11/18/2023 – Michigan 31, Maryland 24 – 11-0, 8-0 Big Ten

Michigan got up 23-3; they'd paved Maryland on a couple touchdown drives, forced a fumble out of Taulia Tagovailoa for a touchdown, and blocked a punt. Hooray, another one of these games, can we please fast forward to next weekend. I no longer want football to be happening, because Roman Wilson has already exited this game and there is no reason to continue this exhibition before the main event.

Then the other football game happened. You know, the one before Ohio State where everyone wants to fast forward to The Game but the opponent will not cooperate and Michigan gets stuck in a slog. This one wasn't as bad as last year's Fiesta Del Field Goals against Illinois, but happy sim-to-end thoughts got replaced by grimmer ones as Michigan kept losing players and Maryland kept hanging around. There was a terrifying targeting review on Mason Graham that would have knocked him out of the first half of The Game; Myles Hinton ended up screaming very loud on camera after he got his knee rolled up on; Sherrone Moore tried one deep shot that McCarthy missed and otherwise went right to the book of Lloyd Carr Blown Leads.

Michigan did not blow the lead, instead deciding to repeatedly sack Taulia Tagovailoa until Tagovailoa freaked out and threw it to no one while standing in the endzone, and the trap game ended without much more than mild annoyance from the Michigan fans that made up a large majority of the crowd.

Now: death, fire, and doom.

----------------------------------------------------

The most important Game of all time is always this one, but this is the most important Game of all time.

Michigan has been beset by wildly exaggerated claims of malfeasance based on Connor Stalions going great lengths to get things that you can get just by asking Rutgers. Jim Harbaugh has been suspended via a ludicrous legal theory that he can be punished for acts he did not commit or know about because he "embodies the university." Ohio State fans are weeping on Twitter that Ryan Day should be forgiven because Michigan's dastardly acts invalidate consecutive three-touchdown beatdowns. They are crossing out all the Ms in their tweets except one.

You are probably aware that this has been the most irritating, enraging, and insane month in the history of my—and likely your—tenure as a Michigan fan. The non-stop chirping from people who couldn't figure out how to change a lightbulb even if Stalions gave them detailed instructions has changed a joyous, national-championship-contending season into a descent into paranoia.

That fact that all of this is bullshit will never register with the people who do not already realize all of this is bullshit. Pretty much every single former player who isn't a rival has dismissed this as penny-ante crap, but you still have the media howlers howling about banning Michigan—Blake Corum and JJ McCarthy and Mike Sainristil and Mike Barrett—from the playoff.

There is only one way to shut it all up: win. Ryan Day's successfully disrupted the Michigan football program but now he's out of excuses. Michigan has your signs? That's on you at this point. You can't beat Sherrone Moore? Not a great look, Coach Just For Men. Lose, and the ridiculous narrative that sign-stealing was the main reason Michigan won by three touchdowns in consecutive years will never die.

Only one team's getting out of this alive. That is barely a metaphor.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[David Wilcomes]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Sainristil. Two interceptions will do it, yeah. The first was particularly critical, coming just as Maryland was getting momentum and threatening to drive for the lead. Tagovailoa got him a couple times but Sainristil nearly had a third INT, but for Tagovailoa throwing his late ball late enough that Sainristil could only bring it in out of bounds.

#2(T) Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham. Graham was the main motive force on various pressures. His explosion is the driver on stunts; he clears people out so badly that loopers have a truck lane to jet through. Grant, meanwhile, continues to come into his own as a truck-sized human who is supernaturally fast. Both guys tied for second on the team in tackles, as defensive tackles. Four points each.

#3 Tommy Doman. 47 yards an attempt, a long of 58, and the Punt Of The Year? Get in here, buddy.

Honorable mention: Mike Barrett punched out the fumble that Derrick Moore grabbed for a touchdown; Cam Goode got consistent QB pressure. Colston Loveland had two crucial catches and blocked well. Blake Corum did Blake Corum things.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

45: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU)
23: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU)
20: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD)
19: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD), Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD)
15: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR)
13: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU),
10: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU)
6: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU), Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU)
1: Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rod Moore (HM PUR), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan's fourth quarter onslaught against Tagovailoa ends in an intentional grounding safety that closes the door on a regulation loss.

Honorable mention: Derrick Moore scores a defensive touchdown; Christian Boivin blocks a punt for a safety; Mike Sainristil intercepts two passes.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Maryland gets down to the one and punches in a touchdown as Will Johnson is beat on a fade route. This is more about the Implications for next week, but the implications are there, being implied.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy throws two terrible passes in a row, the second of which is actually intercepted. This is also about next week vibes. Tagovailoa goes nuts in the third quarter before reverting back into the Tagovailoa pumpkin. Josh Wallace gets torched on a double move and is removed for the remainder.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Hey! We made it through a game without issuing this! Woo!

