Should we accept the fact that this COVID season is a totally anomally?
This is not a coaching apology thread nor a Michigan specific thread. This speaks to the broader spectrum of how this season has transpired. Between the number of cancelled games to the loss of prominent players right before season, is there reason to believe that the parity shown this year is an anomaly that won't really have much bearing in the future?
Here is the preseason AP top 25 (Bolded teams have had disastrous seasons)
1. Clemson, 2. OSU, 3. Alabama, 4. Georgia, 5. Oklahoma, 6. LSU, 7. PSU, 8. Florida, 9. Oregon, 10. ND, 11. Auburn, 12. Wisconsin, 13. Texas A&M, 14. Texas, 15. OK State, 16. Michigan, 17. USC, 18. UNC, 19. Minnesota, 20. Cincinnati, 21. UCF, 22. Utah, 23. ISU, 24. Iowa, 25. Tennessee.
Lets look at the bolded teams.
Oklahoma (4-2) - Losses to KSU, ISU - Started out disastrous. Have since turned things a bit around. We'll see if things are really turned around against Ok State. Started a new QB.
LSU (2-3) - Losses to MS State, Missouri, Auburn - Total disaster. They pretty much had to replace their entire team after their championship. New QB, seeing a trend. Jamarr Chase opted out.
PSU (0-4) - Losses to IU, OSU, MD, and Nebraska - Another total disaster. Their best player, Micah Parsons, opted out and their QB has regressed. Their two starting RB's got injured.
Michigan (1-3) - Losses to MSU, IU, Wisconsin - Replace nearly everyone on offense and almost the entire secondary after opt outs from Nico Collins and Ambry Thomas. New QB, new OLine, New Secondary, Covid year, absolute disaster.
Minnesota (1-3) - Losses to Michigan, MD, and Iowa - Another total disaster. They experienced some attrition losing one of their top receivers and DB's to the draft but they could have also been a mirage last season.
Of course pre-season polls are all about hype and all these teams could have just been bad no matter how the season transpired but the common thread amongst all these teams is they either had to settle in a new QB, their best players opted out of the season, or they had to face massive roster turnovers. In Michigan's case, they happen to experience all three (yeah we're cursed).
It makes sense that with so many unknowns entering the season, these teams might not have been prepared. Opt outs probably especially hurt, as those teams had to find replacements for their star players very quickly and a strength suddenly became a glaring weakness. My point is, Oklahoma, PSU, and LSU won't be this bad next year. I know there is a lot to hate about Michigan football right now, and this has nothing to do with the horrible schemes and play calling (which is another topic all together) but I don't know if we can use this Covid-19 season as a barometer for the health of the program.
With that said, I think we've seen enough from Don Brown even when he has everything going for him that he is not the guy we want or need and this has to be his last year. Gattis was dealt a really bad hand this year with the offensive turnover. Hard to run or pass the ball when your offensive line can't pick up any blocks. If Harbaugh and crew survive this season, I expect something closer to the 9-10 win seasons we've been accustomed to rather than this dumpster fire. Still no where close to OSU but were not Rutgers either.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
Sorry, losing to MSU this year is an unforgivable sin. That is going to be the only game they win this year. Harbaugh robbed us of a once in a lifetime chance of a winless MSU football season. If I live to be 150 years old, I will forever be bitter and angry about that.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
MSU showed the absolute lack of coaching this team has. We got shredded by Rocky Lombardi, who barely completed over 50% of his passes, and was absolutely shutdown by a defense that got blown out by Iowa and Indiana and gave up 38 to Rutgers, despite completely overmatching them talent wise
November 19th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Reminder, in Harbaugh's 5+ years this is what we have an our hands:
- 0-5 vs OSU
- 3-3 vs MSU
- no B1G titles, nor even playing in the title game let alone CFP
- best road win is against #20 Northwestern
- 1-4 in bowl games
- 0-15 when Michigan is an underdog
- worst halftime deficit in Michigan stadium history & 2nd worst loss ever at home
This year is a culmination of Harbaugh's efforts.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
So glad you are here to remind us of these things.
Is water wet? Or does water make things wet?
Please oh please share your insights.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
ahh; but he's 1-1 against (assume beano cook voice)
tha university of no-tra dame.
he's got that going for him; they're a rival, right?
November 19th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
All of the above...plus...
42-13, 62-39, 56-27 and now likely basically 100-0 vs ohio state.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
But, but, but...
November 20th, 2020 at 7:51 AM ^
Of course this season is an anomaly. But yeah doesn’t excuse the MSU loss.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^
What season?
November 19th, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^
Oklahoma has not had a disastrous season. They lost twice and are favored to win this week against a Top 15 team. They may still win the Big 12.
