Tournament chances discussion
After Atlantis I’m sure none of us thought we would be in this position but here we are. I’m of the opinion that we need 19 wins to get in. That would mean 9-11 in conference with a win in the B10 tourney, which would give us a 19-14 record. I think anything less and we are probably on the outside looking in. Michigan is currently Kenpom #27. Here is a look at the remaining schedule with Kenpom rankings.
-vs #26 Rutgers (“home” game at MSG. Uggh)
-vs #13 OSU
-vs #8 MSU
-@ #118 NW
-vs #41 IU
-@ #26 Rutgers
-@ #24 Purdue
-vs #31 Wisconsin
-@ #13 OSU
-vs #129 Nebraska
-@ #10 Maryland
We need 6 more wins I believe. Need to win home games vs Rutgers, Wisconsin, IU, Nebraska, road win vs NW and then steal one more game. Not gonna be an easy task. Especially with Livers status unknown.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
None. Move on to next season.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
Hope to not see you there. The worst part about the basketball team's success is that it's brought the doom and gloomers over from the football crowd.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
Yes remember when people wanted Beilein fired like 3 years ago. There were some people who write for this site already talking about replacements at that time. Basketball is weird. They have mostly lost close games, they need to grab a couple road wins and they will be comfortably in. They have played a hard schedule. Have beaten a top 5 team on neutral floor. And UNC is starting to round into form.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^
Am I supposed to hold onto this false hope that this team is going to somehow change their current trajectory just like that? The best player on the team reinjured himself. Most likely will be out for a lengthy duration of time. On top of that, our Senior PG was hit with a suspension...how long, no one knows. Michigan is getting very little help from the bench. Nunez cant make a shot to save his life. Cole was replaced by a walk-on. Castleton...you never know with him.
Please explain to me what I said was inaccurate. Also, please tell me how this team just turns things around on a dime with the defects already mentioned. Before you say Michigan has done it in the past, remember, John Beilein was the head coach. We have a new coach with zero history of being able to rally the troops.
I know you want to fanboy this up and show your outright support for the team, which is fine and dandy and should be encouraged, but I'm not going to live in this "head in the sand" type of mentality.
I'm sorry I didn't join you in your group think, where other views are discouraged, but the facts are what they are.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
"Please explain to me what I said was inaccurate. " -- The part where you say "none" as if this team has a 0% chance of making the tournament. That is "inaccurate".
January 30th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
What is the correct percentage chance of Michigan making it?
I'll take the Under.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:19 AM ^
Can we take the under on you?
January 30th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^
Welp from the way the season started, it sure went south quick. Why couldn't it turn around just as quick? Well maybe not "just as" given the Livers injury.
It's all down to hitting shots. We were hitting them like crazy in the beginning...unsustainably. Now we're missing....also on what I would hope is an unsustainable level. Get back to the middle somewhere and you win a few more of the last 5 games.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
If you want to give up on a team that has given us so much joy this past decade, go ahead. Just keep that shit to yourself. These players/coaches don't deserve for fans to give up on them, that's for sure.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
You sound pathetic.
January 30th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
All your posts seem to be about how your self-esteem is damaged by a sports team losing, and now you're calling someone else "pathetic"?
January 30th, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^
If my self-esteem was predicated on Michigan athletics, I would have gladly joined Kobe on his helicopter.
January 30th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
Michigan athletics are probably the #1 in the country the past 5 years. People complain because uofm seems to be very good, but not win the title in the end. But seriously. Look at the last 5 years of football and basketball, no one can match that. Add all the other sports and uofm is literally the best athletic department in America.
January 30th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
Here's a fact for you. In 2017 we were 8th in the conference and on the wrong side of the bubble and ended up in the sweet 16 (and a hard-luck miss from Walton away from the elite 8) and in the finals the next year. Yes, right, that was under Beilein. I'm sure you weren't one of the naysayers back then. /s
It's true that JH has "zero history of being able to rally the troops". Of course, it's equally true that he has zero history of not being able to rally the troops. You may turn out right in the end but stop trying to dress up your emotion as logic. And stop getting butthurt when people call you out for it.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
With the strength of the B1G, I would still think 18 wins would work. The B1G tourney will be of utmost importance this year and hopefully, Livers is back in full-form in time for that.
