After a lengthy holiday break (I'm including the pseudo-exhibition games against Stonehill in this), the Michigan Hockey team has been back at it the past two weekends, going up against the top two teams in the conference. The result were a pair of splits, both in regulation against Michigan State and then a regulation win followed by an OTL to Wisconsin. Michigan moved up a few slots in PairWise so it wasn't a total folly, but it felt like better results were possible still. Today we're going to break it all down and update the big picture too: 

These cats can score on anyone

Michigan has now seen the full array of B1G foes this season and it has become clear that Michigan is an elite offensive team, fullstop. They are #2 in college hockey in goals at a staggering 4.7 per game, but even if you delete the Stonehill series (which you should), they sit at 4.3, which would still be 2nd. They also got a Lindenwood bump, but every team has one cupcake series on their schedule, so I'm not going to drop that from the data too. While the team had offensive problems earlier in the year, particularly at 5v5, those seem to have dissipated since the Christmas break. The returns of Rutger McGroarty and Ethan Edwards to the lineup have sent a jolt through this team and the offense has been firing on all cylinders in January. 

Against Michigan State and Wisconsin, the Wolverines scored 7, 5, 5, and 5 in the four games. Granted, MSU has not been a spectacular defensive team by any stretch, but they do have a great goalie and Wisconsin very much has been a top notch defensive squad. The Badgers allow fewer goals per game than any other team in the country but the one team they cannot stop from scoring on them is Michigan. Wisconsin has allowed 4+ goals in a game just five times this season, three of those being games against Michigan (out of the four games they've played vs. the Wolverines). Michigan struggled to score against Notre Dame and St. Cloud with a heavily depleted roster in late November/early December, but those are the only teams they've struggled against offensively. 

These past two weeks have showcased all the ways that Michigan's offense can hurt you. They remain a fast team that can attack in transition and score off the rush: 

Pass ➡️ Snipe ➡️ Celly pic.twitter.com/b4MfDfEqls

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 27, 2024

They can make absurd plays once set in the offensive zone because they have players with game-breaking skill at the NCAA level: 

Frank extends Michigan’s lead to 4-1 pic.twitter.com/mSG84Srygi

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 27, 2024

And both of those goals show the elite finishing talent that they possess, paired with that speed and skill. It was nice to see Frank Nazar get a pair of goals against Wisconsin, that one above and then a nearly identical goal later. When Nazar was at the USNTDP, one of his biggest weapons was shooting between the hashmarks, like a mini-Brayden Point. It seemed like that skill would make him a major asset in the bumper role on the PP. I wrote the following in my introduction to him in the 2022-23 season preview: "Nazar has a shot that makes him a weapon from inside the hashes, where he does a lot of his work". That shooting skill hadn't really come to fruition much at Michigan before this weekend, but it's something still in his arsenal. I'd like to see them coach up his wingers to get the puck to him from the boards to the slot, and coach Nazar to keep hunting for open pockets of ice in high danger areas like that. 

The other major engine of Michigan's offense is their power play, which remains devastating. At 36.5%, Michigan's PP is firing at historic levels and they scored two PPGs in the Saturday game against Wisconsin off the same play: 

That didn’t take long, seven seconds into the power play and Michigan scores pic.twitter.com/AVwLYC0oRY

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 28, 2024

Michigan does a lot of things well on the PP. They have speedy forwards who can transition the puck up ice and gain the zone with possession. They have good passers, a great PP QB at the point in Seamus Casey, effective netfront presences like Dylan Duke, and shooting talent in bunches. Rutger McGroarty in particular deserves mention because he looks like a man possessed since returning from injury/WJC. 11 points in the four B1G games since the break + five in the two Stonehill games. Of those 16 points, seven have been on the PP, where he looks like a demon with his mix of size, speed, skill, and shooting talent. Rutger has been Michigan's best player in January after leading Team USA to gold in Sweden. His 1.79 PPG clip is tops in college hockey and even despite his injury he's top 10 in points nationally. 

