Unverified Voracity Transforms into a Transaction
Transitioning to transforming transactions. Michigan's annual Grand Traverse weekend was an opportunity to test Harbaugh's new "We're transformational not transactional" motivational poster catch phrase for its approach to NIL. This atop their sluggish start to 2023 recruiting while those they mostly recruit against—namely Notre Dame, Penn State, and Michigan State—are cleaning up has created a sense there's a state of emergency in the recruiting department.
Regarding the current class rankings, yeah man, Rutgers was Top 10 at this point last year. More concerning is (probably) missing out on two in-state 5-star quarterbacks, one a guy who's been working out with Devin Gardner for years, the other Lloyd Carr's grandson. That's probably not all about NIL, but it is true that Michigan's response to the new NIL realities has been, depending on whom you ask, somewhere between tepid and insanely naïve.
The NCAA quickly abandoned the hill of "boosters can't play" and the rest of its guidance has been thoroughly ignored; even I can't believe even Michigan takes that organization seriously. What they do have to take seriously is state law, which goes into effect December 31 this year. Michigan's stated policy complies with that law, and by all accounts their actual policy matches the stated one.
To over-simplify, as I understand it the main the difference between Michigan and their competitors right now is we're paying attention to the "no facilitation" piece, and nobody else on our level is actually doing the same (even if they swear up and down otherwise). The site Opendorse has a map of the current state of legislation as well as a rundown:
The repeals, suspensions and amendments across the SEC all came after the NCAA gave up the ghost, since the whole point was to operate without rules. All laws are not the same; Nebraska's is optional (Nebraska opted out), Arizona's is like "whatever the NCAA says" and Georgia's will sunset before it goes into effect. Illinois freed its schools to be more involved. Ditto Mississippi, Louisiana and Tennessee. Ohio State wrote Ohio's law to mean whatever's best for Ohio State. Texas, due to a controversial state law preventing quick amendments, is the most like Michigan in the structure of their law and unlikelihood that it changes any time soon.
The relevant sticking point is "Schools, Conferences, and Associations cannot compensate a student-athlete for their NIL." That was a bone meant to make things more palatable to the NCAA. Michigan the school has interpreted that as complying with the NCAA's hand-wave policy that schools cannot "facilitate" these deals. Michigan State is ignoring it for now, but will have to comply by next year.
Michigan donors informed me they've been told by the program or Harbaugh himself that Michigan is not going to take their money and pass it along. At Michigan's recent camp I chatted up a few coaches who've chaperoned national recruits through the process. Most are ideologically close to Harbaugh, but even they said most schools (including mid-majors) will get the adult in a room and talk dollar amounts, but you know not to even bring that up at Michigan. Meanwhile Ryan Day himself is imploring Ohio State fans to raise $13 million to keep their roster intact, and most schools have official collectives directing fan efforts.
So what is Michigan doing? Still figuring it out. On the player side, Valiant Management, organized by Johnny Wangler and friends, is representing a good number of players, though many are still striking their own deals. Valiant are the ones who put together those NFTs and the tailgate after the spring game. On the collective side, there are three that seem to have any footing. MGoDAO is a consortium of fans—many of them our readers—creating an NIL collective to pool the fans' money to spend on the players. They'll be at the MGoPatio this fall. Champions Circle, announced a few weeks ago via Angelique, was recently formed by a group of older boosters. Stadium and Main is another collective that formed, though I don't yet have a good handle on what they're focusing on.
Some of this will work itself out—for example Saban will do whatever A&M is doing then call that the "right way"—but there's certainly a danger we're going to end up with a more expensive version of the old situation, plus a few years of Michigan's fumbling in the dark for a new line it won't cross (which it will then cross).
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Underrating Cade Season 7, Episode 102. Over at Ace's The Bucket Problem ($, but I assume you have subs by now), they're ranking Big Ten situations at each position, as if having his own site and staffing it out to Dan could escape arguing Draftageddon with me. In other words, everyone puts out previews like this over the summer, but only a few who watch enough of the games to know what they're talking about, and Ace and his people are on that very short list. QBs Part I and Part II, and RBs Part I are live.
The one I want to argue—and TBP is hardly the only site doing this—was putting Maryland (IE Taulia Tagovailoa) 3rd, versus Michigan 6th, with MSU and Nebraska between them. It is the explanation of Cade "not being great at anything" that I take issue with specifically, because McNamara's the best I've ever charted at pre-snap reads.