Edit: Also, this program has a pretty good track record in the B1G tourney and this team specifically has shown they can win in tournament-style games where you don't get extra days to prep.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
I’m not sure 18 wins would get us in. That would mean either 8-12 in conference with one win in the B10 tourney (18-15 record) or 9-11 with a first round loss. (18-14). No team has ever made the field as an at large with 15 losses.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
This season is also very strange with no real "best" team. The parity is extra strong this season and in this case, that 15-loss bubble team would be coming from the best conference and would be the only team to beat the likely #1 team in the country by season's end (assuming Gonzaga doesn't lose again).
Also, 8-12 in conference with one B1G tourney win would be 19-15, not 18-15...
January 30th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Nope. 8-12 would put us at 17-14 entering the B10 tournament.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
This is not remotely true. Florida received an at-large bid with a 19-15 record just last year. Additionally, Ohio State got in with a 19-14 record. Both teams were 10 seeds, meaning they didn’t even have to play in Dayton for the First Four.
January 30th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
Ok. Well I went looking for most losses for an at large team and the article I saw said 14 losses was the most any team has had. But it was written in 2018. So Florida was probably the first and only to get in with 15 losses. Regardless, if we go 8-12 in the big ten, that would leave us at 17-14, and needing at least 2 wins in the tourney to at possibly have a shot. But I wouldn’t feel comfortable at 19-15.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:09 AM ^
Or we can get hot for the Conf. tournament, we've done that before.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
I think winning 7 more regular season games is doable (not likely, but reasonable chance), and would make us a lock. I worry about the B1G win bc I think we’ll end up getting a bye.
I’m thinking this is where we can get 7 wins:
- 2/3 of Rutgers, OSU, MSU (tough ask, but 2 home and 1 neutral site)
- Must win 2/2 home vs IU and @ NW
- Win 1/2 @Rutgers or @Purdue (another tough ask, but these teams are beatable and officiating has evened out a bit)
- must win at home vs wisco
- must win at home vs Nebraska
that’s 7 wins. Certainly not likely the way the team has played of late, but well within their capability. Opportunity for 8 if they can win @OSU (maybe with Livers?) or take all 3 of the next 3...
January 30th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
I think this is about right. Evidence doesn't support this, but I still feel about Rutgers basketball like I feel about Indiana football. Scary games, but until Michigan actually loses one I will assume that they will win.
If this team can get its full roster and find a way into the tournament, I think the sky can still be the limit. There is no dominant team out there, so I wouldn't necessarily feel that bad being an 8 seed coming up against say #1 seed SDSU or Baylor.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
We're due for one of those games that we shoot the lights out. I can see us getting that done at least once at home.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
L -vs #26 Rutgers (“home” game at MSG. Uggh)
W -vs #13 OSU
L -vs #8 MSU
W -@ #118 NW
W -vs #41 IU
L -@ #26 Rutgers
L -@ #24 Purdue
W -vs #31 Wisconsin
W -@ #13 OSU
W -vs #129 Nebraska
L -@ #10 Maryland
18-12, win a game in the Big Ten tourney 19-13 and we're a 9 seed.
Win 2 games in the BTT and 20-13 and we're a 7 seed.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:25 AM ^
Your math is off there Jimmy. We already have 8 losses.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
The sentiment is still the same though. 19-14 gets us in.
January 30th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
This scenario looks good to me. The Atlantis wins really help the cause. Plus, a great SOS overall. Can't compare to previous B1G low seeds of the past to get into the big dance. Got to have at least one B1G tourny win, though to end the season.
January 30th, 2020 at 1:49 PM ^
(“home” game at MSG. Uggh)
Our NY fans are actually pretty good/vocal. Granted, they also will have some fans there.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
I think you need to plan on beating OSU at home, especially if Simpson is back. OSU's KenPom rank does not line up with their recent performance. Beating MSU at home would be huge, but seems unlikely. I would say @Rutgers and @Purdue are chances to steal one, depending on the composition of UM's roster at the time.
Also, for all the consternation about the neutral Rutgers game, assuming Michigan can win the game (big assumption) it is actually better for their resume for it to be a neutral.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
We're a Baseball School...
January 30th, 2020 at 1:19 PM ^
What happens if we don't match the 2019 baseball standard? Will we then be a softball school? How about a swimming or track team school. It never ends...
January 30th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
This team is better than this and is much better than it has been playing, which is why this is so frustrating. They've dug themselves a major hole and they'll have to fight hard to get out.
I'm not as frustrated about this MSG game as most mgobloggers are. Michigan hasn't exactly been lights out at home, especially lately, but they've been great on neutral floors the last few years. Hopefully the NY/NJ alums can turn it into Michigan Square Garden once again.