I expect that Michigan's PP will probably cool off/come back to earth because it's very difficult to sustain a 36.5% clip. But it's going to remain a tremendous threat that will place pressure on opponents. What also makes me less concerned about PP regression is that Michigan has started to score more at 5v5. They scored ten 5v5 goals in the four games against MSU/Wisconsin, which comes out to 2.5 per game. If you can score 2.5 even strength goals per game (against two of the best teams in the country) and also have the NCAA's best PP, you are going to be in position to win a lot of games. Garrett Schifsky continues to deserve mention as the hero at 5v5, having scored eleven goals this season, ten of them at even strength (the other being a SHG!). Michigan is a top notch offensive team, which gives them a chance to beat anybody. Unfortunately, the other end of the ice gives them a chance to lose to a lot of teams too. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Blown Leads, Continued

Back in December I did my best to come up with reasons why Michigan Hockey has had such major problems closing out games and holding leads against opponents. Since then, they've had two games where they procured early leads and cruised, one titanic collapse, and one back-and-forth sort of game that saw them blow a short-lived, one-goal third period lead. Only the titanic collapse, the Saturday game against MSU, offers tons of fuel for the fire but it was more or less a microcosm of the problems with this Michigan team when it comes to slamming the door on teams.

Up 4-1 in the second, they gave up a goal when a pass handcuffed Jacob Truscott and took a bad bounce off the boards, springing talented Spartan Isaac Howard for a breakaway. Jacob Barczewski couldn't make the save. Then came a disastrous individual breakdown by Tyler Duke, coughing up the puck in his own end while facing minimal forecheck pressure and then doing nothing to take away the pass to an open Spartan who tapped in an easy goal. And now, with the ground shifting beneath them as a hungry MSU team started attacking relentlessly for the equalizer, Michigan is on their heels and hemmed in, outworked for a rebound goal on a long cycle possession. Three-goal lead blown in the span of five or so minutes. 

Those are pretty much all of the problems personified. The goaltending they get from Barczewski is solid, nothing spectacular most nights but adequate. That at times has not been enough to stop the avalanche from snowing the team under when their defense cracks. As I argued on the HockeyCast after the game, sometimes it's not about how many saves you make, but which ones and at which crucial moments. Michigan had dominated that MSU game through 30 minutes, exposing Barczewski to very few A+ chances while they rifled chance after chance on Trey Augustine, who made big saves to keep the Spartans in it. Suddenly Michigan cedes one quality look due to a combo of incompetence and bad luck and it ends up in the back of the net. They needed a save there and didn't get it. 

[Bill Rapai]

But of course Barczewski not bailing them out from their bad defense frequently enough is not reason to absolve the bad defense. This team is just not a good defensive team in general, with their best defense being their offense, their ability to possess the puck and control games by frequently being the attacker. Hard to give up goals if you don't let the other team touch the puck (unless you're the Pittsburgh Penguins)! But as a defensive team, defending while the other team is attacking, this Michigan team just isn't particularly good at that phase of the game. 

Marshall Warren and Tyler Duke, transfers from power conference programs, have come in below expectations as defenders and Jacob Truscott has seemingly regressed as well. The depth ain't great and Seamus Casey is never going to be a guy you want to lean on for gritty defensive minutes anyway. The Casey-Duke pair has really had a set of lowlights the past couple weeks in their own end of the ice. Michigan has made improvements on their PK taking away cross-seam passes, which is good to see, but I still think their in-zone defensive play is too passive for my liking considering the ups and downs they have obstructing passes at 5v5. Look at this tying goal vs. Wisconsin: 

First NCAA goal for Mehlenbacher (@mehlenbacher_37) and it's a B1G ONE!

🍎: Charlie Stramel & 💥Daniel Laatsch pic.twitter.com/6ykcbPeion

— Wisconsin Hockey (@BadgerMHockey) January 28, 2024

Michigan's got their entire team bunched up around the house area of the inner slot, yet they still allow a dangerous pass through to the doorstep (mostly on Duke to take that away). To make matters worse, while it gets deflected in by the front-side player, there's a second open Badger on the back post who feasibly could've scored the goal too, making a backdoor cut in behind a sleeping Casey. You've either gotta apply some pressure on the perimeter and risk individual breakdowns creating advantages down low, or take dangerous passes away if you're going to be passive. They did neither here and it ends up in the net. 

