Who Are the Final CFP Four and In What Order
Mates,
Having an overnight to think about it, time to make our predictions. In any normal year a #1 team that gets smoked in their own home state by 17 points doesn't just go to #4, they'd be out of the picture. So good bye UGA unless the SEC lovefest is unbreakable. We all want Michigan as #1, playing Cincy or even ND, but will it happen? A good point was made that even if UGA does make it and 'Bama plays them again in the semi's, that's better than a boring re-do of the SEC title game in the finals. Michigan being #1 with 'Bama and UGA at 2 and 3 accomplishes that and would still set up the likely match of Michigan v. SEC for all the marbles - a ratings blowout.
Anyway, good morning on this bright shiny Michigan Sunday. Pick the 4 and the order, and Go Blue!
XM
December 5th, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^
December 5th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
I really hate this video.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:46 AM ^
Two things are certain:
One: Georgia and Alabama will both be in because ESS EEE SEE.
Two: Michigan will play Georgia in the first round.
The committee is way too cowardly and the "rankings" are too hypocritical for anything else.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
At least Georgia isn't as good as most thought.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
Yeah. I agree that they will be cowards. Georgia was smoked by Bama. They shouldn't be on the field. But they will be. Wish Ok St would have won that game. They should be playing Bama in the semi-,final. I contend that they should prove that they can beat Bama before sniffing the championship. If not, they will be routed again in the championship game. With what I saw in their defense, Michigan has a good shot. Who wants to watch a rematch of Bama-Georgia in the semi final or finals. Makes no sense. They used the same argument to snub Michigan in 2006. I would rather see Baylor or even Utah. Reward the teams that are playing well. not the team that was bullied.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:46 AM ^
1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Cincinnati
4. Georgia.
That is not what the committee will do. But they should. Bama would have lost to Auburn if the Auburn RB had stayed in bounds. Georgia does not have any wins over top 15 teams. Georgia is very good. But 100% for sure Michigan has a better resume than Georgia.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
This is what should happen and I actually think the committee will come out this way. Rewards conference champions, ranks the P5 team with the fewest losses highest, avoids UGA v Bama rematch, and still tells non P5 programs they aren't equal. All-around win for the committee that nobody questions. They could even swap Bama and Cincy if they wanted to reward Cincy for going undefeated and still end up with the same matchups.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
This is what I would do. They won't do it.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:19 AM ^
This probably right. don’t know if they committee will put us one but Georgia was a fraud that beat up shitty teams. What is their best win, Clemson? they shouldn’t be higher than 4 or for that matter why is there no debate between them and ND. Both have equally meh resumes. they should not be higher than Cincy but that would mean putting us over Bama and don’t know if they would do that cause ESS EEE SEE!
December 5th, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
This is my guess. Committee can posture like they’re rewarding Michigan while really just screwing us over to avoid a SEC rematch.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^
- Michigan
- Michigan
- Michigan
- Michigan
- Michigan
- Michigan
December 5th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
I would go to that game.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
But who would you root for?
December 5th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
I just bought this t-shirt to wear to my son's baseball games. This will tell me which parents have a sense of humor and which don't. It would also be my rooting interest in a Michigan Michigan contest. 
December 5th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^
I wish everyone were this level headed.
I've seen awful stuff from parents at little league games - both as a 12-year old Umpiring 5 year olds playing T-Ball - where I had to EJECT a parent for abuse -and now as an adult and parent.
I wanna buy one!
December 5th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
…but what about Michigan forgawdsakes? Don’t they deserve to at least #2?
December 5th, 2021 at 8:51 AM ^
What I think it will be:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati
What it should be:
1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Cincinnati
4. ND
December 5th, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^
Great minds and all…+1 Don. Typing the same thing at the same time
December 5th, 2021 at 9:34 AM ^
Given the accuracy of my predictions for the OSU and Iowa games I don’t think I qualify as a “great mind” but thanks anyhow.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
100%. You are right on both. The committee is to cowardly to do the later.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
Would love another shot at ND! To hell with Notre Dame!