As for TaTa, he's the case study for "that shit works against MSU, but not real secondaries." He's a PFF darling, but seldom have we encountered a QB with good defense/bad defense splits more extreme, nor more explicable by the guy's style of play.
Against Top 25 defenses he threw two INTs for every touchdown and averaged 5.8 YPP, including sacks, of which he causes so many he averaged 1.2 yards per carry despite regular 20+ yard breaks.
You can't separate Tagovailoa from his "read one guy then run around and chuck it" offense any more than you can Cade for checking down to Haskins/Corum/Edwards instead of forcing it downfield. Both have great receivers returning (or returning from injury). If I'm wrong and Maryland has better quarterbacking in 2022 than Michigan I'll buy the first person who says so a year's subscription to The Bucket Problem. If I'm right, you're buying mine.
What's up with Hail to the Victors 2022? We're writing it, but we're late. I'm still figuring out how this affects the supply chain, but the features are all in, the shirt's designed, the opponent previews all written except Ohio State did not mention 42-27 enough, and we're working to get the Kickstarter up.
But may I direct you to… In the meantime, Bill Connelly's been putting out his conference-by-conference offseason previews on ESPN+, starting with the mid-majors, meaning all of Michigan's non-conference opponents have been covered. CSU is predicted to finish 4th in the MWC's Mountain division with a 71% chance of making a bowl; Hawai'i is predicted to finish last in the West. UConn leads a trio of independents ranked 127th, 128th, and 131st out of 131 teams.
On Colorado State($):
Colorado State's 28-man 2022 recruiting class was one of the most unusual -- and most indicative of the times -- that you'll ever see. It featured 12 freshmen ... and 11 Nevada transfers.
On Hawaii($):
One of the lasting lessons from my returning production measure through the years: If you return less than 50% of your previous season's production, your odds of regression are extremely high. Hawai'i returns 33% and Nevada 27%. These are the worst two marks in FBS at the moment.
On Connecticut($):
…has an experienced defense and a secondary that showed moments of solid disruption. Sophomore safeties Durante Jones and Malik Dixon are playmakers (play-preventers, not so much), and senior corner Tre Wortham is a keeper. Meanwhile, end Kevon Jones is solid in both run defense and pass rushing. It wouldn't be a shock if the defense exceeds expectations.
Please stop. Add Warde Manuel to the list of old guys test ballooning lines of argument for rehabilitating Bo's legacy as an example for virtuous leadership. Alexandro Zúñiga of The Michigan Insider caught a podcast hosted by former Tennessee AD Mike Hamilton that had Warde on as a guest, and transcribed the answer.
These are Michigan AD Warde Manuel's comments on Bo Schembechler on the podcast "From the Chair." pic.twitter.com/qOAXL109PO
— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) June 1, 2022
Speaking just for myself, as much as I want to argue Bo didn't know, couldn't have done something, or did all he could, there's no way to make that argument fit the facts. The world isn't made of shining heroes and conniving villains. It does have right and wrong, however, and minimizing the damage done to hundreds of survivors of sexual abuse—survivors who are our guys too—to soften the blow to the legacy of an iconic dead man is categorically wrong. "We are all fallible. We all make mistakes in life. Nobody's perfect" is the wrong message from a person in a position of authority.
Rankings matter if they matter. The latest QS university rankings have Michigan 25th overall, 12th in North America (ahead of two Ivies), and behind only Stanford (2nd overall) among schools with FBS teams.
The rest of the Big Ten (rank overall):
- (25) Michigan
- (32) Northwestern
- (83-tie) Wisconsin
- (85) Illinois
- (93) Penn State
- (128-tie) Purdue
- (140) Ohio State
- (159) Michigan State
- (164-tie) Maryland
- (185-tie) Minnesota
- (267) Rutgers
- (339) Indiana
- (467-tie) Iowa
- (651-700) Nebraska
Breaking down by components, the University of Michigan scored highly on academic reputation, reputation with employers, and employment outcomes, but low on all of the international factors, with "International Research Network" the only one of those that seems applicable to a U.S. state's public research school.
Every Michigan Game Ever.
I lost my commemorative poster.
Brian Snider and Kenny Magee are two of the biggest Michigan collectors on the planet, and have finally completed their career's work, a 680-page almanac of every Michigan football game. It includes every ticket and program cover known to exist, as well as a synopsis of that game. Use the code HAIL at umichfootball.com if you want $10 off.
Please change name to Statsbabomb. Welcome to CFB, nerds of soccer. Please make some of this data free.
