Pretty awesome. Whitelaw is a burner who plays a hard nosed style despite his small size. This looks to be a blazing fast team with more offensive depth than 23-24. Fingers crossed that Casey comes back to quarterback the D corps...
My only concern is that the team now has a bunch of right handed players and only two natural left wings (Hallum and Estapa, who usually is playing center). I wonder who they will put on left over the season? Some possibilities below (note that the R hand and L hand are in parentheses), though who knows who will be on the final roster and who will be on which line:
Eernisse (R - normally plays RW) - Michael Hage (R) - McGroarty (L)
Hallum (L)- Hughes (R) - Moldenhauer (R)
Matvei Gridin (L - normally plays RW)- Schifsky (R) - Will Whitelaw (R)
Right out the gate, Michigan was buzzing and I thought:
"wow, we can really win this."
Then the Casey pinch, Perrault chips it out, and the 2 on 1 goal with Leonard and Smith happened:
"oh, this is how this is going to go."
Michigan really controlled the game, kept themselves in it, and had a chance even though BC collapsed the middled and limited on man rushes. Then the phantom Duke penalty... Then the oh boy bounce of the puck of of both Edwards' skates and five hole on Barzo. Then 40ish seconds later a McGroarty from the o-zone blue line shooting directly into the most dangerous player in College Hockey (Gauthier) that gifts them a 2 on 1 that Gauthier buries. After that short sequence Michigan played deflated:
"that's about it. Nice turnaround to our season. Only wish the hockey gods could bless us with some ref and puck luck one of these post seasons."
Now, it'll be interesting who goes pro, who stays, and who hops over from the portal. Next year's class looks stunning too.
It was a good game and BU did it with a short roster. Thanks Hutson, Celebrini, and company. Hopefully, Northeastern can repeat BU's feat on Saturday and down those Friars.
Sadly, they played this whole game the way they played third periods for most of the season: choking when it matters the most. This team - from lack of big time saves, to costly DZTOs, to lack of timely goal scoring, is the opposite of clutch. “Hoping” for a better performance tomorrow.
Thanks Peter! I'm a weekend fan of U-Mass Lowell, Merrimack, RPI, Union, NoDak, Minnesota-Duluth, and Denver. Merrimack played well against Providence last night, but are plagued with injuries (two top scorers out as well as a starting defenseman)...
Dear hockey fans at MSU, welcome to being a college hockey fan. To see all of the U-M games, I have at least BTN (courtesy of Hulu), BTN+ (minus), Peacock (for Notre Dame Games), and then the random monthly pass (NCHC anyone) for the away non-con games.
As a side note, I think the Spartan announcers are pretty good on BTN+. They are better than Michigan's, and way better than OSU (unwatchable camera angles and horrific announcers). OSU announcers and kept calling McGroarty "LaPointe" (yes, 22 and 2 are confusing), and called TJ Hughes "Luke Hughes" a few times. PSU is not far behind - kept calling Barczewski "Barchewski"
Thank you!! Exactly why this season has been so frustrating. My wife and I started joking, "Oh no, we have a 3 goal lead. We're in trouble." Seeing this graph verifies how I felt with the eye test.
During the PSU series, B1G+ announcers also shared that our goal differential in the first period and second period were somewhere around 25 each, while we were around -6 in the third period (exact numbers escape me but the point is there).
If we didn't blow leads in just 2 or so top games, we'd be safely under the bubble. That aside, as lhglrkwg notes, we should be in "#1 BC, #3 NoDak, and #5 Denver" company if we didn't blow leads. Self-destruction at key moments has been killer.
Drink up and I hope we bop those gophers for two Ws this weekend.
Both teams played extremely well tonight. Probably the highest intensity game at the Yost this year. Even Adam Fantilli made a cameo appearance and played a little bit of the cow bell with the Yost. Though Michigan played one of their more solid all around performances and the eye-test tells me they edged Michigan State out, as you say, Augustine was magnificent. There were many grade As (including the Duke shortie chance) but he kept them in it and sealed the lead. Makes me wonder - where would Michigan be if we had a goalie that came up big when needed most and perhaps steals a game or two, instead of letting most of the close games go…?
Let’s home for a similar team performance and a better goalie performance tomorrow.
Nice cast. FYI that I was watching a Bruins game a few weeks ago and was surprised to see the TOSU alum Georgii Merkulov on the ice. Apparently no points yet but he was there.
Excellent write up and analysis of the successes (offensive powerhouse) and woes (consistently blowing leads, dominating 80% of games but complete collapses the other 20%, and can't rely on goaltending to bail them out).
Focus guys and sweep some weekends to get us to 12 seed (or below) and a home Big 10 playoff game. Let's start by sweeping those nuts down south.
Top performance from the D in the house tonight, no terrible DZTOs, good goal tending, and our forwards finishing. I’m happy to see Nazar bury a few and also like seeing Draper progress this year. He seemed so out of place and IMO a constant liability previous seasons, but he is really coming to his own and contributing with solid hustle. You are spot on - Casey is worth the price of admission. Last year, we had two players that could Superman us through a game (Luke Hughes and Adam Fantilli). I feel like Casey is that game changer this year, but he does it with dazzle rather than a bang. Good stuff.
