TCU Killer Frogs Preview pt 2
The TCU Killer Frogs blog team released their part 2 of the preview today (at least it hit spotify today). The previously previewed the TCU offense vs our defense and this was M Offense vs Defense. No link, find it where you find all podcasts. Here's my summary of their thoughts:
- Like the part 1 preview, they seem to think TCU is just much faster than us and anyone else in the Big 10. They think their speed will allow them to disguise some coverages and confuse JJ.
- They believe they will stop either the run or the pass and keep the rest in front of them. They think we'll get tired out and eventually start making mistakes.
- No discussion of our offensive line other than we're good at running.
- They feel disrespected. They don't think Michigan will have a single new play or a game plan for TCU and we'll just try to bully-ball them all day. They compare the game (and media storylines) to the TCU/Wisconsin Rose Bowl in 2010. They beat Wisconsin (21-19) by stopping the physical run game.
- They have a lot of faith in their coaching. They think we won't do anything and their coaches will download our entire playbook and scheme for us.
- They think OSU isn't fast so that's not comparable to their super fast defense.
They really didn't have many concerns about stopping us. They referenced how they schemed for Texas and shutdown Bijan Robinson. They only concern I heard was that their LBs better fill gaps properly or we'll run all over them. All 4 predicted TCU wins and 2 of them thought it wouldn't be close.
Nothing very inciteful but it's content.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
Homer Simpson is my favorite homer…these guys not so much.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
I sure hope our players see this, talk about a bunch of overconfident buffoons.
How about them slow ass Buckeyes and their shitty skill guys, especially the WR's.
Also, it's hilarious about the part where we tire out, they're really not paying attention.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Well…pretty sure the guys in the preview aren’t coaching or playing, but whatever provides extra motivation…
December 27th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I'd say that's pretty inciting.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
I'm saying it won't incite our team to play harder because it's so generic. Also i fucked up while typing in a hurry before a meeting. My bad.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I'd say that " All 4 predicted TCU wins and 2 of them thought it wouldn't be close." is quite inciteful.
December 27th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
One can understand their predictions if they think this UM team is comparable to 2010 Wiscy. Harbaugh RPS >>>>> Bielema RPS & JJ >>>>> Scott Tolzien & UM WR/TE > WI WR/TE. OL and RBs are probably comparable.
December 27th, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^
Don't forget that 2010 TCU's defense (#1 in the country) is >>>>> 2022 TCU's defense (middle of the road)...
December 27th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
And they seem weak against the run, in particular.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
Lol. No I want to see a long bomb to Wilson when he burns a guy badly. I want to see another cj TD where he turns a guy around so bad he ends up 20yd away from the catch. And I want to see edwards with another couple of long TD runs where he pulls away from their secondary.
They might actually be fast, but they aren’t a faster team than OSU, or even maybe PSU. And, as OSU found out, straight line speed does not necessarily translate to football speed.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
Angelique just mentioned on Twitter that Olu was in a boot. At least that’s what my kid said cause I don’t do social media. I sure hope Harbaugh has half the team wearing boots as some Coach voodoo and this isn’t true.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
December 27th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
He did an interview, about this very topic. He's good to go.
Read this:
December 27th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Good news. They’ve got a mountain of a man at nose and we for sure need to introduce him to Olu. Granted he’s a freshman, but a big one none the less.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
I found this on the Internets...
Edit: I guess I need to learn to type faster :-(
December 27th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
As presented, those observations are by definition "inciteful."
Thanks, though.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
What was their score prediction?
December 27th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
31-21 (we score in garbage time to make it this close)
24-13
23-21 (the guy predicted a punt return TD for TCU)
34-27
December 27th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
This is just lunacy. If you want to say they'll beat us 45-42, that's one thing. But their four predictions hold us to 27, 21, 21 and 13 points?!?
TCU only held Texas (which was impressive) and 1-11 Colorado to 13 or fewer points, yet one of their guys thinks they hold us to 13?
TCU gave up 24+ in 9/13 games, and 28+ in 7/13. They all think we'll be held under 28, and 3/4 think we'll be held to 21 or less? When we're averaging 40+ per game, having been held to 19 once against the ~#1 defense in the country when we were severely shorthanded, with our next lowest totals being 27 (another top-5 defense) and 29?
