Should we accept the fact that this COVID season is a totally anomally?
This is not a coaching apology thread nor a Michigan specific thread. This speaks to the broader spectrum of how this season has transpired. Between the number of cancelled games to the loss of prominent players right before season, is there reason to believe that the parity shown this year is an anomaly that won't really have much bearing in the future?
Here is the preseason AP top 25 (Bolded teams have had disastrous seasons)
1. Clemson, 2. OSU, 3. Alabama, 4. Georgia, 5. Oklahoma, 6. LSU, 7. PSU, 8. Florida, 9. Oregon, 10. ND, 11. Auburn, 12. Wisconsin, 13. Texas A&M, 14. Texas, 15. OK State, 16. Michigan, 17. USC, 18. UNC, 19. Minnesota, 20. Cincinnati, 21. UCF, 22. Utah, 23. ISU, 24. Iowa, 25. Tennessee.
Lets look at the bolded teams.
Oklahoma (4-2) - Losses to KSU, ISU - Started out disastrous. Have since turned things a bit around. We'll see if things are really turned around against Ok State. Started a new QB.
LSU (2-3) - Losses to MS State, Missouri, Auburn - Total disaster. They pretty much had to replace their entire team after their championship. New QB, seeing a trend. Jamarr Chase opted out.
PSU (0-4) - Losses to IU, OSU, MD, and Nebraska - Another total disaster. Their best player, Micah Parsons, opted out and their QB has regressed. Their two starting RB's got injured.
Michigan (1-3) - Losses to MSU, IU, Wisconsin - Replace nearly everyone on offense and almost the entire secondary after opt outs from Nico Collins and Ambry Thomas. New QB, new OLine, New Secondary, Covid year, absolute disaster.
Minnesota (1-3) - Losses to Michigan, MD, and Iowa - Another total disaster. They experienced some attrition losing one of their top receivers and DB's to the draft but they could have also been a mirage last season.
Of course pre-season polls are all about hype and all these teams could have just been bad no matter how the season transpired but the common thread amongst all these teams is they either had to settle in a new QB, their best players opted out of the season, or they had to face massive roster turnovers. In Michigan's case, they happen to experience all three (yeah we're cursed).
It makes sense that with so many unknowns entering the season, these teams might not have been prepared. Opt outs probably especially hurt, as those teams had to find replacements for their star players very quickly and a strength suddenly became a glaring weakness. My point is, Oklahoma, PSU, and LSU won't be this bad next year. I know there is a lot to hate about Michigan football right now, and this has nothing to do with the horrible schemes and play calling (which is another topic all together) but I don't know if we can use this Covid-19 season as a barometer for the health of the program.
With that said, I think we've seen enough from Don Brown even when he has everything going for him that he is not the guy we want or need and this has to be his last year. Gattis was dealt a really bad hand this year with the offensive turnover. Hard to run or pass the ball when your offensive line can't pick up any blocks. If Harbaugh and crew survive this season, I expect something closer to the 9-10 win seasons we've been accustomed to rather than this dumpster fire. Still no where close to OSU but were not Rutgers either.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^
I take exception to the 2019 Penn State game being included in the list of losses marked by lack of emotion, effort, and preparation. The team did start slow and got done BIG early. However, they fought back with valiant effort and showed that the team could persevere and compete in a hostile environment.
Your point about the trends in Michigan losses stands though.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^
Yeah true. They definitely fought back in that one. In the post, I noted it as the one exception in that they didn't fold and it really felt like they had a chance to win (one of the themes in the losses is the team's inability to make a late-game comeback, even when it's one score or there's time for two possessions). But yes that Penn State game is definitely the exception.
(the flip side of this coin is last year's Army game which featured all of these same patterns but resulted in a W. That game was kind of like surviving a fiery plane crash that skidded to a stop on the runway and somehow no one was killed or hurt. Yeah you arrived safely but it was not fun - almost feels like it doesn't count.)
November 19th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
Should we accept the fact that this COVID season is a totally anomally?
Depends...ask yourself how much would be different without Covid and with Nico & Ambry? My guess is, it puts an MSU win under our belts, but does not prevent the Wiscy debacle and Indiana still probably finds a way to beat us. So, we're 2-2 instead of 1-3. That's not a huge swing, but makes us feel more like a step back rather than a complete debacle.
Although not having Nico & Ambry hurts, the main question marks going into this season have turned out about as bad as possible. The o-line is not any good. We can't run the ball. The QB is not effective. And, the play calling issues are just like the first half of last year. It also hurts both starting DEs & OTs are out. We have very little upperclassman leadership playing.
