let's start again

A series looking at Michigan's 2021-22 basketball outlook. Previously: center, power forward, small forward, shooting guard.

ROSTER

DeVante' Jones (Sr.): Coastal Carolina transfer shot 54/33 from floor with big FT rate and 87% shooting at the line. Had top 50 assist rate as sophomore before being pushed into more of an off-ball role last year. Crafty more than explosive.

Franke Collins (Fr.): Lightning-quick freshman has sauce levels worthy of Michigan's recent point guard legacy. Makes cynical blog type persons describe him in broad talk radio terms like "winner." Shooting questionable. 

Eli Brooks (Sr.+): Brooks was the nominal PG for about 20% of Michigan minutes last year and this went just fine, with TOs ticking down and 2P% ticking up. If he gets some PG minutes that'll work.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

How is DeVante' Jones going to translate from the Sun Belt?

We have a fairly close comparable from just last year. Mike Smith came from the Ivy League with massive usage and questionable athleticism, and he translated. He did so by almost halving his usage from 34% to 19%. This cut out a lot of high degree-of-difficulty shots, which was great behind the line—Smith's 3P% jumped from 34% to 42%—but insufficient to keep his efficiency inside the line consistent. Smith went from a 47% two-point shooter to a 41% one and his TO rate shot up from 14 to 21. Even so the numbers added up to an effective stopgap. Michigan won't be asking much more from Jones, and at first blush the transition will be similar.

[After THE JUMP: Relax, don't do it, he's a seven foot unicorn [DOES IT ANYWAY AT MAXIMUM VOLUME] ]

A series looking at Michigan's 2021-22 basketball outlook. Previously: center, power forward, small forward.

ROSTER

Eli Brooks (Sr.+): Ultimate glue guy shot 45/40 last year and hit 91% of his FTs while providing secondary playmaking and taking opposition's best perimeter offensive option. COVID bonus year is massive for program.

Zeb Jackson (So.): Pops physically as a 6'5" guard with a lot of lift but limited playing time as HS senior and last year. Bit of a mystery man. Crucial year for him as he'll either establish himself a rotation piece or get wiped out by freshmen.

Kobe Bufkin (Fr.): Willowy 6'4" combo guard steadily rose in rankings over cycle, landing at #42 in the composite, despite wrist injury that cost him much of his senior year. Three-level scorer but might need Camp Sanderson to bust out.

Adrien Nunez (Sr.): Deep bench option unlikely to break through in year four.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

Uh… do I?

TVLand, the player [Campredon]

Brooks's return means this spot is going to be the most stable and predictable on the roster. Dickinson might look pretty different next year; we don't really know what to expect from Johns; there will be new starters at SF and PG. Eli Brooks is going to be Eli Brooks. I probably don't have to explain what the last two years of Brooks looks like to anyone who stops by this blog, but for the record:

• 36-40% three point shooting, with virtually all of those threes catch and shoot attempts.
• Pull-ups in the midrange that are reasonably good late clock options.
• Missed floaters and questionable finishing at the rim because of a lack of size and bounce.
• Plus defense that isn't quite lockdown against bigger guards who can get to the basket and finish over him. (EG: Duane Washington roasted him.)
• Ineffable sense that things work well with him and do not work well without him.

[After THE JUMP: splits splits splits splits]

A series looking at Michigan's 2021-22 basketball outlook. Previously: center, power forward.

ROSTER

Caleb Houstan (Fr.): top-ten recruit stands 6'8" and knocked down more than half his threes as a junior. That'll do. Well rounded game but not likely to generate many shots himself; can attack closeouts. Power mushroom Zak Irvin.

Isaiah Barnes (Fr.): Bouncy sniper seems underrated by recruiting sites since he's 6'6", shot 45% from three as a junior, and plays above the rim. No doubt some rough edges to smooth out, but should be ready for 10 MPG maybe?

Jace Howard (So.): Coach's son got some Kenpom time last year, caused mom to tweet explosively whenever he got a bucket. Recruiting rankings (#390 on composite) suggest that if he's going to emerge as a contributor it might not be this year. Has requisite size, though.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

Is the youth here a concern?

Probably not. It is going to be young. This spot is going to be the least experienced by some distance, and it doesn't seem like there are potential reinforcements from either the guards (maaaybe Zeb Jackson could chip in?) or the fours (no viable candidates to play down, IMO). But since the rest of the lineup goes senior, senior, senior, sophomore and both candidates for major playing time should thrive in roles where they absorb shots and don't have to create them, it'll be fine.

It might be a different story if Michigan hadn't picked up Devante' Jones and there were more questions about whether they'd be able to generate shots from the pick and roll, but between Jones, Collins, and Hunter Dickinson there should be enough folks with gravity on the court to suffer a corner gunner or two. Houstan in particular is a guy who cannot be given a sliver of space. Matt D:

…one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing.

That junior number on threes is an eyepopping 53%. While surrounded by Cade Cunningham and various other five-stars, yeah, but that's good in an empty gym. When Dickinson's gravity results in Michigan passing it around the horn, a Houstan triple is going to be one of the best shots in the Big Ten.

[After THE JUMP: Houstan's mature game, and a bouncy freshman sniper]