What defines "success" for Juwan Howard in Year One?
Following in the footsteps of a legendary coach is never easy - but I have hope and optimism that Juwan Howard will do his very best to deliver. I really do.
While Michigan fans - like most fans, really - are equal parts objective and categorically insane, I wanted to reflect on what would define success for Howard's first year at the helm. I look forward to your insane responses (maybe more than the reasonable ones, you psychos.)
A few that come to mind for me (and they're probably a bit obvious), in perhaps most important order:
1. Re-commit a few de-commits. This, if anything, is a momentum boost from the start.
2. Maintain defensive toughness. This, given Juwan's known prowess for defense, should be a good litmus for whether he's transitioned into the college game well. We don't need to expect a Kenpom #2 team (given Matthews' departure), but a stout showing should be expected.
3. Instill an offensive philosophy that transitions effectively from Beilein's known complex schemes. This includes hiring an assistant that can, uh, provide assistance in this. Staying in the Top 50 Kenpom, given our returning players, seems like a reasonable bar.
4. Keep the APR humming. Any hint of wavering on academic performance will rile up the bluehairs (and, admittedly, me).
5. Keep Crisler rockin'. Michigan's fan support has been unprecedented the past few years - and it's because of the fun, uptempo, high-stakes style of play that Beilein instilled. While winning is everything, Howard realizes what a little bit of flair can bring (cf. Fab Five).
Thoughts/additions/reordering?
I am the meds. Obscured thought process is my status quo.
20 wins and a tournament appearance. There's enough talent returning to make the dance, though not nearly enough depth for a serious run.
I'm more of the opinion that Crisler could be a little louder based on the caliber of teams we've had recently. It seems like this season the noise level was way quieter than '13 and '14, but just my opinion I guess. I went to a lot more games this season (as a student) than any other, and part of it might just be that this year's team was a lot less fun to watch than the talent laden teams of beilein past.
FWIW, I googled some random rankings about this topic and the completely unverified and non-legit sources said that M's environment compared to the rest of the B1G is about average, but what do other people think?
Last year's team was a schizophrenic team with plenty of eye-rolling, head-scratching play. Don't expect a crowd to get too excited...with that team's ability to pull a loss out of the jaws of victory.
The 2019-20 team making post season play, of any kind, will define it as being successful. If Howard can turn X and Teske into anything that resembles effective offensive play it will be the new definition of "miracle".
Good defensive coaches have a much better chance of constructing good offensive play-than the other way around. This 2019 team will likely benefit from having a new set of eyes evaluating its talents-and deficiencies. It could well be a "punt" year anyway.
I expect this to be a very interesting year...hoping that "interesting" leans more toward the good and not the bad of it.
Optimism is generally a good thing...thoughtful and realistic is better. Good luck with that.
We struggled against teams that switched 1-5. We didn’t really struggle against anybody else. To act like an offense with X and Teske is toast is ignored the stats and reality. I know JB is an offensive guru, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to crash and burn.
This doesn’t mean we’re going to contend for a conference title or anything. But I don’t think we will be missing postseason play either.
What would be really nice for the stat-gazers to understand is that, on the offensive end, Simpson and Teske benefitted greatly from Brazdeikis and Poole being on the floor. And conversely, Poole and Brazdeikis took it on the chin from Simpson and Teske being on the floor. That is he stark reality.
What will be interesting this year, at least in the beginning, is how the new kids hitting the floor will respond-step up or not. I expect the opponents will, initially, return to paying more attention to X and T-giving the others, not Livers, more space to either catch and shoot or drive...especially catch and shoot. I believe Livers is going to catch the wrath of the opposition defense-and pretty much get shut down.
I understand our offense and personnel and it’s limitations. But even with their limited games, the only teams that shut us down were teams that could switch 1-5. There are only a handful of teams that can do it. I have no illusions we will be setting efficiency records this year. But Teske and X will still be efficient overall in ball screens regardless of the other personnel on the floor (unless we have no 30% shooters from 3, which I doubt). I think our ceiling is very limited based on not knowing who will be able to contribute and what they’ll be able to contribute. Top 10 offense? Definitely not. Top 50? I think that’s very reasonable even with what we do and don’t know.
