isaiah barnes

We just finished recording a podcast segment about next year's basketball team and forgot to mention him, so this can't be that much of a surprise.

Barnes came in with the 2021 class as an athletic body that Michigan hoped to develop into the kind of three-and-D-plus slashing wing-guard that they've desperately needed since Isaiah Livers graduated. Two years of not playing when Michigan so desperately needed guys remotely like what Barnes projected to was the first clue it's not happening here. The next clue was Barnes being unavailable for the back end of the season once the rotation solidified without him. His production the few times earlier this year that he did get on the court was:

Hopefully a new venue will unlock the player we always hoped he would be. They did get a redshirt on him so he should have three years of eligibility left to do so.

Michigan's roster for the 2023-'24 season still has a lot of question marks. Here's the depth chart for next year as it stands:

Will Hunter Dickinson, Jett Howard, and/or Kobe Bufkin set out for the pros? Will Joey Baker get a 6th year? Does Williams want to come back if they get a starting PF in the portal? Does Llewellyn want to come back after a medshirt to be the backup guard? What's it like having a backup guard? Commence offseason.

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2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half, Power Rankings Upper Half, Guards

Earlier today we kicked off the positional preview portion of this season preview by looking at guards. Now we pivot to the wing position, encompassing a range of SG to PF and totaling five names. It begins with a lanky shooter who is poised to be Michigan basketball's next great Canadian star: 

Caleb Houstan

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’8/205

Recruiting Profile: Five-star, #10 overall, #3 PF, Hello post

After the tease that was the 2020 recruiting class, Juwan Howard’s first five star to officially commit and arrive in Ann Arbor is Caleb Houstan. Houstan is a native of Mississauga, ON, the third notable Michigan player in the last decade to hail from the Greater Toronto Area (following Iggy Brazdeikis and Nik Stauskas). Houstan left his Ontario roots for high school, moving to attend Montverde Academy in Florida, where he played alongside future top five NBA draft picks Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes. As a junior, he played a mostly off-ball shooting role and shot 52% from beyond the arc. That number dipped to 39% as Houstan was asked to play a more central role in the offense as a senior, following the graduation of many of Montverde’s heavy hitters, but both of those percentages indicate a very good shooting talent.

Pretty much everyone agrees that Caleb Houstan can shoot the basketball. Here’s some of Matt’s scouting report (emphasis mine):

“Houstan is one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing.

While he was primarily an off-ball shooter for a loaded Montverde team during his junior season, Houstan was more of an on-ball option in the half-court for Canada at the 2019 FIBA U16s. He did display some ability to create plays for himself and others in that setting, but he’s not a shifty prospect that changes direction with a live dribble very often. He’s more adept at attacking in a straight line after getting off-ball screens, while flashing the occasional pull-up from midrange and isolation drive from the wing.

As a finisher, I really like Caleb’s willingness to use his body to negate shotblocking. He consistently gets into the chest of the defender to create space and convert or draw fouls. He shot nearly 9 free throws per contest during the 2019 FIBAs because of this exact approach. That is extremely impressive for a prospect whose best weapon is a catch-and-shoot jumper. While he’s not a great athlete, his size/length and physicality as a finisher probably means he’ll be solid at drawing free throws for the Wolverines when attacking closeouts.”

Houstan’s role in Michigan’s offense as a freshman will more closely resemble his junior year at Montverde, likely receiving passes from Devante’ Jones, Hunter Dickinson, and Eli Brooks, and being asked to get up his shot. There’s a lot of reason to believe that will go well. Athleticism is not considered one of the top components of Houstan’s profile, but his shooting ability and length will make him a dangerous offensive player at Michigan, and it finds him in the lottery of preseason NBA Draft projections.

Defensively, no one expects Houstan to be a 1:1 replacement for Franz Wagner at the SF position, but Matt didn’t seem too worried in his hello post about Houstan’s ability to at least be playable defensively:

Defensively, Houstan is solid at jumping passing lanes on the wing where his length aids him in getting deflections and steals. He doesn’t move well enough to defend legitimate guards, but his size/length will allow him to defend pure wings as a freshman and he’ll likely add enough muscle mass/strength to defend bully-ball power forwards down the line.

If Houstan can be a solid defender, shoot 38-40% from three on solid volume, and occasionally put the ball on the floor to get fouls at the rack, he will be a great B1G player who Michigan will gladly start at the three.

Houstan highlights, for those interested: 

Role: Houstan enters the season as the projected starting SF (he started the exhibition against WSU). The maturity he brings to his game and the polished skillset as a plug and play shooter make him nearly impossible to keep out of the lineup so long as the threes are going down at a reasonable rate. When we talk about Michigan needing to replace perimeter shooting talent that exited after last season, we’re really turning to Caleb Houstan and quoting Rick Blaine by saying “here’s looking at you, kid”. Houstan enters the season as a frontrunner for B1G Freshman of the Year, and if he clicks, it’s quite possible he sees close to 30 minutes per game at the SF position. Houstan is the most crucial freshman on Michigan’s roster because of that sizable projected role.

