What defines "success" for Juwan Howard in Year One?
Following in the footsteps of a legendary coach is never easy - but I have hope and optimism that Juwan Howard will do his very best to deliver. I really do.
While Michigan fans - like most fans, really - are equal parts objective and categorically insane, I wanted to reflect on what would define success for Howard's first year at the helm. I look forward to your insane responses (maybe more than the reasonable ones, you psychos.)
A few that come to mind for me (and they're probably a bit obvious), in perhaps most important order:
1. Re-commit a few de-commits. This, if anything, is a momentum boost from the start.
2. Maintain defensive toughness. This, given Juwan's known prowess for defense, should be a good litmus for whether he's transitioned into the college game well. We don't need to expect a Kenpom #2 team (given Matthews' departure), but a stout showing should be expected.
3. Instill an offensive philosophy that transitions effectively from Beilein's known complex schemes. This includes hiring an assistant that can, uh, provide assistance in this. Staying in the Top 50 Kenpom, given our returning players, seems like a reasonable bar.
4. Keep the APR humming. Any hint of wavering on academic performance will rile up the bluehairs (and, admittedly, me).
5. Keep Crisler rockin'. Michigan's fan support has been unprecedented the past few years - and it's because of the fun, uptempo, high-stakes style of play that Beilein instilled. While winning is everything, Howard realizes what a little bit of flair can bring (cf. Fab Five).
Thoughts/additions/reordering?
An undefeated title run seems reasonable right?
Lowering the bar to the floor so he can just hop over it, eh?
If you're gonna dream, dream big. I'll view Howard's first season a success if he gets Maizen to say something positive.
make the tourney
sign a solid recruiting class (top 15? we should have a big class to fill)
show some player development
find an offensive identity
nailed it - offensive identity might be a bit fluid depending on assistants retained or new and having to mold whatever identity to the current team which has some talented but offensively one-dimensional upperclassmen. but make the tourney, nail a very good recruiting class, and seeing some growth from our young guys will be a great year one, with anything else being gravy.
Did someone say gravy?
Definitely player development. Obviously Beilein developed guys but I'm excited to see what JH can do with a guy like Johns. They are built in a similar fashion and it will be great to see him develop over the next few years. (I thought he would be a good player under Beilein as well but I can see a coach like JH really taking him to the next level.)
Your reference to “JH” is confusing to me. We will need a clear way to distinguish between our two JHs. I say we call basketball JH “JHbasketballforshort” and football JH “JHthefootballcoachabbreviation” in order to eliminate my confusion.
So, JHbbfs and JHtfca?
I'd suggest abbreviating them as JH4 and JH25.
How many slots to fill? 4? 6? Somewhere... in between?
For 2019-2020, I think there are 3 slots to fill - Matthews was the only senior and then you have Iggy and Poole leaving.
Teske, Simpson, and Austin Davis are rising seniors. We'll have at least 3 more slots to fill for the 2020-2021 class, unless one of our rising juniors or sophs blows up and goes pro early.
EDIT:
Per UMHoops, there are 3 spots open for 2019-2020 and expected 4 for 2020-2021
And that is assuming Bajema remains committed. Don't know what will happen if/when an assistant or two depart in the coaching transition now that Howard hiring is official.
Make the tournament and at least win a game or two and finish high enough for a double bye in the B1G Tournament.
Land a McDonald's kid.
Put a Happy Meal on the end of a fishing line?
Creepy, but I laughed.
With that avatar, you're a fine one to be talking about "creepy".
I prefer the McDowell's kid. Dat boy good. mmm hmm.
You forgot... he also has to raise the banners.
Double bye means top 4 in the B1G. That's actually a pretty high bar. Even our wonderful departing coach did not do this with regularity.
Not being terrible would be great. He’s not walking into an experienced or overly talented team. Next year with coach B might have been ugly. Juwan gets a long leash from me.
Assuming no other departures, this team still has senior Simpson, senior Teske, and junior Livers. Throw in a step forward from last year's freshman class and this should be a top third of the B1G team. I really disagree that next year would have been rough anyway.
The offense was frequently nonexistent and we didnt have a deep bench of secondary scorers. Last season would have been awful had our defense not saved the day. We lost most of our scorers and a really solid defender.
I definitely hope they will be good next near. I don’t think they will be, but I’m happy to be wrong.
Simpson wasn't a big scorer but I think you're underrating his play making ability. His assist TO ratio is great. He was quite effective on ball screens. Poole's stats in the 2nd half of the year aren't that good. Iggy was good but not great. No assists. Tended to be inefficient against teams that would just throw defenders at him when he drove. Matthews was just OK offensively.
Matthews was a great defender, but Simpson and Teske are basically just as good. Livers is also a very good defender.
And like the other poster said, we had a lot of freshmen, and it's likely a couple will make significant jumps. Recruiting, who knows, but if we had gotten Wagner with Beilein still here, I would have bet next year's team would be just as good.
Losing Poole and Iggy definitely hurts the offense. But if guys have talent and get good coaching, they improve from year to year. If a few of DeJulius, Livers, Brooks, and Johns step up now that they are getting extra minutes, we might be able to make the tournament. That's the ceiling as far as i can see.