More good news. Though Rut did not play during the prelim game against Sweden today, he seems to be set to go for the first World Junior game against Norway. And, he was named Captain of the team. Here are a few good articles about this story that really highlight McGroarty as a competitor:
The biggest win of the season - not only because of the timing but because of the 60 minute effort when we essentially played 3 lines again (for the 5th game?). IMO, this was Nazar, Lapointe, and Draper’s best games from a defensive / effort perspective. IF we can get Estapa and McGroarty back up front and Edwards finally back for defense in our second half of the season, perhaps we can ride the bubble and make the tourney. We have yet to play MSU (two at Yost, one at Little Caesars, and one at Munn) and have a home series against Wisconsin, so there are Pairwise points to be had. this is a dangerous team - just disappointingly inconsistent in the third period. If we can hold a lead, play to potential, we may be surprised. It’s college hockey, anything can happen and I hope we pull a strong second half like we have in previous years.
Good cast Alex and David! The blowing the lead thing is mentally draining and I think you’re right - if they won their games where they had a 2 goal lead, they’d be near the top of the country… Frustrating. Another thing, McGroarty out really highlights his importance. With him out, Truscott is on the right circle in PP1… How is that acceptable? I think that is a real reason why the PP has dropped from dynamic to so-so. It will be interesting if they have another PP1 set-up against Notre Dame. I’d like to see Nazar getting on PP1 somehow
Thanks Peter! It was an electrifying game and Michigan was buzzing controlling most play. I have to say, Nazar is really coming through. They just need more biscuits in Gopher baskets and less in their own. As you put it, they need more second chances with bodies in the house. Again, a game where Michigan controlled, led, and lost even though they were the better team for most of the night.
Good news on the recruiting front. Matvei Gridin from the UHSL Muskegon Lumberjacks committed to Michigan this week! The 17 year old Gridin is a 2024 draft eligible left-shot forward who is currently tearing up the UHSL. He’s second in scoring with 11 goals, 9 assists, and even 26 PIMs in 14 games played. Here’s the story: https://www.therinklive.com/junior-and-prospects/ushl/ushl-notebook-michigan-lands-gridin-sioux-citys-hupka-honors-adam-johnson-and-fargo-keeps-rolling-on-road
They held play all night except poor PK, sub par goaltending on our side, and stellar tending on the Badger side. They only game we really lost so far this season in terms of play is the opening Providence game. We just blew leads against UMass, Ohio, and now Wisco. I hope this is not a trend and we can learn to hold leads and win won goal games.
Nice analysis on a game that felt more like team Canada clobbering the lowest seed at the WJC. I was worried when Duke left the ice again. Good to see he is on the ice this week. Fingers crossed it stays that way for Wisco: https://twitter.com/umichhockey/status/1719529483143622691?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I also hope that Nazar shows up in Wisconsin. Despite my pre-season thinking he'd be our #1 center at this point and being a top player, he's been one of our least effective forwards (thinking about not capitalizing on his many many chances) and sports a -5
It would be great to hear your thoughts on Nazar in future segments.
Pretty nice write up! As someone who enjoys following college hockey recruiting (Hagens to BC still stings), I am thankful for these articles.
One question, I thought Charlie Cerrato (former NTDP and now on Youngstown in the USHL) was a Michigan commit. Did this change? I saw him play earlier this year and it seems like his game has grown since he was on the NTDP and is promising.
The team was buzzing. I was surprised to see T. Duke, and he looked like Michigan’s best defenseman today. All over the ice, in the middle of scuffles, and playing smart with the puck. Fine game.
Loved seeing all lines engaged. The first few games, the Draper, Estapa, Lapointe (throw in Pletzke for a few shifts) was a liability. They looked good tonight getting pucks in deep and getting the biscuit in the basket. Good signs!
Nice to see Moldenhauer get on the board.
The refs need glasses. Mouldenhaur got boarded in the second, late hit on T. Duke after an icing whistle, trip Casey in the third. Ooof. But special teams paid off!
Awesome win for Michigan. This kid is Legit and IMO the best forward on the US NTDP 18's after Eiserman and Hagens. Now a good forward class coming in - Michael Hage, Kristian Epperson, Aidan Park, and now Humphrey's. Mikey Burchill and Charlie Cerrato (who is really finding his stride on the Youngstown Phantoms after being a dud with NTDP last year) appear to still be coming next year too.
As a hockey fan (seen all games going a bunch of years back) and not a football fan (never seen a game - ever), I'm fine with whatever times. But please don't take away October hockey... I so look forward to October as the beginning of the only sport I care about.
I do find it unfortunate that the "Hockeycast" team regularly talks about not seeing hockey games because of competing sports viewing opportunities, such as football games. Or mention that they didn't see the hockey game, but are still commenting on the few bits they saw in replay.
That said, I'm glad that there is a focus on hockey, but with the presenters prioritized the sport they represent...
Love the pod. I'm super excited to see what Moldenhauer, Schifsky, and Eernisse can do.
Totally agree with Nazar - tops in the B1G. I hope his summer showcase performance translates (note: two years ago, Bordeleau was the best player at the Showcase and had a good but not stellar sophomore year at Michigan). Snuggerud may fall flat this year as the former third piece on the Knies and Cooley line. How will he perform with with Moore instead? I think good but not great. Like McGroarty, I feel he is a finisher and not a driver. Nazar drives a line.
Excited with Truscott as Captain. He reminds me of when Joseph Cecconi was paired with Quinn Hughes.
How was Paul Coffey missed as an inspirational #77?
If Moldenhauer is second in scoring, I hope it's based on an exceptionally overachieving year and not at the expense of our expected big 3's production: Nazar, McGroarty, Brindley (possibly D. Duke too, capable of getting 20 IMO based on net-front prowess if on PP1). Even Samoskevich had only 10 goals his freshman year.
