Made just enough of these shots tonight to win [David Wilcomes]

Michigan 58, Penn State 57 Comment Count

Alex.Drain February 8th, 2022 at 11:50 PM

Michigan won a basketball game shooting 31.5% from the field. It was a horrific experience to watch and the quality of basketball was very poor, but Michigan got a victory on the road in State College and every win is big at this point in the season. The reason? Penn State shot the ball very poorly and the Wolverines went 19/22 at the line, hitting all their free throws late. In this ugly wrestling match in the mud, it was just enough to get it done. 

The first half was a dramatic difference between the feelingsball sense of how things were going and the actual score. Michigan struggled offensively to get much of anything going, while Penn State, a terrible midrange team, started knocking down junk shots at a high percentage. Sam Sessons feasted in iso against Kobe Bufkin, getting to the rack with ease, and even when the Wolverines were able to put up good defense, the Nittany Lions knocked down their shots. The Wolverines trailed by 11 points with four minutes to go and the opposing crowd started to get involved. The team's tournament odds were fading in a hurry. 

That's when the Wolverines put the engine in gear and closed the half well. An 11-0 run, adjusted upwards from 10-0 at halftime after a two point shot was revised to a three, got Michigan back into the game just before the break. Caleb Houstan and Brandon Johns Jr. both knocked down three pointers for a Wolverines team that had previously been ice cold from distance. A switch to zone from man-to-man on defense helped keep the PSU offense at bay, and the Lions didn't help themselves with a couple horrendous turnovers. After a great pass from DeVante' Jones hit Johns to set up a layup at the horn, Michigan was back in it. Despite the feeling of impending doom that was pervasive in the first half, the score was somehow tied at 34. 

Hunter Dickinson didn't make nearly as many of these shots as normal tonight [Wilcomes]

The second half was substantially worse than the first half from a quality of play standpoint. That could be summed up in the following statistic: Michigan won the first four minutes of the second half 2-0. Both teams struggled to hit open shots, and that was epitomized by a scuffling Hunter Dickinson, who shot 6/20 from the field, missing a litany of shots he typically makes. Penn State was no better on offense, and the field goal percentage stats for the two squads sank like stones. The second half oscillated between small Michigan leads and tied games, never expanding to a point of comfort, but the Maize & Blue were generally in front. 

John Harrar made a pair of free throws with 3:41 to go, and the score was tied at 48. Eli Brooks missed a layup, Dickinson grabbed the rebound, and he got hacked. The big man drained both free throws, beginning the clear theme of the final four minutes, which was Michigan's excellence at the free throw line. An Eli Brooks jumper a minute later put Michigan up 52-48, and the Wolverines began to put the clamps on defensively. Jalen Pickett missed a three pointer and the Wolverines held the ball with under two minutes to go, still up four. A basket would potentially end it, but Jones fired an inbounds pass off a PSU player, which ricocheted back off himself, and out of bounds for a turnover. 

That lifeline thrown to the Nittany Lions didn't go very far. Sam Sessoms missed a layup despite having a step on Terrance Williams II, and Dickinson got the rebound. Michigan wound the clock down under a minute and had an open hook shot for Dickinson, but the ball hit off the heel and PSU snagged the board. After Micah Shrewsberry called timeout, Seth Lundy drew a shooting foul. Lundy went 1/2 at the line, and with Michigan holding a three point lead and under 30 seconds left, it turned into a free throw battle. Caleb Houstan and Eli Brooks would combine to go 6/6 at the line down the stretch, never letting the home team hold the ball down one score. Penn State nailed a three at the horn down four, which made the final margin one, but the game was over at this juncture. Final: 58-57 Michigan. 

PSU didn't make many of these shots tonight either [Wilcomes]

The box score is a horror show to look at from an offensive standpoint. Dickinson led the team with 19, but again, shot 6/20 from the floor. Brooks scored 16 points on 4/9 from the field. The other three starters, Jones, Houstan, and Moussa Diabate, combined to go 4/17 from the floor, while Brandon Johns Jr. and Frankie Collins went 2/7 off the bench. The shots didn't fall, but Michigan hit 86.4% from the line, including all those late high-leverage free throws. An interesting development was Diabate being benched for a large stretch in the second half for the second consecutive game, leading to one segment with Johns playing the five. Jalen Pickett led PSU with 14, followed by Sessoms with 13. No other Lion scored in double digits. 

