Why I Still Have a Glimmer of Hope
So like most people alot of my hype for the season has been diminished by what we have seen so far. However, the thing giving me a glimmer of hope is that last year's team also looked bad early on and we were all questioning after the NW and ND games if they could truly compete for the conference title. It seemed like the NW game was a catalyst in getting the team to kick it up a notch. Hopefully the ugliness of the first two games serves as a catalyst for the coaching staff and players to look at themselves in the mirror and make the neccassarily changes. Also we all know this offense has too much talent, particularly with Runyan and DPJ back soon to continue to look like they did on Saturday. Will it be good enough is the question.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Because there is a difference in recruiting guys ranked 250-400 than guys ranked in the top 250.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Well then we should stop doing that.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
I hope I make it past the border.
I hope to see my friend, and shake his hand.
I hope the Pacific is as blue as it was in my dreams.
I hope.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
I mean, we didn't really compete for a conference title. There was one other good team in the conference and they made us look like an fcs team.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
That's not fair. We were one of the two best teams in the conference last year by a mile. What happened in Columbus was not an acceptable performance by the players or the staff but it is not hyperbole to say they competed for the conference title. They were one of two teams that can make that claim last year.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
You think positive...........I'll be realistic
September 9th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
My preseason view was 10-2 or 9-3, with a loss to OSU, and no appearance in the conference championship game. And that was primarily resulting from a defense lacking proven playmakers on the DL, an OL with redshirt frosh at critical spots, and entirely predictable sputtering getting the new offense into gear.
Now that we have an injured starting QB suffering from understandable yips, 8-4 looks more likely to me than 10-2.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
The team clearly has the pieces to be really good. Not fumbling the ball multiple times a game will do wonders all by itself.
Finding a short yardage rushing offense will also do wonders. I don't know why we aren't just going I form with Ben Mason, it was near unstoppable last year.
Fix those two problems, and this team will be really good.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
I, too, lost hope after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
That's fantastic OP - you are definitely one of the few remaining Michigan fans who remain optimistic after we suffered that crushing defeat on Saturday. I mean to lose that game they way we did and have our hopes for something bigger this season ended so soon would take the wind out of the sails of a lesser man, that's for sure.
Oh...wait.
Nevermind.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
I thought you were going to say you preferred an OT thread about how to make the best pancakes.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
The fact you have to hold on to a "glimmer of hope" in year 5 of JH is disgusting to me. This team is average, this payroll is way above average. Do your jobs.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
"average"
I don't think you know what that means.
September 9th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
I'm questioning whether he knows anything about "jobs" as well.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
Most of the things wrong with this offense seems to be between the ears, between play calling/game planning, missed reads, sloppiness with the ball, and general roughness of execution. Throw in a QB whose likely got some injury induced accuracy issues and an opponent whose entire existence is to extract upsets from variance and you've got what we've had to open the season.
All those things seem fixable, so there's hope things will get better, especially with a bye week. We're also set to get a few key guys back (Runyan, DPJ, Wilson). Whether things actually will get better is anyone's guess.
My guess is we underestimated the transition cost of a new defense. Stylistically, it's a good fit so you don't have the season long issues where your scheme doesn't fit the personnel, but at the same time there's only so much practice time between spring and fall camp and if you're installing an offense, you're not repping it to iron out the kinks and simply giving the time on task to execute under pressure and against defenses you haven't seen before.
September 9th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
Did you mean to write "the transition cost of a new Defense" rather than Offense?
Because the defense has been really good! That's not been the issue so far. Held Army to its lowest yardage totals and YPC in like four years. Dominated MTSU until a garbage-time TD made it look like less than the beatdown it was. All while with our offense losing fumbles and with less than stellar QB play.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
I'm with you. For a few reasons...
1. Injuries are a thing right now...I'm optimistic that issue improves
2. The turnovers and "bad luck" have to move to the mean at some point, right? right?!?!
3. New offense, look at psu few years back and many (admittedly not all) teams that have a radical change on offense...it takes time. Unfortunately, UM doesn't have much time. So...chop chop.
4. Bye week...well shit UW has a bye week as well.
Let me finish with this; doesn't it always seems like when UM enters a season with high hopes they shit the bed (well not always, but a lot). Did this team need knocked down a peg? Maybe I'm reading it wrong but for those of you that played sports I'm sure you remember times you went into a season as the heavy favorites and shit the bed and were 0-2 and then you suddenly realized it's time to pick it up.
Who knows. Before the season I expected a 9-3 year simply due to the schedule so I'm not as down as many of you.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
We have seen this play out before (2017) and Harbaugh is what he is.
He's an average coach who beats the teams he should (for the most part) and loses to teams with equal and superior talent and coaching.
He can't win on the road against teams with a pulse and can't motivate a team to play above itself and pull upsets. What is he? 1-11 against Top 10 teams?
Is he better than Hoke and Rich Rod? Sure, of course. But that's a pretty low bar for a guy we all wanted to be our Saban or Urban.
