So where will we be ranked this week?

Submitted by michgoblue on November 6th, 2021 at 11:58 PM

So with today’s action done, where are we going to be ranked?  Bama’s second loss means that they will likely move out of the top 10, moving us to 6. But what about Sparty? Same record, they just had a bad loss to a mediocre team, but obviously they likely stay ahead of us because of the head to head.

Which creates an interesting dynamic: We shouldn’t fall unless we lose, so us at 6 seems reasonable. But does that create a floor for Sparty because it keeps them at 5?  I’ll be curious how that dynamic plays out over the next few weeks assuming (hoping) we keep winning. 

jmblue

November 7th, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^

Bama’s second loss?  They beat LSU.

We’ll be ahead of MSU.  The voters effectively treated our game against them as a coinflip, but losing by double digits to an unranked PU team won’t earn MSU the same respect.

ohio

November 7th, 2021 at 7:18 AM ^

They should fall to 9 or 10. Not just against us, but their perfect record was quite fortuitous. The committee isn’t like ap voters voting in results. A home win after a bye week when some calls and a big mistake would seem to clarify a picture since the clock has struck midnight on Sparty. Nebraska could have beat us at home at night. Should have beat them  

TrueBlue2003

November 7th, 2021 at 1:02 AM ^

Are you talking AP or CFP?  I feel like CFP is the only thing that matters at this point.  The AP will rank us ahead of MSU but given how staunchly the CFP held to keeping head to head winners with the same number of losses, this is my guess at the top 10 in CFP:

1. UGA

2. Bama

3. Oregon

4. OSU

5. Cinci

6. MSU

7. Michigan

8. Oklahoma

9. ND

10. Ok St.

The big question will be whether they adhere to the head to head or go with literally any other criteria (eye test, advanced analytics, resume, anything) and drop MSU well below us like they should be.

 

This is what I think it should be:

1. UGA

2. Bama

3. OSU

4. Oklahoma

5. Cinci

6. Michigan

7. ND

8. Texas A&M

9. Ok St

10. MSU

WorldwideTJRob

November 7th, 2021 at 8:21 AM ^

Exactly! We will hate to admit it, but that’s why that game was so important last week. It gives MSU a win that all the other 1-loss teams can’t tout(except Oregon). That will be huge in their placement. Oregon loss to an unranked team on the road yet they are still ranked #4. The committee values who you beat, more than who you loss to.

jmblue

November 7th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^

Oregon, minus its best player, went into Columbus and beat OSU, in a game UO led by double digits most of the way.  

MSU beat UM in East Lansing in a nail-biter in which MSU trailed most of the way (and featuring some controversial officiating decisions).  The two games will not be treated the same way. 

WorldwideTJRob

November 7th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^

I guarantee you they will! A win is a win in their eyes. As much as we want to forget it, or remove it from our psyche…we lost last week. All of those factors were involved in the voting last week and we still were 4 spots behind them! They lost on the road to a good Perdue team(who will be in the top 20 this week), doubt that makes them tumble as much as ppl think they will.

UnsaddledVirus

November 7th, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^

I'd guess in the top 7.

 

 

But in all honesty 6 at the highest, displacing either Sparty or Cincy. A PSU win would put us top 5 IMO, an OSU win top 4. Win out and we're top 4. No use speculating beyond that.

butuka21

November 7th, 2021 at 12:10 AM ^

Just win it does not matter what we are ranked right now.  If they win out and win the big championship there is no way to not get in. Again none of it matters unless they first beat penn state next Saturday.  

tigerd

November 7th, 2021 at 12:11 AM ^

The voters put a lot of emphasis on who you lost to. Michigan lost to a top 10 team while being screwed over by bad officials. MSU lost to an unranked team. I can see them falling completely out of the top ten after today.

TrueBlue2003

November 7th, 2021 at 1:14 AM ^

Exactly.  And that wasn't the only example.  Miss St at #17 ahead of Kentucky at #18 based on H2H despite UK having a better record and Miss St having lost to Memphis, LSU and Bama (by 40!!).  Wisconsin one spot ahead of Iowa despite a worse record (although this was the right call).  Fresno State ahead of SDSU despite a worse record.

Good chance MSU is 6th and we're 7th in the CFP.

MaizeBlueA2

November 7th, 2021 at 12:16 AM ^

Obligatory "just win."

(although I'll contend that we needed TDs instead of FGs to get a 42-7 type of score. Winning is most important, but style points matter at this point for us).

Newton Gimmick

November 7th, 2021 at 12:17 AM ^

Just going to use this to throw in a strange stat about Tulsa:

Outgained #11 (and soon to be Top 10) Oklahoma State 347-313

Outgained #6 Cincinnati 446-390

Was narrowly outgained by #5 Ohio St 508-501

Lost all three games but net-outgained three Top 10 teams by 83 yards

BlowGoo

November 7th, 2021 at 12:23 AM ^

Ohio and Michigan each move up one to #5 and #6 respectively. Sparty falls to #7 or #8. The only thing that matters to the playoff committee is that a one-loss Big Ten team gets an invite to the playoffs.

Keeping all 3 one-loss teams bunched up, knowing that Ohio plays the other two, almost guarantees that end result. 

BlowGoo

November 7th, 2021 at 2:04 AM ^

Of course they will. 

They want to allow msu the opportunity to run the table so as to get in.

They'll be just above or 1-2 below Michigan. 

 

All 3 one loss big ten teams will be tightly clumped together. Maybe cincy in between at most. Then a little jostling after osu-msu and The Game such that the only one still at 1 loss, if any, will be #4.

greymarch

November 7th, 2021 at 12:30 AM ^

UM will pass Sparty.  After 9pm eastern time on Tuesday, UM will be #6 in the CFP poll.

 

- Sparty was a small favorite over Purdue.  Sparty lost by 2 scores.

 

- UM was favored by 19 over Indiana.  UM won by 22.

 

- Last week, UM's lost to MSU didnt mean much to the CFP.  UM started #7 in the CFP poll, despite being #9 and #10 in the AP and coaches poll, respectively.  MSU's loss to Purdue will mean much more to the CFP.

 

#GoBlue

AC1997

November 7th, 2021 at 12:34 AM ^

The scoreboard in the stadium twice showed the score as Alabama losing to LSU 45-20.  We had entire conversations in our section about what it meant for the SEC title and the playoff.  Then right before the end they corrected it to 20-14.   

michgoblue

November 7th, 2021 at 12:42 AM ^

I was at the game but didn’t see the scoreboards. But my two buddies who texted me saying Bama Lost both said that this was where they got the info. As we all know, cell resection in the Big House (at least in the bowl) sucks so I wasn’t checking scores of anything. So weird!!