Now if we could hypothetically insert Nico & Ambry back in, stay injury free, and somehow convince Ruiz to return for his senior year to anchor the middle of the line I like our team a lot more with those 3 seniors to help lead. But, we're missing a lot of upperclass leadership and are mightly struggling. I guess it's good for next year when all those guys would be gone anyways. It will be important to get Hutch and McGrone back for 2021. Hopefully getting Barnhart, Green, Henning, Jackson, & Sainristill more snaps will pay off for next year. I personally don't see JH getting canned or leaving on his own either way, which means he's back for 2021. The recruiting has not yet taken much of a dip. Our biggest loss is Benny. While Edwards would be nice, he's a luxury with all the RBs back for another year and Corum already looks good. But, it's hard to project what the rest of the conference will look like next year and who will return when given the extra year of eligibility. PSU is still struggling at QB. Indiana has several seniors, but they may come back as I don't know if they project well in the NFL. OSU will be out of our league no matter who they lose. MSU will be MSU. Unfortunately Wiscy continues to be on our schedule every year and looks tough with their plug and play o-line & defense and now with Mertz. My main hope is that the interior o-line and the DT situation improves with another year of development. But, we probably need a new d-line coach and maybe a new d-coordinator. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
Thanks for this well thought out response. Totally agree with everything you said. At this point I think we know what Harbaugh's teams are. They rely on superior talent in order to beat teams. Without the talent, this team crumbles. That's 100% coaching faults. So the caveat to that is the recruiting and development need to be stellar to compensate the poor scheme, which has not been the case.
I've seen lots of posts, blogs, hot takes wondering how we (or how PSU, LSU, Minnesota) got to this point. There are obviously a lot of contributing factors with faults existing in the program previously that are compounded with a rebuilding offense as well as COVID uncertainty and attrition all culminating into this season from hell. You are right, take out the COVID factor and we are probably looking at a total rebuild, just not one so horrible. Probably 4-5 losses, which sucks but is not we need to sterilize the stadium after the season level of suck.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
Unfortunately, a lot of this has to come back to our CEO. The team as a whole is just too disjointed. There are too many issues in too many areas. Talent, coaching, scheme, execution, effort, etc. It's a holistic overarching problem with this program and that means the HC has to go. Can we get so lucky to get a new coaching regime next year? Probably not. Will just getting a new d-coordinator, d-line coach, and maybe someone to replace Shoop and/or actually have in coaching in person be enough? IMHO, no. That may solidify the defense. Maybe another year of development of Hinton & Mazi creates functional DTs. If Hutch & McGrone come back and Vilain/Ojabo can take a step next year the d-line is functional. If the d-line is functional maybe Ross can do his job or if not Colson or Mullings can take his job. Dax is back. Green next year should be OK. We still badly need another CB. Can Seldon be that guy in year #2? I don't see a savior in the 2021 class so that guy has to already be on the roster.
On the other side of the ball, the RBs should be fine. The WRs should be fine, but not spectacular. Same with the TEs. Can another year of development improve the o-line and QB? I have my doubts. Can JJ come in and be a starter off the jump? I have doubts on that too. I just don't know where we are as a program. I think we need new leadership from the top. Bring in your own assistants. Rejuvenate the program. We've seen this happen before in year one of Hoke & JH. But, this time we need someone with the ability to keep building who has a long term plan.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^
Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan thus far has been an abject failure on all fronts. I do think we need a coaching change. I just don't know if I want one to occur as a result of a dumpster fire year that was magnified because of Covid where we make a reactionary hire of "whoever is available". Some people think this is our future. Being a bottom dweller in the BIG 10. I still think we are a middle to upper class BIG 10 team (just as we have been every other year of Harbaugh's tenure. I guess that is yet to be determined. What I fear is that we hire someone for the sake of change and end up with a Brady Hoke, which just sets our program back even further and we are closer to Nebraska or FSU than USC or Texas.
There are pieces of this team that I really like for 2021 (all of the things you brought up). I think Milton flashed enough brilliance that with a year under his belt and with better support, he can be a great QB (recency bias aside). And the offensive line can't get any worse, so we should expect a better running game and passing game next year just from that progression. The only change I am confident needs to happen is Brown is replaced.
If 2021 doesn't see the major improvements described, then there is nothing left to discuss. Lick our wounds and restart would be the only option.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Question: Why do we seem to lose players early to the NFL that are not high draft picks and young backups leave the program right at the time they would become the featured starters?