Dishonorable mention: N/A

OFFENSE

McCarthy blips. In a word: yikes. JJ McCarthy had his second-worst game of the year, missing a bunch of throws he normally makes and taking the game from slightly annoying to moderately concerning when he threw two consecutive turnover-worthy passes at the end of the first half. The second was in fact intercepted, and Michigan had to endure a tense second half that was exactly one field goal away from being a fairly comfortable win.

There were some injury rumors swirling around, but I didn't think they had anything to do with his play. The wind was probably a factor, as was a Maryland defense that's actually a top 25 SP+ unit. Obvious thing to say: Michigan needs the McCarthy they've gotten for most of the season if they're going to beat OSU.

Well played. McCarthy's early keep didn't go well but I think that was more the Maryland defender playing it well than anything else. His initial path is crashing on the back and then he pops out at the last second to contain McCarthy:

MD OLB to bottom

My initial thought there was "ooh keep" and then he kept and I was perplexed that the OLB wasn't chasing the back.

can't let it ride on one shot [Wilcomes]

PAP PAP PAP. I sincerely hope that the whole season has been one long rope-a-dope, because I am losing my mind about Michigan's bizarre aversion to play action. Michigan has had a crushing ground game for three seasons now and entering the OSU game JJ McCarthy is 69th out of 90 P5 QBs with at least 100 attempts in percentage of play action passes. He's completing 82% of his play action passes for 12 yards an attempt.

At some point it becomes a problem when Maryland has a safety (Beau Brade, who Alex picked out as his dangerman, was fantastic) who makes ten solo tackles with an average depth of tackle of four yards. Michigan always thunks their head into the wall repeatedly the week before Ohio State and then comes out with a real gameplan for The Game, so I think all this complaining will be washed away by Saturday. But I am Irritated, Sir.

I am irritated because the approach here reminds me of Al Borges, who would happily run for one yard a carry on 27 attempts against Penn State if he got to take a few shots down the field. Michigan had the same approach here. They ran basically no first down play action despite getting fronts like this…

nine guys in box, first and ten

…until Moore decided to take a shot in the fourth quarter, which McCarthy missed. I despise the approach where you set a bunch of downs on fire and then take your occasional shot. Michigan should have run the flea flicker against TCU every play until they stopped it.

…that's all you've got? Michigan's two point conversion was bad. I did not like it. Michigan put the beef on the field, then split out the two tight ends, and threw a fade at AJ Barner. No offense to AJ Barner, but if I'm throwing a fade to a tight end I know which one I'm throwing it to. Also, what exactly was the advantage Michigan was supposed to gain there? If Maryland had not played a cornerback, ok, but they did. The opposite of Good Shit, Jedd.

[Paul Sherman]

A certain je ne sais quoi. Semaj Morgan just kind of has it, you know? He's just this guy. I wish I could give you reasons, but I cannot. He's just there, being backwards James.

DEFENSE

[Sherman]

I would have preferred to sit on Tagovailoa's head. The Tao of Taulia is this: he will drop NFL level dimes frequently and also he will do some of the most boggling stuff you've ever seen in your life. Despite the turnovers this was a relatively mild version. The second interception was a desperation heave into the wind that got knocked down. The first wasn't nearly as bad as Tagovailoa throwing an eight yard pass directly to an OSU safety, which I am still not mad about. The fumble and the grounding… well… yeah. I believe Seth calls this "TaTa Time."

When not experiencing TaTa Time, Michigan had some alarming moments. Tagovailoa missed his guy on a double move that toasted Josh Wallace, and Will Johnson got beat on a fly route that Tagovailoa did not miss. I think we know that Michigan's secondary is pretty good, but we don't know we know, if you get my drift.

With the sacks, Maryland's EPA/dropback was only 55th percentile. It felt worse than that because the big negatives from Tagovailoa wiped out 7.3 yards per play.

you shall not pass… er, run [Sherman]

The six man box. Michigan almost never added an extra hat to the box and thoroughly crushed the Maryland ground game. The three main Terp backs combined for 20 carries and 56 yards; add in 43 yards(!) in Tagovailoa sacks and Michigan achieved a rushing Rutger. The guys pointed at Maryland's iffy guards were excellent, particularly Graham (82 PFF grade), Benny (80), and Grant (77).

There were some brief glimmers of production from the Maryland ground game, mainly early. This was mostly stretch, which compounds the light box issue because on stretch you can just run away from the backside end without blocking him:

So Jenkins gets a playlong double and we see the kind of issues Michigan had early against Minnesota.

The implications. This sets up a fascinating subgame for The Game: halfway through the season the OSU twitter people who "know ball," as the kids say, were complaining vociferously about OSU's tendency to run stretch to the boundary for exactly two yards every time. OSU has since moved away from that to more gap stuff, which is working better. OSU's rush EPA/play has moved up from 104th a couple weeks ago to 92nd.

