Sam Webb: U-M Has "Slight Lead" for Otis Reese

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

With one week until Signing Day (Feb. 7), Sam updated the recruitment of Otis Reese this morning on WTKA. He said Michigan has a "slight lead" for him thanks in large part to his relationship with Chris Partridge. It didn't help Georgia that his main recruiter left, but proximity to Georgia is in their favor.

He also said that unlike the Aubrey Solomon recruitment - everyone knew for weeks he was going to Michigan - this one is going to come right down to the wire.

Dillon

January 31st, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

This is a hot take for multiple reasons.

1. They are playing in vastly different offenses. Speight's in a strictly game manager role. he's playing do not make a mistake football. Shea is playing in a spread and has to be the guy taking over a game. in Shea's 10 games as you pointed out he averages 39.2 attempts per game. Speight averaged 20... he's going to throw picks when that's the offense you're running.

2. It's clear Speight's game is lacking in a multitude of areas. His inability to hit the deep ball (see wisky game where he missed a wide open Darboh 5 times), his accuracy issues, his happy feet in the pocket in 2017 due to previous injury, zero mobility. What he does well is dissect a play and make the right checks, though he can't hit the receivers to execute. When you watch Shea's game he can do all these things that Speight stuggled with. Deep ball accuracy, short game accuracy, he's mobile and he's just a playmaker in general. 

3. I love when people bring up the "well he played great against inferior teams," you know who didn't?... 2017 Wilton Speight. Even then Wilton Speight had 4 games in which he threw for multiple TDs in 2016, those teams included Hawai'i, UCF, Illinois, and Maryland. So this narrative against Shea is tired. He didn't play well twice in 2017 against LSU and Bama who have FAR superior talent to Ole Miss. So does Auburn and he threw 346 and 2 TDs and no picks. 

If you HONESTLY would take Speight in 2016 or 2017 over Shea Patterson, you need help or need the latest version of Football for Dummies. 

mgobaran

January 31st, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^

I would take 2016 Speight over 2017 Shea Patterson for 2018 Michigan. From the homework I've done, that was the conclusion I came to. I don't feel like spending an hour and digging threw all the stats again. You can yell at Brian when he says the same things I did. 

He is a high four star talent kid, who has never played in a pro-style offense, will have to find out how to be productive while throwing 1/2 the amount of passes. My biggest fear is the gunslinger mentality is coached out of him in order to suppress turnovers and it causes him to overthink things. It is just too many unknowns and what we do know does not translate directly to Michigan or the B1G. 

And no, I do not care what he did against Auburn. Ole Miss was down 35-3 at half. His 51 passes at 6.8 YPA looks like a good defensive gameplan when the game is over at halftime. His other 1.5 games against Top 25 defenses put up a whopping 0 TD/5 INT ratio, and 5.4 YPA on 52 passes.

mgobaran

February 1st, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^

Definitely part of the solution, but not the missing piece. Vast OL/WR improvement will be required just to be a legit B1G contender as well. By legit I mean controlling our own destiny when we face off against OSU.

He is a very talented kid, imo, but he has some shortcommings. He probably has the most talent on our roster, but he has to overcome some disadvantages in order to make it onto the field as a starter, day 1. 

swalburn

January 31st, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^

We have actually been recruiting linebacker quite well.  We had Singleton, Anthony, and Ross last year and they were all in the top 211 composite.  McGrone looks an absolute beast in this class.  I hope we land Reese but I am more more worried about our recruiting in the trenches.

Don

January 31st, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

It's obviously based on the constant and numerous contacts and conversations that Sam has with people behind the scenes, both within the Michigan program and those closer to the Reese camp, including those actually down in Georgia.

The fact that he describes Michigan's lead as "tenuous" also obviously means that Reese isn't giving strong signals directly in either direction; if Otis is a normal 18-year old, he's probably conflicted, and it's also likely that people in his family and circle of friends may have a variety of different opinions of where they want him to go and/or what they think he'll do.

Sam has to digest all this information from disparate sources and make an educated guess of where he thinks the situation stand right now. That's all.

He didn't make a prediction, and there's certainly no indication he will have a "gut feeling" before signing day. He's not a soothsayer or wizard, and doesn't pretend to be infallible, either. I think his natural optimism sometimes gets the better of him, but there have been plenty of times over the past decade when I was skeptical about his judgement on other highly-rated players and he was proven right that Michigan would land them.

You can ignore or disregard what Sam says, but he's not just some hack pulling stuff out of his ass. If he was, he wouldn't have been given such significant access to the program across three different coaching regimes.

Champeen

January 31st, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

You guys are idiots.  This is Michigans WORST recruiting cycle under Harbaugh, and we sit at #15.

15th ranked class is his worst recruiting year?  Let that sink in.  If Michigan's worst year on the field was ranked 15th, we would all be pretty damn happy and sign up for that.

lilpenny1316

January 31st, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^

After two straight top 10 classes, #15 is nothing to get upset about.  But there's a lot of movement on NSD because a lot of the big commits still wait until that day to announce.  Maybe there are some surprises and we slip into the top 10.  And maybe there are some disappointments and we fall out of the top 20.  Anything is possible outside of a top 5 class or falling out of the top 25.

If anything, this season shows that we can't start recruiting like OSU and Alabama until we're winning like them.

andrewgr

January 31st, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^

The #15 class is a distant 3rd behind OSU and PSU in the Big 10 East, so surely 3rd place in the division seems like a reasonable expectation moving forward.  I believe wins against MSU are about to start piling up.

jabberwock

January 31st, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^

"3rd place in the division seems like a reasonable expectation moving forward"

So we can expect to play in the B1G Championship game right around the time the suns burns out?

Call me crazy, but i think with the highest paid coaching staff in the country we should maybe, you know, aim a little higher.

 

ih8losing

January 31st, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^

This is Sam prepping everyone for Otis going to UGA. I too am more concerned with OL than LB at this stage but it would still be great to have Otis join the team. 

MWolverine7

January 31st, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^

Sorry but I don’t recall one of Sam’ small lead scenarios ever going our way. Sam also charges for information so I’m sure he wants to continue to add subscribers leading up to signing day. If we get him I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

GoBlueSouth

January 31st, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^

It is very likely that Reese will stay in Georgia. After their trip to the NC game and losing by a hair, there is a huge push by Smart to keep Georgia talent in Georgia. Kirby is from Georgia and his Dad was a highly respected head football coach. It’s like Meyer in Ohio