Why is Michigan historically bad in bowl games? Revisiting Alex's Take

Submitted by thelomasbrowns on December 6th, 2023 at 2:41 PM

Last year as part of a mailbag, I asked Alex why Michigan is historically bad at bowl games.  His take is below.  Do you agree? Are you keeping your expectations for the Rose Bowl low not because of this year's team but because of previous experience? (I am)

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Why is Michigan historically bad in bowl games? (-thelomasbrowns)

I talked to older Michigan football fans last night about this one for the Bo answer, because I am far from a Michigan Football historian and was not alive in the 1970s (surprise!). What I heard was two things, that Bo considered winning the B1G and beating OSU to be paramount and didn't care as much about bowls, and also that Bo mostly played in Rose Bowls. 10 of the 17 bowl games that Bo coached Michigan in were Rose Bowls, and he went 2-8 in those games, while going 3-4 in other bowls. Furthermore, Michigan played USC or UCLA in six of the Rose Bowls, opponents playing a de facto home game, while Michigan was traveling out there. Winning on the road in CFB is hard, let alone against very good teams. From that angle, it make more sense. 

As for the Carr and Harbaugh era? Carr lost four bowl games near the tail end of his tenure and part of that in my mind is the fact the B1G was not great in that era relative to the rest of college football. Ohio State lost by multiple scores both times they played in the BCS title game in the mid-2000s, PSU and Illinois got hammered by USC in their Rose Bowl appearances, so it's not really surprising to me that Michigan didn't beat USC in their Rose Bowl cracks, or Texas in 2004 (though there's a strong case they should've won that one). The teams they played were generally better than them. 

And Harbaugh? The Fiesta Bowl we can gripe about, but the rosters of Georgia and Alabama in the 2019-20 Citrus and 2021 Orange were way, way better than Michigan's. Michigan also had limited motivation in the bowl games following the 2016-18 regular seasons coming off devastating losses in The Game in all three. Bowl games in the modern CFB (outside of the playoff) are really all about which team actually cares about the game and wants to win. When you're told your season rests on beating Ohio State and then you don't beat Ohio State, it makes you far less interested in getting up for an Outback Bowl against South Carolina in rainy/muddy Tampa, Florida. Especially when you had OSU on the ropes and didn't pull it off. At least that's always been my theory.

https://mgoblog.com/content/january-mailbag-has-answers-about-football-matters

wetnoodle

December 6th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^

To me, it seems that Harbaugh does not change up his offensive game plan.  He just feels, well it got us here so try and stop us.  The problem with that is that your opponent has had approx a month to fully study you inside and out so they know all your tendencies, etc.  So you have to be more flexible and open things up more as well.  

DennisFranklinDaMan

December 6th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^

A specific play does not really make a "game plan." In fact, Harbaugh has always called for isolated trick plays (generally flea-flickers, but also occasional half-back passes).

But his game plan for that game appeared to be focused on achieving success by running up the middle and not generally attacking an undermanned secondary, and it took longer than many hoped to realize that TCU was both prepared for that, and was able to stop it.

umfan83

December 6th, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^

Plus honestly, against TCU I didn't mind the "we're the better team and we're going to play our game to beat you" strategy to start.  Michigan was the better team, I'll go to my grave thinking that.

But for this game, I think Harbaugh will be smart enough to put together a game plan that tries to catch Bama off guard.  I'm sure they'll dabble in trench ball to see if we are getting some push against their line, but we're gonna have to mix it up a bit to win and I think we will mix it up.

schreibee

December 6th, 2023 at 4:26 PM ^

I actually have been alive long enough to remember every bowl loss since Bo's heart attack on 12/31/69. So allow me to lump some of them into general categories. 

Start with the day after the heart attack. How in the Hell could any team be focused? Also, beating osu in '69 was probably the biggest win in the series history til this year. The Rose was definitely a secondary prize.

Following that is a series of games where Michigan greatly overestimated the relative talent levels of their team vs the Pac 10 (12) opponent. They prepared by going to Disneyland & Knotts Berry Farm, having eating contests, and staged beach photo shoots. Among that group we were also jobbed by Charles White's Phantom TD.

Finally Bo broke through, beating UDub when M had a team featuring AC, several other players with long NFL careers ahead of them + our 1st passing QB John Wangler. The rest of his career he won as many as he lost, including getting jobbed again in his last game as Michigan coach 1/1/90.