Etc. Jack Johnson got his degree, then a cup. Texas will win the Director's Cup. Ace on WBB($). The "University of Indiana" has to answer for this. Martelli now in Philly HoF. Guy on MGoBoard makes Split Zone Duo. Ian Boyd's new Substack kicks off with a look at how Jerry Hanlon's Michigan offense used #SpeedinSpace in 1969($).
so....wary but not panicked about recruiting?
Not even a glint amateurism remaining. While I support the kids getting their piece, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around it in the context of being a college sports fan. Schools now have completely amateur athletes like swimmers and softball players, and players who are making as much as NFL players. Weird stuff for the fan brain.
As long as they're going to classes, it doesn't bother me
If the whole world doesn't play by the NIL rules (assuming there even are some that can be enforced), I have this awful feeling that the second Michigan steps over that line we get the book thrown at us with some vindictive journalist at the lead.
This is admittedly a dumb take on the situation, but I've been a Michigan fan long enough to know that our punishments practically never fit the crime.
That sounds exactly like Michigan's line of thinking regarding NIL.
Maybe Michigan should step over and get this voodoo over with.
Exactly. It is like the smart kid sitting in the front will get nailed when he is out of line once in a blue moon.
That doesn't sound irrational at all, alas. You know what we call LSU or Baylor doing something that flagrantly violates NCAA rules? Tuesday. But Michigan stretching for two extra hours is a four week saga that gets exhaustively covered by the Freep and every major sports outlet.
duplicate post, me cannot mgoblog
Perhaps some of the resistance Michigan is showing is that the coaches feel, (or know) that unfettered NIL can be a poison in the locker room. Some freshman QB making $1 million who hasn't played a down rubbing a four-year lineman who is getting zilch can make for a nasty team dynamic.
It'll be interesting to see how Texas A&M fares when mixing their highly paid recruits with the rest of the team. My hunch is they will be less successful than their recruiting ranking would indicate. That might be the test case Michigan is looking at.
I mean, doesn't this happen in the pros all the time?
If only we had someone on staff who might be able to give more insight to how it happens in the pros and if it’s all the time. Maybe from their very direct experience with those team cultures as both a player and a coach.
Winning will cure everything.
Nope.
Listen to Extra Points podcast, Going For Two when our new center, Olu Oluwatimi, was the guest. This question was asked and answered.
Thanks Seth for the added detail on NIL. I'm ambivalent on the "no facilitation" issue. On the one hand, it seems like a slippery slope into a morass of booster interference in a program's ability to relate directly with its athletes. And for an athletic department scarred by the Ed Martin experience, the caution seems understandable. On the other hand, "facilitate" is an awfully vague term and it seems reasonable to me that an educational institution could at least make available information/training on how to market one's NIL without needing to become a party to a transaction. Furthermore, NIL is a fully private sector activity, right? Why can't these deep-pocketed supporters that UM purportedly has a surfeit of reach out proactively to prospects to "facilitate"? This all strikes me as a problem that the boosters -- not the university -- need to get organized on to solve.
There is no prohibition in the Michigan NIL law against a university facilitating NIL payments. All it says is that they're not required to. It also says that they cannot "provide" to a "prospective student-athlete" (i.e. one still being recruited) payment for NIL.
UM has said that the law doesn't allow them to "facilitate" but that's not what the NIL statute says.
(There may be Title 9 or other reasons but the MI NIL law isn't one of them).
http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2019-2020/publicact/pdf/2020-PA-0366.pdf
The Ed Martin fiasco was like 30 years ago and we’re still jilted by it. In that time, OSU has had several violations, but they truck on.
Why do we act so weak?
Furthermore, NIL is a fully private sector activity, right? Why can't these deep-pocketed supporters that UM purportedly has a surfeit of reach out proactively to prospects to "facilitate"?
They absolutely can go directly to the prospects. That's really how the entire thing is intended: for players to be able to profit off their own name, image and likeness from sponsors away from school.
The reason for desiring to give the school money, I assume, is that donors don't necessarily know how much to give to whom and want those with better information to allocate the money (again, I assume).
But for certain players, like Dante Moore, that's not necessary. Everyone knows Michigan wants the guy. Nothing preventing anyone from offering him a deal.
So yes, you're absolutely right that it's donors that can get organized. I've mentioned it before but I'm shocked no one has put together a kickstarter here to raise funds. We raised like $80k for Ace in a couple days. We could absolutely raise $1M for Dante Moore right here.
Maybe I'm old and old school, but so be it...
I have no problem with players getting some compensation for an autograph session, other appearance, having their name on a jersey, etc.