Totally dig Warren. I think he will be number 2 over Truscott points-wise, though I think T. Duke has latent upside and a tenaciousness that will make him a fan-favorite workhorse.
Chase Pletzke - what to say? I sure hope the dude meets your prediction of exceeding the last two years of production despite playing a bunch.
Lines will be interesting - especially with more centers than last year (Nazar, Brindley, Hughes, Schifsky, Rowe, and even Estapa, McGroarty, and Moldenhauer if needed). Will Narauto load the top 6 (Nazar, Mcgroarty, Brindley, Hughes, D. Duke and Moldenhauer)? Or will he run lines that are more balanced as we saw at times during the Simon Fraser exhibition ? I recall combinations of the following at certain times (no particular order what is line 1 or 3) with each a speedster or two, a net front player / board battler, and a shooter.
Hallum - Nazar - Eernisse
McGroarty - Brindley - Schifsky
D. Duke - T.J.Hughes - Moldenhauer
Estapa / Rowe / Lapointe / Draper
This is going to be the year of the B1G (and BU and BC) and parity has never been better. Michigan first in B1G - not surprising. Michigan 4th in B1G - not surprising. Michigan out of the tournament, super surprising.
Michigan State's incoming class, portal transfers, and coaching is tantalizing and will make those games must see action. I'm glad we have technically a bonus home game (2 at Yost, 1 at Munn, 1 at L.Caesars).
I hope a B1G team wins the national championship to end the drought. With future talent skipping to mostly Boston teams (Celebrini, Perrault, Smith, Leonard this year; Eiserman and Hagens next year), it would be good to draw some of that back. Naturally, I hope this is Michigan's year and feel good about it with a veteran D corps.
Estapa note: the Children should start the "Free Es-Sta-Pa" chant near near the End of his penalty time when he is ready to return to the ice rather than at the beginning ... Curious what others think.
I really like the addition of Duke and Warren and, with them, feel good about our team. With the loss of Keranan, Pehrson, and Hughes, the additions of Duke and Warren, and the maturation of our D corps with no Freshmen, I feel that this year's quad will be deeper and more experienced. Of course we will miss the hero factor that Hughes can create at any moment.
It's going to be interesting how the coaching staff and the team change from last year and hopefully we will see less turnovers, less odd man rushes, and less high danger plays that make our goalies move laterally. I hope to see a better PK and less goals in our end in general.
Great point about players developing at different rates.
Take Ty Smilanic and Matty Beniers. They were on the same NTDP under 17 team, where Smilanic was second in team scoring with 38 points in 54 games while Beniers was sixth in scoring with 23 points in 42 games. During the NDTP U18 team, Smilanic's growth and production dipped to 8th on the team with 22 points in 34 games while Beniers' production skyrocketed to being second on the team with 41 points in 44 games. As we now know, Beniers was a star at Michigan and is a star for the Kraken - even winning the Calder. While Smilanic transferred to Wisconsin where he put up an anemic 1 goal and 1 assist in 14 games...
So yeah, players sure develop at different rates! I'm excited to see how Eernisse is deployed by Naurato.
I received an email recently stating that season tickets were all sold out. They shared that ticket packs and single-game tickets will both go on sale in the month of September and instructed folks to Sign up for ticket information to be notified when tickets go on sale. Here it is:
Yeah, St. Cloud is really the only apparent top ten non-con team of the bunch. Very different than last year's Harvard, BU, and Western lineup and the previous year's Minnesota State and Minnesota Duluth (at the Icebreaker tourney), Western, and UMass (when they were ranked #10, though a overrated at the time) lineup.
I hope UMass will improve this year, though not against us - lol! Surprisingly, Scott Morrow is returning and is quite the dynamic defensemen and UMass is bringing in a class of 3 drafted players (Suniev 3rd round, Vantassell 7th round, O'Neill 5th round). Apparently, they brought in a bunch of grad transfers too. Though my guess is that they are on the outside looking into the tournament, who knows how this will shake out for the Minutemen: https://umassathletics.com/news/2023/7/31/vanroboys-added-to-massachusetts-hockey-roster-as-graduate-transfer
I'm happy to see this. Since Quinn Hughes, we have been spoiled with elite puck moving defensemen: York (kind of), Power, Luke Hughes, Seamus Casey. This may keep the tradition going and the Michigan style is so dependent on elite puck moving D.
When seeing him play last year, I was taken by his solid positioning and tenacious board battles. My favorable "eye" test of Duke shows in your data. Thank you for the excellent write up. Michigan is fortunate to have the other Duke for a few years.
Also, I see Casey as a lock for the first pairing given his exit and entry prowess, ability to walk the line and shimmy to change the angle for a pass or shot on net, and acceptable defensive zone play. I can honestly see Duke, Warren, or Truscott pairing with Casey to allow him to be creative. I would not be surprised if Duke was on the top line with Casey over the course of the year. He's a sophomore and has solid upside. We kinda know Warren and Truscott's ceiling.
I think Edwards may fall to the third pairing with the alternating 6th defenseman (most likely Holtz, but I can see Druskinis and Fantilli getting some play).
Overall, I'm much happier with the defensive corps this year versus last even though I miss Hughes' game changing ability (and don't miss his mindless moments gifting teams OMRs). Hughes gone also means more minutes for all D, since he ate up an enormous about of minutes.
Great stuff! Do you know if Warren was regularly utilized or excels playing as the right D? Michigan only has two right shot D (Casey, Holtz) that will likely slot in the top 6, so excelling while playing on his offside would be an asset. With this in mind, how do you see the pairings shaping up?
