Wild Swing in Early Odds for the Iowa Game: Michigan by 3.5 to 10.5
Some of the early odds are out for next week. DraftKings has us favored by 3.5, BetMGM has us favored by 4.5 and FanDuel has us by 10.5.
Another early line has Maryland by 3.5 over MSU.
September 25th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Right, because chatting on a message board about football dominates my life and is a huge source of stress.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Or maybe Coach will take his own advice and embrace allowing JJ to actually "Be you". And Michigan wins 45-6...or 4...think Iowa can get 3 safeties???
September 25th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Actively rooting for him to be hurt pretending like you don't? He has shown to be better than many of the experienced QBs in B1G.
September 25th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
No, dick, I'm hoping for a nuclear war so we don't have to play the game at all.
September 25th, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^
Maybe the team shouldn't go...? Sounds scary. At least the locker room at Kinnick is a safe space.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
Hopefully with the Iowa offense being inept, our defense scores some points
September 25th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
Need to score early and often next week. Put up 20 points in the first half and they’ll just quit because it’s illegal for the offense to score that much in the state of Iowa.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Meh, get to double digits and you probably win as long as you can avoid turnovers.
September 25th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
The Iowa game will be JJ's toughest test this season. He scrambles around like Fran Tarkenton, UM will be in deep, deep trouble. JJ needs to take the quick, short reads all day long, let the running game get some yards, and remember that Iowa's offense is god-awful.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
JJ is pretty good at at scrambling and he has decent pocket awareness. I'm sure Iowa's defenders are more disciplined than Maryland's, but they're probably a little slower, too (sorry ... stereotyping). I see no problem with JJ going "Mahomes" a few times.
September 25th, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^
I'm not sure I'd say that he's good at scrambing. On net, I think his dancing around might be a negative. He zig zags and goes backwards. Also has ball security issues. Certainly yesterday the net results of his improv was for negative yardage. And I still have PTSD from his MSU booted ball fumble.
September 25th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
On net, I think his dancing around might be a negative. He zig zags and goes backwards.
With the exception of the one bad sack yesterday, how often has this actually happened? More often than not, he's able to buy time to get off a throw. He also picked up at least one first down on a scramble yesterday.
Ball security may be a concern though.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
If you can bet those lines now, you could lay some heavy cash on Mich -3.5 and Iowa +10.5 and have a great shot to win both. That's a huge middle.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
Can we actually bet this game though? I’m not seeing it in either FD or DK.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I'm not seeing it anywhere yet. We need a PSA that these 3rd-party betting line aggregator sites are often inaccurate
September 25th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
Update: Fanduel just posted Michigan -7.5
September 25th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
That's a huge middle.
An enormous one that would be quickly corrected, I'd think. That would imply a Michigan moneyline of -150 on one site and an Iowa +275 on another. You could literally bet both sides of that and guarantee profit.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
Maryland beats Sparty straight up, close one. Game winning FG type of game.
Illinois and Wisconsin play a close one as well, Badgers prevail.
Nebraska rallies at home to get their 2nd to last win of the entire season.
OSU murders Rutgers and PSU gets a sleepy 3 score victory over NW.
Purdue/Minnesota...that's the non-Michigan B1G game I want next weekend. I think Minnesota wins the B1G West, but Purdue is the team that I think gives them the most trouble. I'd take the Boilers if they were at home...on the road, toss-up.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
The same Purdue that lost to Syracuse and just had to pull off a two point victory vs FAU? I know they didn’t have O’Connell but I don’t think they give the Gophers a stiff test
September 25th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
I don't think it'll be the same Purdue.
I think it'll be the Purdue that goes 6-6, but always manages to give someone at the top of the conference a tough game.
Usually that game is at home.
But no, I don't see it being that Purdue team that we've seen the past few weeks. I think this is their one "why can't we play like this all year?!" game this season.
September 25th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
Stick around MSU has a real doozy for you coming up.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
Really? I thought Purdue has looked extremely underwhelming in every game besides Penn State. I could see them going under 500, even being in the West.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
Minny could very well run away with West with ease. I think Maryland could be the 2nd best in the West if they played on that side. The West is bad. Iowa could be 2nd best team and their D scores more than the O. Whisky is maybe a 7 win team this year.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Just really hard to tell with Minnesota ... they are 177th in strength of schedule thus far according to Sagarin ... one behind Michigan. They still have to go to Penn State and they get the Wisconsin game in Madison. Wisconsin looked like a shell last night but their defense usually pulls it together. Minnesota also looked really good last year and then lost to Bowling Green and Illinois, both at home, and scored a combined 16 points in those games, so they are capable of laying some real turds. But the West is so bad they have to be the clear favorite.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Minnesota is stacked with Covid seniors this year. I think they're legit, at least as long as Ibrahim is healthy (he's got an injury history).
September 25th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
Purdue/Minnesota...that's the non-Michigan B1G game I want next weekend. I think Minnesota wins the B1G West, but Purdue is the team that I think gives them the most trouble. I'd take the Boilers if they were at home...on the road, toss-up.