LSU has basically reverted back to the mean. They were typically a 3-4 loss team before last year's anomaly. The Missouri loss was a little fluky too if I recall.
The thing you're right about is the Big Ten teams. Minnesota was overrated. Penn State and Michigan have had disastrous seasons.
I like your optimism by the "look someone else is as miserable as we are" approach, but other than Penn State fans, there's nobody who shares our pain.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
Anyone looking at Oklahoma in Week 3 was looking at a 1-2 disastrous season. For a pre season top 5 team, that is pretty disastrous. They may have turned it around but this was not the season they envisioned what so ever.
LSU is 1-3. They would have to essentially run the table in order for them to "revert to their mean" of a 3-4 loss team. Also not the season anyone envisioned for them.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:14 PM ^
Oklahoma has been successful the last few years because of Heisman QB play each year. This year they aren't getting that and it shows. So I would say that the preseason polls had them overrated. I am surprised at how bad Penn St. has been , but they have an unproven QB. Same for us a new QB. The difference for us is that we seem to have regressed greatly and the coaches have not been able to adapt at any level. Michigan looks rudderless.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
So Lincoln Riley could be available!
/ s
November 19th, 2020 at 6:34 PM ^
We suck...could care less about what tire fires are happening with other programs.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
How is Tennessee’s season not seen as a disaster?
November 19th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
I originally had like 2-3 other teams to include but felt it was getting cumbersome. They definitely deserve to be included, though I feel like I expected this from them. The other teams listed were total surprises at how bad they are doing.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
LSU is definitely below their mean. They got shredded by a Mississippi State team that scored 0 offensive points vs Alabama and Kentucky. Given that, they lost a ton of guys to the NFL and everyone down there is still drunk from winning the title, but they're definitely one of the worst LSU teams of recent memory
November 19th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^
Oklahoma also "turned it around" by beating a pretty blah Texas team and three other Big 12 teams with a combined record of 6-16.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:24 PM ^
Also, if I were PSU I'd feel way better than Michigan right now.
They dominated IU, almost tripling their yardage, gave away the game at the end of regulation by not kneeling and then still should have won but for a lucky call (that was probably outright wrong) in OT. And that was a good IU team that they dominated.
And they did pretty much what they wanted against Nebraska, especially in the second half, even with a backup QB. Outgained them 500 yards to 300 but couldn't overcome a fumble for TD in the first half and a couple TOs on downs in the redzone in the last 5 min.
Couple bounces of the ball differently and they're 2-2 with a not horrible loss to OSU. You can squint and see how they turn it around.
Michigan is getting dominated though. They're much further away and they lose most of their best players after this year. The Michigan defense is almost certain to be worse next year. And the offense improving is dependent on QB but this staff hasn't shown any ability to get QBs even close to their potential.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
I'm sorry, but these are just excuses...everyone has had to deal with BS, some just handle it better.
We have weirdly recruited, badly coached and developed and look like a program that has lost it's way.
Agree that Brown needs to hit the road and Nua and the LB coach, wish we still had Partridge who looks like not only a great recruiter but a good coach.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
Agree with all the points about coaching, recruiting, and development. I just don't think we are as bad as we look this year (which is bottom two team in the division). Doesn't mean that Harbaugh has done an acceptable job while he's been here. Just means that if Harbaugh does stay, I don't think this year is representative of where the football team is. I think we are still that 8-10 win team that we've been every other year.
Partridge should be the first call Harbaugh makes if he survives this season.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
But is it really only this year?
I believe he's 10-9 in his last 19 games.
If they manage to lose to lowly Rutgers, it'll be a very substandard 10-10...
November 19th, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^
this is exactly it!! Folks are focusing on this year, for obvious reasons, but we should be talking about the last 3 years really. 10-9 in the last 19 games tells the story. Covid has certainly made everything more challenging, but I would have thought a typical Harbaugh coached team would actually thrive under those circumstances given they've been known to outwork folks and outscheme others, not to mention having an enthusiasm unknown to mankind (sigh). All of that is gone and I don't know how we get it back. How many years do we have to go back for OSU to have a combined total 9 losses? heck, forget OSU, Wisconsin or Penn State, how many seasons for them? This program needs to be above average before it can think about wanting to compete with the big dogs. Jim brings the beer to the champagne this fanbase so desire.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^
Plenty of teams have figured out how to play well despite having all the same situations to deal with as Michigan.
Losing Ambry or Nico doesn't change O-line blocking or the lack of push from the d-tackles. It also doesn't explain why McGrone and Ross don't seem to know what direction to run on any given play. It doesn't explain the offensive scheme.
