Tale of the Tape II: Compare OSU & UM Stats vs Wiscy
I did this for the Rutgers games, and some people commented that it's pointless to compare stats from a blowout against a very overmatched team. Or that the "transitive property" doesn't apply to college football states. Whatever. Take em for what you want -- our D still shut down Rutgers way better than OSU did.
Undeterred, let's do it again. I know, OSU had a tougher fight -- Wiscy was at home, at night, had extra week to prepare, and "Hornibrook wasn't injured by a vicious hit the first time he threw." Agaoin, whatever. What do these stats tell me? OSU's offense is probably a bit better than ours, but we still managed to put ourselves in position to score exactly the same number of regulation points as OSU, had our FG kickers been average-competent (23 pts each). OTOH, OUR DEFENSE IS WAY BETTER THAN THEIRS. We've now seen that in 2 games in 3 weeks. Sweet Christmas.
Note: The OSU data appears to include OT, and ESPN doesn't have per-period stats, so I couldn't back it out. I guess in regulation they'd have 25 yds less offense and 21 on defense, etc. OT doesn't seem to have affected TOP (nor should it). I excluded OT scoring from the TD data.
| OSU | UM | |
| Vs WISKY DEFENSE | ||
| Total Plays | 74 | 76 |
| Total Yds | 411 | 349 |
| Yds/Play | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Regulation TDs Scored | 2 | 2 |
| FGs Atts | 3 | 3 |
| 1st Downs | 23 | 21 |
| Rush Yards | 185 | 130 |
| Rush Att | 45 | 44 |
| Yds/Rush | 4.1 | 3 |
| Long | 22 | 22 |
| Pass Yards | 226 | 219 |
| Comp | 17 | 20 |
| Att | 29 | 32 |
| Pct | 59% | 63% |
| Yds/Att | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| Yds/Compl | 13.4 | 11 |
| Punts | 4 | 7 |
| Lost Fumbles | 0 | 0 |
| Ints Thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Time Poss | 28:32 | 35:41 |
| Vs WISKY OFFENSE | ||
| Total Plays | 76 | 53 |
| Total Yds | 450 | 159 |
| Yds/Play | 5.9 | 3 |
| TD Given Up | 2 | 1 |
| FG Atts Given Up | 3 | 0 |
| 1st Downs | 22 | 8 |
| Rush Yards | 236 | 71 |
| Rush Att | 48 | 28 |
| Yds/Rush | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| Pass Yards | 214 | 88 |
| Comp | 16 | 9 |
| Att | 28 | 25 |
| Pct | 57% | 36% |
| Yds/Att | 7.7 | 3.5 |
| Yds/Compl | 13.4 | 9.8 |
| Punts | 5 | 9 |
| Fumbles Recov'd | 0 | 0 |
| Ints Caught | 1 | 3 |
October 16th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 12:57 PM ^
handed OSU that game late by rushing 3 or 4 in critical down situations.
October 17th, 2016 at 12:22 AM ^
Exactly. I don't know what was going on there.
Barrett is a streaky player and once he got time and got in a rhythm, he was unstoppable.
October 16th, 2016 at 8:41 AM ^
It's worth noting that in regulation, OSU scored the same amout of points as Michigan would have if there weren't a kicking situation.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:08 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 8:52 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 9:12 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^
That was true once (2014). At Florida, he never had a good backup for Tebow.
October 16th, 2016 at 8:57 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
If true, I definitely like Michigan's chances to get to JT even more. We rotate so many quality DL, and our blitzes can come from so many different positions, that I think we're at less of a risk to gas.
October 16th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
At least in the trenches, being tired should simply never be a factor for us. We have too many dudes rotating.
October 16th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:07 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:08 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^
The downvotes were coming quickly in the game thread, too.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^
They have a decent kicker. Somebody on this roster is going to have to be able to nail field goals by the end of the season. I think FGs may be important in that game.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:53 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 11:42 AM ^
This right here. Chryst had some crappy 2nd down calls deep in the redzone in the 1st half. I had no doubt OSU would win when they didn't capitalize. James Joseph Harbaugh won't make that same mistake in the shoe.
