Why is Michigan historically bad in bowl games? Revisiting Alex's Take

I figure it's a whole host of reasons, but a couple stick out.  I forget which years I actually dug up the info, but in years, B1G bowl teams played a majority of their bowls in the backyard of their opponents.  In fact, I remember one year having 7 of our 9 B1G teams playing in the home state of their opponent.  The only exceptions being the small bowls like the Pinstripe or some other nonsense.  Having all the major bowls in destination locations often puts northern teams at a geographic disadvantage.  Of course, not much stink is made of this because fans of cold weather teams relish the chance to vacation for the bowl games.  Our fanbase travels well, but not as well as teams whose fans only need to drive 2 hours to the stadium.

In my opinion, the only one that really mattered in the past 30 years was the Rose Bowl after the 1997 season... and Michigan won that. So basically, these bowl games don't mean a damn thing. You can't win a conference title and rarely a national title.. so what's the point. They don't count towards anything really.

It’s the Rose Bowl in particular that HATES Michigan with rage.  Every single possible thing that could go wrong has happened to us out there.  The following things have happened….

- Bo having a heart attack the night before the game and the team going to the game in tears.

- Practices being rained out.

- Knowing Stanford was going to fake a punt and still allowing them to get the first down in order to kick a FG to spoil our 11-0 season.  Lost 13-12.

- Charles White leaving the football behind on the 2 yard line (with Michigan recovering) and USC still getting the TD in a game that was decided by 7 points.

- Quarterback Steve Smith being injured and not being able to play.

- The phantom holding call on Chris Stapleton’s fake punt (there was a whole backstory with Jim Kemerling intentionally throwing the flag to screw Bo over in his final game. He bragged about it afterwards and the PAC 10 official made a personal phone call to Bo to tell him what Kemerling did.)

- A Navarre pass being intercepted only because the ball bounced straight up off of Braylon’s heel and perfectly into the hands of a USC defender who wasn’t expecting it.

- The entire game against Vince Young, losing by 1 point. Take away one of the 100 missed tackles and that was a win. 

Even in victories, calls have gone against us.  The 98 Rose Bowl had WSU getting 50 yards on their last drive because the guy pushed off on Woodson yet no flag.  The 93 Rose Bowl had Washington score a TD despite fumbling the ball into the end zone from the 2 yard line.  USC had a neural zone infraction on a 2 point conversion and it was never flagged. 

I will never understand why the Rose Bowl gods despise Michigan.  The majority of the games have been close but something inevitably goes wrong. 

2015: Blowout win vs. Florida

2016: 1 point loss to FSU in which Dalvin Cook has a big game and the team loses Peppers (the only Dalvin Cook check on the team) right before the game.

2017: South Carolina shit show loss. Really no excuse for this one. 

2018: Blowout loss to Florida post OSU 2018 in which Florida was supremely motivated in year one of Dan Mullen and Michigan had a number of players sit out.

2019: Slow motion blowout loss to Alabama. Michigan wins the first half, Patterson players pretty abysmally, Alabama takes control and wins convincingly. 

2021: All-time Georgia defense loss.

2022: TCU debacle. 

2018-2021 all make sense as losses given the nature of the opponent or the circumstances. 2016 you can forgive because of the Peppers loss. Its really hard to come up with any reason as to why Michigan did not beat South Carolina or TCU outside of poor preparation/coaching/terrible mistakes. 

Nick Sabans post season wins while at Bama have been for the most part played in the South.

Im hangin' my hat on the fact that his teams dont travel to west coast very well.

Go Blue!

Regarding last year's bowl loss:

I adore JJ. He is an amazing QB.

But he almost single-handedly lost the TCU game for us that day.  It was his nightmare game, and I bet it still motivates him.

He won't let that happen again this year.  I have total trust in JJ.

In the last few years I think the "opt out" for top players - in particular those not in the playoffs or January 1st games has had a big impact.

