caleb houstan

On November 16, 2021, the University of Michigan gave a five-year extension to Men's Basketball Head Coach Juwan Howard, something your author called "a no brainer". At the time, Michigan was #4 in the country, 2-0 on the young season after knocking off Buffalo and Prairie View A&M. To that point, Howard's record as Michigan's head coach was 44-17, coming off a Big Ten regular title and an Elite Eight appearance. The team he was coaching was hyped, with sky high expectations following 2020-21's roaring success and adding a recruiting class that public scouting services loved. It all made sense. After all, Michigan Men's Basketball had established itself as a giant of the B1G over the preceding decade, winning three regular season titles and two conference tournament titles, making the Sweet 16 six times, the Elite Eight four times, and the Final Four twice. 

That night, after the extension was announced, Michigan played host to a so-so Seton Hall team that would make the NCAAs as an eight seed. They lost that game, the first sign that the 2021-22 team was perhaps not going to be what the expectations have conveyed. In hindsight, it was the beginning of a larger slide into despair for the Michigan program. Beginning with that game, the men's basketball team is 43-47 in their past 90 games, leading up to the present. They slipped into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed, then missed the tournament the following season, culminating in this year, when Michigan is 8-16 and has a chance to be the first Michigan team to win only single digit games in four decades.

How did it all collapse so quickly? Today we will look back through the journey and perhaps glean some overarching lessons on where and how it all went wrong: 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How it all went wrong]

A few hours after Moussa Diabate announced his departure from the Michigan Basketball program, fellow freshman Caleb Houstan followed him out the door: 

#BREAKING: @umichbball freshman forward Caleb Houstan is staying in the NBA Draft.https://t.co/9jGzzMzoYe

— Michigan Daily Sports (@theblockm) June 1, 2022

It had been trending this way for some time, so the decision should not come as a surprise to those following the dialogue. Houstan declined an invite to the Draft Combine in May, which indicated either certain return, or that he already had assurance from an NBA team that he was going to be drafted. All the reporting indicated the latter. Mock drafts have continued to show Houstan as a borderline first round prospect, with ESPN's Jonathon Givony pegging him at #25 in his most recent mock. 

Houstan averaged 10.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, while shooting 38.4% from the field and 35.5% from three as a freshman this past season. His rookie year with the Wolverines was enigmatic, especially for a 5* prospect who had lottery pick projections when the year began. Houstan had his moments, games where the threes went down and he seemed like an indispensable piece of the offense, including 19 points against Indiana in Assembly Hall and 21 against Illinois and Rutgers at home.

But there were also ugly performances where Houstan's athletic shortcomings and defensive struggles were magnified, while contributing next to nothing offensively. That includes a grand total of five points and five rebounds in a combined 60 minutes (!!!) against Tennessee and Villanova in the NCAA Tournament. There were nights where you saw the raw shooting promise, but too often those were immediately bookended by games that were the Tony Snell meme personified. 

Houstan takes good size with him to the NBA, 6'8" and 205 lbs., and if given space and time to shoot, he is an accurate three-point shooter. More importantly, he was once a 5* recruit who scouts saw many times during his time at Montverde Academy next to the likes of Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes. Once a 5*, always a 5*, in the minds of many scouts, and that, above all else, is carrying Houstan to the NBA Draft this month. 

Juwan Howard and Michigan now have some work to do on their 2022-23 roster. They have just 11 players on scholarship, two below the maximum 13. There is still a clear hole in the backcourt, and a need at wing or PF too. The transfer portal will likely be the source to solve plug these holes, and following that over the next couple weeks will be a likely hobby for many Michigan hoops fans. There is no content after the jump. 

We didn't have to wait until the official list after all:

Michigan freshman Caleb Houstan declared for the 2022 NBA draft prior to the deadline, a source told ESPN. Houstan is maintaining his NCAA eligibility while exploring the pre-draft process. pic.twitter.com/0fHOkIXmii

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 26, 2022

As expected, Houstan is going to get a draft evaluation. Unlike with Moussa Diabaté, who's likely to get some late 1st or early 2nd round interest based on his potential, the wind with Houstan feels like it's blowing towards a return. Houstan's freshman campaign saw him plummet down draft boards—he's currently 64th (one spot below Ron Harper) on ESPN's big board, but hanging on in the 40s to NBA Draftnet's matrix thanks to a few rankers who'll put him on the 1st round bubble. Many of those rankings also come with admonitions to return to school.

Houstan's defense developed far more than most fans realize over the course of the season—this was a subplot of the Sweet Sixteen run—but offensively Houstan still has holes in his game everywhere but shooting while set. Houstan may also be waiting to see what happens with Diabaté, especially if Moussa returns and the draft evaluations come back telling Houstan to bulk up to a four. Meanwhile, Michigan will have to wait with them to figure out their forward situation. Doubtless their pursuit of Terrence Shannon, who projects to play at least half his minutes at Houstan's old outpost.