Then starts a run where Michigan went 9-4 in bowls, including a NC and culminating with TB & Henson going 3-0.

From that time on (we'll call it late Carr) through RichRod, Hoke & Harbaugh, Michigan has been a mixture of unprepared, uninterested or overwhelmed - with the massive exceptions of Carr's last & Harbaugh's first.

Thus, for the entire social media era Michigan has mostly sucked in bowls for one of the reasons listed above. And let's be honest, if it didn't happen in the social media era, did it really even happen to most of these "content generators"?!

Mineral King

December 6th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^

Having an end of the year rival like we do that means so much, has to factor in at least some what. Outisde of that, history can change. Right now its bad but if we go on a run, the narrative and history changes quickly. 

RXwolverine

December 6th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^

This entire post is just a large excuse. If we are as good as we think win the rose bowl and play for the championship. This was my expectation preseason. And who better to prove how good we are then beating bama

DennisFranklinDaMan

December 6th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^

But surely among the things that go into being "good" is play calling, preparation, strategy, player availability, and maybe even home-field advantage.

I guess you can say those things don't matter. Fine. This entire blog must be irrelevant for you, then, focusing as it does on what exactly goes into a win. You prefer a "one team was better than the other, full stop" level of analysis, I take it. :-)

 

schreibee

December 6th, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^

RX, that's just a lazy take. If we had come out aggressive vs tcu rather than believe we would overwhelm them with physical superiority, maybe we don't get way down and have to pass from behind. Maybe if they don't spend December prepping for Uga rathe than tcu they get some stops on D.

And that's just the most recent example! 

snarling wolverine

December 6th, 2023 at 4:47 PM ^

"Aggressive" like ... driving down the field and attempting a Philly Special on 4th and goal?

The biggest problem last year (aside from getting boned on that TD review) was that our team's identity revolved around Corum's running - and then we lost him.  Instead of being an offense that just methodically ground everyone into dust, we became a feast-or-famine team.  That was true in all three games without Corum (OSU, Purdue, TCU) but we managed to get by in the first two.

schreibee

December 6th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^

I agree that losing Corum hurt, more than our coaches were prepared to accept. They kept running Edwards into the line like he was Blake - and still are! 

And no, a really stupid  poorly executed gadget play like the Philly Special is not what I mean by "aggressive"!

I mean not trying to continue to grind it out while falling 2 scores behind. 

DonAZ

December 6th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^

I've long wondered if there's something about the longer layoff that affects Michigan more than other teams.  Why that might be is what I don't know.  Perhaps it has to do with the style of Michigan play, which may be more heavily dependent on rhythm and repetition?  I'm thinking back to this season where Michigan came off its bye week and, while winning by a handy score, there was talk of "knocking the rust off." 

The Homie J

December 6th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^

I think it's related to our style of play.  The run-first grind your opponent into the dust approach works well when the weather turns bad and teams are banged up after weeks of intense gladiator bouts.  But in the bowl game, you're playing in controlled environment with a fresh team who's had weeks to prep.  Which is why I think the pass happy 7 on 7 teams do well in the CFP, because every game is basically a track meet and the teams with faster players usually win.  It's hard to be fast when it's cold, windy and you've played 8-12 games without a break.

Look at how we beat Heisman winner Tim Tebow & Urban Meyer's Florida back in 2007.  Because it was Lloyd's last game, we opened up the offense and surprise surprise, we won.

schreibee

December 6th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^

In keeping with this theory, I believe Michigan will relatively thrive in the 12-team playoffs. 

Either they'll get a bye & play a team that didn't, or they won't & will face a team that has no more time to prepare than they do. Either way, advantage Michigan.

It's the 4 week layoff while Michigan reps "what we do" while the other teams prepare for what we do & doesn't worry about Michigan trying to change its spots that gets us!

mb121wl

December 7th, 2023 at 12:22 AM ^

Yes:

(1) We've typically been the slower team.  Except for AC, Desmond, and a few others, we've never had a track team out there.

(2) We don't adapt to grass quickly enough (it takes a week or more to get our "legs").

(3) Growing up in Michigan and living in California, I have always remarked on how "slow" the spring-like weather here makes me feel.  I really suspect that arriving in Cali for the Rose Bowl (and elsewhere for other outdoor bowl games) tends to make guys relax and lose their edge.