Marginal improvements can continue to be made in the team's defensive play and I expect that will happen. The wins over MSU and Wisconsin in the Friday games were impressive shows of third period dominance, where Michigan kept its foot on the gas, kept attacking, played with decent defensive structure, and finished a game off without any wobbles. There are glimmers of progress, but they are probably never going to be good enough to feel comfortable shutting games down in the third period with consistency. That's okay, the formula it is what it is, but this team is going to have to keep scoring in third periods to protect leads regularly. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Big Picture Update and the Road Ahead 

Team	GP	Points	Pt%	Conf. Record	GD
Michigan St.	16	37	.771	11-2-1-2	+25
Wisconsin	14	32	.762	10-3-1-0	+44
Minnesota	16	26	.542	7-5-1-3	+27
Notre Dame	16	24	.500	7-7-1-1	+10
Michigan	14	19	.452	5-6-1-2	+40
Penn St.	16	17	.354	4-9-2-1	-3
Ohio St.	16	7	.146	1-13-2-0	-20

The B1G picture has come clearer into focus, still a two-horse race between MSU and Wisconsin that will likely be settled in early March when the Spartans end the regular season in Madison. MSU stays atop the conference based on points% by a smidge after pulling out two improbable comeback wins over Michigan and Minnesota the last two weekends, while Wisconsin is right on their heels. As we've seen in January, Michigan is absolutely capable of playing very even games with these two teams and you can argue that across the 360 minutes of hockey they've played against Wisc/MSU this season, Michigan was the better team for 80% of those minutes. The consistency continues to evade them, however, and meltdown moments are far too common to be considered as good of teams as those two. 

What Michigan will be playing for, besides the NCAA Tournament bubble (more on that momentarily), is third place in the B1G, which definitely would have its benefits. PSU and OSU seem to be a cut below the MINN/ND/M tier 3-5, so getting to the #3 seed and drawing Penn State would be ideal. I don't think second round positioning matters all that much, but there's the fact that if Michigan were to stay #5, where they are now, they would be out on the road in the first round. Jumping up to #3 or #4 gives you home ice in round one at least. Certainly things to play for there. 

[Bill Rapai]

As for the NCAA Tournament picture, Michigan is up to #12 in the PairWise, into the tournament picture but still very much in the bubble zone with weeks still to go. Picking up regulation wins over MSU and Wisconsin was big, but blowing those other two games was a missed opportunity to get off the bubble. Especially because the autobid situation is precarious, as Atlantic Hockey will get its one like usual, but with Minnesota State being a husk of a team, the CCHA is now a weak autobid league too (no teams in the top 16). Oh, and the ECAC has only Quinnipiac and Cornell (barely) in the top 16, so it doesn't take many upsets for them to land an autobid team in the tourney too. Realistically you need to be in the top 12 this year to feel good about an at-large spot. 

Michigan is juuuuust inside the top 12 for now but there is a long way to go. First order of business is not losing games to bad teams, which starts with this weekend's series against Ohio State in Columbus. The Buckeyes' roster, drained by the portal and NHL declarations, has resulted in them icing a terrible hockey team. They've won just one B1G in regulation (3-2 over ND) and two in OT, one of which was to Michigan. Wisconsin and MSU both mostly beat the pulp out of the Bucks this season and Michigan did exactly that in one of their two meetings. Unfortunately, they lost the other one 2-1 in OT. That cannot happen this time, even if Michigan has had their struggles sweeping teams. The Wolverines have to find a way to get six points, two regulation wins, this weekend. For both the B1G standings and PairWise, because you do not want to take a fat L against #32 in the rankings, the worst team you'll see the rest of this season. It's the stretch run of the season and the games really do matter now.