hockey weekly

Only three weeks ago, Michigan Hockey's NCAA Tournament case was in trouble. Their College Hockey News-calculated probability of making the big dance was down to just over 1/3 and the prospect of the season being deemed an abject failure loomed. In the span of just those three weeks, some six hockey games, Michigan has gone from fading on the bubble to a near-certain tournament team. After this past weekend's sweep of Notre Dame in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan's probability is up to 99.6%.

Since the probability of Michigan missing the NCAAs is now akin to the probability that Donald Trump wins Massachusetts or Joe Biden wins Wyoming in November, we can speak in certain terms: Michigan is going to make the NCAA Hockey Tournament. This week we get to talk about how the Wolverines got there by delivering another clutch two victories with their backs against the wall. After that we'll take another look at the big picture and then pivot to a Minnesota preview. 

HockeyBullets on Notre Dame #2 

- Oh Notre Dame, how far have you fallen. One of my biggest takeaways from the weekend, and really the full season of seeing Notre Dame, is how much this program has declined in the late Jeff Jackson years. I don't think it's the offense necessarily, even with losing Rutger McGroarty and Logan Cooley type commits to other schools. Notre Dame didn't have those kinds of players during some of their glory years anyway. If you pull up their stat page from the 2017-18 team that was one win from taking home the national title, that team didn't have top notch scorers or guys who were elite NHL talents. Jake Evans has gone on to be a decent fourth liner in Montreal and that's it. 

What has changed is the manner in which Notre Dame defends and suppresses chances. The Irish at their best ground games down and suffocated opponents like no one's business, the sort of team where it was very hard to come back against. You can go back and find some of my early Hockey Weeklys from 2020 or 2021 where I was talking extensively about how important it was to score first on ND. Allowing the Irish to get a lead and set the tone and make you play on their terms was asking for disaster. 

But this weekend Michigan was able to rally from deficits in the second period in both games and it never was all that difficult. Notre Dame's leads in those two games lasted maybe 20 minutes combined, as the Wolverines were quickly able to get even and then take control back. In all six games Michigan has played against Notre Dame this season, I've never felt that same terror as I used to about falling behind the Irish or the need to score first. Ryan Bischel is a high level college goalie, but the team in front of him doesn't look like it used to. A couple of the goals Michigan scored were really quite startling. Look at this one: 

[Click the JUMP to see it]

Michigan Hockey went to Minneapolis this weekend knowing they needed at least one victory to stay in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament. After being tied following the first period on Friday, the Wolverines put together a lackluster and uninspiring latter two periods and were felled by the Gophers 6-2, losing their goalie in the process. On the heels of that, Saturday needed to be an all-hands-on-deck, emphatic performance. For two periods it was, but then came another third period collapse, albeit this one being nearly all goaltending. Michigan gave up five goals in the third but still made it to OT, where Seamus Casey won it for Michigan. Not ideal, but they got a lot of help elsewhere in college hockey and are still alive for the NCAA Tournament. For right now, in this seesaw season of adversity, there are worse places to be. 

HockeyBullets from Minnesota 

- About Friday night. Friday's game was a bit of an odd one, Michigan getting on the board first before a couple of iffy goals gave Minnesota the lead. A really nice play by Rutger McGroarty helped keep the puck in and set up a Garrett Schifsky equalizer to make the score tied just before the period break. It felt like Michigan didn't play great in that first period, but both teams were sloppy and the score was tied. It was okay. The first seven or so minutes of the second period were rather tepid, not a ton going on, then Michigan went on the PK and: 

Corner Pocket 🎱 pic.twitter.com/0bNZnkcaX9

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 2, 2024

We would see a similar one to this on Saturday, but this goal cannot go in. It really seemed to take the wind out of Michigan's sails and for some reason, they lost their legs in the second half of the game once they were again trailing Minnesota. Michigan looked small and slow against the Gophers, who had more jump and urgency, disappointing for a Michigan team that was fighting for its life while Minnesota wasn't. They were getting outworked in the corners, outskated, and kept taking penalties, while questionable goaltending continued to harm the scoreboard. Barczewski had a down game and then got run into on an unintentional (possibly friendly fire) collision with a Gopher. He did not return for the third period (and then missed Saturday's game) but Michigan trailed by 5-2 by that time.

Michigan never really made a push and they lost 6-2. It was a bad effort but thankfully they responded with a marvelous first period on Saturday. Before we get to the second game, I want to note that Michigan allowed three power play goals just one week after I praised the Michigan penalty kill. Cause for alarm? I don't really think so. Part of it was some degree of mean reversion, as Michigan wasn't going to continue killing nearly every penalty the rest of the season. Related: a lot of it puck luck and bad goaltending. That goal I showed was one of the three PPGs against. That's entirely on Barczewski. The second goal involved a monster bounce off the end boards, while the third was a puck battle/scrum that eventually went in. *shrug* The hallmarks of Michigan's earlier poor PK from the first half of the season, the unrestricted puck movement, the inability to suppress A+ chances, none of that happened here so I don't think we need to sound the alarms.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More talking points]

At long last, Michigan Hockey won a regular season game at Yost against Notre Dame. And then the next night, they won a second. The first home sweep of Notre Dame at Yost since the 2017-18 season, the first win of any kind in the regular season at home against Notre Dame since November 9, 2018(!!). Two huge regulation wins that have bumped Michigan Hockey's probability of making the NCAA Tournament from 34% to 65% and put them temporarily back on the right side of the bubble. A long way to go with one more week of the regular season + the conference tournament pending, but this was a step in the right direction. Let's break it all down today: 

A Few Thoughts From The Weekend  

A banner night for Dylan Duke. Friday night was the Dylan Duke show, as the junior scored the first goal for Michigan, a rather soft one for Ryan Bischel right off a faceoff, and then got the second later in the opening period on a masterful short-handed goal: 

Dylan Duke short-handed! pic.twitter.com/Kt74vxKGho

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 24, 2024

Those were Duke's only goals of the game– and only points of the weekend for that matter– but they were still two huge ones because they set the tone. This was a massive series for Michigan, four games left in the regular season or as I put it last week, running out of time. The Maize & Blue needed a big weekend against a team and in a building they can never, ever win in. They needed two regulation wins and while Notre Dame has fallen quite a bit from the grinding defensive team that used to choke the life out of games, they are still a team with an elite goaltender that generally has good in-zone defensive fundamentals. You want to get leads on the Irish, if for no other reason than their offensive limitations make it harder for them in particular to rally. 

Dylan Duke gave Michigan that lead and he got a decent sized one for them right away. When he put that second goal in there was still tons of hockey to be played, but again, it set the tone. Michigan was in command of that Friday game very early because of Duke and they were able to play confidently from there on out. Michigan doesn't have an underclass superstar to lean on like an Adam Fantilli last season. They need veteran players to step up when your season is on the line and Duke's first period could end up being a turning point of the season if Michigan finds a way into the tournament and we ought to commend him for that. The first goal wasn't anything special, lucky break but it was what I also wrote about last week in terms of a simplified offensive approach, putting pucks on net. Sometimes you get rewarded and sometimes, like in this case, it really matters. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More thoughts, NCAA picture, and Minnesota]