Yet, some of this other stuff is absurd. If I want to watch professional football, there is ample opportunity to do so on Sundays. I hope Michigan doesn't go down that road even if it means they're at a competitive disadvantage to their rivals and "peers".
Perhaps many disagree, especially those who are not alumni of the University. I have little interest in the NFL, even though the caliber of football exceeds what is played at the college level. I have no tie in whatsoever. Yet, I spent 4 years in school in Ann Arbor and, while my athletic ability is pitiful at best, that experience gives me at least something in common with the players of any Michigan sport. A shared experience. They represent the University of Michigan and I try to do so, as well, in my professional life (re: Bo's doing things the right way).
Big bucks and playing school ... a recipe for losing interest.
College Football has been professional football for the last 2 decades. There are Michigan players who don't give a shit about degrees (I know bc I was friends with a few when I was an undergrad) and they just want to get to the NFL ASAP.
I don't disagree but the problem with this is that you will still be watching "professional" football even if UM doesn't participate. UM will just be at a significant disadvantage in many of those games. The cat is out of the bag and isn't going back in. Its the same with the overall CFB landscape. Most people wish games were shorter with less commercial breaks. Its ridiculous that games take almost 4 hours with players just standing around most of the time, yet, its never going back to "the old way". There is too much money involved.
Yeah well Bo didn't do things the right way so it'd help to wake up to that fact as a first step. And please don't pretend you speak for alumni.
> If I want to watch professional football, there is ample opportunity to do so on Sundays
I guess for me, I never enjoyed Michigan football specifically because the players didn't get paid. I love Michigan football because I went to school there and so do the players. They could give McNamara the same salary Aaron Rodgers gets -- as long as he's taking classes on the diag and playing games at the Big House, I'm going to be a huge fan and root my butt off at the games.
I wholeheartedly agree with this. College athletes have always had a unique student experience, and my entire life the way that football and basketball players had been prevented from earning cash of their on-field exploits hasn't really made much sense - it may have made some sense before TV revenues and million dollar coaches, but it definitely hasn't made sense since that paradigm changed. But college sports still offer a unique fan experience - your team isn't going to leave, it's tied to a not-for-profit school instead of a corporate entity or a rich family, students have an impact on the gameday experience, there's student led bands, cheer squads and - as long as the players go to class - student led teams on the field.
If the players stop going to class I may have this crisis of confidence other are having about NIL. Even then, what am I going to do, watch pro sports instead? Maybe, but...why? The way it's attached to the university is what makes it special. The way the players are attached to the university, the way I saw Chad Henne at Angelo's, Carlos Brown in the computer lab - that's what makes it special. Not the fact that they couldn't get paid.
Wow. A Patrick O'Brian reference (in the "University of Indiana" reference)! I'm just now halfway through his Aubrey/Maturin books a second time.
Good pick-up! I didn't see any reason to click on the link and missed it entirely. It was a very interesting story.
Sorry Keweenaw Penninsula - you have not been selected for inclusion in the U.S. nor any NIL deals.
Spent most of last week there with a couple of my sibs-didn't need a passport to get there. Caught a 26" walleye off the dock at Copper Harbor.
Warde's approach to that interview is disappointing. Someone in his position should know how to handle a question like that.
Georgia's [NIL law] will sunset before it goes into effect
This isn’t a typo? JFC
Right when we broke into the elite club by making the playoffs, then NIL comes along and ruins everything. It will just become a money game now and the University that can use NIL to pay for the top talent will become the elite teams. I can understand why Michigan does not want to play this game but we may have to get use to more 4 loss seasons and losing to our rivals.
We will see. I am holding out hope that NIL will survive but the free agency shit will be toned down, leveling the playing field. I am very naive :(
Good read, no I don't have a sub to Ace and his venture. Good luck to him, but I'll pass.
I dunno if you coined TaTa, but that is how i'm going to refer to him in my internal monologue moving forward. Thanks for that.
Sexy bits are back!!
I dunno if you coined TaTa, but that is how i'm going to refer to him in my internal monologue moving forward. Thanks for that.
I guess it’s gotten to the point where I just don’t care about college football anymore. I was almost there then I was reminded last year of what I love about the game.
Since then everything has reminded me of why I felt that the game was ruined and it’s just gotten worse. I’ll cheer. I’ll be excited for wins. But I don’t care about losses. I don’t care about recruiting. I don’t care about “conference championships” or “beating our rivals.”
There just isn’t a point if everyone is on a different playing field. I hope my mind changes and maybe it will but I have a hard time seeing it.