So no, Harbaugh, Michigan do not get a pass because Covid. That is an easy excuse that does not explain the severe schematic and lack of development issues.
Is Harbaugh going to suddenly run RPO's or fix the gapping holes in the defense next year because there is a vaccine?
November 19th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
Honest question. How do we explain the tragedy that is our offensive line if we don't attribute it to general attrition and lack of experience? I think we can agree that the only beloved coach we have is Ed Warrinner. He's consistently produced good offensive lines and his blocking schemes and development have never really been in question. So what happened this year outside of a total turnover of the line? Did Harbaugh or Gattis poison the well?
The offensive line development and recruiting in my opinion, outside of this year has been stellar. Even when we replaced large parts of our line, it was never this bad. Is it that all these top recruits just turned out to be duds? Did Warrinner forget how to scheme and coach? Did Harbaugh suddenly start coaching the line? The only thing I can think of was the lack of spring and fall camp compounded with the uncertainty of Mayfield and the general turnover we faced.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
I think attrition and injuries are mostly legit excuses for Warriner. It is a little disappointing that Rumler, Keegan, Jones, Carpenter, Honigford etc are not getting any time when a former walk-on and true freshman are playing so might be a little bit of a failure to develop there but he's earned the benefit of the doubt.
I personally think Don Brown has earned the benefit of the doubt, for the most part as well and that he gets a bit of a pass this season based on his track record. Losing Ambry was massive. We would have beaten MSU and maybe even IU with him and things wouldn't look nearly as dire right now. Add in the losses to all american DEs and he's in a tough circumstance.
I don't think Harbaugh and the offense get any leniency though. Year 6 and we still don't have a QB. They appear to have run the best one out of town. Gattis or whomever is calling the plays and setting the gameplan has been an outright disaster for the second year in a row. There's been a revolving door of poor OCs.
I don't think Harbaugh can properly run or delegate a modern offense. He could have a coming to Jesus moment like Beilien did late in his career when it came to defense. But that's a pretty rare exception to the rule that coaches usually don't have the humility to get out of their own way. And it's not ideal to be a CEO type like Orgeron or Franklin because you're only as good as your coordinators and you have to keep hiring good ones to replace any good ones you were lucky enough to hire in the first place. So it's probably time to end it.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
I’m not sure what games some people are watching, Michigan is poorly coached this year last year whatever year especially on the road especially at home against OSU, MSU. Make the change Jim hasn’t got the job done No Big Ten titles Rose Bowl trips. Make the change please!
November 19th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
I don't think you can use the 2020 season as a valid data point in comparison to the other 5 years under Harbaugh, but the other 5 years directly contribute to this. This year simply highlighted the cracks in the foundation and expedited the foundation breaking.
I kind of figured this year would either be a massive success or a massive failure; 2020 did not disappoint.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
Similar take, with a slight nuance. The past five years the players overcame the cracks in the foundation: poor clock management, poor offensive scheme, weird recruiting strategies, etc. After repeatedly having to suffer the consequence of these issues, the players have tuned the coaches out. I think that better accounts for the sudden drop off.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
This year simply highlighted the cracks in the foundation and expedited the foundation breaking.
This is what I would say as well. Instead of seeing the COVID season 2020 as some kind of excuse that isn't under control of JH, what if we see these results as COVID shining the light on, or making it clearer the issues this program has had under JH. We should be thankful, in a way, b/c without COVID, Nico and Ambry would be here to duck tape the team together, masking (to a certain extent) the real problems with the team:
- QB play & development (STF happened with DMC?)
- organization on offense and a committment to ??? (run game? speed in space? manball? IZ, OZ?)
- DT play & development & recruitment
- CB play & development & recruitment
- not being able to play any kind of zone effectively at all
- TEs being just plain turrible
In a hypothetical non-COVID 2020 season, maybe we limp to 8-4 or 7-5, squeeking out a W vs MSU, 3 OOC teams, Minn, etc but it's just enough to argue that JH had some bad breaks. The O was young but servicable with Nico helping Milton as a safetly blanket that helps open the run game, the D was meh the Ambry but not an abject disaster. Then 2021 hits and the holes we see now are there but not as sever as they are now, so another limp to 8-4ish.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
I second that emotion.
The shake up in the polls is typical year over year - its the nature of a preseason poll predicted on last years results versus this year's potential. Transitive property, hypotheticals, teenagers stepping up - all just flat out guesses and projections from guys no more connected than message board poster #982349328.
This year simply highlighted the cracks in the foundation and expedited the foundation breaking.