October 16th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^
That's not entirely true.
Even games that go into the 20s need FGs to win (i.e. if OSU missed a field goal last night they would've lost).
I imagine The Game's score being similar to the 2012 game in Columbus, but hope the good guys are on top this time.
October 16th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 10:13 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
Samuel is the most dangerous player on the team. I thnk Peppers and Michigan would be better off keying on Samuel. They spread him everywhere on the field, Peppers can play anywhere on the field.
I trust our defensive line and linebackers to contain Barrett. If they control the line of scrimmage then Barrett has no where to go. Force them to pound Weber and Samuel up the middle and get 3 and longs.
The only thing I worry about are the Ohio TE's getting loose because our front six is keying on Barrett so much.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:14 AM ^
UM's DL is better than UW's, and the secondary is worlds better. No way DB even thinks about rushing three just to drop everyone back in zone. Not gonna happen... Those bombs Barrett hit? He won't have time to wait for someone to get open, and he won't be throwing it into a zone defense. What I worry about is him breaking contain on one of those plays. But if OSU yards come by broken play, I'll take that all day long...
October 16th, 2016 at 10:17 AM ^
Actually Don Brown will often rush only four and will not send a blitzer on every play. Don Brown is very aggressive but if we can apply pressure with our front four Don Brown will absolutely make use of that just like he's done every game this year. If we can't apply pressure with four guys then we are already in trouble.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:14 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^
No secret here. Don't let Barret hurt you with his legs and UM wins.
Also, I thought Wisconsin did a pretty good job against the pass. OSU had to run Barret 21 times. I don't necessarily think that is what they want to do.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^
Wiscy put up more yds on OSU than every team they have played except Akron. Watching it, it did not seem like it was just a handful of chunk fluke plays for W.
I have a hard time thinking Harbaugh will not present at least an equally challenging offense for OSU to defend.
OSU gets great leadership out of Barrett, that is the X factor to me. Make him beat you throwing, I don't think he can do that for a whole game if you contain him on the ground.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:57 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 9:27 AM ^
I think that any way you look at it UM and OSU are very evenly matched. OSU looked vulnerable last night and they are young. UM has experience but not at QB and most would say the talent isn't as high as OSU.
For as many 5 wide sets as they used last night, I really hope the LBs are able to handle Barrett one on one. I do like Michigan's DL vs. OSU's young OL. Their receivers honestly look very good. Thankfully neither RB looked like another Elliott or Hyde.
One of my biggest takeaways is that Wisconsin is legit. The offense seems to be improving and that Cichy is one hell of a player.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^
That guy is good.
October 16th, 2016 at 9:40 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:56 AM ^
Hope he doesn't expect that when M plays him, that dude is gonna get hammered.
October 16th, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^
In competitive games, they do run him a lot. He had 17 carries vs Oklahoma, 26 against IU and 21 last night.
Obviously in huge blowouts they don't bother.
October 16th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:42 AM ^
This game is going to be unbelievable. Probably 2 v. 3. Biggest thing is how Speight evolves over the next few weeks leading up to the Game. I know Harbaugh will have a gameplan that will maximize his QB's chances for success and our D will be pinning their ears back.
GO BLUE!!
October 16th, 2016 at 10:11 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:49 AM ^
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October 16th, 2016 at 9:49 AM ^
And watch him get picked twice at least. What kept tcrushing Wis last night was Barrett in open space, puts on the jets, next thing he's got 15 yards.
October 16th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 10:15 AM ^
I think this stuff is great, because it's all we have to go on. However, I'd feel way better about this comparison if was played in the Shoe and not in Camp Randall.
October 16th, 2016 at 10:22 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 12:11 PM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
Game will come down to whether they get called for holding. They will hold on for dear life every play, we gotta hope they call ~10% of them.
October 16th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
October 16th, 2016 at 12:10 PM ^