Tonight's victory began a three games in five days stretch for Michigan, who face a compressed schedule over the final month of the season due to rescheduled contests. Thursday brings Purdue to Crisler, while Saturday brings Ohio State to town. Both are ranked in the top 25 and both represent opportunities for the vaunted marquee win that Michigan desperately needs. The Thursday game is scheduled for 9:00 PM EST and is set to be televised on ESPN. There is no content after the jump.

Comments

Indy Pete - Go Blue

February 8th, 2022 at 11:56 PM ^

That was the third bleeding eye game for Michigan in the B1G. Remarkably, Michigan won all 3 of them. (Others were home vs NW and Nebraska). Win ugly, make the tourney, pray for a couple of hot Houstan games…

MGlobules

February 9th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^

I'm trying to be glass half-full guy down the stretch here. I thought I spied these positives last night, even as the dust settled on another near-disaster: 

1. We shot poorly, but we actually tend to shoot well. Five of the remaining games are at home. 

2. Hunter Dickinson was really making an effort with drives to the hoop, and succeeded--in good degree--in a way I'd been ready to give up on. When he plays terrible D his arms look comically short; they looked long last night. (Joke.)

3. Caleb is starting to get it on D (that or he had easier assignments last night). His shooting touch should re-emerge, especially if he wants to be drafted. 

4. Eli has been showing signs of life on offense, and made two ice-veined free throws when it most counted. 

 

aiglick

February 9th, 2022 at 12:04 AM ^

Michigan paid the price of admission and has one victory in this stretch in hand. Now it needs to see if it can get over the hump and beat the league’s best teams. One of two would be huge. Two of two and we’re on the right side of the bubble for the moment.

RedRum

February 9th, 2022 at 12:13 AM ^

I mean, we get excited for football for a November and the BBall team hits a rough patch. I was expecting sweet sixteen. 
 

if one has no expectations, one has no strident disappointment with the BS Netflix has. I mean, fuck the ozarks, and fuck you. 

TrueBlue2003

February 9th, 2022 at 12:31 AM ^

Amazingly, of their remaining nine games, eight (!!) are quadrant 1 games and likely to remain so (the ninth is only a Q3 game at home vs Rutgers). 

Five home opportunities for Q1 wins.  Need at least one of the next two. And three of the five. Plus, Rutgers and steal one more road win and that'll be enough.

chatster

February 9th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^

Rutgers (13-9 and 6th in the Big Ten) was 99th in the NET rankings as of Monday night’s games. Their record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games is 8-3, two games worse than Michigan’s 8-1 record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. 

They’ve got good wins against Purdue (NET rank of 5), Iowa (NET rank of 22) and Michigan State (NET rank of 23), but they’re hurt by three straight losses in November: 73-70 at DePaul (NET rank of 103), 53-51 at home to Lafayette (NET rank of 320) and 85-83 at Massachusetts (NET rank of 167) and a recent 79-78 overtime road loss to Northwestern (NET rank of 68) after coming back from 24 points down in the second half to tie it at the end of regulation. Give Rutgers another 12 points combined in those four games and they'd now be 17-5 with a lock on an NIT bid and an outside chance for an NCAA bid.

Michigan’s best wins are on the road win at Indiana (NET rank of 33), at home over San Diego State (NET rank of 52) and at Northwestern (NET rank of 68). Michigan's only loss by fewer than six points was at home in November, 67-65 to Seton Hall, and they've got six losses by at least ten points.

Like Michigan, which they’ve beaten at home, Rutgers pretty much is playing for an NIT bid unless they win the Big Ten Tournament or somehow manage to win at least five of their remaining games, five of which are against Top 25 teams. 

