What defines "success" for Juwan Howard in Year One?
Following in the footsteps of a legendary coach is never easy - but I have hope and optimism that Juwan Howard will do his very best to deliver. I really do.
While Michigan fans - like most fans, really - are equal parts objective and categorically insane, I wanted to reflect on what would define success for Howard's first year at the helm. I look forward to your insane responses (maybe more than the reasonable ones, you psychos.)
A few that come to mind for me (and they're probably a bit obvious), in perhaps most important order:
1. Re-commit a few de-commits. This, if anything, is a momentum boost from the start.
2. Maintain defensive toughness. This, given Juwan's known prowess for defense, should be a good litmus for whether he's transitioned into the college game well. We don't need to expect a Kenpom #2 team (given Matthews' departure), but a stout showing should be expected.
3. Instill an offensive philosophy that transitions effectively from Beilein's known complex schemes. This includes hiring an assistant that can, uh, provide assistance in this. Staying in the Top 50 Kenpom, given our returning players, seems like a reasonable bar.
4. Keep the APR humming. Any hint of wavering on academic performance will rile up the bluehairs (and, admittedly, me).
5. Keep Crisler rockin'. Michigan's fan support has been unprecedented the past few years - and it's because of the fun, uptempo, high-stakes style of play that Beilein instilled. While winning is everything, Howard realizes what a little bit of flair can bring (cf. Fab Five).
Thoughts/additions/reordering?
You are very generous. There is a difference between "success" and living to fight another day.
Juwan will live to fight another day no matter what. But a true "successful" first year would involve at least a top half Big Ten Conference finish, a first round Big Ten Tournament win, and a first round NCAA win.
Next year's team has some challenges, but if Beilein were still here, that would be the minimum definition of a successful season. It would apply to Juwan as well.
Win em ALL
Hit some three's in big games.
Honestly no reason not to expected a tournament bid in the 3-6 range and compete yet fall short of a Big Ten regular season title. The team was projecting to have a "rebuilding" year next season after losing Matthews, Poole, and Iggy to the draft. However, good senior leadership at key positions and Livers should stabilize the squad for next season. Need some freshman to take that leap and hopefully we can snag a recruit or two.
To be honest, if we miss the tournament then it is a failure. Missing the tourney with the best point guard in the conference (aside from Winston) is not acceptable. People will say it's just his first year, but missing the tourney is not okay at this point in the program's history with a roster like this.
I have a nagging feeling that next year will be tough due to all the departures. I think defense could be good with two of the big three returning but unclear what the offense will look like. We have some good pieces in Z, Teske, and Livers and it’ll be interesting to see how Juwan builds around them. Success to me would be stabilizing recruiting for this year and doing work for next year’s class. Some development from the Sophomore class would be a good sign. Having a bit more clarity about what our identity as a program is going to be moving forward.
As far as results I would say making the Tournament would be a huge success while being a bubble team and just missing would be ok as well. I really think there’s just a lot of unknowns because of the departures and depth issues. Should be good to see how the program develops over the next few years.
Those are a lot of feelingsball goals. My definition of success for next year (and with the preliminary statement that short of a non-monetary scandal, there's nothing he can do next year that would me even vaguely consider a Fire Howard take, it's year zero):
Get Wilson back in the fold, or another recruit of similar ability
Top 4 team in the B1G
Get to at least round of 32 in NCAAs
Bring in a top 15 recruiting class for 2020
Anything more than this (bring in Franz, win the B1G, Sweet Sixteen+, etc) would be considered a resounding success. None of those 4 would have to be considered a bad year, but being that it's a transition year not a particularly meaningful "failure". Some but not all I would consider good enough but I think "consistent top 4 B1G team and consistent out of the first round" should be the floor for this program in the future.
"Bring in a top 15 recruiting class for 2020 "
Given how much talk there's been on how he will be great for recruiting it better be higher than top 15.
I'm not expecting much in the first year,.
I say if we finish top 5 in the B1G that should be considered a success. Also, if we can finish with a top 15 class for 2020 that would also be a success (which shouldn't be too hard considering it's a 5-6 person class)