Not if the Boilers are still without O'Connell. Burton was serviceable but Minnesota's D is stout, especially compared to FAU, who really should have won that game if not for Perry's poor decision making.
Ibrahim is going to wear down the Purdue DL and then Morgan will hit some big passes.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
I think the Purdue hype train is fully derailed now. The only game they looked good in was an FCS game. They already have a conference loss and the game is at Minnesota. I'm not buying Minnesota as a lock for Indy, but they're just playing some good mistake free football right now.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Depends on which QB plays for Purdue, Aidan O'Connell was out against Florida Atlantic. They need him back for Minny
September 25th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Can you bet M and lay the 3.5 and Iowa with the 10.5 and hope for a sweet spot game?
September 25th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
Yes, if you can catch both, this is the play.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
If you can actually find these -- which I kinda doubt -- bet Michigan -150ish on the -3.5 site and Iowa +275ish on the +10.5 site, guaranteed profit
September 25th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
That's a wild spread.
If you can get take Iowa at 10.5 and UM to cover at 3.5 it's a great arb opportunity.
If we win by say a TD you win both bets.
Otherwise, if spread falls outside the range, you're just paying the house fees.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
this will be a tough game, you better believe they remember the BIG championship game and will be looking for revenge
it's all about improvement now.... we not ready for that OSU game
fortunately our schedule is perfect to allow us to improve prior to OSU
but after yesterday, I expect us to have 1 loss heading into OSU instead of being undefeated. Some things will improve, but finding a pass rush is pretty difficult to do during the season.... hopefully at least the LB play improves
I have no doubts JJ will improve
(let's be honest with ourselves about yesterday, Maryland isn't going to be a 10 win team.... we aren't where we need to be yet, but we will not be the same team when we roll into OSU)
September 25th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
They've got Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, and MSU left on their schedule. Those are all very winnable for them, plus they get Wisconsin in College Park.
EDIT I misread. Wisconsin in Madison. 8 wins then.
They could get to 8 or 9 wins and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
I think UM by 6 is the right spread. Iowa has an incredible D. We are playing on the road for the 1st time this year and haven't won in Iowa City since 2005.
September 25th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I thought Maryland -17 was easy, but not sure I wanna touch this game. I feel Michigan wins it fairly easy by 14+ but intangibles of being in Iowa, having a new QB that loves to cough up the ball, and Iowa's defense may keep it closer.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
Not to mention, I think the coaches think there's no reason to put JJ in harms way.. or shake his confidence more. I see a lot of punting coming. Safe plays, etc...
I would be in favor of attack attack attck, but, from what I saw yesterday, JJ is unable to find WRs down field (whoever's fault it is) against MARYLAND.. who has a bad defense, he fumbled it twice, and couldnt hit the long ball at all.
Makes me think harbaugh will put the kid gloves back on. Lots of running into a heavy box and 3rd and 7 type plays.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
I still think Michigan wins, just a lot closer than most fans will like but to get out of Iowa with a win and nobody hurt should be the top priority.
September 25th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Agree. Get the W.
Look around. Texas pushing Alabama. 2 top ten teams go down. Notre Dame struggles. Msu is a clown show. Miami is a joke. Something to be said for winning ugly... Because it's a win
September 25th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
If tua's bro is healthy, that team is pretty good. Locksley seems to be a pretty good coach. At least offensively. They were running all over us, and we shut it down and started coming after the QB... and not dirtily.. what the f was that comment about?
Anyway - i think that team is more complete than msu...
Looks like another "Michigan is the only game that matters" year for them. yay.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
There lines look much improved from previous years
September 25th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Where is there? Or is there no their, there?
September 25th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
I will take those FanDuel points, please and thank you.
September 25th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
Sorry MGM, will need +35000 on that one...
September 25th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
If Minny demolished MSU like that, Maryland will do similar. Give me Maryland -3.5 all day long.
Michigan -3.5 is fine. The -10.5 line is dicey.
September 25th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
Except I think Maryland will suffer a letdown rather than getting fired up to plan a team they can and should beat. Hopefully I am wrong.
MSU is another interesting situation from a team dynamic. Have all the x-fers ruined their team culture (chips anyone?). Will they circle the wagons and improve or just give up? Time for Tuck to earn some of that contract, lol.
September 25th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Maryland's defense is not a good as Minnesota's.
September 25th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
My record of picking Sparty to cover and them then getting their hats handed to them is perfect.
So MSU to win by a touchdown over Maryland thanks to some better coaching and less sweating by Tuck.
September 25th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
I see we follow the same betting pattern, Mr. Space Emperor. I liked MSU +3 (-125) yesterday....
Wait for my picks, and then bet the opposite. I'm a good fade.
September 25th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
This feels like a game where the fancy stats say one thing and the lizard brain says another.
SP+ has Michigan about a 10 point road favorite.
The lizard brain says "Kinnick; first road start; quarterback with a reputation for being a risktaker; Iowa revenge factor; Michigan looked somewhat shaky against Maryland; Iowa has the best defense in the Big Ten." I could easily see Michigan -3.5 in that scenario.
So while I'm sure they'd have converged to one number before too many sharps were able to take the middle, I can understand the difference of opinion.