A nonexistent offense that finished 24th in KenPom offensive efficiency but sure it's frequently nonexistent
Yeah I mean sure they'd have bad stretches sometimes (especially against State, ugh), but who doesn't? Those stretches happened sometimes even when Michigan was an offensive juggernaut.
I agree with this. I think Teske benefits from the coaching change greatly. He gets a full season with Juwan and has already been molded into a stretch 5 by JB. I’m very eager to see his post game develop.
That said, I think we will see solid minutes from Brooks and DDJ alongside Z and lots of minutes for Livers and Teske with Castelton sparing them for a few minutes a game/foul trouble. I like Castelton to take a big step forward, and DDJ to show a lot more comfortability and confidence, giving us some solid minutes with a guy who can play 1 or 2. Would be great to see Johns step up this coming season too. I’m confident that next year won’t be THAT bad. I can see us making the tournament and finishing top 4 in the B1G
Losing Matthews, Poole and Iggy and a returning freshman class that underachieved and you really disagree that next year would have been rough? That's part of the reason Beilein bailed...
I tend to agree. I think many of the publicly made reasons were still the primary motivations to leave, but I also think he looked at what was going to happen to his roster this offseason and saw a window closing.
And I think it may end up being a good thing for both him and Michigan. I don't know if Howard will be successful here, and the transition and coaching search may have been more successful if Beilein had made this decision earlier, but it is better to do this now when the program is in a good shape.
I guess so. Idk that I disagree that it wouldn’t have been rough, I’m just pointing out that I’m optimistic this program can still have a good year.
I guess you’d also have to define “rough”. I don’t think we finish at the bottom tier of the conference. I also don’t think we play MSU very closely. I can see us having 20+ wins and making the tournament, and with all things considered I wouldn’t call that rough, I guess?
Ah hell, we’re fucked
A returning freshmen class that underachieved? What a fucking awful take
Is it even considered “underachieving” when it’s the norm for freshman classes coming into JBs system? Honestly, I thought Castelton looked good and I’m stoked to see what he will do this season. If Johns can slow the game down, I’ll be excited to see him step up too. And I think we will see an appropriate step forward for DDJ too
You new around here?
It's not a take first of all, it's kind of a fact.
DeJulius and Johns were expected to contribute and neither looked good.
This is definitely a good foundation for next year and I think the team will perform reasonably well (tournament bound at the very least), but man....
After the Texas Tech game, I remember not even being mad because I thought "this team is a year away anyway" thinking they'd return 5 of their top 6 and of course Beilein.
Now Iggy's gone, Poole's gone, Beilein's gone and its likely that Wilson and Wagner aren't coming. Wild two months.
I agree, this should be a tournament team. I'd love to see him defend home court against State, which will be tough and make the tournament. If Howard makes this team a sweet 16 team, that will be a big win for him and the program. Hoping to see some big recruits for next years class (a couple top 100 with hopefully a top 50 kid).
It's a relatively experienced team, but will need big contributions from 2-3 unproven players.
I think we have some experienced players, but when you lose your 3 leading scorers and have 3 open scholarships, it is hard to call it an experienced team. Is there anyone on next year's team that you trust to go get a basket or create their own shot? I am not sure where the points are going to come from, and that would have been a concern even if Beilein were here. And it is more magnified now with the potential loss of Jalen Wilson and 3 open scholarships.
No the team is both experienced and talented....if the coach can't put it together it is on him let's be honest
Personally I want 1201 to set them
"Don't go to Africa with Warde blarrrrrrrrrgh" seems like a reasonable addition.
We all know that his standard for "Good Enough" won't be known until after it doesn't happen.
If we can get to a place where Maizen is calling for Howard to be fired after one more year instead of the next one, we are probably doing pretty well.
Make the tourney with a decent seeding, there are key components returning with experience.
Show well in recruiting
Maintain a solid defense with some offensive capabilities
Have a smart team that doesn't make stupid mistakes and improves as the season matriculates
NCAA tournament bid would be a success. We lost a ton of talent, but still have some very solid pieces. I’d consider that successful.
What i’m really hoping for is an upset over #1 Sparty which would be amazing for the trajectory of the program.
prove that one JH can win a B1G championship in his first 3 years as a HC.
He’s getting about as good as you can ask for from the 1 & 5. Their defense more than makes up for any limitations they might have on offense. Livers is solid. The rest is kind of unknown. Beilein didn’t walk away from a final 4 team. It was going to be a down year. I think a sweet 16 run would be a success.
lol I read your post wrong the first time and thought it said 'He's getting about a good as you can ask for from the 1 - 5, not 1 & 5. Whatever you were smokin', I was going to ask for some ;)
Agree with your points here for sure.
Recruit the next Fab 5 for 2020.
I'm sorry, but did anyone else see that OP said Beilein had an uptempo, high stakes style of play? Weren't his teams consistently at the bottom of the NCAA in both tempo and turnover rate? That doesn't seem uptempo or high risk at all. In fact, the offense was completely risk averse
The herpes meds must be obscuring his memory and thought process.