This team just needs to settle down a little and gain some confidence. If they can knock off Rutgers they might be able to poach one from Michigan State or Ohio State next week, fingers crossed.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^
I think they need both. If they can beat Rutgers, they will have quite a bit of momentum coming home. I think the at-large tournament chances depend on getting a sweep of OSU and MSU at home. They travel to some difficult venues on the back end of the schedule. That would be huge to get those games.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
there is almost zero chance we beat msu w/o livers.
January 30th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
It's unlikely, for sure. Some players who have shot very poorly would need to get really hot, but they are going to start making shots at some point. We will see a few games this season where Brooks/Wagner/Johns will all make the shots they have been missing. I don't see it continuing as a trend, but it will happen. Hopefully that two game stretch will be it.
January 30th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
Yeah I'm hoping for even an average shooting performance from some of these guys one of these days. In some cases this team doesn't necessarily need someone to get hot but someone to get warm or at least room temperature. They've been ice cold! But I like to think that can't possibly last forever, even though it seems like we say that every time. One shot here and there can make a difference but if the shots aren't falling I would like to see them adjust in other ways. Here's to hoping it starts getting better from here!!
January 30th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Current status of Simpson and Livers makes this a huge stretch to 19 wins.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
Is there any word at all on Simpson yet? Is he practicing?
Livers seems to be out a few weeks, we have no idea on Simpson.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
The Simpson deal is a bit puzzling. Howard announced it as a suspension open-ended, won't travel to Nebraska for sure. I believe the AD then said it was a one-game suspension, after which Howard said something to the degree that "we will reevaluate and see where things stand" after the Nebraska game.
If it were some kind of criminal infraction DUI, etc., I think we would know by now. Missing a curfew, shoot-around, etc. would just a one gamer, if that, and certainly would not have to be "re-evaluated."
I am not saying this to begin the hot take rumor mill, but it would seem that the most likely scenarios would be some kind of altercation with a teammate or a flat dismissal of coaching directives that accumulated over time. Whatever it was, it was likely fairly significant. Howard doesn't seem like one who would pull the trigger quickly on a suspension. He once simulated defecation on the spartan S and had no ramifications from his coach, so I don't think he comes from the school of tough-love.
January 30th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
" Whatever it was, it was likely fairly significant. Howard doesn't seem like one who would pull the trigger quickly on a suspension. "
Totally.
This is a guy used to massaging NBA player egos, who was part of a trash talking brash revolution in college basketball as a player. He isn't Polly prissy pants who is going to suspend a guy for having his shirt un-tucked.
This was likely some sort of insubordination if I had to guess.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
Anyone going to MSG? I’m pondering it right now.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
Have been looking, but decent tickets are not available at a realistic price. And MSG is really poor venue up in the nose bleed seats.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
I think they may make it in but just barely. Maybe only two more gimmies on that schedule. Maybe.
What I'm hoping is that we find out the Big 10 is indeed a meat grinder and they end up being a tough out in March Madness. Perhaps winning one game, and maybe two if Livers can make it back.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Borderline. Kinda hoped, with Livers out, someone would seize the opportunity. Maybe this will still happen to get us over the hump.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
I could see one of Wagner or Johns taking another step. I think Johns is the more likely of the two. He is physically there already and has shown flashes of a multi faceted game.
I think for this season Franz is likely what he is going to be. He is just pretty limited from a strength and physicality stand point. I also think the decision making and turnover issue simply needs more time and experience. But if he could start shooting in the 35% range from 3 that would really go a long way.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
Its likely we will need to win at least one and maybe 2 big ten tourney games to get in, which is in line with a number of Beilein seasons before anyone gets into a huff about Howard.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
I played this game yesterday in my head and figured that with the strength of the Big Ten and the strength of Michigan's non-con schedule (win over Gonzaga looms large), that 18-13 regular season record should be enough. The easiest path to getting there is I think: win the next 2 games vs Rutgers and OSU, @NW, vs IU, vs Wisconsin, and vs Nebraska.
If they get to 18-13 by beating either MSU or Maryland, then I think it's guaranteed that they get in.
And as much as I love KenPom, keep in mind that the NET Ranking is where the committee's focus will be. Michigan is currently 34th. If they go 18-13, I can't see them slipping below 40th in the NET. Top 40 in the NET will get them in as an at-large.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
Just win big ten tournament, automatically in...