Thoughts On Preseason Hype and Rest of Big 10
There is a lot of preseason hype on Michigan this year and it seems to be consistent across the board from several sources. Even more surprising is the fact that former Ohio State coach, Urban Meyer gave a positive account of Michigan stating that he expected the defense to not be a problem for them this season I thought this was significant coming from the coach who just a few months back completely embarrassed Don Brown's defense. As a lifelong Michigan fan, I am excited for the season to begin, however, I am cautious on my expectations for this team for several reasons and the defense is one of them. This is especially true if the new offense is keeping them on the field more. Michigan also plays a very difficult schedule this year even if the tougher games are scheduled at home. How does everyone else feel about this? Is the hype warranted at this point?
Yes.
Maybe.
Simian.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Seems like it's going to be a down year for a lot of teams in the B1G. Win The Game and the conference title seems ripe for the picking.
I mean there are 7 B1G teams ranked in the preseason coaches poll. You have half the conference considered by their peers to be among the top 25 teams in the country heading into the season. The SEC has 6 by comparison. 6 of those 7 are considered top 20. Meaning we have 35% of the top 20 teams? I’m not sure how it really seems like it’s going to be a down year for a lot of teams. That doesn’t seem to be the consensus opinion from outsiders.
The top two are Michigan and Ohio. Penn St and Wis are at 14 and 17 respectively. Personally I think both are based on previous performances and not their current situations. Penn St is out of its wily coyote hovering over a cliff year on offense with Moorhead's momentum fading and replacing a ton of talent on offense to boot. Wisconsin doesn't have a QB and while Jonathan Taylor is a dude, i don't know if he can carry an offense by himself. Then you have Iowa, State, and NW in the 20-25 range, none of which seem very scary.
Not saying it'll be a cakewalk, but the East in particular doesn't seem nearly as daunting as in recent years.
August 4th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
You still have to go on the road to play Wisconsin. On the road to play Penn State. MSU is a team that will play us close like they do every year. Iowa is no slouch. They return a lot of their pieces as well as one of the best defensive players in the country. Northwestern gave us fits last year and I firmly believe they upgraded at the QB position.
“Wisconsin doesn’t have a QB,” is an odd take. We really don’t know much about their QB situation, but they have the /#65 overall recruit from last year’s class and by all accounts hes a major upgrade over Hornibrook in terms of arm talent, it’s just a question of whether or not he handles the mental aspects well at this stage in his career. All of it was enough to encourage Hornibrook to transfer.
Youre also ignoring a lot of the flaws in Michigan. We’re breaking in a brand new offense, our RB situation is... questionable. And we replace the better parts of our defense. We have a few question marks on this team too.
I really don’t see how you can say it looks like these teams are looking to have down years when the issues that they look to be having aren’t at all different than the issues Michigan is having. It’s definitely not as easy of a path to a conference title as you’re making it out to be.
No. We've seen this movie before.
10-2. Lose The Game. Play Florida in the Krispey Kreme Dollar Store Citrus Bowl. Those are my expectations.
Too many eucalypti leaves today?
He is still upset about paying the money to the person in the bathtub this morning ...
If 10-2 is the case with OSU loss, we will probably be in the Rose and beat Washington!
OSU gets rolled by 5 TD by Clemson.
At least someone can roll OSU... I’d rather we beat them for once than watching Clemson or Bama beat them.
The pessimist in me says:
- lost a lot on defense
- new offensive systems take a little time to get going
- potential gap at RB
- our Novembers and after seem to suck
- I’ve seen this movie before
on the other hand:
- Shea is very solid and knows this kind of offense
- great WR depth
- solid O Line
- Don Brown
- rest of the B1G has holes too
So.... cautiously optimistic but I won’t really believe it until we’re hoisting trophies. And at this point a ranking somewhere between 10-15 is a plausible starting point.
Raise my expectations, then shatter my expectations. That's my expectation.
Fortunately, it's a pattern that most of the bigger programs regularly suffer, so I can live with it.