(4) The only "descendent of Bo" who was inventive and willing to take chances was Gary Moeller.  Carr was more like Bo--very conservative, very risk-averse.  Bo always said, when you pass, three things can happen, and two of them are bad."

(5)  Michigan has always been easy to prepare for.  In the '70s, early in Bo's tenure as head coach, you could sit in the stands and predict, as I did, every time the called play was a pass.  How?  Easy.  Run plays were executed out of the I, pass plays out of split backs (for max-protect.  It wasn't till Mo and Lloyd that M learned how to throw screens).  Recall the SC players saying when Lloyd and Braylon lost in the Rose Bowl that SC's defense knew what play was coming every single time?  Michigan is predictable and uninterested in finesse.

(6)  Even when we know what's coming, we don't have an answer.  Iowa knew Stanford was going to throw to McCaffrey, but they couldn't contain him.  He ran wild.  And Stanford had been doing that since the early '70s.

Undoubtedly there are additional reasons, but I'm too tired to think of them.  I hope I'm surprised, but I think the game will be another typical Michigan Rose Bowl.  (If you read about the '98 Rose Bowl game, you'll see that Lloyd understood he couldn't win by running the ball alone.  He knew Griese would have to beat Wazzu with his arm.  On three occasions, he beat the defense deep (twice to Tai Streets, once to Jerame Tuman).  Three plays produced a 21-16 win.

Koop

December 6th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^

IMHO I think one has to throw out the prior years for this year and for the Rose Bowl. Different team, different motivations.

It is a fact that even in the CFP, and even with last year's game against TCU, Michigan came out seemingly a little sluggish and a little under-prepared relative to the competition. 

BUT--this is Bama. No one is (or should be) taking this one for granted. I think we will see the team's A game. I hope the coaching staff took a long hard self-evaluation after the TCU game and changed their pre-bowl prep for this year.

Go Blue!

ESNY

December 6th, 2023 at 4:15 PM ^

Outside of the CFP, frankly no one outside the talking heads gives two shits about bowl game performance. Would I like them to win, sure. But do I think its a knock on Harbaugh to lose the Citrus Bowl - no and that goes double when you have players opting out for the draft.  CFP is a whole different ball game and if we see the same type of result this year - thats something different

nybluefan

December 6th, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^

That was certainly the attitude regarding bowls when I was a student (1983 - 1987).  I think Bo regarded the Bowl trips as a reward -- he let the guys have fun and was perhaps less intense in preparation.

Also, I seem to remember that Bo referred to out of conference games as "preseason."

tjohn7

December 6th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^

I firmly believe it more has to do with the opt-out culture and reduced significance of non-playoff games. 2015 was the team showing what it was about. Every year since then has been a vacation and basically just a scrimmage (hard not to view every non-playoff game as that now). Maybe that's excusing mistakes/gameplanning, but I imagine that's at least how I'd feel if I saw my teammates opting out/blowing out their ACLs (Jake Butt) over nothing.

MgoHillbilly

December 6th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^

Once you lose to Ohio and don't get a chance for a big ten title, you don't give a shit. Takes a minute to switch gears on post season efforts when you start having something to play for.

Ohio gets Missouri in the Cotton bowl. Let's see how excited they are to play.

Chaco

December 6th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^

- The popular take for Bo was that he was hyper focused on the OSU game and cared less about the Rose Bowl - but I've also heard we didn't change tactics (certainly true under Coach Carr) and that sometimes we worked our guys too hard and the team was wrecked by the time the played in the Bowl game.

- Overall in bowls you'd expect to be .500 give or take; on balance I'd say we've just underperformed

- In some cases from what I recall the B1G/SEC pairings would take the #3 team from the SEC and play the #4 team from the B1G.  Not sure that mattered, more notably bowl games are always a road game for us and less so for the SEC (when you play Florida in Orlando or USC in LA I suspect the audience will lean more towards them vs us).  I went to a USC v UM Rose Bowl and it certainly felt like a road trip.

- Since maybe 2016/2017 the bowl games really aren't representative of the team that was on the field for the season. The 2018 Peach Bowl struck me that way - we had a lot of key guys sitting out and maybe Florida WAS better than us that year but I doubt they were 41-15 better.  This applies to both teams so hard to say what impact it has.

jmblue

December 6th, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^

I've also heard we didn't change tactics (certainly true under Coach Carr) and that sometimes we worked our guys too hard and the team was wrecked by the time the played in the Bowl game.