I'm with you. Getting hard to care as much about all of this stuff anymore. I know college football at the highest level has never been as pure as a lot of us would have liked but now it's going to another level. Asking fans to contribute to some fund to pay players is a bridge too far for me
somewhere between tepid and insanely naïve
This is a great range to describe the NIL situation at Michigan.
For "Leaders and Best", we sure as shit seem to be pretty awful at getting ahead of the rest when it comes to shit like this. Our main rival, the team we supposedly should be doing everything we possibly can to beat is asking for $13 million dollars so they can continue owning the conference (42-27 notwithstanding) and our answer is "ew, NIL is gross so we will handicap ourselves even if it means never beating anyone with a pulse."
Somedays all I can do shake my head at how a program with every resource like ours intentionally neuters itself in the name of integrity when literally no one, including the governing board of all college sports, doesn't give a shit.
Our future looks like years of 8-4 while fans say "at least we don't directly pay our players" as if that's something to brag about.
Perhaps it is not merely "in the name of integrity", but actually integrity itself.
Integrity is what you do when no one is watching; it's doing the right thing all the time, even when it may work to your disadvantage. Integrity is keeping your word. It's an internal compass, a rudder that directs you where you know you should go when everything around you is pulling you in a different direction.
Integrity is paying players, who make a lot of money for the institution, a portion of that compensation.
They do. Scholarships, no? May not be "enough," I suppose. But it is "a portion." Nobody's enslaved.
I don't want the school to pay players. Who gets more? Does an offensive lineman get more than a back-up kicker? What if the back-up kicker gets the game-winner against OSU? What about a tennis player, or a sprinter? How about a highly recruited incoming freshman against a guy who had a break-out sophomore season?
I don't want the school to pay players any more than it pays musicians or engineers or English majors. All those students -- including the back-up kicker with a game-winner against OSU -- should have the right to profit off their name, image, and likeness, as everyone else in America does. But to have the university pay them to play? Nah. Go to the pros.
If Michigan "suffers," from it, so be it. But it seems to me like almost everyone here believes there's something special about this school and this program. Why are we so quick to toss that aside? Instead, let's promote that: Come to Michigan for the opportunities (yes, including in professional sports) you'll get after graduating, and for the experience (and training and exposure) you'll get being here. You want the cash over the experience, go to Kentucky for basketball or Texas A&M for football.
That was the message in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015. I don't have any problem with it still being the message now.
Eyeroll.
So, schools that are making billions off tv revenue, games, etc. and said schools should just keep all the cash flow coming in for themselves and not pay the players that are putting their bodies in the line for? Not to mention paying lucrative deals for coaches now? Everyone gets paid except of the actual people playing the sport. Lol.
You’re comparing the die hard fandom in this blog vs an 18 year old who isn’t a diehard UM fan, and getting offered to play for millions of dollars elsewhere. You, like UMs thinking is phased out. If you want to see UM back on the top, then they’ll need to follow the crowd and start paying players (as they should do). Now, if you’re okay without being competitive and want to die on that mountain, that’s your prerogative.
"Who gets more? Does an offensive lineman get more than a back-up kicker? What if the back-up kicker gets the game-winner against OSU? What about a tennis player, or a sprinter? How about a highly recruited incoming freshman against a guy who had a break-out sophomore season?"
Whatever the market will allow. With the portal, if you don't like it you can attempt to find "greener" pastures elsewhere. Same would be true of just about any job/career in this country.
"Instead, let's promote that: Come to Michigan for the opportunities (yes, including in professional sports) you'll get after graduating, and for the experience (and training and exposure) you'll get being here."
We have this model today in college athletics. We call it Division III. Less broadly, it is essentially the Ivy League or Pioneer League in the world of Division I.
The school doesn't pay the players in NIL. Outside organizations do. And those organizations decide how much they are willing to pay any given player. There is no school paying players directly, as it would be a blatant title 9 violation if they weren't playing all athletes equally.
I don't know if Ryan Day will get the local businesses to come up with $13 million bucks to help out with NIL. He is asking for this amount so that OSU can compete with the SEC. MI can do the same. All it takes is for Harbaugh to ask. I read that Ohio State leads the nation with athletes from several sports making a combined $3 million in NIL.
Harbaugh to ask whom? The state legislators? Ohio State's situation is different; they wrote the legislation that governs NIL in their state. Michigan's legislation technically doesn't go into effect until December 31st, but they're operating as if it does, and their interpretation of that is he can't have anything to do with NIL, let alone ask donors to raise funs for it.
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