Up to a point.
I would prefer it if we don't make the playoff we don't play like we don't give a crap in the Huggies Gen Alpha Bowel or wherever we end up.
I know some worry about Army. But I think our first real test comes at Wisconsin. Start 3 - 0 and look to be getting better every game and we could be on to something.
I don’t believe Wisconsin Is a test. We are much better than them. That game reminds me a lot of @ northwestern last season......oh wait.
A successful season depends on an expected osu regression under a non legendary coach as much as anything Michigan does
I do not agree that OSU needs to regress for Michigan to win. With your logic the Patriots depend on the other NFL teams to sink in coaching or talent in order from them to go the distance. The patriots win with Coaching, scheme and talent. But I see one other ingredient exists with the team and fanbase, they believe they can win based on themselves. They prepare, the coaches scheme and from Brady down, the teams believes they can and will win. The talk in the playoffs isn't, oh boy I sure hope the Stealers have a bad game.
That didn't give them 6 super bowls. I think OSU lives rent free in too many fans heads. I refuse the thinking that they deserve anything. We have the coaching, we have the talent and I think, we have the scheme on both sides of the ball. If they can play as a unit the sky is the limit. JH has an 82% win rate with the rest of the big. OSU will fall victim to the persistence of Brown and Harbaugh. This team needs a hungry, sick em attitude. Not some awestruck view of an unbeatable blowhard team in Columbus.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
Gonna go on a limb here and say that Michigan is not as good as the patriots.
Urban Meyer saying that Michigan's defense is really good like it has been every year after putting 60+ points on it could be construed as another way of saying his offenses are REALLY FREAKING GOOD EVERY YEAR.
Subtle brag, that statement of his.
That and a subtle troll job too. Now that he’s a talking head he can gas up Michigan with zero risk. Michigan does well and he predicted it (with the built in caveat that the success comes after he stepped down). Michigan doesn’t do well and he laughs to himself. Win-win for Urban. That’s my new least favorite rhyme.
I prefer Liar-Liar, Urban Meyer
If Urban were still coaching we would have no hype
I don't worry about how good or bad other league teams are. Win the game and move on. This is Michigan fer godsakes.
Michigan, the team that beat OSU once in the last 15 years?
I'm just as concerned about the 11/23 game @ Indiana as I am about Army. Trap game if there's ever been one, being that it falls between the Staee and OSU games
Please, somebody, anybody--- tell me why I shouldn't be concerned!
IU is a trap game every single year because it seems to come before the Ohio St game every single year. We have barely escaped recently. Some day we’re going to actually lose to them and I will have to go into the witness protection program to avoid my brothers in law.
I'd trade a loss to IU for a win against OSU.
Not.
Even.
Joking.
August 4th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Ohio State does this almost every year. Last year they lost to Purdue and almost blew it vs Maryland and Nebraska. Problem is Indiana’s offense is similar to OSU’s (at least it was) if we struggle against Indiana that’s a huge canary in the coal mine for OSU
Because Indiana hasn't beaten us in like eleventy bazillion years. Feel better now?
That just means they're due.
I am as optimistic as evenyoubrutus is pessimistic.
I really think the offense will be lights out this year and crucially that we'll be able to come back from any deficit in any game.
I think we go 14-1. The only reason we won't win it all is because it's still Michigan, and heartbreak comes with the brand.
August 5th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
"heartbreak comes with the brand". I don't think truer words have ever been written on this blog. Well done. So true, I tell everyone that part of being a Michigan fan is knowing you'll win a lot but rarely ever win the big one.
I think the hype probably is warranted. Having a really good O-line does a lot of amazing things for your whole team. Plus, I think Gattis' new offense will hit stride earlier than one thinks because: 1) O-Line; 2) Patterson knows RPO's; and 3) 3 NFL receivers. Plus, I think Christian Turner is way under-rated. On defense, we will have blips, but they will still be excellent. And when we give up points, Gattis will get them back. On the other hand, the schedule is actually rather difficult. I say 10-2, with the loss at the white-out and one other miscellaneous game. The white-out is hell. Notre Dame will be the game of the year (I am road-tripping up for it with my boys!) and we will beat the tar out of tOSU. We win the B1G, go to the playoffs, beat a Clemson team that has literally played no one up to that point, and get hammered by an angry Bama in the championship.