Historically, it would be interesting to see how the pairings and match-ups look for not just Michigan but in general.  The BCS/playoffs in particular I think had a lot of match-ups where OSU was in those games.  Due to that, the remaining Big10 was slotted into bowl games based on  bigger fan base travel & TV revenue impacts - but it placed the Michigan/Penn State/Wisconsin type teams into match-ups where they were matched against better ranked, and typically "home" teams in CA, FL, etc.

Also: In the past, especially, Big10 teams tended to be overrated and PAC 10 teams underrated. Seemed like every year M or OSU would be the favorite and lose. A lot of East Coast media bias there.

Just commenting on TCU, but I think that was just a bizarre game that didn't go our way. TCU pulled 5-6 horseshoes out of their butt. The weird razzle dazzle play at the goal line Weiss served up. The non-TD Wilson catch call. Some out of character missed defensive assignments in the secondary. I think that game was just a product of the football gods not liking us that day - and we still almost pulled it out. For the Georgia game, we were simply outclassed. You just have to look at the starting offensive and defensive line-up they had - that was a generational team we got paired up with.

2010 - Michigan spanked by a better SEC team with a better coach.

2011 - Michigan didn't deserve to be there and didn't deserve to win. That was a catch.

2012 - Blew the game because we didn't block Clowney.

2013 - Michigan spanked by a better Big 12 team with a better coach. 

2015 - Florida didn't show up, Harbaugh Y1 bump. Good Healthy QB play.

2016 - Blew the game because we didn't boot the kickoff out of the endzone. Michigan was an overconfident team who didn't have what it takes to close out games (see Iowa, OSU, FSU)

2017 - Blew the game because we couldn't cover a 30-year-old TE. Also see above, this era of Harbaugh teams didn't win tough games. 

2018 - Florida did show up after Harbaugh crushed them in two previous outings. Lull after missing out on playoffs and getting pantsed by OSU. But more than likely this was a mediocre Michigan team propped up by a bad B1G. Also also, see above. 

2019 - Michigan beat by a better SEC team with a better coach. Also also also, see above. 

-----COVID RESET-----

2021 - Michigan spanked by a better SEC team with a better coach. 

2022 - Wait a minute, maybe this era of Harbaugh teams doesn't win tough games either, the B1G is the worst it's ever been, and Ohio State just isn't tough under Ryan Day.

2023 - Hey Charlie Brown, want to kick this football?

I agree with Alex’s explanations, especially the breakdown of each individual bowl under Harbaugh. At a closer look it’s hard to say there’s anything systemically flawed in how the current regime approaches the post season.

After stepping on a rake last year and running into a buzzsaw the year before, I have a really REALLY hard time believing the team won’t be locked in. You have to think re-examining TCU prep was a major area of self-scouting this past off-season. In some ways, drawing the boogie man Bama could be a blessing of extra motivation.

I’m cautiously optimistic (a little more so than going into the Ohio State game) and will be there in Pasadena. It’s my first Michigan bowl game so who knows, maybe I’ll help break the ‘curse’.

I will supply the following reasons and excuses many of which are repeats:

1.  Often the other team has been better than us.

2.  We typically perform better on artificial surfaces.  Bowl games played in Pasadena, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville and San Diego are all played on natural surfaces.  Footing in the game against TCU was particularly bad.

3.  Michigan is an attractive pick for Bowl selection committees because we bring a lot of fans and a lot of TV viewers.  The opposite of Sparty disrespekt.  As a result, we are often playing against an opponent whom we are overmatched for.

4.  Often our opponent is playing in their backyard and we have much farther to travel.  The crowd is tilted towards the opponent and we are playing a road game.

5.  The run-focused offense seems to work better against B1G opponents in bad weather than in Bowl games.

6.  Bowl game is treated as a vacation by coaching staff.

7.  Screwed by officials

8.  Bo had a heart attack.

9.  Some of our best teams were not allowed to go to bowls because of the Rose Bowl only rule.

Well we should be fine this time and RIPE for winning!  Because this isn't your ordinary bowl game, this time!!!