I'm so glad I don't have to look at this whiney and dirty player's face again in a Gopher uniform. His hit on Ciccolini was cheap, cheap, cheap: https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/1593708017773576193?lang=en
It would have been cool to have him, but it's not surprising. Based on previous articles (here is one: https://gopresstimes.com/2022/12/27/levshunov-speaking-hockey-language-well-in-gb/), Arty did not speak English before going to Green Bay. Given his two years there, I would have been surprised if he could meet UM English proficiency standards for international students.
Besides, it's probably the right move for the kid. He'd be a second pairing defenseman and fighting for time on the second power play at UM. He'll be top pairing and on the PP1 unit at MSU.
Regardless, I'm happy he is at MSU. Tightening the talent gap between MSU and UM will increase competitiveness and make the games more interesting. Honestly, with Nightingale bringing in other transfers (notably former NTDP and first rounder Isaac Howard and the gritty and skilled Red Savage) and flipping the top prospect net minder Trey Augustine from Michigan, I now see Minnesota, Michigan, and MSU contending for the B1G.
I hope Columbus gets Fantilli. I’d love to see Fantilli with Johnson and Blanks for years (though seeing Fantilli go to Chicago and age with Nazar would be sweet too).
A bit of bid thievery indeed. That said, Colgate have not been cupcakes going 6 / 4 against other tourney teams this year, so Michigan needs to bring the intensity of their recent games.
Colgate vs. Merrimack: 0 / 5 Loss
Colgate vs. Merrimack: 5 / 3 Win
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 2 / 3 Loss
Colgate vs. Harvard: 6 / 4 Win
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 3 / 2 Win
Colgate vs. Harvard: 4 / 5 Loss (OT)
Colgate vs. Cornell: 2 / 3 Loss
Colgate vs. Cornell: 4 / 4 T/SWW
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 2 / 1 Win/ OT (ecac tourney)
It was very strange. At 9am I was not able to select seats and all the sections were greyed out as if there were not tickets, but when I used the "purchase by price" function, I was able to snag 2 tix by 9:02am. I guess I got lucky.
As a season ticket holder, I wish there was a function in the MGoBlue ticketing system that allows us to simply retain our usual seats and automatically get charged.
Because Bob confided that he loves the Children's true-to-life artistic ability. Seriously, listing good coaches was to make a point and not suggesting they are looking for jobs...
That's exactly why I liked the GLI as well. Even if the games were a loss and hurt our pairwise, I think in the end the extra game helped the team gain momentum in the second half.
What an awful game. Not to make excuses, but from the Druskinis hit onwards, the team played timid as if they were pulling back from physicality in fear of penalties. And the reffing reinforced this. The Duke “embellishment”? I thought that would be a 5 minute major…
Add that to a lack of energy, giving up way to many odd man rushes, getting virtually no odd man rushes, poor goal tending, and even an own goal at the end (though it was over anyways). A really demoralizing game. I hope this one falls in the “We can do better” category and motivates the team.
Excellent cast! I was admittedly one of those cringing when Harbaugh was directing players onto the ice fearing a delay of game penalty - which honestly should have been given. To his credit, Ted Donato did not seem to be encouraging the refs to assess a DoG penalty. Ted seems to be a class act.
The comment about what does 3 assists make reminded my of grade school. In USA youth hockey (at least back in the '90s), 3 assists was a "Playmaker" and earns youngsters a patch for their hockey club team jacket! Of course the kids with the "Hat Trick" patches were cooler...
A happy surprise indeed! And with the Big10 success in non-conference games and Michigan's excellent non-conference showing, this may bode well for pairwise later on if we can claim a 1 or 2 spot in the Big10.
Upsets around college hockey abound so far (heck, Wisconsin sweeping Minnesota Duluth??? ASU beating NODAK???), which has been good for Michigan thus far. But I think that is a demonstrative reminder that any team can win any game in college hockey. I think Penn State is super overrated, but hey, they can likely pull wins against any team at any time (like any hockey team). A good reminder for Michigan to remain focused and continue to clean up their game. It's going to be a fun year for certain.
As noted earlier, Penn State's record is good but that means nothing since their competition is the bottom of the barrel: Canisius (.222 winning percent), Mercyhurst (.150 winning percent), St. Thomas (.292 winning percent), and Wisco (.250 winning percent). Michigan is their first team with a winning percentage Penn State will play. Maybe they are good, but this series will decide versus their perfect record.
I very much agree. Talent is undeniable with finishers who are not afraid to get dirty in the high danger areas to score. But, defensive zone coverage and turnovers are an early major problem 0 both at even strength and on the penalty kill. Clean that up and we have a contender!
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Pretty awesome. Whitelaw is a burner who plays a hard nosed style despite his small size. This looks to be a blazing fast team with more offensive depth than 23-24. Fingers crossed that Casey comes back to quarterback the D corps...
My only concern is that the team now has a bunch of right handed players and only two natural left wings (Hallum and Estapa, who usually is playing center). I wonder who they will put on left over the season? Some possibilities below (note that the R hand and L hand are in parentheses), though who knows who will be on the final roster and who will be on which line:
Eernisse (R - normally plays RW) - Michael Hage (R) - McGroarty (L)
Hallum (L) - Hughes (R) - Moldenhauer (R)
Matvei Gridin (L - normally plays RW) - Schifsky (R) - Will Whitelaw (R)
Estapa (L) - Christian Humphreys (R) - Draper (R)
Reserves: Mikey Burchill (R), Lapointe (R), Rowe (L)
Right out the gate, Michigan was buzzing and I thought:
"wow, we can really win this."
