moussa diabate

On November 16, 2021, the University of Michigan gave a five-year extension to Men's Basketball Head Coach Juwan Howard, something your author called "a no brainer". At the time, Michigan was #4 in the country, 2-0 on the young season after knocking off Buffalo and Prairie View A&M. To that point, Howard's record as Michigan's head coach was 44-17, coming off a Big Ten regular title and an Elite Eight appearance. The team he was coaching was hyped, with sky high expectations following 2020-21's roaring success and adding a recruiting class that public scouting services loved. It all made sense. After all, Michigan Men's Basketball had established itself as a giant of the B1G over the preceding decade, winning three regular season titles and two conference tournament titles, making the Sweet 16 six times, the Elite Eight four times, and the Final Four twice. 

That night, after the extension was announced, Michigan played host to a so-so Seton Hall team that would make the NCAAs as an eight seed. They lost that game, the first sign that the 2021-22 team was perhaps not going to be what the expectations have conveyed. In hindsight, it was the beginning of a larger slide into despair for the Michigan program. Beginning with that game, the men's basketball team is 43-47 in their past 90 games, leading up to the present. They slipped into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed, then missed the tournament the following season, culminating in this year, when Michigan is 8-16 and has a chance to be the first Michigan team to win only single digit games in four decades.

How did it all collapse so quickly? Today we will look back through the journey and perhaps glean some overarching lessons on where and how it all went wrong: 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How it all went wrong]

I made several trips last summer to get a detailed look at 2023 signee Papa Kante. Suiting up for New York Rens in the Nike EYBL league from April - July, this was a great opportunity to see how Kante stacked up against the very best competition in the country. 

**Note - Papa is #5 in white/blue in the clips below**

Switchability/On-Ball Defense

The fact that we're starting off a deep-dive analysis with the on-ball defense of a 6'10 prospect sheds light as to Kante's defensive prowess. I like to initially examine physical facets when projecting on-ball defense and Papa grades out extremely well at the respective position. Kante has superb lateral agility and is able to flip the hips and change direction with ease. His stop and go movement is also an asset, as Papa is able to decelerate/accelerate quite well. Add in good straight line speed and we're taking about a very good athlete that checks all the boxes for a switchable big in the B10.

In terms of technique, the defensive stance immediately pops out. At roughly the :25 second mark in the clip above, Kante gets considerably lower than a 6'7 wing in top-75 overall prospect Eric Dailey. That level of flexibility in tandem with good agility allows him to turn his hips and change direction like a much smaller player because he's never in a flat-footed position. He beat Dailey to the spot twice on that possession after the initial blitz in a good display of athleticism and defensive prowess. 

The very first possession of the clip above sees Papa matched up with former #1 overall prospect G.G. Jackson, who is more of a big wing/PF than guard. On an island 25 feet from the basket, Jackson changes direction and hits the gas in what he anticipates will be an easy foray to the rim against a big. Kante beats him to the spot with ease before swatting the shot attempt. For the more football-centric audience, this the hoops equivalent of an Edge in coverage against a TE............and running the route for him.

Papa projects to be a switchable defender against most teams in the B10, giving Juwan Howard a legit option to blitz and/or switch against ballscreens. While I don't quite expect him to show flashes of shutting down quick-twitch guards like Moussa Diabate, Kante should be able to stay in front of most guards in the B10 for a few dribbles. At minimum, Papa will allow for a blitz + recover approach that provides adequate disruption against pick-and-roll heavy offenses. And while the NY Rens didn't use blitz + recover much on the EYBL circuit, he was extremely impressive in the few instances where that did come to fruition as seen below. 

[Hit THE JUMP for more impact defense]

A few hours after Moussa Diabate announced his departure from the Michigan Basketball program, fellow freshman Caleb Houstan followed him out the door: 

#BREAKING: @umichbball freshman forward Caleb Houstan is staying in the NBA Draft.https://t.co/9jGzzMzoYe

— Michigan Daily Sports (@theblockm) June 1, 2022

It had been trending this way for some time, so the decision should not come as a surprise to those following the dialogue. Houstan declined an invite to the Draft Combine in May, which indicated either certain return, or that he already had assurance from an NBA team that he was going to be drafted. All the reporting indicated the latter. Mock drafts have continued to show Houstan as a borderline first round prospect, with ESPN's Jonathon Givony pegging him at #25 in his most recent mock. 

Houstan averaged 10.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, while shooting 38.4% from the field and 35.5% from three as a freshman this past season. His rookie year with the Wolverines was enigmatic, especially for a 5* prospect who had lottery pick projections when the year began. Houstan had his moments, games where the threes went down and he seemed like an indispensable piece of the offense, including 19 points against Indiana in Assembly Hall and 21 against Illinois and Rutgers at home.

But there were also ugly performances where Houstan's athletic shortcomings and defensive struggles were magnified, while contributing next to nothing offensively. That includes a grand total of five points and five rebounds in a combined 60 minutes (!!!) against Tennessee and Villanova in the NCAA Tournament. There were nights where you saw the raw shooting promise, but too often those were immediately bookended by games that were the Tony Snell meme personified. 

Houstan takes good size with him to the NBA, 6'8" and 205 lbs., and if given space and time to shoot, he is an accurate three-point shooter. More importantly, he was once a 5* recruit who scouts saw many times during his time at Montverde Academy next to the likes of Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes. Once a 5*, always a 5*, in the minds of many scouts, and that, above all else, is carrying Houstan to the NBA Draft this month. 

Juwan Howard and Michigan now have some work to do on their 2022-23 roster. They have just 11 players on scholarship, two below the maximum 13. There is still a clear hole in the backcourt, and a need at wing or PF too. The transfer portal will likely be the source to solve plug these holes, and following that over the next couple weeks will be a likely hobby for many Michigan hoops fans. There is no content after the jump.