GO BLUE

I think it’s partly we take Ohio more seriously, but also it’s how our roster is constructed favoring a game vs. Ohio more than a bowl game.  Our most important game is outdoors, in the North, in November.  Weather is more likely to matter, so you design a team that is less likely to be disadvantaged in those conditions.  SEC teams have their biggest games in warmer weather, and also often in domes, the same type of environments as we find in bowl games.  They already have the optimal personnel and schemes for the games because they’ve been using them all year.

I do think this year will be different for us, because CFP was a realistic goal unlike in many years, and accordingly there has been more advanced preparation.  This team feels unique compared to its predecessors.

I see that the post preceding this one was posted while I was just finishing my thoughts, and I agree with it.

Players get chosen, trained and developed to win Big Ten games. That means cold weather in November. Hands get cold. Passes get dropped. It's a different environment than California, the South, etc.

That requires a different style of football than other conferences play, especially late in the season.

You can't suddenly reinvent the wheel, and expect a team that's put together for one purpose to become something it isn't chosen for, trained for, or practiced all season to be.

Michigan teams have been at a disadvantage in warm weather games, and have gotten boat-raced at times for a perfectly good reason. It's true that OSU has been able to win more bowls in the last few decades, but they've also had superior talent, and could be more flexible using that talent.

Occasionally, we've had teams that were so good at everything, and so dominant, that they couldn't be denied. Those teams have won their bowls.

I think we have the potential to win this one.

But to expect the coaches to reinvent what this team is good at, and do it in a few weeks is a tall order.

Arguments that conflate Michigan’s recent bowl record with Bo’s bowl record in an attempt to demonstrate a mysterious “problem with the program” are unserious. We are as distanced from the Bo era as Bo was from the days of Fielding Yost. The game has changed immensely, as has the school, as has the program.

The reasons one can argue Michigan did poorly in Bo’s era, or even the late Carr and following eras, are different from how bowls work now. And attempts to draw a straight line between the struggle against TCU and, say, a frustrating loss in the BWW bowl by a mediocre team QB’d by Shane Morris.

And in the mean time there were times when Michigan was quite good in bowls. Mo and early Lloyd were just fine, winning Rose Bowls and other big games. Lloyd had a winning record against excellent SEC teams, for example; an Arkansas team that was a Clint Stoerner stumble away from winning a national title lost to an only-ok Michigan team after the 98 season, and we all remember what Brady and Terrell did to Alabama after 2000, and what the team did to Urban’s Florida team between their two national titles.

In today’s era you can’t treat every bowl event the same, and you need some context. Michigan lost the Rose Bowl after 2016, but against an elite FSU team and with our best defensive player injured and one of our key offensive players hurt in-game, and still they led late. The 2019 team was known to be flawed (absolutely trucked by both Wisconsin and OSU) and actually looked competent against a Bama team that barely missed the playoff.

I think it’s fair to wonder what went wrong last year, but it is not the same question as what went wrong in 1996 or 1971. And, frankly, not the same question as what went wrong even after, say, 2018.

What I think went wrong last year? Honestly not sure, but not having Blake hurt, and being behind early hurt, and I do occasionally wonder if they were a bit divided in focus. But one hopes that they’ll get it right this year.

Remember, Harbaugh isn’t nearly as stubborn as some complainers would have it. He has always shown a willingness and ability to adapt, whether by changing staff or adjusting playcalling process or tinkering with the philosophy of different units. If there was a notable issue with bowl prep last year, he’ll address it. If the gameplan was undercooked, he’ll address that. If the schedule wasn’t optimal, he’ll change it.

Here’s hoping they get it this year. 

I have talked with some within the program about this topic and came away thinking it was that Bo attitude you listed.  The goals are:

1. Beat OSU

2. Win the Big Ten

3. Win a National Championship

Any bowl outside of the playoffs does not address any of these three so the game is inconsequential. I would argue it is doubly so now that top players often sit out of bowl games.  Bowl win/loss records in today's world are completely meaningless outside of the playoffs.

