overall numbers are low as a lot got shifted to RPS.

There were a couple of incidents where you'd hope Michigan could pave some guys but did not. I'm not sure that the wildcat snap was one of them, as Iowa appears to RPS the play by pinching their DTs. Ruiz gets pushed back into Onwenu's path, and he gets cut off and stops his feet:

I minused both guys but I also think the pinch has an impact on that play; pinching your DTs is obviously pretty awful as a pass D strategy so Michigan telling Iowa they were running (by bringing Mason in) and telling them again (by going into the covered slot formation) and then telling them a third time (by motioning Patterson out) on what would otherwise be a passing down probably has a lot to do with the downfall of the play.

There were a number of other plays where Michigan's interior OL paved their dudes and nothing really happened. Watch Onwenu and Ruiz thunk the playside DT five yards downfield:

C #51, RG #50

That doesn't come off because an exchange sees one of Iowa's jumbo DEs shoot down at Eubanks; Eubanks actually does an okay job to stalemate the guy but it's just too close to the tackle box for Charbonnet to take advantage of the DT getting crunched.

Bredeson and Ruiz combo through a DT here, he's gone and a second level block… and little.

C #51, LG #74

The iso block here from Eubanks takes so long to get to the POA that a linebacker can come up and meet him at the LOS. Again, this isn't a bad block from Eubanks; he stands the LB up and may even drive him a bit—tough to tell if that's Eubanks or the RB hitting him from behind. It is Iowa's reaction time beating the play design, and Epenesa fighting through a kickout.

When Michigan was able to get Iowa to spend someone without getting blocked things went pretty well. The back to back Wilson chunk runs saw Iowa blitz an OLB from the gray area but way too wide to matter; the next play saw a double A gap blitz picked up as Epenesa shot at the QB:

Frustrations on the ground are a little bit due to the interior OL—Ruiz mostly—not coming in as excellent as projected. I think it's mostly other stuff.

I saw the RB grades were pretty bleah.

Yeah. This game did feature a couple of runs on which Michgian could have used more from Charbonnet. The first was the speed option that looked like a sure third and long conversion until Geno Stone did this:

That's a great play from Stone, mostly, but it is disappointing that Charbonnet goes down so meekly here. Probably wasn't expecting Stone anywhere near as quickly as he showed up.

The second was an RPO on which a LB got held deep and Epenesa didn't hold the corner. Charbonnet grinds out four yards against a five-man box here; a pop outside the tackle is a chunk play.

DL usually get to say where they go, but not always how fast and how close to the LOS they are. That's a missed opportunity. Michigan didn't get bonus yards from their RB in this aside from a few from Wilson and Haskins.

Another RPS loss? Are we getting testy?

A bit! I'm even RPS plusing basic hitches against off coverage right now and still… uh. Michigan's two frippery items were a one yard gain on the wildcat snap and a nine yard loss on a play where All fell down and Geno Stone had it covered anyway.

Michigan's lone RPO pull was a trap by Iowa, which blitzed the LB Patterson was reading and replaced him with a safety. The safety actually arrives early:

No RPS win there when the opposition is committing PI on the catch.

Meanwhile there were some baffling route patterns, none more so than this third and eleven from the 47. One guy goes downfield:

You might have an argument for this if Iowa was a heavy man to man team. But they're Iowa.  Compounding the weirdness is the spot on the field: five yards doesn't even get you field position since you're just booting it into the endzone from there.

I charged this to Patterson, too: yesterday's UV noted that 41% of NFL interceptions are no worse than incompletions. Firing it at DPJ in this situation gives you a greater than zero chance of a first down and should be the move. But I mean what is that?

Finally, this is a baffling route to throw with 28 seconds on the clock.

Maybe this was not the design, as there are a couple of routes heading deeper and if you're just grabbing a few yards you'd probably run an out. Maybe it's another bad Patterson decision.

The tight ends can't block!

This one's going around the internet, probably because of this play where Eubanks ends up getting run over:

TE #82 and OT #73 to bottom

Pretty bad; Eubanks was able to scrape over zero despite it. He's not great; he's not bad. This is a lot of progress from last year.

Meanwhile All's had a couple issues here and there but we're willing to write some of those off if he's going to crunch Iowa MLBs like this as a true freshman:

TE #83 innermost guy in bunch

Second straight week I've clipped an All block that went better than it seems it should.

Heroes?

Bredeson was good on the ground and didn't have Onwenu's pass pro issues. Uh… Peoples-Jones?

Maybe not so heroic?

Patterson crash landed with a sub-60 DSR. Ruiz gave up some pressure and had a poor day on the ground. The backs didn't contribute much more than a fumble, Wilson excepted. The playcalling again came in significantly negative despite some… uh… aggressive RPS +1s.

What does it mean for Illinois and beyond?

Little progress and running out of time. This was no better than the Wisconsin game, and worse for Patterson.

If you're not swapping QBs, it needs to be simple. Michigan has some dudes at wideout who should be given opportunities when pressed and hit on short simple stuff when played off of. The only time this offense looked good was when Patterson was given dead simple hitch/out reads or got a guy one on one deep—and that only sometimes a guy was one on one deep.

Ruiz is having some issues. I don't know if it's indecisiveness or something else but he's not coming through as the ass-kicker we were hoping he'd be.

WR blocking is pretty bad. More often than not they've hampered longer runs.

Maybe look at Collins more. The year is 2079. A strange man is defrosted from the local cryogenics facility, screaming "NICO COLLINS IS OPEN THROW IT TO HIM." He is re-frozen so he can repeat the process 20 years from now.