If Rutgers goes 3-5 in their final eight games, they finish 16-14 and would have clinched an NIT bid by finishing two games over .500 before the Big Ten Tournament. If Michigan goes 3-6 in their final nine games, to finish at 15-15 before the Big Ten Tournament, then they’d have to do no worse than 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament to clinch an NIT bid.

TrueBlue2003

February 9th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^

Remember also that home and road matters.  It's not a team that is in a quadrant, it's on a game by game basis depending on difficulty of that game.  The game at Rutgers was a Q2 game, the game at home is Q3 (for now).

Bet yeah, crazy that a team that's 7-5 in the conference with wins over MSU, Iowa and Purdue could be 99th in NET.

But that home loss to 321st ranked (!!!) Lafayette is a major anchor with the loss to 198th Umass also really bad.

RAH

February 9th, 2022 at 1:59 AM ^

I'm not sure if Hunter made a basket in the second half. I wonder if his legs were tired. He seemed to be playing hard but all his jump/set shots hit the front of the rim. And he didn't have his usual touch with hooks and other shots close to the rim. 

XM - Mt 1822

February 9th, 2022 at 6:12 AM ^

to go with your last line:  there was no content in the game, either.  yeesh. 

glad we won but all i could think about the game was

'u-g-l-y, you ain't got no alibi, you ugly!  yeah, yeah, you ugly!!

  

WormWould

February 10th, 2022 at 7:07 AM ^

Dog, we had PLENTY of hideous games like that one under Beilein. E.g., when we *lost* at PSU, in a game we really could've used the W. Let's not whitewash the Beilein era. In fact, there were a couple years we barely squeaked into the tourney, due to turning it on late in the season and the conference tourney. Juwan and our boys this year could still pull that off.

blueboy

February 9th, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^

Selfishly I'm kind of glad he's struggling. The way he was playing, he seemed ticketed to be a 1st-round pick. He still might be, but this definitely increases the chance he sticks around next year.  

 

Our chances next year are heavily dependent on what Diabate and Dickinson decide to do. If both stay, I really like our chances next year. If one stays and the other leaves, we should still be all right, but if both head out, we're going to be pretty fucked without major help from the transfer portal.  

MaizeBlueA2

February 9th, 2022 at 8:23 AM ^

I've been saying all year, wait until the end of the season...this is a team that is going to get hot late and be a nightmare match-up for the high seeds in the tournament.

We are officially at that point late in the year.

These next two games make or break the season, IMO.

Every game from here on out has to be approached like it's an Elite 8, win to advance or done.

LloydCarr97

February 9th, 2022 at 8:26 AM ^

If we beat Purdue Thursday night, I believe we’ll have a good shot to get in the tourney. I wouldn’t trade Coach Howard for  any young coach in CBB. He’s an elite recruiter and an underrated game planner (Like mixing up defensive schemes against Purdue). Even Coach K have had seasons where his teams have struggled.

True Blue 9

February 9th, 2022 at 8:31 AM ^

I like your take here. I think the ONLY thing I struggle with is, yes I agree Coach K, Calipari, etc. have had teams that just didn't gel but those teams seemed to always get better as the year went on. 

There's no nice way to put it. This team has stunk basically from day 1 and are not getting better. Or if they are, it's in super small stuff. Houstan is still a mess, Diabate seems to be getting worse, Brandon Johns is still a head case...the list goes on and on. 

I'm with you that Coach Howard gets a pass for this year. But gosh if next season doesn't feel really important to keep the momentum going. Another stinker next year and some questions will start being asked...

LloydCarr97

February 9th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^

I certainly can feel your sentiment. Think about this, early in Coach B's tenure people were upset with how the teams were playing and even some fans wanted him fired, but we all know how his legacy turned out. Coach Howard went to an elite 8 last year without his best player. He won the B1G conference. Recruited a talented class (which they may have been slightly overrated because of the covid year and the normal evaluations that take place suffered a bit).

It is my belief that as they grow and gel as young players this team will compete for the conference title and the ncaa title in the next couple years. I think what we have to be mindful of is that every young team is not the fab five or the young Kentucky/Duke teams that come on the scene and play like grizzled veterans. great observation though True Blue 9.