Georgia played a soft SEC schedule to have a previously perfect record. Alabama revealed Georgia for what it is: a second rate one loss team. While Alabama has a sexy offense, their end of season was nowhere as dominant and impressive as Michigan's. Go Blue!
December 5th, 2021 at 9:01 AM ^
Agreed.
Fun Facts: ND at #24 SOS with their loss to current #4 Cincinnati while Georgia has the #49 SOS and their only loss is to current #5 Alabama.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
Agree. It is not like Bama win by 3 points. They were playing B12 FB and Georgia could not stop it. They shouldn't be in the final four. UTAH on the other hand dominated teams in the second half. I can make a case for UTAH. Even Baylor played heck of a game with their backup QB.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
The ND or Georgia thing is difficult. But Georgia has to get the nod...
I am skeptical about rewarding any conference with two slots in the playoff. Putting in Georgia--did not with their conference--just reinforces the idea that the SEC is so far above the rest that they should often get 2 slots. I generally disfavor putting teams that did not win their conference in the playoff. But Georgia has about the strongest case possible for being let in as a team that finished second in their conference.
ND did not even have to play a conference CC game. They chose to not fully join a conference. And they chose to affiliate with the ACC (which is the worst P5 conference). Both choices are choices to avoid a hard schedule.
Between ND and Georgia, I have to choose Georgia for playing an overall harder schedule than ND, and also for playing in a conference CC game. If Georgia did not have to play in a conference CC game (like ND), Georgia would still be an undefeated no. 1 team.
ND's best win is against Wisconsin in South Bend. That is Michigan's 3rd best win (after OSU and Iowa victories). It is not ND's fault that Stanford and USC are terrible right now. But it is ND's choice to play as an affiliate in the very weak ACC and to not schedule Clemson.
December 5th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Georgia and Notre Dame both have equally poor arguments for making the playoff. It's easy to win against poor quality teams week after week. Using the committee's own arguments (for keeping non P-5 teams out of the playoffs in the past):
- Neither was a conference champion.
- Neither has a signature win or even a top 20 win.
- Neither is undefeated.
Looking at them head to head, as a user posted above,
- ND had #24 SOS. Georgia was at #49 SOS.
- Georgia's loss was to a non-godly 11-1 Alabama team that just squeezed by a 6-6 team by 2 in quadruple overtime the week before. Georgia lost by 17.
- Notre Dame's loss was to an unbeaten Cincy team, by 11 points.
- ND's best win is likely 8-4 Wisconsin at a neutral location, 41-13.
- Georgia's best win is likely 9-3 Clemson at a neutral location, 10-3
Picking the top three should be
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Cincinnati
The fourth is harder because there is no clear 1 loss team that deserves it, ahead of 2 loss conference champion teams that do have a signature win vs a top 10 team. In a perfect world Baylor gets spot #4, they've lost by fewer points (12) than Georgia and comparable to ND. They also have two fairly dominate wins over top 15 teams, including #5 OSU.
December 5th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Agree with you on what it most likely will be.
What it should be is:
1. Mich
2. Bama
3. UGA
4. Cinci
ND doesn't deserve to be there. They have 0 wins vs. any current top 25 team and only 3 wins vs. teams with winning records - Purdue, Wisky, & Toledo.
Gone back and forth on this quite a bit but this would be the right thing to do which means they probably won't. Most likely would not want a re-match 2 games in a row for Bama/UGA but they run the risk of having them match up again anyway for the title. This would eliminate one of them. A potential Mich/Bama title game would be the most watched CFB game ever by a landslide.
December 5th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
That's the way I'd do it. The SEC needs to sort out its best team before the final, not in the final. The only way to ensure that is for them to play in the semis. So what if they just played? Tough titty. Hell, I think most of America is sick of Alabama altogether, but they'll still watch. As for Georgia, if they want to advance, they should have to beat the one loss on their schedule.