Without reading the rest of the comments, I will throw in that some star Michigan players have failed to participate in bowl games in recent years. That includes Rashan Gary, Devin Bush, Jabrill Peppers, etc. 

Bowl games don't mean anything anymore. It's CFP or bust. It used to be that the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl or whatever could have national title implications, or at least a fight for a respected final ranking of #2 or #3.

If your top players are sitting out bowl games, the record doesn't matter. Can USC win their bowl game without Caleb Williams? Possibly, but they're not the same team. Was Michigan just as good without Jabrill Peppers, a Heisman finalist, in their bowl games? No.

It's much the same as why I threw away Michigan's 2-4 record during COVID. Was it fair to judge Michigan without Ambry Thomas, Nico Collins, Jalen Mayfield, Kwity Paye, Aidan Hutchinson, and others for all/most of the season? Thomas is a starting NFL corner, Collins is having a great year now that he has a QB, Paye was a 1st round pick, Hutchinson was the #2 pick, Mayfield was probably Michigan's best OL at the time (even if he hasn't done well in the NFL), etc.

The CFP record does matter, because guys aren't skipping CFP games and there's a reason to care. So Michigan is 0-2. Georgia was a lot better in 2021 and they deserved to win. Michigan laid an egg in 2022, probably because they looked past TCU, which should have been a relatively easy victory. But a win this season puts them at potentially 1-3 or 2-2 in the CFP.

I think in the future, we won't be talking about bowl records...we'll be talking about CFP records.

I don't think Bowl Record is much of an indication of where your program ranks.

Bo was a woeful 5-12 in bowls.  Only one of those twelve was by more than one score.  1983 24-14 vs UCLA (Rose - their home stadium).

The top bowl records win % wise are:

Marshall .722 (13-5)

Army .700 (7-3)

Utah .690 (17-8)

LA Tech .654 (8-4-1)

Boise St. .650 (13-7)

Wake .647 (11-6)

PSU .640 (31-17-2)

OK St. .636 (21-12)

UGA .631 (37-21-3)

USC .830 (34-20)

There are a total of 5 B1G teams that have a winning bowl record:

*PSU .640 (.609 since joining the B1G 14-9)

Wisky .559 (19-15)

*Rutger .545 (6-5) (1-1 since joining B1G)

Iowa .529 (18-16-1)

Purdue .524 (11-10)

It would lead one to believe that depending on the conf. affiliations you are either playing up or playing down and in the case of teams like USC playing 2/3rds of your bowl games 15 miles from campus.   

I was at that Outback Bowl,.had moved to Tampa 4 years prior. It was unseasonably cold and miserable. No one wanted to be there - except for the annoying SC fans and their cowbells. I think they thought it was the Superbowl.

During the game, I noticed JJ slipped at least two different times on the field surface in Indianapolis.  Hope Michigan gets a chance to actually practice a few times on the Rose Bowl field ahead of the game, but don't know...guessing the sod there will create different footing that Michigan's stadium or practice field. Choose the right shoe type.  (FWIW - Alabama plays their home games on Bermuda Grass)

We lack a national championship offense. Specifically, lack the kind of vertical passing attack that helps keeps things even once the talent & talent development gap is closed. While we’ve got 100+ iterations of plays that run the ball between the tackles, our playbook is largely bereft of plays that scheme receivers open and reliably deliver chunks of easy yards. If you can mostly avoid getting battered up via body blows, you can beat us. 

Because they don't throw the ball on first down.

Bo said himself. 

People blamed it on conservativism, run-centric offenses, QBs that couldn't throw well enough, grass surface, time zones, etc.

It's all BS.

With few Rose Bowl exceptions (in game injuries), most of his Michigan teams were just one score worse than all the opponents they ever played against 1969-1990.  Michigan was competitive in most of those games.

They had their share of miserable fortunate though.