[AFTER THE JUMP: The junkyard dog has slimmed down]

The Wolverines secured the fourth pledge in the 2022 class today with 4-star wing Jett Howard making his commitment to Michigan. 

GURU RANKINGS

There is general consensus from all four services that Jett is just a cut below 5-star status with an overall ranking in the 34-44 range. Howard has been a stockriser since the Spring when his playmaking ability for others took him from a 50-70 type prospect to now being considered one of the best perimeter prospects in America. 

There is some variation on list heights, with 247 and ESPN going with 6'7. Rivals goes with an outdated 6'5 and EM Scouting splits the difference at 6'6. Weight is where the bigger discrepancy comes in. Rivals and ESPN go with 180 and 185 pounds. It only takes one look at Jett to determine those numbers are nowhere near accurate. EM Scouting gives him 210 pounds, while 247 goes all the way up to 220. For context, Jett checked in at 6'5 (without shoes) and just a tad under 194 pounds at the 2019 Nike Elite 100. It's safe to say he's put on at least 10 pounds since then and likely and inch or two. 

SCOUTING

As someone that has a plethora of live viewings on Howard over the last year in multiple settings, I can confidently say versatility is his biggest asset. At 6’6 - 6'7, he can potentially slot anywhere between the 2-4 spots and excel at each depending on Michigan roster construction and matchups with the opposition.

Jett has long been touted as a knockdown shooter and he's certainly an above-average/good perimeter shotmaker, but he's more than that. While he was more of an off-ball floorspacer for IMG, the most impressive part of his game in recent months has been the ability to make plays for others. Howard had some really strong moments over the spring/summer on the travel-ball scene as a half-court facilitator in ball-screens that created easy shots for his roll-man. He also thrived with transition dimes that hit bigs/wings in stride for easy buckets.

As a shot-creator for himself, Howard flashes the ability to change direction/speed with a live dribble in order to create some space, but doesn't really have the handle to string together combination moves that puts defenders on their heels. He's more adept at using ballscreens to get space or using a single crossover/hesitation to get to his pull-up game. Jett probably doesn't have the shiftiness or acceleration to be a primary on-ball weapon in Ann Arbor, but definitely looks the part of a secondary shot-creator with his combination of size/handle/vision.

Circling back to the shooting prowess, Howard makes pull-up jumpers off the bounce with regularity from both distance and midrange. He takes and makes tough shots, which is a valuable commodity at any level of basketball. But his percentages aren't necessarily that of an elite shooter, partly due to difficulty associated with the aforementioned pull-ups. Beyond that though, Jett has been above-average on catch-and-shoot attempts in my live viewings but not necessarily a marksmen in the mold of an Isaiah Livers/Caleb Houstan type. His shot origin/ball placement is a bit too close to his face and he ends up leaning his head a bit to the left to compensate for the ball placement when getting into the upward motion of his shot mechanics. I'm sure some of that will be corrected at Michigan and more consistency is likely to be the result. 

Howard is a good finisher in transition and run + jump scenarios in half-court settings where he can elevate off two legs in space when attacking closeouts. But he doesn't have enough lift to finish over legit length in traffic. Some of his attempts at the rim can be a bit off-balance as he's tries to go around defenders in the air and doesn't get the requisite elevation to convert. At the next level, I'm sure Dad will teach him to use his superior strength/mass to go through defenders/get into the chest to create space in the air. 

Jett is a solid athlete, but lacks quick-twitch ability in terms of acceleration and elevation. His agility grades out at the same level, which is to say adequate, but not great. His biggest physical advantage is mass/strength. Howard has some real potential to be a bully-ball straight-line driver/finisher if he can incorporate more physicality to his game. He's more of a finesse player at this stage of development. 

On the defensive end Howard is at his best checking big wings and PF types. He does a really good job of using 3/4 fronting technique and having active feet to deter easy passes. His size/length is a real plus when contesting jumpers and it allows him to cover a nice amount of ground. Jett doesn’t move well enough to defend legit guards with good speed/shiftiness and won't be tasked with doing that at Michigan, but I definitely like his potential as a wing defender.

247's April 2021 evaluation largely echoes my take with high-praise for Howard's versatility:

"Jett Howard's combination of size, shooting, and versatility is translatable. He has a strong frame, a solid motor on the defensive end, and can knock down down the open jumper with range. His versatility is mainly displayed in his ability to help out at the point guard position in a pinch. He is a good facilitator who can run an offense and make the right decisions with the basketball. However, he will be more effective in a secondary supportive ball handling role because of his efficiency as a three-point shooter while playing off the ball. Howard has the ability to play all three perimeter positions and will be a valuable asset to a program for multiple years."

Jamie Shaw of Rivals called Jett the best SF in attendance at the NBPA Top 100 Camp in late July:

"While Howard may have started the camp off a little slow and ended the camp seventh overall in scoring and 3-point percentage at 11.4 points and 36.4-percent. The 6-foot-5 Howard is the No. 40 prospect overall in the 2022 class and played 23.8 minutes per game, and showed his composure on the ball and his burst and ability to score the ball. Howard plays with a great pace and a lot of strength, it was his confidence and composure that stood out, also his willingness to compete."

[After THE JUMP: stats, film and projection]