Im not quibbling that our offense will struggle at times and is not perfect. I’m quibbling with the idea that it will be a miracle for X and Teske to resemble anything close to effective offense.
We will see how effective X and T are with their defenders bellying up to them and two other defenders sagging to cut off any driving lanes-and the fifth denying Livers the ball. There will be two left fairly open. If those two can make the defense pay for strangling X, T and L...then Michigan will stand a chance of being very competitive. If not, it will be a very long season. Personally, I would play zone against this team and watch them wilt-where would the scoring come from-from what is known right now???
They already dealt with sagging defenders whoever one of Iggy, Poole and Livers were not on the floor. Matthews couldn’t shoot and defenders came off him. It is something they are familiar with. But again, I do not think it would be a MIRACLE for them to be effective. Effective does not mean elite or great. Effective is a competent offense. I think we can do that.
Your entire first paragraph is laughably dumb. We won’t have loud crowds because the team had an ability to lose games they should have won? Were we watching the same 30 win team that was 15-5 in the B10, started the season with 17 straight wins, and only lost 1 home game all year competing in arguably the toughest conference in the nation, and lost 3 starters from the previous year, 2 who went to the NBA? That is your “thoughtful and realistic” take? FOH.
No, it's laughably dumb because I had a brain fart and gave it some attention. This whole "crowd influence" thing is the most lame aspect of fandom in sports. The fans don't make a damn bit of difference. I played, coached and officiated a lot of games back in the day...never do I recall a difference-making crowd.
Losing Poole will help since he doesn't know how to play in the offense. Matthews was also bad offensively. The offense has the potential to be more dynamic if we have an assistant who knows what he's doing.
Upset Staee once. The rest is gravy.
Beat Beilein’s win ratio since he makes more $$$$
Shock the World
Well I guess “success” is defined by expectations. And while this program has had back-to-back 30-win seasons, they’re also facing a ton of adversity:
1) Losing their top 3 scorers from last season (after losing 3 of their top 4 scorers each of the last two preceding seasons and 9 starters overall since 2017). That’s a whole lotta production that has to be replaced;
2) As of right now, there’s only one new player signed up to walk through the doors of the Crisler Center to help them do that;
3) Of the 3 players from last year’s 6-man rotation who are coming back, 2 of them so far have been unable to consistently shoot the ball well; and
4) A (completely unexpected) coaching transition from the program’s winningest coach to a first-time head coach who’s also coaching college ball in any capacity for the first time ever. Obviously, it’s still unknown as of now how much turnover will be happening within the coaching staff.
The team was already going to be facing a lot of headwinds even before Beilein announced that he was leaving and a top-50 player decommitted. And unless Wilson and/or Wagner come knocking on Michigan’s door, the “success” of the season will depend heavily upon the development of the freshmen from last season who didn’t do all that much.
However, with so much turnover happening, the “success” will also be based on our confidence level about the years ahead after the season concludes.
Long story short, I guess I would define “success” as: 1) Winning at least one of two against MSU; 2) Making the NCAA tournament; 3) Going to the Sweet 16 for the fourth-consecutive season; and 4) Either a) Wilson and Wagner are freshman this year, b) we have a belief that the sophomores will be able to take over the team as juniors and maintain the program’s winning ways, and/or c) Howard is able to put together a top recruiting class filled with guys who will be able to contribute immediately.
I would also like to see, as OP mentioned, signs that 1) the defense can remain one of the best in the country under Howard, even if Yak leaves, and 2) Howard’s offensive philosophy (whatever that is) will be able to transition to the college game, even if that doesn’t happen immediately.
Outside of the on-the-court stuff, I would also like to see a Fab 5 reunion.
Yes.
Make the NCAA tournament. And sign a great recruiting class.
I don't think the team was going to be very great next year even if JB was still here. Howard may turn out to be a very good coach but they'll still won't have any shooting next year.
I think March Madness maybe winning one game in the tournament could be a success.
#1 should not be part of any expectations. While I think there’s a solid chance that Bajema stays and Wilson re-commits, I don’t think either are having a major impact on next season. Their sophomore years will be when they’re ready for large roles.