These guys are going to have a rude awakening in four days...
December 27th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Was about to say the same thing as Shadow here. If they think their offense is that good, fair enough. but I see no grounds for them thinking their defense is better than average, and Michigan's offense hasn't really been stopped this year except by Illinois
December 27th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Going to add a little bit more color to this. We're the best offense TCU will have faced this year by points per game (one spot behind TCU itself, at #7) and rushing yards per game, and the third best in total yards (behind SMU and OU). On the other side, TCU is the 7th best defense we'll have faced by points allowed per game, 8th by rushing yards allowed, and 10th by total yards allowed.
And yet they think they'll hold us to what amounts to their either T-2nd or 5th best performance of the year, and our worst or 2nd worst. It's just comical...
December 27th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
I have feeling they just watched the Illinois game and said, “well, they must be a fraud” and wrote their reviews
December 27th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
This just proves they’ve never watched Michigan’s offense. Pathetic
December 27th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
This is a joke right? They apparently watched zero film and did zero scouting on UM and just picked some Big Ten stereo-types that have been out-dated for over a decade now. It's like the king of all straw men in the form of a football game preview. How in the world can you consider yourself in any way, shape, or form a credible sports podcast given that every single thing you said was completely wrong?
December 27th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
Because they're fans, not trained analysts. What we forget here at MgoBlog is Brian, Seth, Alex and the rest of the crew are the exception to the blogging rule. Show me one other site that does an UFR post-game. Show me one other site that goes into the depth of Neck Sharpies in breaking down plays.
Most other sites are like RCMB or 11 Warriors where unabashed fans of the school post all the great things they love about their school and why it's so awesome and why everyone else is a loser for not going there. We're terrifically spoiled here with actual real-life analysis, virtually everyone else gets "hooray for our team" type write ups. Killer Frogs are no exception to that rule.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
All their fans seem to be the same. Apparently we’re blue Texas and they beat Wisconsin. Rock paper scissors, they win.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
I agree with your points about MGoBlog but it's still shockingly lazy on their part. As a random fan who didn't feel like creating a blog, I've done a lot more opposition research than these guys. It was so high level. They don't mention a single player on Ms defense. They only mention Edwards and McCarthy on Offense. No mention of the O Line. The only group to get some mention was the TEs to say they are physical. They just didn't know anything about our team and seem to believe their team is super fast and in great shape. I don't think they spent so much as an hour preparing for this podcast.
December 27th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
Gerdeman's podcast with his sidekick is pretty insightful but does get a little too homer-ish and lead to their surprise the last two years. Their chart on how scary UM is is fun and I can't wait to see how reality changes it for this coming year. They might even take UM seriously, finally.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
To be fair, I can agree with the third bullet point in the post. Michigan might not feel the need to introduce anything new or interesting and will probably use "bully ball" to beat them because TCU looks soft. They had a hard time against K-State's physicality and running attack and K-State is like Michigan-lite. I was initially thinking it could be a close game, and I still think the chances are high, but now I'm wondering if they'll crumble under pressure just like OSU.
I do think TCU's coaches are better than OSU. Might actually have some decent schemes.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Our run game isn’t simple “bully ball” the way uninformed people tend to think. We run a very uncommonly high number of different complex run schemes that keep the other side off balance, in addition to running them over.
December 27th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
Not sure if you think I was implying that Michigan's run game is simple but I want to make it clear that I wasn't. I do think if Michigan has a chance to win by keeping things simple and running duo all day they will do that.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
They had a hard time against K-State's physicality and running attack and K-State is like Michigan-lite.
Yeah, It's kind of crazy that they can be so confident about their chances against us after their struggles with K-St. I mean, they were down by 11 in the second half of both games (K-St. still had an 11 point lead midway through the 4th quarter of the Big XII championship game) before staging big comebacks. Do they think K-St. is better than us, because that's the implication of their prediction.
It's one thing to talk about their offense. It could legitimately give us some issues because of Duggan's scrambling, which gives them a balance that OSU doesn't have. But to handwave and expect their middling defense to shut us down, something that only one team really did all year (Illinois, who was the #1 or #2 defense in the country going into that game, not to mention all the players held out for injury plus the coaching staff's vanilla gameplan), eliminates any credibility they might have.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Thanks for sharing this! (desparate for content)
I'd guess Ohio State is faster than Texas Christian, based on recruiting rankings which highly value speed.
