Tale of the Tape II: Compare OSU & UM Stats vs Wiscy

Submitted by superstringer on

I did this for the Rutgers games, and some people commented that it's pointless to compare stats from a blowout against a very overmatched team.  Or that the "transitive property" doesn't apply to college football states.  Whatever.  Take em for what you want -- our D still shut down Rutgers way better than OSU did.

Undeterred, let's do it again.  I know, OSU had a tougher fight -- Wiscy was at home, at night, had extra week to prepare, and "Hornibrook wasn't injured by a vicious hit the first time he threw."  Agaoin, whatever.  What do these stats tell me?  OSU's offense is probably a bit better than ours, but we still managed to put ourselves in position to score exactly the same number of regulation points as OSU, had our FG kickers been average-competent (23 pts each).  OTOH, OUR DEFENSE IS WAY BETTER THAN THEIRS.  We've now seen that in 2 games in 3 weeks.  Sweet Christmas.

Note:  The OSU data appears to include OT, and ESPN doesn't have per-period stats, so I couldn't back it out.  I guess in regulation they'd have 25 yds less offense and 21 on defense, etc. OT doesn't seem to have affected TOP (nor should it).  I excluded OT scoring from the TD data.

  OSU UM
Vs WISKY DEFENSE    
Total Plays 74 76
Total Yds 411 349
Yds/Play 5.6 4.6
Regulation TDs Scored 2 2
FGs Atts 3 3
1st Downs 23 21
Rush Yards 185 130
Rush Att 45 44
Yds/Rush 4.1 3
Long 22 22
Pass Yards 226 219
Comp 17 20
Att 29 32
Pct 59% 63%
Yds/Att 7.8 6.8
Yds/Compl 13.4 11
Punts 4 7
Lost Fumbles 0 0
Ints Thrown 1 1
Time Poss 28:32 35:41
Vs WISKY OFFENSE    
Total Plays 76 53
Total Yds 450 159
Yds/Play 5.9 3
TD Given Up 2 1
FG Atts Given Up 3 0
1st Downs 22 8
Rush Yards 236 71
Rush Att 48 28
Yds/Rush 5.1 2.5
Pass Yards 214 88
Comp 16 9
Att 28 25
Pct 57% 36%
Yds/Att 7.7 3.5
Yds/Compl 13.4 9.8
Punts 5 9
Fumbles Recov'd 0 0
Ints Caught 1 3

 

turtleboy

October 16th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^

I'd say their offense is slightly better than ours, due to system and a senior quarterback. That could change by the end of next month. I think the difference in our offenses is that they'll have 1 guy score 5 touchdowns while we'll have 5 guys score 1 touchdown each.

swalburn

October 16th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^

OSU didn't play well and managed to get the win.  Wisky slowed down their offense but OSU has so many weapons all over the place.  It killed me seeing Conley, Webb, and Weber Jr all making plays.  Meyer has built a juggernaut.  I think Brown will find a way to slow them down but we will need some points to beat them.  I'm thinking something around 28-24 or 24-21.

allintime23

October 16th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^

I think we'll win the game. Ohio states ground attack isn't anywhere near what it's been in the last four years but the major reason why is because they can't throw downfield. They struggled against a good Wisconsin secondary and our secondary is much better and also will make plays on some of JT's bad throws. On offense I think we'll be able to run the ball and throw against their overrated secondary. We should also have a huge advantage in special teams with our returns, but not our field goals. I think we'll run the Jabby-cat too and well, that's unstoppable. 28-17 Michigan win.



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Leonhall

October 16th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^

I think you could be right. Honestly though, I'm not comfortable with Stribling or maybe as comfortable as others appear to be. I still worry that Barrett will run against us a lot and that will lead to 1-2 long runs by Samuel or Weber because we'll be so focused on JT. Finally, we will need good push from our o-line; Speight will need time and a running game to be effective.



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Heywood_Jablome

October 16th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^

The fact OSU was getting pushed around and gashed in the first half tells you Wisconsin was doing something they didn't expect.  I'm not a x's and o's guy so I don't know what it was, but it was obviously something OSU didn;t see on tape.  Then they made adjustments in the 2nd half and pretty much shut Wisconsin down.

People downplay the bye week advantage, but it gives you time to put in new wrinkles that are not an option if you only have 1 week.

RationalBuckeye

October 16th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^

They didn't shut down Wisconsin in the second half. They shut them down for a few drives partly due to holding calls at the right moments and still got leaned on by a good power I attack with a strong, patient running back.

Are any of UM's backs patient enough to wait for a hole and hit it hard as soon as it opens? That remains to be seen

RationalBuckeye

October 16th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^

I don't think Michigan has the strength at OLB that UW has, and that will play a role in how well they're about shut down OSU's offense.

They do, however, have a better Dline and a better secondary so that will come into play also.

If UM's OL come together and get the push that UW's did after being dismal the previous 2 or 3 weeks, I think they'll win. If not then OSU has the advantage by making Mich beat them through the air or other wrinkles

taistreetsmyhero

October 16th, 2016 at 12:18 PM ^

Agreed, I think Wisky was able to contain you guys really well because of the amazing lb's they have. Michigan had the talent and scheme to shut down any semblance of downfield passing game you guys have (but we are susceptible to the big bust). It's really gonna come down to peppers being able to contain Barret.

On offense, wisky has a bad offense. Hornibrook is decent but I'd take an inconsistent speight over him every time. Michigan also has a better scheme, is willing to open it up more.

OSU will have to play much better than they did against wisky to beat us. I have no doubt they will play up to our level, but it's gonna be a dog fight for sure.



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RationalBuckeye

October 16th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^

They have a bad offense that overperformed last night. Their OL played better than they have recently and Corey clement was healthy for the first time since the LSU game.

Osu will now prepare for the WR end around against Michigan and while they might still have some success with it, it won't be as available as it was last night.

I agree that OSU will have to play better from the get go. If they let UM punch them in the mouth in the first half, they won't come back and win.

Steeveebr

October 16th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^

I've seen a lot of OSU fans active on various Michigan sites this morning.  I'm sensing they are starting to feel a little vulnerable after the last two weeks.

MGlobules

October 16th, 2016 at 3:21 PM ^

down the stretch here, and be working out nice surprises for OSU in practice.

Think it will be a hell of a game, and feel less worried that we can play with them after last night. That said, they can be explosive. Rattling Barrett into a bad game may help.

 

Michology 101

October 16th, 2016 at 1:13 PM ^

Wisconsin called too many bunched offensive plays in the redzone and that's why OSU's defense did well at stopping them near the endzone. Wisconsin should've tried to run the ball out of a few more spread sets. When you run out of bunch sets, the defense already has everybody in the box to try and stop the play. Therefore, you're trying to beat power with power. OSU has enough defensive talent to do well in that battle. Wisconsin was having some good success with powerball running. I just feel they weren't changing their offensive formations up enough, especially near the endzone. I also believe they out thought themselves by not giving the ball to their fullback more.

JimHarbaughLawBlog

October 16th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^

I was surprised at how they were able to consistently gash them for fiveish yard runs. If we do that we'll be gravy, hopefully it will open up the play action and Speight can drop a few over the top

SBo

October 16th, 2016 at 3:10 PM ^

I have a feeling Peppers plays 50+% of the offensive snaps in The Game. Hopefully we win, he has a few iconic moments during this backstretch, and has a Harmon-esque performance vs OSU, bringing us our fourth heisman.