2019 class could be a wash for him. Maybe neither Wilson or Bajema like him or want to go to places where they have better relationships than they do with Howard. Not Howard’s fault he was hired this late in the recruiting season. 2020 class has about six months until the first signing day. While I think we could get a solid commit or two, I’m not going to expect him to reel in a massive class full of top 50 players. It’s late in the game. 2021 is when I think we’ll see his recruiting prowess.
Recruiting. Keeping the assistants he wants to keep. Next season is ugly, no way around that. However, building for his first recruiting class and getting his "squad" together to start the upward momentum in 2020 is all we can hope for.
"Be good as basketball" probably also works.
Sweet 16. It’s always the standard and it shouldn’t change.
Some of you are greatly undervaluing the roster he will inherit. Some of you are acting like it’s a rebuild job. There are legit pieces already in place. Just making the tournament isn’t good enough for Michigan anymore. Program is at competing in the tournament!
Just waiting for the posts of “Wait until he gets his guys” if struggles happen
I think you're greatly overvaluing the roster. Simpson and Teske are experienced but limited and Livers will obviously need to score more.
Other than that, you have a freshman class returning that wasn't very good and hopefully 2 good freshmen. This team is not going to be anything special and could struggle to make the tournament. Hopefully we can get Wilson back and him and Bajema are legit and good enough to contribute right away.
Yeah I am not. You are undervaluing this freshman group a ton. I know exactly what they can do and am excited they will be given a chance to perform. There are a ton of Good college programs that would love to inherit Michigan's roster.
And the main thing is already in place, A leader in Simpson!
I agree with this take. Beilein’s offense was complicated and even talented freshmen have taken a year or so to really download it. And last year’s freshmen were competing with pretty good and established guys for playing time. The fact that they didn’t get a ton of playing time doesn’t mean they are busts by any stretch. Anyone remember how much playing time Mo Wagner got as a freshman? Howard has talent on the team right now and I agree that this isn’t a total rebuild.
It's going to be a clunky team. They should be able to physically scrap with just about anyone but I don't see consistent scoring. It may in fact become painful to watch from time to time.We have to rely on hoping that a couple of dudes breakout.
Maybe Caselton looks good and you can run a twin towers offense with him and Teske and UM can out big some teams.
You're undervaluing the freshmen last year, IMO. Castleton showed some real potential as a defender and offensive force of the PnR, and if Howard runs an NBA-style offense he'll slot right in. Johns and DDJ struggled (but at least with Johns was also dealing with a position fit issue), but they were both top-100 guys with a ton of talent.
I deliberately didn’t put “get to the nth weekend of the tournament” because of the uncertainty in both our roster and the propensity for a coach installing a new system to get caught off guard.
I fully expect a rebuild and middle of the pack finish. Too many key losses to the team. Next couple of seasons might be rough.
Do the cabbage patch dance at mid court because something exciting happened. That’s my measure for success.
Turn the program into what he wants culture etc. Don't have to worry about the grades of the players. Beat sparty in Ann Arbor make it to the round of 32 and I forgot win first game of the BTT. Go Blue!
I guarantee Juwan will do his very best to deliver.
Make the tournament, preferably not on the bubble.
As an overall summary, this is about where I land on this question.
He could raise a couple banners by helping the university realize it was a mistake to take down the Fab 5 banners...
My expectations for next year are considerably more tempered from where they were a month or so ago, so I am not expecting a conference title or Final Four contention. But you've got a few guys on this team who have won a lot of games, made some serious tournament noise and played for a national championship. So how I'd define success next year:
-Making the tournament. There's enough talent on this team to do it. From there, anything additional is gravy.
-Continue to field strong defense. If Yaklich leaves I don't expect the defense to be what it was, but Juwan is a defense guy, so I'd think its reasonable to expect the defense to still be fairly stout.
-Offensive identity taking form as the season progresses. I don't expect it to be pretty when the season starts, and we'll probably drop a game or two that we wouldn't have with Beilein here, but that's part of the process. What I'd like to see by February-March is a more cohesive identity, on offense, for what Juwan wants this team to be.
-Play to the strengths of your current team. We know what Z is great at, and what he's not great at. Don't force him, or anyone else, to be something they're not.
-Recruit well. Or if Juwan can't, find some assistants who can.
-This is more on the players than the coach, but I want to see the seniors (specifically Z and Teske) lead the way for the rest of the team. Set the example, and be the foundation for what Juwan wants to build here.