Someone can lie to themselves and say he is doing great, but he hasn't won a B1G East title yet. He hasn't won a B1G title yet. Hasn't been to the playoffs yet.
Look at what Dantonio has done at MSU. I freaking hate that guy and his dog shit team but he has at least won titles. Look at what Franklin has done. He has beaten OSU and won a title.
This seems like the put up or shut up year for Jim and it isn't starting out great. The offense is in shambles and the same issues are plaguing this team that have plagued teams for his entire 5 years here. If he could fix it, he would have fixed it by now.
Maybe once Wisconsin prison-sexes this team, enough fans will have finally had it for the AD to make some moves. But I assume everyone will be just fine going 8-4 at best again and sing ye olde Michigan refrain "just wait 'til next year!!"
September 9th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
Goddamn I thought this place was a cesspool after a loss. I forgot how football season reminds me that we really do have a godawful fanbase.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
Yah, it's the fans who are the problem. Not Harbaugh.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
100% accurate.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Harbaugh has not performed as well at Michigan as many expected him to.
The fan-base is flipping the hell out to a comical degree over a win against a good team on a 10 game winning streak who last lost to Oklahoma by a touchdown in OT.
Both of these things can be true.
September 9th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
The only thing worse than this blog after a loss is this blog after a win.
September 9th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
No lies told. The Michigan brand is too large and too much money is spent by the fans for a mediocre product.
September 9th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
Sounds like you have some Huge Opinions.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
The last time OSU won the title they opened with a dud at home against Virginia Tech. Michigan is breaking in a new offensive system and has had a couple key injuries. You are all overreacting.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
When will you admit that fans aren't overreacting? What point is that?
September 9th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
They are objectively overreacting.
September 9th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Actually they opened with a 17-point win over... Navy. With a RS Fr QB who got the job a couple weeks prior the game.
September 9th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
And they were losing at halftime of that game, and were only up 3 with under 10 minutes left. If that were Michigan, this board would be only slightly less intolerable than it has been since Saturday.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
It’s game two. We played a turnover and error prone game. Play it again and it’s probably still annoyingly close but an easier win.
somethings up with Shea - need to sort that with him or Dylan quickly.
Other than that we don’t know shit about what we have here - a young team with a new offense and a defense that hasn’t faced a normal offense yet.
we have a lot of issues to fix. Either we will and the team will improve as the year goes on and we will win many games, or we won’t and the season will be a huge disappointment. game three is in two weeks. Let’s see how the game plan, Shea, and the team respond. This board is insufferable during the season. Let them play the games, criticize the things that could/should be better. Projecting a season one way or another is pointless.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
In a tie game in the fourth quarter against Army, a must score situation, the big heads came to our offensive coaching staff and said 'show us what you got'. They didn't get schwifty, they said what we got is 10 straight runs for 24 yards. I see no reason to believe this is going to change.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
And it's been this same thing for 3 OCs now. So it is clearly Harbaugh who is the problem.
Why would anyone with a damn brain and lick of talent want to work for him? Mark it down, Gattis is going to be leaving after this season. He could have gone to Maryland and actually be given the keys and learn from a guy who is dominating right now.
But he came here and was already grounded 1.25 games into the season.
Plus, why would any WRs want to come play here now? They are seeing 3 NFL caliber receivers get no targets. Nico get 3 targets on Saturday. 3!!
And I honestly don't remember even hearing Black's name.
Meanwhile, Maryland is throwing for 500 yards. The kids aren't dumb. They know what Jim is going to do.
This offense is a dinosaur and it's boring and it is what it is. Jim is what he is. If anyone hasn't accepted that yet, they are in for a rude awakening in 2 weeks.
September 9th, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
Exactly. How are we going to build anything when our best receivers never get thrown to? DPJ, Black, and Collins would have 40 receptions each at minimum in the right offense. Chesson and Darboh both had 50 in 2015.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Remember when Brady Hoke brought in a new, innovated OC in Nussmeier to fix Michigan's offensive woes? Remember how terrible that offense was? Remember how Hoke lost the faith/trust of the Michigan fanbase?
Year 5 of Harbaugh is starting to look eerie familiarly to Hoke Year 4
September 9th, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
I was a Harbaugh critic before the '15 season even started.
Having said that, the Hoke comparison is absurd. '11 and '12 were identical teams and then they got progressively worse '13 and '14.
We were 10-3 last year. Has Harbaugh lived up to the hype?
Absolutely not.
Does he look like Hoke 2.0?
Absolutely not.
I'm as frustrated as anybody over our offense so far, but let's get a grip here and grasp reality.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
The most concerning things that happened in the first two games are very fixable. Don’t drop the ball and we win both games a lot more easily. That’s not rosy eyed optimism, it’s a fact.
There is a lot to be optimistic about going forward. Charbonnet definitely looks the part. DPJ and other injured players will be back. Shea will heal up, or McCaffrey will get his chance to shine.