Then the Casey pinch, Perrault chips it out, and the 2 on 1 goal with Leonard and Smith happened:
"oh, this is how this is going to go."
Michigan really controlled the game, kept themselves in it, and had a chance even though BC collapsed the middled and limited on man rushes. Then the phantom Duke penalty... Then the oh boy bounce of the puck of of both Edwards' skates and five hole on Barzo. Then 40ish seconds later a McGroarty from the o-zone blue line shooting directly into the most dangerous player in College Hockey (Gauthier) that gifts them a 2 on 1 that Gauthier buries. After that short sequence Michigan played deflated:
"that's about it. Nice turnaround to our season. Only wish the hockey gods could bless us with some ref and puck luck one of these post seasons."
Now, it'll be interesting who goes pro, who stays, and who hops over from the portal. Next year's class looks stunning too.
Thank you for affirming the eye test: Warren has been awesome since February. I love this kind of statistical analysis.
Do you have any plans to compare third period play over the last 12 games versus the first 28?
It was a good game and BU did it with a short roster. Thanks Hutson, Celebrini, and company. Hopefully, Northeastern can repeat BU's feat on Saturday and down those Friars.
Sadly, they played this whole game the way they played third periods for most of the season: choking when it matters the most. This team - from lack of big time saves, to costly DZTOs, to lack of timely goal scoring, is the opposite of clutch. “Hoping” for a better performance tomorrow.
Or we will make the tourney, blow out all teams, and then blow a 3-1 lead in the third period of the championship game.
Thanks Peter! I'm a weekend fan of U-Mass Lowell, Merrimack, RPI, Union, NoDak, Minnesota-Duluth, and Denver. Merrimack played well against Providence last night, but are plagued with injuries (two top scorers out as well as a starting defenseman)...
Dear hockey fans at MSU, welcome to being a college hockey fan. To see all of the U-M games, I have at least BTN (courtesy of Hulu), BTN+ (minus), Peacock (for Notre Dame Games), and then the random monthly pass (NCHC anyone) for the away non-con games.
As a side note, I think the Spartan announcers are pretty good on BTN+. They are better than Michigan's, and way better than OSU (unwatchable camera angles and horrific announcers). OSU announcers and kept calling McGroarty "LaPointe" (yes, 22 and 2 are confusing), and called TJ Hughes "Luke Hughes" a few times. PSU is not far behind - kept calling Barczewski "Barchewski"
Anyway, funny stuff from Graham Couch.
Thank you!! Exactly why this season has been so frustrating. My wife and I started joking, "Oh no, we have a 3 goal lead. We're in trouble." Seeing this graph verifies how I felt with the eye test.
During the PSU series, B1G+ announcers also shared that our goal differential in the first period and second period were somewhere around 25 each, while we were around -6 in the third period (exact numbers escape me but the point is there).
If we didn't blow leads in just 2 or so top games, we'd be safely under the bubble. That aside, as lhglrkwg notes, we should be in "#1 BC, #3 NoDak, and #5 Denver" company if we didn't blow leads. Self-destruction at key moments has been killer.
Drink up and I hope we bop those gophers for two Ws this weekend.
Both teams played extremely well tonight. Probably the highest intensity game at the Yost this year. Even Adam Fantilli made a cameo appearance and played a little bit of the cow bell with the Yost. Though Michigan played one of their more solid all around performances and the eye-test tells me they edged Michigan State out, as you say, Augustine was magnificent. There were many grade As (including the Duke shortie chance) but he kept them in it and sealed the lead. Makes me wonder - where would Michigan be if we had a goalie that came up big when needed most and perhaps steals a game or two, instead of letting most of the close games go…?
Let’s home for a similar team performance and a better goalie performance tomorrow.
Nice cast. FYI that I was watching a Bruins game a few weeks ago and was surprised to see the TOSU alum Georgii Merkulov on the ice. Apparently no points yet but he was there.
Excellent write up and analysis of the successes (offensive powerhouse) and woes (consistently blowing leads, dominating 80% of games but complete collapses the other 20%, and can't rely on goaltending to bail them out).
Focus guys and sweep some weekends to get us to 12 seed (or below) and a home Big 10 playoff game. Let's start by sweeping those nuts down south.
Top performance from the D in the house tonight, no terrible DZTOs, good goal tending, and our forwards finishing. I’m happy to see Nazar bury a few and also like seeing Draper progress this year. He seemed so out of place and IMO a constant liability previous seasons, but he is really coming to his own and contributing with solid hustle. You are spot on - Casey is worth the price of admission. Last year, we had two players that could Superman us through a game (Luke Hughes and Adam Fantilli). I feel like Casey is that game changer this year, but he does it with dazzle rather than a bang. Good stuff.
More good news. Though Rut did not play during the prelim game against Sweden today, he seems to be set to go for the first World Junior game against Norway. And, he was named Captain of the team. Here are a few good articles about this story that really highlight McGroarty as a competitor:
https://winnipegsun.com/sports/i-remember-crying-jets-mcgroarty-didnt-think-hed-be-at-world-juniors-never-mind-u-s-captain
https://www.flohockey.tv/articles/11733751-rutger-mcgroarty-named-team-usas-captain-for-2024-world-juniors
I hope so!! More deets on https://www.flohockey.tv/articles/11670147-world-juniors-2024-team-usa-camp-updates-analysis-from-day-1
The biggest win of the season - not only because of the timing but because of the 60 minute effort when we essentially played 3 lines again (for the 5th game?). IMO, this was Nazar, Lapointe, and Draper’s best games from a defensive / effort perspective. IF we can get Estapa and McGroarty back up front and Edwards finally back for defense in our second half of the season, perhaps we can ride the bubble and make the tourney. We have yet to play MSU (two at Yost, one at Little Caesars, and one at Munn) and have a home series against Wisconsin, so there are Pairwise points to be had. this is a dangerous team - just disappointingly inconsistent in the third period. If we can hold a lead, play to potential, we may be surprised. It’s college hockey, anything can happen and I hope we pull a strong second half like we have in previous years.