I'm not saying that @PSU won't be tough, or even possibly an L, but I think too many people are overhyping the white out aspect. Yes they stole one from OSU there, and whooped us a couple years ago, but that PSU team would have destroyed that Michigan team anywhere. They actually have a losing record in white outs, and Franklin is still an awful coach who has been thoroughly embarrassed by Harbaugh teams 3 out of 4 years.
Barkley, McSorley, Gesicki, and Moorehead won't be there for them this year.
I think the hype is also warranted for many of the reasons you list. Another big factor for the warranted hype is that if not us in the top 10, who takes our place? Outside of Clemson/Bama, everyone has holes and question marks. Just look at Osu. They have talent for days but Justin Fields is a huge question mark. He didn't play much last year and when he did, he didn't look all that great.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
How do you possibly know what Justin Fields looked like last year? I'd venture to guess you watched between 0 and 2 Georgia games, and if you just half-assed glanced at Fields' season stat sheet (27/39 for 328 yards passing, with 4 TDs and 0 INTs, plus 42 carries for 266 yards and another 4 TDs on the ground), you'd think he was really good. So what are you using to formulate this take?
Yes...the hype is warranted...unless it's not.
With respect to the offense keeping the defense on the field...I don't necessarily buy that this will be bad for the defense. If the offense scores a lot...that puts a lot of stress on the opponent's offense to also score...which may cause them to abandon their game plan and/or make mistakes. Also...the spread can be run with rhythm and tempo...it doesn't have to always be light speed.
It’s a great point and largely the reason our defense hasn’t forced many turnovers under Don Brown. Due to our anemic offenses the past few years, the defense has had to play “perfect.” This has meant “conservative” or “safe” in many cases, not wanting to give up any big plays.
With a very good offense that is scoring, I have no doubt the defense will give up more points. I also think we will see more turnovers and points scored off turnovers this season. I’m hoping for an ‘06 type defense with Uche playing the LaMarr Woodley role and Dwumfour as Alan Branch.
Michigan forced quite a few turnovers last year...at least that's what I recall.
I think our defense will be just fine. Gary really did not play like a first round pick last year. I think Paye will actually have a better year then Gary did last year. Loosing Bush will hurt but think we will still be solid with Ross. Secondary will be good I would expect a top 15 defense. Offense should be better this year. No reason not to win at least 10 games this year
August 3rd, 2019 at 11:25 PM ^
Michigan has gone 10-3 with Jim Harbaugh every year except the one where they were down to their 3rd string QB. The floor is 10-3 this season. Both Dylan and Shea are better QBs then any of the 3 guys who started a game in the season that Michigan went 8-5. Michigan almost went 10-3 with a guy who is 4th string on the current roster and a guy who would currently be 5th string on this roster.
I’ve been a fan for 40 years and can tell you Michigan’s best teams always fared best with the least hype.
+1 for underrated and truth.
I agree. I remember in 1997 that Michigan was never even hardly discussed in the preseason and actually was ranked #14 prior to the Colorado game if I am not mistaken.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
My first semester at Michigan the team was ranked # 1 in the preseason, and of course we lost the first game @ WI!
West East
1) Wisky 1) UM
2) Iowa 2) OSU
3) Nebraska 3) PSU
4) NW 4) MSU
5) Purdue 5) Maryland
6) Minny 6) Indiana
7) Illinois. 7) Rutgers
umbig11, is there a different vibe in the building this year? Seems like several of the past years there's been optimism, but this year feels different. Is it that Meyer isn't at OSU, we just have all the pieces finally falling in place, or a combination? Thanks for all of your insight.
I seem to recall umbig being EXTREMELY optimistic last year.
Until the notre dame game