Without the window dressing of MAC squads and early cupcakes, the flaws have been magnified in the front end of the schedule. A few years of project players and no organized game plan in filling out the roster has reared its ugly head. Harbaugh has been trending this way for some time. Everyone can formulate their own take but Harbaugh has had some quit from within his program and the wind has been taken out of the sails early this season. Whatever the reasons, this team has lost trust and its visible on tape and in the results.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
This season is an anomaly of sorts, and Jim Harbaugh is a bad football coach. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
This sums up what i'm feeling. Except that I don't think Harbaugh is a "bad' coach. I think he is a mediocre coach that was hailed as a great coach.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
I think he's a good coach that has made some high-impact mistakes and gotten relatively poor luck. He's not a great enough coach to overcome those. Few are.
Are Jimbo Fisher or Ed Orgeron better coaches? Their whole careers, save one magical season each, would suggest they're not. However, each caught the proverbial lightning in a bottle and took advantage of down years in their conference opponents. 2016 was Harbaugh's best chance, and then Speight got hurt and the Game played out the way it did.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^
I think Jimbo is a pretty good coach, but doesn't care at all about recruiting. I think he leaves it up to his underlings. Wait to see Texas A&M in a year or two when it is all his recruits. He cratered FSU and will probably do the same in Texas. Orgeron is the Larry Coker of LSU, in which he let the talent play. They just lost too many pieces and he is not a strong enough tactician to overcome the losses.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
Let me amend my statement...Harbaugh isn’t a bad coach. He is a mediocre coach that in 6 years has given us mostly meaningless wins.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
MSU.
Covid doesn't fix, change, or cover-up the result of that game. Nor does it absolve blame from any concerned party. If the on-field performance could be credibly pointed to missing players due to C-19, we wouldn't be having these posts.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^
Agreed, the alternate supportive argument is Wisconsin. They did have to deal with a significant number of players and coaches being out due to Covid and still found a way to dominate Michigan. What more needs to be understood about Harbaugh and the state of the team at this point?
November 19th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^
Maybe Wisky having a 2 byes gave Harbaugh less film to coordinate a cohesive game plan to utilize Michigan's strengths and negate......ah who am I kidding I can't seriously continue this statement
November 19th, 2020 at 8:04 PM ^
We are as bad of a team as when this show above was on television. Though Bump won the B1G and rosebowl in '64
November 19th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
The loss to MSU is probably the 3rd worst loss in Michigan football history, right behind App State and Toledo.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
App State is a worse loss from a reputation stand point. But I suspect that App State team could beat this year's msu team by 14 points.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
Yes, that App State team was better than this MSU team and probably by 2 TDs but it was still a "worse" loss relative to spread. M was favored by more (27 compared to 21) because that Michigan team was a lot better than this Michigan team. It had seniors Chad Henne and Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, Jake Long, Brandon Graham, Tim Jamison, Shawn Crable, Donovon Warren, so much talent.
There's a reason it was #5 preseason and ended up being one of the few teams to ever beat a Tim Tebow led Florida team. So for the coaches to not have that team ready was more unacceptable, IMO. But yes, losing to this MSU team is very bad. I agree that it's the third worst loss in my lifetime (narrowly behind Toledo).
November 19th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
I think we won't be able to call this season an anomaly for the teams in question until we see them next year.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:29 PM ^
Fire Harbaugh!! We know he wont be fired, but there needs to be a mutual parting of ways.
It just hasnt worked out and there needs to be a change made asap. Besides Ed W, I would clean house.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
I don't care too much about what other teams are doing. As far as Michigan is concerned...whether COVID is around or not
- its year 6 and Jim still doesn't have a QB
- there still wouldn't be reads on zone read looking plays
- we'd still be playing press man with a bunch of bad corners
- we still have no DTs
Only thing no COVID changes is we probably escape the non-conference slate at 3-1. They lost to a terrible MSU team. Completely unacceptable in any circumstance
November 19th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
Actually, He had a QB that I think would be a terrific college player. He just ran him off.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
Everyone plays by the same rules and standards. We lost, at home, to the worst MSU team I've ever seen. And that wasn't the worst part.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
After the State game I wrote this long-ass post about the trends in Michigan losses that I was going to post as a diary but thought 'fuck it' and didn't bother.
But the main takeaway was that Michigan's losses were chaotic and dysfunctional and marked by a distinct lack of emotion and effort. Those losses: the 2018 and 2019 Ohio State games, 2018@ND and 2019 Penn State, Wisconsin games and Capital One Bowl - all showed the same patterns. But, in many cases M had enough talent and the D played well enough that they were actually in the game at the end and had a chance to win.
BUT...Michigan is doing that every game now (with the exception of Minnesota for some reason). And these problems are exacerbated now: the team looks awful and they're flatter than ever. It looks like they don't care. Unfortunately, I don't think it's an anomaly; I think Michigan was heading this way all along.