Good cast Alex and David! The blowing the lead thing is mentally draining and I think you’re right - if they won their games where they had a 2 goal lead, they’d be near the top of the country… Frustrating. Another thing, McGroarty out really highlights his importance. With him out, Truscott is on the right circle in PP1… How is that acceptable? I think that is a real reason why the PP has dropped from dynamic to so-so. It will be interesting if they have another PP1 set-up against Notre Dame. I’d like to see Nazar getting on PP1 somehow
Thanks Peter! It was an electrifying game and Michigan was buzzing controlling most play. I have to say, Nazar is really coming through. They just need more biscuits in Gopher baskets and less in their own. As you put it, they need more second chances with bodies in the house. Again, a game where Michigan controlled, led, and lost even though they were the better team for most of the night.
Good news on the recruiting front. Matvei Gridin from the UHSL Muskegon Lumberjacks committed to Michigan this week! The 17 year old Gridin is a 2024 draft eligible left-shot forward who is currently tearing up the UHSL. He’s second in scoring with 11 goals, 9 assists, and even 26 PIMs in 14 games played. Here’s the story: https://www.therinklive.com/junior-and-prospects/ushl/ushl-notebook-michigan-lands-gridin-sioux-citys-hupka-honors-adam-johnson-and-fargo-keeps-rolling-on-road
They held play all night except poor PK, sub par goaltending on our side, and stellar tending on the Badger side. They only game we really lost so far this season in terms of play is the opening Providence game. We just blew leads against UMass, Ohio, and now Wisco. I hope this is not a trend and we can learn to hold leads and win won goal games.
Nice analysis on a game that felt more like team Canada clobbering the lowest seed at the WJC. I was worried when Duke left the ice again. Good to see he is on the ice this week. Fingers crossed it stays that way for Wisco: https://twitter.com/umichhockey/status/1719529483143622691?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I also hope that Nazar shows up in Wisconsin. Despite my pre-season thinking he'd be our #1 center at this point and being a top player, he's been one of our least effective forwards (thinking about not capitalizing on his many many chances) and sports a -5
It would be great to hear your thoughts on Nazar in future segments.
Pretty nice write up! As someone who enjoys following college hockey recruiting (Hagens to BC still stings), I am thankful for these articles.
One question, I thought Charlie Cerrato (former NTDP and now on Youngstown in the USHL) was a Michigan commit. Did this change? I saw him play earlier this year and it seems like his game has grown since he was on the NTDP and is promising.
Love that you call him “Bark.” The fun guys in section 13 bark each time Bark makes a big save. Fun stuff.
The team was buzzing. I was surprised to see T. Duke, and he looked like Michigan’s best defenseman today. All over the ice, in the middle of scuffles, and playing smart with the puck. Fine game.
Loved seeing all lines engaged. The first few games, the Draper, Estapa, Lapointe (throw in Pletzke for a few shifts) was a liability. They looked good tonight getting pucks in deep and getting the biscuit in the basket. Good signs!
Nice to see Moldenhauer get on the board.
The refs need glasses. Mouldenhaur got boarded in the second, late hit on T. Duke after an icing whistle, trip Casey in the third. Ooof. But special teams paid off!
Awesome win for Michigan. This kid is Legit and IMO the best forward on the US NTDP 18's after Eiserman and Hagens. Now a good forward class coming in - Michael Hage, Kristian Epperson, Aidan Park, and now Humphrey's. Mikey Burchill and Charlie Cerrato (who is really finding his stride on the Youngstown Phantoms after being a dud with NTDP last year) appear to still be coming next year too.
As a hockey fan (seen all games going a bunch of years back) and not a football fan (never seen a game - ever), I'm fine with whatever times. But please don't take away October hockey... I so look forward to October as the beginning of the only sport I care about.
I do find it unfortunate that the "Hockeycast" team regularly talks about not seeing hockey games because of competing sports viewing opportunities, such as football games. Or mention that they didn't see the hockey game, but are still commenting on the few bits they saw in replay.
That said, I'm glad that there is a focus on hockey, but with the presenters prioritized the sport they represent...
Love the pod. I'm super excited to see what Moldenhauer, Schifsky, and Eernisse can do.
Totally agree with Nazar - tops in the B1G. I hope his summer showcase performance translates (note: two years ago, Bordeleau was the best player at the Showcase and had a good but not stellar sophomore year at Michigan). Snuggerud may fall flat this year as the former third piece on the Knies and Cooley line. How will he perform with with Moore instead? I think good but not great. Like McGroarty, I feel he is a finisher and not a driver. Nazar drives a line.
Excited with Truscott as Captain. He reminds me of when Joseph Cecconi was paired with Quinn Hughes.
How was Paul Coffey missed as an inspirational #77?
If…
Great write-up Alex.
If Moldenhauer is second in scoring, I hope it's based on an exceptionally overachieving year and not at the expense of our expected big 3's production: Nazar, McGroarty, Brindley (possibly D. Duke too, capable of getting 20 IMO based on net-front prowess if on PP1). Even Samoskevich had only 10 goals his freshman year.