Agree that if Michigan were to win their semi, the final would set the ratings record.
December 5th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
December 5th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
Should be:
1) Michigan
2) Alabama
3) Cincinnati
4) Notre Dame
will be:
1) Alabama
2) Michigan
3) Georgia
4) Cincinnati
December 5th, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
There is a big difference on what will the committee vote and what it should be. The question is what to do with ND & Cincinnati.
Because Cincinnati did beat ND and in South Bend, I'll give Cinti #4.
December 5th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Question ? You have to put Cincy over ND, They smoked them and went undefeated
December 5th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
ND or Cincinnati is a question? One team is undefeated and beat the other one.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^
Fanduel already has Cincy +14.5 against Bama and UM +9 against Georgia
December 5th, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
Shit I'll take Michigan +9 vs Georgia all day everyday
Theyre just giving away money
December 5th, 2021 at 9:00 AM ^
Early UM/GA line is GA -9. That's ridiculous, considering UM is playing its best football right now, looks like the most complete team in the nation, and GA's heralded defense was proven, on the field, to be a paper-tiger. If Vegas goes GA -9, I am betting my house on UM and the points.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:02 AM ^
Michigan's offensive line gonna wreck that defense.
Overrated.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
The lack of respect for Michigan never ends
Just win!
December 5th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
If that's the line we've got our Disrespekt! (MSU TM) angle. I can see GA anywhere between -3 to -7 but over one touchdown is ridiculous.
Also, screw Vegas, we're gonna win.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
I hate that. Big Money is already creating perceptions. Fuck them.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
What are they seeing to make it +9. I see a mediocre walk-on QB and a Defense that got zero pressure on a weak Bama offensive line.
December 5th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
Come on everybody knows the SEC is so superior to all other conferences! Michigan at best would be 3rd in the SEC west this year!
December 5th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
What the CFP rankings should be: UM #1, Bama #2, GA #3, Cinn #4.
What the CFP rankings will actually be at noon today: UM #1, Bama #2, Cinn #3, GA #4. Then the CFP avoids the dreaded semi-final rematch between Bama/GA.
It's the wrong thing for the CFP to do, the CFP should rank all the teams honestly, and fairness would dictate the CFP ignores potential rematches, but this is the real-world and the CFP wants the best TV ratings matchups because ratings = NCAA $$$.
December 5th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
Georgia shouldn't be in at all. Why should they get 2 chances when most teams don't even get one? Put in ND or Baylor.
December 5th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
But a rematch of GA/Bama in the finals would be far worse. You’re pro ably right about what they will do, but if we’re being fair, there is only one undefeated team. Why is Cincy ranked behind Bama and GA? Because of recency bias with SEC winning. So how to fix it? Let’s put two SEC teams in the CFP to give a super high probability of keeping the NC in the SeC rather than giving a fair shot from different conferences.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^
Should be:
1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Cincinnati
4. Bye
Will be:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati
And if the ESPN talking heads can spare time from worshipping the SEC and Lincoln Riley, they should spend that time pointing out that Notre Dame would have passed Georgia if they had just joined the ACC and won that championship game.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
Ha ha ha. I heard Bye is a good team and has a Heisman finalist.
December 5th, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
Man that’s such a good point! On the flip side, there have been years where ND has gotten in because they benefited from not having to play a conference championship game.
December 5th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^
It will inevitably be Bama, Michigan, Georgia, Cincy.
It should be Michigan, Bama, Georgia, Cincy
If OKSt have managed to win it should be Michigan, Bama, Cincy, OKSt
December 5th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
Wow, I hadn’t thought about that but what an interesting scenario! Georgia got extremely lucky with that last second result in the Big 12! Great callout!
December 5th, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
That’s a great point. The comparison to a one loss B12 champ would’ve been great. ND is basically Georgia with one less game (blah schedule, no great wins and a loss to a top 4 team) but OK state would’ve given them a run. Too bad their offense couldn’t get 1 yard in 7 attempts