Part of the thrill of CFB is seeing a team grow over the course of a season. Hard to believe that some are giving up on the season after a 2-0 start
September 9th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Holding onto the ball would be a great start, but how do we fix the run plays up the gut for 2.4 ypc?
Seems like we're reverting back to the old way of thinking. At this point, can Harbaugh be fixed?
September 9th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Do you realize that neither of our first two opponents has had a sustained drive against our 1st team defense that resulted in a TD?
The offense is going to be fine. They are struggling with the transition a bit. So what?
Can Harbaugh be fixed!! Sheesh
September 9th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
well, until we lose a game, we're still on track to have an undefeated season....
its all 'post '97 ptsd'. we get taken to 2OT by a 22pt dog, we aren't able to move the ball at will, against an undersized defense and we watch most of the B10 blow the doors off their non-conference opponents.
we get two more weeks to try and find 'speed in space', Wisconsin has two weeks to try figuring out what the hell to expect.
Maybe we open the real playbook on the 21st.
Onward, GO BLUE
September 9th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Because you’re not insane?
September 9th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
It is natural to have reset expectations for the year given all the injuries and turnover woes. To beat Wisconsin on the road would be huge for this team. But for that to happen, the following positive things need to develop during the bye period:
- Shea's oblique injury must heal enough so he is no longer a constraint
- DPJ is 100% back and on punt returns
- Runyan is back and effective at LT
- Jeter and Dwumfour are back in the DT rotation
- Mason is the FB for goal-line / short yardage power-I sets
- Must win the turnover margin
I don't think anyone is stopping Taylor, but I am now more confident this defense can contain him. The defense took a huge step forward in the Army game. They showed toughness and a will to win. That arrow is up.
The offense looks beat up and out of sync. That final drive in OT was not good, the offense looked gased and Shea looked in pain. The offense needs a spark. I think that comes from DPJ, Runyan and especially Mason in short yardage. Can you imagine Charbonnet lined up behind Mason in the power-I formation ? I can and it is 100% needed to set the tone at the right time of each game.
Edit - speed in space isn't needed to pick up a critical 4th and 2 yards or punch it in from the 5 yard line. We need to develop a short yardage offense that is effective and that is not out of the gun.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
The short yardage offense was the only part of the offense that was worth keeping! Bring it back!
September 9th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
I agree with everything here except for resetting expectations. We are 2-0. We’ve played two respectable opponents at about 75% given injuries and holding some back on offense.
I will recalibrate after Wisconsin, an actual test for which we should be healthier and more aggressive on offense. If we look like crap in 2 weeks, then reset. I don’t think we will.
September 9th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
In my pre-season expectations, I had us 65/35 beating Wisconsin on the road to build some momentum for a good season (10-2 with a chance for better). Right now too many things are off-track with the offense (injury, short yardage, turnovers) and so I am now 50/50 with us coming home from Madison with a victory. I would be even more worried except that the defense seems to have taken a good step forward and shows a will to win. If we can ride an ascending defense until key guys are 100% that would put me back on pre-season expectations. But I agree, Wisconsin is a biggie and there is still hope for enough improvement over the bye period too get it done.
September 9th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
I'm still not fully buying Wisconsin, the only thing that has really moved the needle for me with them is Cephus. The two teams they have played are atrocious and they play a style of ball that will demolish teams that are inferior on the LOS.
The last time Wisconsin started the season with a margin of victory over 90 points in their first two games, they lost the third game.
Wisconsin has averaged 19 points against S&P Top 20 Defenses under Chryst, scoring over 30 only twice (2017 against Northwestern and 2016 against Penn State). In the 2017 NW game, they got 9 points from their defense. In the 2016 Penn State game they got 7 points from their defense. A Paul Chryst offense alone has never scored 30 points on a S&P Top 20 Defense.
We need to be healthy, we need to be aggressive on offense, and we need to not give Wisconsin turnovers or especially defensive points. We still have the advantage when it comes to talent, speed, and coaching. Our defense should best their offense. Our offense probably needs to get us 28-35 points.
September 9th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
IIRC, you've been posting that Wisconsin is going to regress big time this year. You seem pretty knowledgeable, so I'm interested to see if you're correct - which I think you're probably not. This game is going to tell a lot about both teams.
September 9th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Regress might not be the right word, I just don’t think they’re very good. I don’t like their coach, I don’t think they much speed outside of JT, I don’t think their DBs are good. Does that mean they’re going to go 4-8? No, because they play in the West and their OOC schedule is all cupcakes. I think they’re a 8-4/7-5 team that we should beat.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
Shit... it's going to be a long two weeks if posts like this are going to be the norm until Wisconsin.
This team has been sloppy and suffered from self inflicted wounds, they have not been outplayed in the slightest. They can correct those and with a bye week coming up, it's a perfect opportunity to do so.
September 9th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
You believe the hype