Totally dig Warren. I think he will be number 2 over Truscott points-wise, though I think T. Duke has latent upside and a tenaciousness that will make him a fan-favorite workhorse.
Chase Pletzke - what to say? I sure hope the dude meets your prediction of exceeding the last two years of production despite playing a bunch.
Lines will be interesting - especially with more centers than last year (Nazar, Brindley, Hughes, Schifsky, Rowe, and even Estapa, McGroarty, and Moldenhauer if needed). Will Narauto load the top 6 (Nazar, Mcgroarty, Brindley, Hughes, D. Duke and Moldenhauer)? Or will he run lines that are more balanced as we saw at times during the Simon Fraser exhibition ? I recall combinations of the following at certain times (no particular order what is line 1 or 3) with each a speedster or two, a net front player / board battler, and a shooter.
Hallum - Nazar - Eernisse
McGroarty - Brindley - Schifsky
D. Duke - T.J.Hughes - Moldenhauer
Estapa / Rowe / Lapointe / Draper
This is going to be the year of the B1G (and BU and BC) and parity has never been better. Michigan first in B1G - not surprising. Michigan 4th in B1G - not surprising. Michigan out of the tournament, super surprising.
Michigan State's incoming class, portal transfers, and coaching is tantalizing and will make those games must see action. I'm glad we have technically a bonus home game (2 at Yost, 1 at Munn, 1 at L.Caesars).
I hope a B1G team wins the national championship to end the drought. With future talent skipping to mostly Boston teams (Celebrini, Perrault, Smith, Leonard this year; Eiserman and Hagens next year), it would be good to draw some of that back. Naturally, I hope this is Michigan's year and feel good about it with a veteran D corps.
Estapa note: the Children should start the "Free Es-Sta-Pa" chant near near the End of his penalty time when he is ready to return to the ice rather than at the beginning ... Curious what others think.
Love this blog.
Go Blue!
I really like the addition of Duke and Warren and, with them, feel good about our team. With the loss of Keranan, Pehrson, and Hughes, the additions of Duke and Warren, and the maturation of our D corps with no Freshmen, I feel that this year's quad will be deeper and more experienced. Of course we will miss the hero factor that Hughes can create at any moment.
It's going to be interesting how the coaching staff and the team change from last year and hopefully we will see less turnovers, less odd man rushes, and less high danger plays that make our goalies move laterally. I hope to see a better PK and less goals in our end in general.
Great point about players developing at different rates.
Take Ty Smilanic and Matty Beniers. They were on the same NTDP under 17 team, where Smilanic was second in team scoring with 38 points in 54 games while Beniers was sixth in scoring with 23 points in 42 games. During the NDTP U18 team, Smilanic's growth and production dipped to 8th on the team with 22 points in 34 games while Beniers' production skyrocketed to being second on the team with 41 points in 44 games. As we now know, Beniers was a star at Michigan and is a star for the Kraken - even winning the Calder. While Smilanic transferred to Wisconsin where he put up an anemic 1 goal and 1 assist in 14 games...
So yeah, players sure develop at different rates! I'm excited to see how Eernisse is deployed by Naurato.
I received an email recently stating that season tickets were all sold out. They shared that ticket packs and single-game tickets will both go on sale in the month of September and instructed folks to Sign up for ticket information to be notified when tickets go on sale. Here it is:
https://mgoblue.com/sports/2017/6/16/ihm-season-ticket-interest-list?utm_medium=email&elq_cid=248802&ehash=43d2342bc94d49b1d7ddfabfa55a4d33b97c2635c0efadeba750928f5384a13c
Yeah, St. Cloud is really the only apparent top ten non-con team of the bunch. Very different than last year's Harvard, BU, and Western lineup and the previous year's Minnesota State and Minnesota Duluth (at the Icebreaker tourney), Western, and UMass (when they were ranked #10, though a overrated at the time) lineup.
I hope UMass will improve this year, though not against us - lol! Surprisingly, Scott Morrow is returning and is quite the dynamic defensemen and UMass is bringing in a class of 3 drafted players (Suniev 3rd round, Vantassell 7th round, O'Neill 5th round). Apparently, they brought in a bunch of grad transfers too. Though my guess is that they are on the outside looking into the tournament, who knows how this will shake out for the Minutemen: https://umassathletics.com/news/2023/7/31/vanroboys-added-to-massachusetts-hockey-roster-as-graduate-transfer
Note: January 19th game is in East Lansing.
I'm happy to see this. Since Quinn Hughes, we have been spoiled with elite puck moving defensemen: York (kind of), Power, Luke Hughes, Seamus Casey. This may keep the tradition going and the Michigan style is so dependent on elite puck moving D.
When seeing him play last year, I was taken by his solid positioning and tenacious board battles. My favorable "eye" test of Duke shows in your data. Thank you for the excellent write up. Michigan is fortunate to have the other Duke for a few years.
Also, I see Casey as a lock for the first pairing given his exit and entry prowess, ability to walk the line and shimmy to change the angle for a pass or shot on net, and acceptable defensive zone play. I can honestly see Duke, Warren, or Truscott pairing with Casey to allow him to be creative. I would not be surprised if Duke was on the top line with Casey over the course of the year. He's a sophomore and has solid upside. We kinda know Warren and Truscott's ceiling.
I think Edwards may fall to the third pairing with the alternating 6th defenseman (most likely Holtz, but I can see Druskinis and Fantilli getting some play).