Winning. Same as every other coach at any other school, regardless of sport.
Make the tournament. It’s modest but new coach with key departures. A top five conference finish would be solid
Another sweet sixteen would be a massive success.
So here is the deal. Beilein's last 10 years went 15 wins, 21, 24, 31, 28, 16*, 23, 26, 33, 30. Two five year cycles of building from a low to a National Title, then a slightly less successful year.
Even if Beilein was here, a dropoff would be expected. Not down to 16 again, since dropping that low was due to injury, but definitely down. We lost 3 of 5 starters this year, and it's not like we had a deep team that looks prime to step into those roles.
Year 1 should be a grace period for Howard. Making the tournament should be seen as a success, as long as year two sees a improvements in record and in metrics. Our offensive efficiency shouldn't drop two years in a row. Defense I'd be a little more lenient on, as long as it doesn't drop way down the list. Getting Wilson back into the fold, or Wagner or McDaniels on board would be a great start. If your expectation is to stay at the level we've been at for the past two years, I think you're being unrealistic.
Y1: Big Drop off, Y2: Stagnant, Y3: Hotseat
Y1: Big Drop off, Y2: Positive Trajectory (this should be expectation)
Y1: Wile E Coyote year, Y2: Big Drop off, Y3: Positive Trajectory (acceptable)
Y1: Wile E Coyote year, Y2: No Drop off (Holy Shit Howard's AMAZING!)
Make the NCAA tournament.
A new coach with really important players departing means that would be a successful year IMO. I'll keep my expectations pretty low.
Let's see how he structures HIS program this off season (which is very very short) and how he recruits. I did not expect Michigan to be as good this year anyways after losing the play makers they did. I think it is unfair to judge Howard this upcoming season, however, I do believe Michigan will be fine with him at the helm and especially in recruiting. In fact, I expect his recruiting to be better than JB's eventually. There is a risk involved with hiring anybody, however, Howard's fame (Yes with the Fab 5 at Michigan included), his age, and his connections at the AAU level are all positives for Michigan. Personally, he was always my favorite out of the Fab 5 because of his demeanor and leadership on the court. I was not a fan of Rose and Weber because they seemed entitled, spoiled and talked lots of trash which is not a part of any game I like. I am rooting for him to succeed and touch lots of young lives as they come through the University of Michigan. Welcome Coach Howard and Go Blue!!!
Winning.....
I am trying to stay optimistic, but I think just making the tournament should be considered a success with the current roster (assuming no other additions and Jalen Wilson committing somewhere else).
Michigan's projected Torvik ranking for next year has now dropped to #38 with the current roster and 9th in the Big Ten, below Rutgers. Yes, below Rutgers. Even Beilein would have had some issues next season with the projected roster.
(P.s. this may be the most tempered, reasonable, and thoughtful set of responses to a thread I've seen in weeks. I'm almost proud of this!)
we have a coach so people are less panicked. also, no maizen with another "look what this random internet guy said about Michigan sports ... it matches my opinion so it must be factual and I should post it right away" so ....
Make the tourney. I think the core on this team is pretty good and we should be able to make the tourney in year 1. Get a good recruiting class and try to keep that going in year 2 which is a year we will struggle to make the tourney.
I'd say a top 6 or 7 tournament seed. This team is going to be less talented than the last couple, and I think that would have probably been an unsurprising Beilein result.
Assuming that Jalen Wilson and Cole Bajema will go elsewhere and none of the other expected rotation players leaves, so that the eight-man rotation will include Simpson, Teske, Livers, Brooks, Johns, DeJulius, Castleton and Nunez:
- Hire some top-notch assistants
- Fill the open roster spots with scholarship players who will contribute meaningful playing time
- Get significantly improved play from the rising sophomores
- Maintain positive public and community relations
- Finish no worse than eighth in the Big Ten (Torvik’s projection is for 10-10 record in conference; tied with Rutgers for eighth)
- Post-season play (NCAA, even if it’s for the 12-seed, play-in game and a chance to steal a win in the 5-12 upset special; or NIT Final Four at Madison Square Garden)
- Maintain strong defensive play (KenPom top 25)
- Develop an offensive philosophy that will attract some 5-star recruits
- Get a strong 2020 recruiting class