November 19th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
While I do believe that this season will forever have an asterisk by it because of COVID and the constant uncertainty that virtually everyone currently faces about having a game on a given Saturday, never mind that we weren't going to have a season at one point, I also believe there are things that could have been done to have a decent go at the games we have and will play. We simply haven't done any of it, or at least, it hasn't appeared on the field as yet.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^
Mentally I'm already in the 2021 season. What's the point of even analyzing this year? Write it off as a loss and move on. When not losing to OSU by 3 scores would be considered a moral victory, we've already lost. I'll still watch the games of course. Will never not watch. But mentally I have already checked out. *shrug emoji*
November 19th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
With all the negs the OP is getting, sure is a grumpy bunch today.
Maybe MadHatter, DarkerBlue or someone else can point everyone in the direction of their local dispensary.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
No. Next question
November 19th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
There's a version of this season for Michigan where they could be 1-3 or 2-2 and it would be reasonable to call it an anomally due to COVID, especially given the youth of the team and the injuries. But, what we have seen is not that version. The lack of organization and basic planning can't be explained away by COVID and is a pretty harsh indicator of where this program is, regardless of pandemic.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^
If we win out, the season would still be a failure. A total failure. That game against MSU is worse than “the punt” game.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
A. Yes
2. We still suck.
D. PSU/UM/Minn = all bad. Calling bad teams bad is... not really that insightful spare the fact that they were all "good" last year?
November 19th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
Tell that to the good teams. If we’re consistent in anything it’s losing against the best opponents we play. This year to change it up some we also decided to lose to a shitty MSU team. At least we’re willing to make some changes to the status quo.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
Season has been very real. Coaches coach, players play, nothing has changed in that regard, the game of football is still the game of football.
The Harbaugh era has been middling / average now descending sharply. Time to move on, try some new blood.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
Funny how only hapless teams have this take
November 19th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
A few things for the OP to consider:
- Just because it's been a "bad" year in terms of Covid-related impacts on sports or players opting out, in no way can excuse the job JH, not just his assistants, has done. He is the end all, be all and his leash should be so tight it's at the point of snapping. Roster turnover or not, it's not like these kids woke up one morning and forgot how to play football. We're just a bad, poorly coached team with limited skills.
- You cannot for one second convince me that Nico Collins or Ambry Thomas's exclusion from this season has made them this bad... We got absolutely destroyed by IU and UW. The MSU game only looks close in the box score. The game itself was really never in doubt. We might actually lose to Rutgers this Saturday. Think about that...
- Joe Milton may be a new QB in terms of game experience but he's been here long enough we shouldn't really have to talk about "breaking him in". Even if he was half as good as his hype was, talk of a QB change 5 games into the season is never instilling confidence.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
Again, none of what I wrote was intended to excuse the poor coaching job of Harbaugh and crew (I said so as much in my post). I think a lot of others have hit the nail on the head. While COVID is not responsible for how bad our team is, it has highlighted the worst parts of our team/coaching deficiencies and left no where to hide. The caveat is, we wouldnt be THIS bad if it weren't for COVID. We would probably be a 4-5 loss season and lots of people would still be clamoring for a coaching change but I doubt it would have been this bad.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
If Michigan only had one win but they beat MSU I would say yes. But that loss is horseshit.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
covid or no covid... we are not a good football program right now. players and coaches look broken. all programs have same challenges re covid....no excuses...we just stink right now and getting worse, not better
November 19th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
I think it does just shine a spotlight on the team’s deficiencies. In the past there has been a good chunk of the schedule Michigan could simply out-talent. Attrition, opt-outs, and injuries mean we can’t do that this year. And recruiting hasn’t been at the level where it can be “next man up”. Combine that with poor preparation and coaching and you have a recipe for disaster.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
I mostly think we can discount this season, but the MSU game was really damn bad. That team is horrific. Teams that are young seem to be uncharacteristically bad this year and teams that are experienced seem to be uncharacteristically good. That still doesn't make up for the MSU game. I'm on the fire Don Brown team rather than the fire Jim Harbaugh team. I can forgive an offense as young as ours struggling. I can't forgive a defense being shredded by the "run in a straight line really fast and I'll lob a moonball" offense. That's what happened against MSU.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
Absolutely Not. This is year 6. The defensive system has been in place for multiple years. The offensive system is not new this year. The struggles we are having are a direct result of poor coaching decisions, misses on the recruiting trail and a myriad of things that would be in place with or without COVID.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
Did not read.
Assumed OP was Catchafire. Surprised I was wrong.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^
All of those programs capitalize on up years. Harbaugh hasn't.
Give Jim the talent of a 7 win team and he will get you 9 wins. Give him the talent of an 11 or 12 win team and he will win 9 games. (SD of 1).