Overall, I'm much happier with the defensive corps this year versus last even though I miss Hughes' game changing ability (and don't miss his mindless moments gifting teams OMRs). Hughes gone also means more minutes for all D, since he ate up an enormous about of minutes.
This news has made me so happy. When seeing NTDP games in Plymouth, visiting Buddy's is a must. I'm glad to have this option inside Yost.
Great stuff! Do you know if Warren was regularly utilized or excels playing as the right D? Michigan only has two right shot D (Casey, Holtz) that will likely slot in the top 6, so excelling while playing on his offside would be an asset. With this in mind, how do you see the pairings shaping up?
Truscott (L) Casey (R)
Warren (L) Edwards (L)
Duke (L) Holtz (R)
Fantilli (L), Druskinis (R) Orrico (R)
I'm so glad I don't have to look at this whiney and dirty player's face again in a Gopher uniform. His hit on Ciccolini was cheap, cheap, cheap: https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/1593708017773576193?lang=en
It would have been cool to have him, but it's not surprising. Based on previous articles (here is one: https://gopresstimes.com/2022/12/27/levshunov-speaking-hockey-language-well-in-gb/), Arty did not speak English before going to Green Bay. Given his two years there, I would have been surprised if he could meet UM English proficiency standards for international students.
Besides, it's probably the right move for the kid. He'd be a second pairing defenseman and fighting for time on the second power play at UM. He'll be top pairing and on the PP1 unit at MSU.
Regardless, I'm happy he is at MSU. Tightening the talent gap between MSU and UM will increase competitiveness and make the games more interesting. Honestly, with Nightingale bringing in other transfers (notably former NTDP and first rounder Isaac Howard and the gritty and skilled Red Savage) and flipping the top prospect net minder Trey Augustine from Michigan, I now see Minnesota, Michigan, and MSU contending for the B1G.
I hope Columbus gets Fantilli. I’d love to see Fantilli with Johnson and Blanks for years (though seeing Fantilli go to Chicago and age with Nazar would be sweet too).
A bit of bid thievery indeed. That said, Colgate have not been cupcakes going 6 / 4 against other tourney teams this year, so Michigan needs to bring the intensity of their recent games.
Colgate vs. Merrimack: 0 / 5 Loss
Colgate vs. Merrimack: 5 / 3 Win
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 2 / 3 Loss
Colgate vs. Harvard: 6 / 4 Win
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 3 / 2 Win
Colgate vs. Harvard: 4 / 5 Loss (OT)
Colgate vs. Cornell: 2 / 3 Loss
Colgate vs. Cornell: 4 / 4 T/SWW
Colgate vs. Quinnipiac: 2 / 1 Win/ OT (ecac tourney)
Colgate vs. Harvard: 3 / 2 Win (ecac tourney)
It was very strange. At 9am I was not able to select seats and all the sections were greyed out as if there were not tickets, but when I used the "purchase by price" function, I was able to snag 2 tix by 9:02am. I guess I got lucky.
As a season ticket holder, I wish there was a function in the MGoBlue ticketing system that allows us to simply retain our usual seats and automatically get charged.
Because Bob confided that he loves the Children's true-to-life artistic ability. Seriously, listing good coaches was to make a point and not suggesting they are looking for jobs...
That's exactly why I liked the GLI as well. Even if the games were a loss and hurt our pairwise, I think in the end the extra game helped the team gain momentum in the second half.
What an awful game. Not to make excuses, but from the Druskinis hit onwards, the team played timid as if they were pulling back from physicality in fear of penalties. And the reffing reinforced this. The Duke “embellishment”? I thought that would be a 5 minute major…
Add that to a lack of energy, giving up way to many odd man rushes, getting virtually no odd man rushes, poor goal tending, and even an own goal at the end (though it was over anyways). A really demoralizing game. I hope this one falls in the “We can do better” category and motivates the team.
Excellent cast! I was admittedly one of those cringing when Harbaugh was directing players onto the ice fearing a delay of game penalty - which honestly should have been given. To his credit, Ted Donato did not seem to be encouraging the refs to assess a DoG penalty. Ted seems to be a class act.
The comment…
Excellent cast.
The comment about what does 3 assists make reminded my of grade school. In USA youth hockey (at least back in the '90s), 3 assists was a "Playmaker" and earns youngsters a patch for their hockey club team jacket! Of course the kids with the "Hat Trick" patches were cooler...
A happy surprise indeed! And with the Big10 success in non-conference games and Michigan's excellent non-conference showing, this may bode well for pairwise later on if we can claim a 1 or 2 spot in the Big10.
Upsets around college hockey abound so far (heck, Wisconsin sweeping Minnesota Duluth??? ASU beating NODAK???), which has been good for Michigan thus far. But I think that is a demonstrative reminder that any team can win any game in college hockey. I think Penn State is super overrated, but hey, they can likely pull wins against any team at any time (like any hockey team). A good reminder for Michigan to remain focused and continue to clean up their game. It's going to be a fun year for certain.
As noted earlier, Penn State's record is good but that means nothing since their competition is the bottom of the barrel: Canisius (.222 winning percent), Mercyhurst (.150 winning percent), St. Thomas (.292 winning percent), and Wisco (.250 winning percent). Michigan is their first team with a winning percentage Penn State will play. Maybe they are good, but this series will decide versus their perfect record.
I very much agree. Talent is undeniable with finishers who are not afraid to get dirty in the high danger areas to score. But, defensive zone coverage and turnovers are an early major problem 0 both at even strength and on the penalty kill. Clean that up and we have a contender!