Duggan surprised with his speed in the bit that I saw against Kansas State. But JJ also has demonstrated speed. JJ's running is not as obvious a part of our offense as Duggan's is for TCU, but perhaps equally effective?
December 27th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
I think if need be then yes. Harbaughs done a good job of limiting the big hits this year, but this is the playoffs. If film shows an opportunity for running qbs I’d bet JJ takes off.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
As a child of the '70s, I'm very familiar with Michigan's over-confidence coming out of the Big Ten season being painfully punctured when the team comes up against a high-octane offense in the big bowl game. Sure hoping that doesn't happen here, but I have to tell all the posters that sneer at the mere suggestion that we haven't faced the kind of offense in the Big Ten season we will in the bowl game, that ... pride goeth before the fall.
I hope the Michigan coaches are aware of that possibility and warn the team against overconfidence. TCU can play, and although I believe we're better, we shouldn't take them for granted.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
Well said! I especially don't see TCU playing conservative offensively with regard to 4th down. When I watched the replay of our win over Ohio State, that seemed glaring. Dykes knows he'll have a hard time stopping our offense. If TCU has 4 downs to get a first down, we'll have a hard time stopping them.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
They didn't mention being aggressive on 4th downs but they did say they that TCU is dedicating time in every practice for trick plays and will have several ready to go. Maybe that means fake punts/FGs. I do think they'll be very aggressive in anyway they can.
December 27th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
I haven't heard a single thing that indicates our players are overlooking TCU. It's actually seemed to be quite the contrary based on how TCU is talking about us. Our guys seem to be treating this like a business trip. JJ and Edwards stood there on the sideline last year watching UGA celebrate. They're in Arizona to take care of business
December 27th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
What is TCU's defensive line like? Can their tackles stand up and can they get a lot of pressure off the edge?
December 27th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
They run a lot of 3-3-5 and some 3-4. Their NT is a 320 lb freshman. He's a high 3 star guy (545 overall) but can he really hold up against Olu? I like that match up. Their DEs are 270 and 280. Their LBs are 220/230/245. I didn't look at the two deep but I just don't see how that line can hold up against our line and RBs. This has to be the biggest mismatch of all position groups. But they're super fast (allegedly) so who knows.
December 27th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^
I don't think there's a case in college football history (at a Power Five sort of level) where the five heaviest defenders outweighed the opposing team's offensive line.
Are they a little light? Sure, but remember that P = M * V. (You did mention speed.)
December 27th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
Does anyone know any good Michigan or neutral preview podcasts on this game? No shade to the Michigan content creators taking a well deserved break, but if there’s some out there I’d love to see it
December 27th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Klatt has some nice analyses that are very unbiased on you tube.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
The New Mexico State quarterback last night seemed like a pretty good preview of Duggan.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
I think this game will mainly be determined by our D vs. their offense. Our offense is going to be able to move against them and get points. So, it will come down to how well prepared our defense is to stop their QB play and our matchups at the line of scrimmage. Hopefully, if the defensive coaches have a really good game plan, we win by at least two scores.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
I think Minters gonna blitz early and often to establish some dominance and hopefully confuse Duggan. He’s taken a beating this year and can’t believe he’s not working through something. We spy Duggan and light him up the first series and can limit their big receivers play I think it could get ugly for them. If we’re waiting to see how they wanna attack us to make adjustments I could see them jumping out to an early 14 point lead and the site crashing.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
Yeah, spying Duggan will be critical. With our athletes ... I'm hoping we can seriously slow him down. If we can negate his running potential, we should be ok. My biggest fear is him doing what Sean Clifford did on that one play ... multiple times.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
TCUs defense is a paper tiger. Am I taking crazy pills? Not adjusting for strength of schedule TCU is 57th in points allowed per game and 74!! in yards allowed per game.
We’ve played 6 better defenses in ppg and 8! teams better in yards per game.
Max Duggen needs to be handled and we have to respect him, but their defense is a giant liability.
December 27th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
TCU defense is good overall but not as good as ours. Their d-line is really average.
December 27th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^
Wishing you a happy new year. (Delayed double post)