Lloyd won five of his first eight bowls though (in fact, he went 5-1 from 1997-2002), and four of his seven losses were close games (vs. Texas A&M, Bama, Texas, Nebraska) that turned on just a play or two. 

He was outcoached by Pete Carroll in two Rose Bowls, and there was the one Citrus Bowl where we were overmatched against a strong Tennessee team, but that was really it as far as bad performances go.  

As for Harbaugh, I do think some of it's just been bad luck.  He's been in three close bowl games (vs. FSU, South Carolina and TCU) which could have gone our way, but we lost them all.  If a couple of those had gone our way, there probably wouldn't be any narrative about his bowl performances.  

BornInA2

December 6th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^

Historically, bowl games were a reward for winning the Big 10, with the latter being the ultimate goal of each season. To me, back then, the bowl game felt about like the Iowa game this year; not nearly as exciting as what preceded it.

"Let's go to Pasadena and have some fun" has a different emphasis on winning than, "Let's beat the Buckeyes".

mGrowOld

December 6th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^

I think the "we'll just out execute them" is why.  If you go back and watch our bowl games from Bo forward you'll notice almost immediately that the everything looks almost identical to the regular season while our opponents take the time to develop counters to what they've historically run.

The big exceptions to this was the 2nd half of the 78 Rose Bowl (down 24-0 and Bo opened up the offense), the 2nd half of the 2000 Orange Bowl (stopped running into an 8 man box and let Brady cook) and the entire 2007 Citrus Bowl (you want trickeration, we got your trickeration).

Every other game, even the ones we won like the 97 Rose Bowl, looked exactly like Michigan vs every B1G opponent.   I REALLY hope we dont repeat that this year cause if we do I fear we'll get beat.  Let JJ run, run play action and mix up our defensive calls to break tendency.  Because if I know we always do this you can be damn sure Saban does as well and is preparing for it as we speak.

The Homie J

December 6th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^

Agreed, I think once we reach the CFP, we have to become more of a "finesse" team if you will.  Our bruising run game works well during the regular season, but the playoff becomes more of a track meet.  When we open up the offense, we fare much better (like when JJ replaced Cade against Georgia 2 years ago, and suddenly we could throw downfield and hey look, a touchdown!)

If we try to beat Bama with our normal offense, we're gonna have a bad time.  Let JJ rip, actually use Donovan Edwards' best traits as a pass catching back, let Colston & Barner run routes all over and take at least 4 or 5 shots downfield to Roman Wilson, who should be open damn near every time.

BlueMan80

December 6th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^

Bo was definitely a “dance with who brung ya’” guy to borrow from Keith Jackson.  We trotted out the same stuff that we did all season.

Against TCU last year, it seemed like we made some assumptions about how the running game was going to work and boy were they bad assumptions.  Maybe over thinking things?  TCU had a plan that we didn’t anticipate. We got behind and that was the end of the running game.

We need to go against our tendencies and let JJ loose.

 

BOLEACH7

December 6th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^

BO always said THE GAME was the biggest game as did Woody … as well we were one dimensional with the run game and BO before Carter was very stubborn when it came to passing … as well our D for the most part did not face passing attacks like the PAC 10 had during the season … if that wasn’t enough the refs did their part by gifting phantom TDS 

RealElonMusk

December 6th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^

Michigan during Harbaugh's tenure has underperformed.  I think some if it is the OSU game meaning more and once that was lost the bowl game didn't really matter.

The biggest issue though is QB play -  Against TCU McCarthy had some great plays but the odds of winning when giving up 2 pick sixes is very low.

 

The 2020 Alabama Game shows the QB difference:

Alabama-  QB  Mac Jones #15 draft pick,  16/25 327 yds  13.1 avg  3 TD  0 INT

Michigan - Shea Patterson UDFA with KC 2 months  17/37  233 yds  6.3 avg 1 TD  2 INT

Alabama had great WRs-  Waddle Jeudy Smith ruggs     

Michigan also had a strong WR room-  DPJ, Giles Jackson, Ronnie Bell, Nico Collins

RBs    Alabama-  Najee Harris          Michigan Zach Charbonnet, Hassan Haskins