It's hard to tell how much of that improvement is real and how much of it is playing teams that aren't in the same league as Michigan and PSU defensively. OSU went from 89 yards on 39 carries against PSU to four straight good-to-great TreVeyon Henderson performances, give or take an early shower against the corpse of MSU.

Spot drop RPO business. Even though my mantra is "prep for OSU, prep for OSU, prep for OSU," I was occasionally frustrated by Michigan's passivity. It's one thing to prevent deep passes and set up third downs; it's another to play so passive that third and zero is easy:

I'm left hoping this is some sort of bust because what is going on here:

That's just Johnson not doing a defense. OSU is not much of an RPO team but I wouldn't put it past them to have it in the bag but not bring it out. Minnesota also gave Michigan some issues with RPOs. It is very hard to play two deep safeties and not get hammered by RPOs.

[Wilcomes]

I have to assume you can get multiple pressures on one play. PFF has Michigan down for 26 pressures. Tagovailoa threw 31 times. There were certainly more than five dropbacks on which Tagovailoa was clean. But still! Michigan had five sacks and forced a safety on an intentional grounding. Mason Graham was a main driver of this on stunts. His ability to explode, force OL to deal with him, and move them led to multiple plays where the looper got through, none more critical than the Kenneth Grant sack in the fourth quarter:

Mason's push-pull rips the center down just as Grant zips through, and the big man is Gabe Watson, but fast.

FWIW, Michigan's win rates on PFF are silly. McGregor, Graham, Harrell, Moore, and Stewart are all above 15%; after a slow start Stewart is at 22%. Grant, Jenkins, and Goode are all around 10, which is quite good for a DT. PFF also loves Barrett as a blitzer, but he's only rushed about three times a game.

FWIW, PFF has OSU and Maryland graded out more or less identically in pass blocking. OSU is 58th in D-1; Maryland is 65th.

Rotation update. I guess, like, whatever man? The DT rotation has not been cut down at all, but at this point who are you benching? Michigan has the #1, 4, 5,  and 6 DTs in the Big Ten per PFF grading. That's Graham, Jenkins, Goode(!?!), and Grant, respectively. The one guy not a the top of the conference is Benny, who's #26 but is coming off two excellent games—an 89 against PSU and a 76 against Maryland.

The LB rotation did look like it was set to get cut down before Barrett went out for a bit, and there was very little rotation at CB until Josh Wallace got beat on that double move and Michigan rolled with Sainristil on the outside and McBurrows as the nickel. That may be the contingency plan for this weekend.

The thing that continues to stand out is that Michigan is still rotating their safeties. There's a 2-1 advantage for the starters but Johnson got 24 snaps and Sabb 18. I don't put much on the safety PFF grades because the amount of data they're going off is so small but FWIW the backups are grading out better than the starters.

Speaking of McBurrows. He flashed some ability, particularly when he drove a Maryland WR into Tagovailoa on a keep:

I'm slightly nervous if the plan is to put Sainristil outside and play McBurrows. This is something they've shown over the course of the year—McBurrows has 130 snaps, all of them at nickel—but if it was clearly better they would have been running it more.

SPECIAL TEAMS

[Wilcomes]

Special teams hero du jour. Christian Boivin's name became known when he obliterated a Nebraska returner on a kickoff and now he's added a punt block. He's a redshirt sophomore so he could be a minor celebrity if he keeps turning in special teams plays.

The english. One point to Tommy Doman for uncorking the Orin Incandenza on a fourth quarter punt that landed and somehow corkscrewed away from the endzone after approaching within inches. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything quite like that, and he had to do that with the wind. Frame it.

[Wilcomes]

Put it in punt Valhalla.

Squibs: the latest way to game the kickoff rules? Maryland squibbed the opening kickoff, forcing Michigan to return it; Semaj Morgan only got to the 17. As the rules currently stand, if you give a fair catch signal and then field the ball after it hits the ground the ball is dead where you fielded it. So if you can get it to the returner on the squib you're probably going to game yourself some yards.

The problem with the strategy is that it's hard to control a squib and the second time Maryland attempted one it went out of bounds. I still think it might be worth experimenting with, at least until they adjust the rules to give you the 25 after a squib because the NCAA would very much like the illusion of kickoffs without any returns.

The ball was on the tee. You just screwed it up, Kyle.

MISCELLANEOUS

canny or excessively cautious? [Sherman]

Turtle vs Turtle. Maaan, I did not like the approach late in this game. Michigan had the ball on the plus 46 with eight minutes left; it was third and six; they ran the ball for three yards and punted. This felt considerably different than the Penn State game. Backing up PSU with a one-score lead was fine, because that offense wasn't going to do anything. Backing up Maryland, which had been consistently moving the ball over the past couple quarters, felt like it was asking Taulia to complete one pass and then Maryland is magically at the same spot you punted the ball from.