TrueBlue2003

February 9th, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^

Franz was our best player last year but Livers was a close second.

I say that based on the eye test and Franz being a slightly better, more versatile defender and a better creator and Torvik's Box Plus/Minus supports the assertion (as did the NBA). Not a perfect metric by any means but a data point:

2021 BPM:

Franz 10.6

Livers 9.1

Eli 6.4

Dickinson 6.2

Brown 5.0

Johns 4.5

Davis 3.9

Smith 3.1

That all passes the eye test, IMO.  And those are absurdly elite BPMs from both of them.  Losing those two was huge (as was losing Brown and to a lesser extent Davis and Smith).

True Blue 9

February 9th, 2022 at 8:26 AM ^

I honestly feel guilty even saying this but man.....watching this team is unenjoyable. Like, late Ellerbe/early Amaker years unenjoyable. I think back to some of the early Beilein years and those teams weren't always good but they always fought, they (almost always) at least played basketball that didn't make my eyes bleed. 

For the first time in probably 15 years, I'm genuinely not enjoying watching a Michigan basketball team. I'll 1000% give Coach Howard a pass for this season but next year feels like a really important season. 

ak47

February 9th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^

This is some real revisionist history on the beilein era, there was some ugly basketball. Michigan went 16-16 and lost games to njit, lost to Easter in a game that finished 45-42, by 30 points to Arizona, and according to Wikipedia had a game they scored 4 second half baskets in while starting Ricky Doyle.

And all of that was before LeVert got injured for the year. Everyone has a down team in college basketball sometimes.

True Blue 9

February 9th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^

Fair enough. That season is a good example. I dunno, I still stand by it's been a long time since this program has been this unenjoyable to watch. Zero progress, zero dogs...just ugly basketball. But appreciate your callout on the early Beilein years. 

ak47

February 9th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^

That was year 8 for Beilein. The early years were also ugly but not worth holding against anyone for obvious reasons. Every coach has bad years, its just reality in college basketball. With roster sizes and recruiting its nearly impossible to have a real level of depth so if the star freshman doesn't hit, or a guy doesn't make the expected/hoped for year one to year 2 jump your team can be put together poorly and be bad. If Brandon Johns is shooting 40% from three and looking like he did in the tournament, allowing Diabate to come off the bench as a spark plug, helping to space the floor, providing some defensive cover for Houstan, etc. this team looks a lot better this year.

Also going into last night Michigan was still a top 20 kenpom offense, they have some dry spells and it can get ugly but honestly the offense they have put together with no shooters or good wings is kind of impressive.

TrueBlue2003

February 9th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^

yep, that season was similar but definitely uglier than this one, even when Levert was playing (he played during the losses to NJIT and EMU).

The composition of the team was somewhat similar too, prior to the injuries that team suffered.  One star surrounded by mostly young guys that didnt know what they were doing.  The difference is those were 3 stars.  These are 5 stars so it feels a lot more disappointing.  But when you don't know what you're doing, it doesn't really matter.  College coaches will make you pay.

The following season was more similar from statistical standpoint and in terms of results.  The first Duncan Robinson year in which Michigan made the first four as an 11 seed, won there and lost in the first round to ND.  That team similarly had a solid offense (they were 30th in kenpom, this year's team is 23rd) but also a terrible defense (they were 92nd to this years 111th).  And that years team was 50th in kenpom and obviously snuck into the tournament.  This years team is 49th in kenpom and just on the wrong side of the bubble for now. 

jmblue

February 9th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^

Oh, there were definitely some ugly games under Beilein, especially in the first few years.  Even the 2012 Big Ten champion had to slog it out some nights and win games in the 50s. 

The 2012-13 team was a turning point, when we started having elite offenses.  That was Beilein's sixth year.

UWSBlue

February 9th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^

They've played enough games together, know the scheme and understand the level of competition in DI basketball. I feel like this is when the preseason hype for these kids should actually kick in. #HotTake