Vegas says Michigan -3 over Houston, but...
Kenpom says Michigan +2, at least according to the simulator I use. I watched Houston last night, and that Gray kid is legit. I know nothing about SDSU, but unless their defense is really bad, someone is going to need a great job on D on him for us to win this game. I think we pull it out late in a close one, something like 72-69...
EDIT: Someone correctly pointed out below that we are actually 2 point faves on KenPom. I was looking at his simulator as an away game, not a neutral site game. My bad, homies. Regardless, it's gonna be close either way...
March 16th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
I think from Houston's perspective, I'd be worried about this game. You're going up against a top 10 team that just played a really off game. What are the odds they lay two eggs in a row? Not good. I'd be feeling like Michigan was probably going to have an above average game next because that seems to be how the world works. I think we win somewhat comfortably
March 16th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
slow, out of synch, and poor shooting.
MAAR, in particular, looked really off both on both offense and defense.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
Exactly. Regression to the mean favors UM here I think. Plus generally weird/bad game all around from UM. What's the chances UM wins the tip, has their best offensive player trip over his own feet unforced and turn the ball over thus losing the possesion arrow all in the first three seconds happen a second time?
March 16th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
So dont assume a bad game begrts a good one.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
After he totally coughed up the conf. championship game, he was due for a career performance.
I'm guessing he shot his loaf last night. Tomorrow he will likely be unleavened.
Blue 88 bun-boi and fellow cougars 68
March 16th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
and the way they defended that last play was coaching malpractice!
March 16th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^
I mean, he's real good. And Houston is a real good team. They can definitly beat UM. But good god, that was an heroic individual effort that resulted in a 2 pt win against a team in the same range as Maryland. When I look at things like this, I tend to think about sustainability and regression to the mean. He's a 35% 3 shooter who went 4-6 in that game. He took 25 shots and finished above his average in 2pt shooting. Is that going to sustain? Against Simpson and UM's defense? It could, but probably not. At the same time, I don't think their 43% 3pt shooter will go 0-5 either. But UMs really good at running people off the line and he is totally Just A Shooter.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
The stuff you find in a dumpster fire.
luvit
March 16th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
their offense was perimeter shooting, nothing down low
March 16th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
We watched the same game.
Literally everything SDSU did was attacking the rim.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
The parallels are uncanny. UM won by 15 in an uninspiried game where Trey Burke stunk against a KenPom team in the 90's. The next game was against the 18 ranked Kenpom team that everyone loved but was a bad match up against UM...
This year, UM wins by 14 against a Kenpom 70's team in an uninspired game then face the 18 ranked Kenpom team that everyone seems to love but is probably a bad match up against UM...
March 16th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
I mean stay out of foul trouble. Simmons was very helpful with his drives in the first half, but defensively it is no comparison and Brooks is probably not as good as Simmons on D. Eli's one basket di come at a good time though.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
It seemed like the SDSU offense missed some makable 3's as well as drives to the basket near the end of the game. I was thinking that the Wolverines would be playing SDSU tomorrow night when there was about 10 minutes left in the game.
I definitely agree with the above sentiment. Fouls on Z and maybe Moe are the biggest concerns. Maybe cold shooting by M overall. Otherwise, I expect Beilein to direct a solid game plan.
I think that's who SDSU was; they were a bad offense that just couldn't make shots all season until the end and then had a hot streak.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Cinderella always struggles with games around midnight! Michigan will win comfortably and gray will be pulling his hair out by midnight
Let me see if I've got the sense of mgoblog from yesterday:
Michigan beats Montana by 14, and it was a horrible game that they were lucky to win.
Houston barely escapes against the national powerhouse "SDSU", and could have lost the game on a final shot, and they are unbeatable.
I'm not seeing the logic, somehow.
Rob
Let me see if I've got the sense of mgoblog from yesterday:
Michigan beats Montana by 14, and it was a horrible game that they were lucky to win.
Houston barely escapes against the national powerhouse "SDSU", and could have lost the game on a final shot, and they are unbeatable.
I'm not seeing the logic, somehow.
Rob
I’ve figured out your game Mr. Man Bun.
number one threat. Problem is ... we have many threats that need to perform after getting the kinks out last night.
M should be fine if they can keep Z out there. Montana's guards couldn't get any penetration once he was put back into the game.
If they some open looks, keep doin' their thing defensively, and stop throwing the ball to the other team on fast breaks, and Houston shouldn't be much of a problem.
Somebody just slip Kelvin Sampson a bunch of recruits phone numbers just before tip-off and he'll spend the rest of the game on the phone.
Moe had a mullet!
Mullet vs manbun