A series looking at Michigan's 2021-22 basketball outlook. Previously: center, power forward.

ROSTER

Caleb Houstan (Fr.): top-ten recruit stands 6'8" and knocked down more than half his threes as a junior. That'll do. Well rounded game but not likely to generate many shots himself; can attack closeouts. Power mushroom Zak Irvin.

Isaiah Barnes (Fr.): Bouncy sniper seems underrated by recruiting sites since he's 6'6", shot 45% from three as a junior, and plays above the rim. No doubt some rough edges to smooth out, but should be ready for 10 MPG maybe?

Jace Howard (So.): Coach's son got some Kenpom time last year, caused mom to tweet explosively whenever he got a bucket. Recruiting rankings (#390 on composite) suggest that if he's going to emerge as a contributor it might not be this year. Has requisite size, though.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

Is the youth here a concern?

Probably not. It is going to be young. This spot is going to be the least experienced by some distance, and it doesn't seem like there are potential reinforcements from either the guards (maaaybe Zeb Jackson could chip in?) or the fours (no viable candidates to play down, IMO). But since the rest of the lineup goes senior, senior, senior, sophomore and both candidates for major playing time should thrive in roles where they absorb shots and don't have to create them, it'll be fine.

It might be a different story if Michigan hadn't picked up Devante' Jones and there were more questions about whether they'd be able to generate shots from the pick and roll, but between Jones, Collins, and Hunter Dickinson there should be enough folks with gravity on the court to suffer a corner gunner or two. Houstan in particular is a guy who cannot be given a sliver of space. Matt D:

…one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing.

That junior number on threes is an eyepopping 53%. While surrounded by Cade Cunningham and various other five-stars, yeah, but that's good in an empty gym. When Dickinson's gravity results in Michigan passing it around the horn, a Houstan triple is going to be one of the best shots in the Big Ten.

[After THE JUMP: Houstan's mature game, and a bouncy freshman sniper]

I've been watching games for Michigan commits this year—a new thing since now Michigan has commits who end up TV—and one thing that jumps out when you watch Houstan is the maturity of his game.

He doesn't press for shots even if he hasn't scored much. He shoots if he's got a good shot, attacks closeouts if they're overzealous, and moves the ball along if he doesn't have an opportunity. The video above also has various defensive possessions where he's able to mirror smaller guys to the basket. He needs to change very little about how he approaches the game to fit directly in as a secondary option on a college roster. (I love Frankie Collins to bits but a guy like him is inevitably going to have an adjustment period as Chet-type persons become significantly more common; Houstan is plug and play in a way he isn't.)

Meanwhile nothing about college athleticism is going to surprise a guy who's spent the last couple years practicing against the likes of Scottie Barnes, Jalen Duren, and Cunningham. Houstan also played all the IMG/Oak Hill/etc academies loaded with the best recruits in the country. The average athleticism of his opposition may actually go down. Since he's not going to be relied on to be a primary creator, he'll be good to go.

Plug Houstan in for 30 minutes and it'll be fine.

What can Michigan expect from Barnes?

Per Sam Webb, chatter around the program is that Barnes may end up being the best NBA prospect in this recruiting class despite being ranked outside the top 100. "May end up" is doing an awful lot of work in that sentence, of course. Barnes is not battle-tested or scouted to death like Diabate, Houstan, and Collins are. He's not a McDonald's All American like Bufkin is. He spent most of his high school career at a run-of-the-mill high school that wasn't high on the radar before transferring to Chicago power Simeon for an abbreviated, delayed, not-particularly-scouted senior year.

But also:

Dude can get up. That last alley-oop where he reaches behind him is eyepopping.

Barnes got rated as a shooting guard a few places, which is quite a compliment for a guy who's occasionally listed at 6'7". Matt D saw him as a small forward but gave some indication of why someone might project him as a two:

He’s a physically developed athlete with some vertical explosion at the rim when finishing. Solid first-step acceleration for a wing and good strength for a senior-to-be in High School. I don’t think absorbing contact will be an issue for Isaiah. He projects to have a college ready frame as a freshman and should be able to compete physically the first day he sets foot on campus.

As a shooter, he displays very good lower body balance on his jumper with good elevation. Has a bit of extra motion on his mechanics, but nothing that’s of great concern. Hits pull-up jumpers from both distance and midrange. Good catch and shoot floor spacer as well.

Barnes is intriguing as a shot creator with an above average handle and the ability to change direction/speed off the with a live dribble. Projects as versatile wing that can score from multiple spots on the court and have some on-ball duty depending on the matchup.

Barnes is a guy whose scouting doesn't match the ranking. Brian Snow:

"The first thing … that jumps off the page is his combination of size and athleticism. A wing who can handle the ball and at times plays on the ball, Barnes is a tremendous athlete with talent and upside. … has all the physical tools you would want, there are some legit questions with Barnes …  also has skill. He can handle the ball, he is a capable outside shooter, and he also shows the ability to pass. Quite simply, in flashes, Barnes shows you everything you would want from a prospect." -

"In flashes" is a big caveat. But here's a guy who's huge, can shoot, handle, and pass. All right. Per his junior highlight tape, he hit 45% from three, and if he can come anywhere near maintaining that he's probably going to be the most underrated prospect in his recruiting class. Again, "if" is doing a lot of work there.

Barnes could be anything from a 20 MPG fixture at the 2/3 to a deep bench option depending on what happens when he shows up on campus. I'm guessing he hits the middle of that range, acting as a Houstan doppelganger for 10 MPG with a bit more GRIII thunderdunk and considerably less polish.

How crushing is the defensive dropoff going to be here?

the rightful DPOY [Campredon]

Michigan's starting 3 is off to the NBA and fielding 13-minute scouting videos in which the first five minutes are all on defense:

Those are Shaq-sized shoes to fill. Wagner's on/off splits are bonkers:

That is a wing (A WING [A WIIIIIIIIIING]) singlehandedly responsible for a 50% jump in TO rate, a 40% drop in FT rate, a four-point drop in OREB rate, a seven-point dip in 3PA/FGA, and a five-point drop in 2P%. And, no this isn't an Austin Davis effect. About 25% of the possessions in both bins feature Davis. Wagner did that irrespective of who was at center.

There is no replacing that. Wagner's probably the most impactful defender Michigan has had in 20 years. Yeah maybe there's a center who had a bigger impact but this is a Tony-Gonzalez-in-your-fantasy-draft situation. I repeat: a wing!

This is going to be a major hit. While both Houstan and Barnes have a lot of defensive upside, neither is a German unicorn. Houstan's best fit college defensively is probably as a 4, and he's going to be a 3 by necessity. The best it seems reasonable to hope for is that both are average-ish B10 defenders who aren't responsible for wiping off 16 points off the board every 100 possessions.

Michigan can expect to take some steps forward elsewhere, particularly at PG (where Mike Smith was dedicated but very small) and C (where Austin Davis minutes are now Moussa Diabate minutes and Hunter Dickinson goes from freshman to sophomore), and that will mitigate some of the damage here. It won't eliminate it; Michigan is almost certainly going to drop back to the pack on D.