He will turtle to avoid the bad losses against teams like Army and he will turtle down 2 scores with 4 minutes left making it almost impossible to beat good teams like at ND. He has never won a close game against a good team. All of his big wins, his team got up early and then turtled their way to a lopsided win through ball control. If his teams get down at all, game over. It is hard to win when your team only has one avenue to victory.
He doesn't understand the dynamics of the modern game. He has shown no reason to believe he will ever figure it out.
His DC that gave up historic numbers in back to back years to OSU was blindsided by criticism of his defense. The whole staff is out of touch.
November 19th, 2020 at 5:26 PM ^
Short answer, probably. The world is messed up. Harbaugh is either walking away in January to NFL or he’ll sign extension in January
November 19th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
Although I will say, no matter what, the loss to MSU was the most embarrassing loss in 20 years. MSU sucks, and we looked worse. That was the game that changed my mind on harbaugh. Not acceptable
November 19th, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
If we were going to have a meltdown I suppose this was the "season" to do it. Please just beat Rutgers
November 19th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
Anomaly? No.
Went JH leaves, we can rebuild. Until then, this shitshow will continue until even the bluest bloods get sick of what we used to be like 50 years ago.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:24 PM ^
Yes. This year is a glorified scrimmage and I think it's obvious the coaches are treating is as such. This blog... not so much.
November 19th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^
That's an indictment not an excuse. They sure aren't getting paid like it's a glorified scrimmage.
November 20th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^
Their pay doesn't differ between the off-season and the season. And this season is all off-season, imo.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:57 PM ^
Only if you're willing to accept that Harbaugh's success at Stanford was an anomally.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:01 PM ^
No, we shouldnt. Insightful i know, but no.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
There is a very wide space between OSU and Rutgers, and 90% or more of the teams in college ball fit in there somewhere.
November 19th, 2020 at 8:48 PM ^
No. We got our ass kicked by a god awful MSU team that won’t win another game this season. Make no mistake about it. That game was a fucking ass kicking. Mel Tucker walked right up to Harbaugh, stole his Halloween candy, made him watch as he ate every single piece, and then punched him in the face just for good measure.
This team is abysmally coached at every single position, the defense is awful at all three levels, we have no QB development whatsoever, and it’s entirely possible that the defense is even worse next year. That’s all not even including what this team is in for in Columbus next month. To put it mildly, OSU will be the Enola Gay to our Hiroshima.
Harbaugh does not get a pass this year.
November 19th, 2020 at 10:33 PM ^
I hope not bc hockey is 3-0
November 20th, 2020 at 12:49 AM ^
It's worth pointing out that Michigan was ranked 125th in returning starters according to ESPN back in February, which includes a new starter at the most important position. That was before Nico and Ambry decided to opt out. Then we lost Hutch, Paye, Mayfield, and Hayes to injury. I don't think there's been a Michigan team with this little experience in a looooong time, and this is during a season when there was no spring practice to bring new guys up to speed. If you look at the rankings, you'll see that the teams that are catastrophically bad given their talent levels (MSU, LSU, etc.) are in the same place. Meanwhile, teams that are weirdly good (Northwestern, Indiana) returned a ton of production.
November 20th, 2020 at 4:24 AM ^
I was pro cancel the season. I don't even think anyone should be playing football right now. I'm sure Nebraska fans, at the very least, agree with me.
November 20th, 2020 at 4:24 AM ^
I was pro cancel the season. I don't even think anyone should be playing football right now. I'm sure Nebraska fans, at the very least, agree with me.
November 20th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^
I completely agree, I was anti-season. There's just too much going, too many unnatural distractions, and too many opportunities for inconsistency. Why tf even do it? For the sake of squeezing out the very minimum in college football entertainment? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!!! lol. I had to take advantage of the post and get that one out.
November 20th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
No matter what trajectory covid placed this season on, Michigan had absolutely no damn business or reason losing to phlegmSU. Harbaugh has to be held accountable 100%. He should have prepared a bulletproof scheme which incorporated either of his QBs and any available players. This was a blatant lack of planning. You don't entrust something as big as an in-state rivalry to your players' abilities alone. You gotta coach that importance into them and then make rotations/subs that suit your scheme as specific players under perform. I blame no one but Harb
November 20th, 2020 at 6:33 PM ^
Liberty in its second year in the FBS can go on the road and beat ACC schools in shootouts in a Covid season when their former president screwed the university.
Ohio State hasn’t missed a beat, Notre Dame is rolling, Wisconsin came off two/three weeks of no football and marched into Ann Arbor and kicked our teeth in. So the answer here is not just no, but heck no. Don’t care what’s going on mediocrity is not to be accepted.