That did not happen as Michigan swarmed Tagovailoa, so maybe I'm just mad because Lloyd Carr coached games like this when he did not have a lethal defense.

Injury status. The wounded:

• LaDarius Henderson. After the game Moore said Henderson was "working through something" and would be back next week.
• Michael Barrett. Barrett re-entered the game and will clearly be available. He said he had a "little AC sprain" on his shoulder.
• Roman Wilson. Wilson was not cleared by the medical staff after taking a hit to the head and was on the sideline in those concussion glasses that make everyone look like they're 87 years old. Wilson was roaming the sideline after changing into street clothes, so it seems likely he'll clear concussion protocol midweek and be available.
• Myles Hinton. Moore said Hinton had "no structural damage or anything" after getting alarmingly rolled up on. Given how much pain he was in and how gingerly he walked to the locker room I have to believe that Hinton has sprained some ligaments. Even if the damage isn't structural I would be surprised if he was available.
• JJ McCarthy. Pregame rumors that McCarthy would be listed on the injury report were unfounded and McCarthy seemed to move about as well as he usually does on a couple of occasions where he carried the ball or left the pocket. Moore said he was "all good" after the game.

So Michigan escaped ~4 potentially serious injuries and should be at almost full strength on Saturday. (Probably) losing Hinton isn't ideal but Michigan still has Jones to act as a bonus OL and potentially enter if necessary.

The calls. There were some items I was a bit peeved about. They probably should have thrown a PI flag on the corner route to Morris, and the holding on Trente Jones was weak.

But! The intentional grounding call for a safety should hopefully put to rest any ideas that the Big Ten is conspiring to screw Michigan over with the officials. Officials are usually exceptionally generous about letting grounding slide, and you could argue that Tagovailoa was forced to throw off his back foot and thus didn't have the power to get it to the WR. I was surprised to see the flag come out even if my immediate reaction to that throw was "that's grounding."

Targeting roulette is good this week. IMO both of the targeting reviews in this game correctly decided not to eject the player in question. On both there was some helmet to helmet contact but the crown was not involved and the helmet contact was more glancing than head on; I don't think either hit cleared the "forcible" bar in the rule.

HERE

Best and Worst:

I just...I just don’t care about this game.  This happens almost every year around this time, usually before the Ohio State game, where the Wolverines just sort of sludgefart through a game against a good-but-overmatched opponent, suffer a couple of annoying injuries and some missteps, and we all sort of hand-wring about it.  Last year it was a late comeback against Illinois, embodied in this extremely topical image:

And that’s basically how I feel after this game.  In fact, this was less annoying in that Michigan never really trailed, Maryland never took the lead late in the 4th, and AFAIK Michigan didn’t lose a Heisman front-runner for the season right before the biggest game of the year.  Maryland does this to good teams; last season they were within 3 points of beating OSU well into the 4th quarter, and this year were leading into the 3rd quarter before absolutely falling apart.  It’s a Mike Locksley-coached team with Josh Gattis at OC and Tagovailoa at QB; it’s always going to be maximally annoying for Maryland fans whenever they play anyone in the upper echelon of this conference.

 

Iowatch!

One-Phase Football

After a brief foray above the 120th ranked SP+ offense (118th last week), Iowa decided that winning games with offense just isn’t for them. But their defensive ranking ALSO dropped a point, probably directly attributable to Cooper’s absence, which means that they’re in the red. A #3 defense would be awesome for any other team in the country. For Iowa, it’s collar-tugging nervousness.

State of our Open Threads:

This is just the conference schedule, but Penn State and Maryland by themselves account for 38.15% of all the tracked instances of words this season, not to mention 33.85% of all posts in all open threads thus far. Even so, efficiency has been relatively even through the last three games (2.29 yesterday, up only slightly from 2.32 last week, and less than the 2.26 at Purdue), if somewhat elevated, so while we've been a bit more stressed, it hasn't fluctuated violently as in other seasons. Overall, we are definitely calmer - relatively speaking - than in the past.

We can see these things in other ways, of course:

Normalized values are, of course, a lot of things in statistics, but here we are just using them to evaluate usage of certain word against their mean usage in threads. Even though you are only seeing the conference schedule here, what we get is basically a bunch of games where, with noted exceptions here and there, usage doesn't stray TOO far from the mean, and then Penn State and Maryland, which are on a different planet altogether mostly. I suppose I expected that, when I think about it, but the steepness of the increase has been amazing so far. Well, I say "so far" - there's only one game to go, so there isn't much farther to go really. ANYWAY...the larger point is that we've destroyed all the averages in the last two weeks, causing significant upward shifts just about everywhere.