Revisiting Preseason Predictions & Definition of Successful Season
Before the season started, I had them going 10-2. I knew they had a young team, but I assumed it was a more talented & athletic team than years past so that would make up for it. It’ll be interesting to see how they close out the season. How’s your preseason prediction looking right now?
From your perspective, what does a successful season looks like for this team. Did it already fail due to the losses to MSU and/or Penn State? Would you consider beating Wisconsin on the road a marquee win? I’m sure everyone would agree a win over Ohio State would make it successful, but let’s say they lose to Ohio State, but win the rest of their games and the respective bowl game, finishing 10-3. Is that considered a successful season to you?
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
That's what my daddy said, so it must be true.
I have a sneaky feeling that the OSU game this year is where we swing the rivalry back into our direction. People forget we were one possession away from winning probably half the games since 2005. All we need is a good, healthy quarterback and it's looking like we're going to have that until at least DMac leaves.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
Just beat OSU. I want to see Peters progress within the offense as well and begin taking command, but seriously, just beat OSU.
That's probably the only thing that can make up for the disgusting travesty that was this year's MSU game.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
Basically have to beat OSU to make up for MSU. It would be nice to win a tough road game in Madison, but winning out is asking a lot. I don't care about the bowl game.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
Beat OSU and that erases the early season mistakes, and people will remember that more.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:37 PM ^
Winning against either Wisconsin or Ohio State is asking a lot. Winning out is just not going to happen.
November 1st, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^
I agree. But it's time to win a game we shouldn't on paper and I'd prefer that one to be OSU.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^
I hope people dont shit their pants (especially if we beat Wisco). Looking at things today, it'd be hard to see a case of us beating OSU.
we win 3 out of 4 against wisco and dont get blown out by OSU and a bowl win and thats a solid year.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^
The problem is if we lose to OSU, Harbaugh's Michigan resume then includes two games lost we shouldn't have (2016 Iowa, 2017 MSU) without winning a single game where we weren't more or less expected to lose (barring 2017 win in Madison). Together with the three cointoss losses to MSU (2015), OSU (2016), FSU, and that's a pretty hard pill to swallow to lose to OSU again, even if on paper we should.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
but under my best case scenario we are 10-3 three years in a row over achieving first year, under achieving the second and slightly underachiving year 3 (record looks good, losses to rivals bad). if we lose to msu psu osu next year than ya we have some serious thinking to do.
And if Peters plays pretty well, you love everything we are bringing back next year Minus the O Line. ask 4-8 notre dame or 3-9 MSU about down years.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
They're not "terrible", but we should still feel bad.
MSU is a slightly above average team who is overachieving relative to preseason expectations; Michigan is a slightly above average team who is underachieving relative to preseason expectations.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^
I had losses to PSU, WI and OSU. I also thought we would lose one of the following: UF, IU, MSU or MN. I now think we have a chance of beating WI on the road and play a close game against OSU. Maryland on the road could be a tough game. So, it possible we could win 9 or 10 games.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
IMO finishing the regular season 8-4 is totally acceptable. Anything greater than that would be a surprising pleasant development at this point. Getting 2 more victories could be a challenge with a RS Freshman QB at the offensive helm. (I started the year expecting 9-3 for the regular season, directed by a healthy 2016 pre-Iowa version of Speight.)
November 1st, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:19 PM ^
Having a healthy Sp8 may have been enough to beat MSU. Though, Sp8 did not look good during pre-conference play. Odds are we split the next 4 games and finish 8-4. Next season our new QB will still be in learning mode, plus we'll have tough road games at MSU and at OSU. PSU will be a tough game at home. May be 10-2 next season. 2019 is looking like the best chance to win the B1G and reach the playoffs.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
Schedule-wise, 2018 appears to be near an impossibility. If you figure you have to win 2 of 3 road toss up games, that probability is only 50% (LLL, LLW, LWL, WLL, WWL, WLW, LWW, WWW). Then, you have to beat the west champ at a neutral site, 50%. 50%*50% = 25%. Then, you have to win the semifinal, neutral site, top four team, 50% chance. Now we're down to 12.5%. Then, you have to win the final, neutral site, top four team, 50% chance. So the odds of winning it all in 2018, even assuming we're a top 4 team, is only 6.25% just due to the schedule and the playoff gauntlet.
2019 is better, but road games at Penn State and Wisconsin are difficult, as we found out this year. If you drop one of those, you have to beat all of ND, MSU and OSU at home. That's why I'm dieting, eating right, and exercising, so I'll be around for our national championship in 2027.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:31 PM ^
I don't judge bowl game additions to the record at this point until I know the opponent/situation.
The way I see it (this is in line with what I thought before the season):
- 10-2: Great/successful season given the youth
- 9-3: Solid season, meets expectations without exceeding them.
- 8-4: Disappointing, but not bad season. If we wind up here losing to UW/OSU, the reason it'll be disappointing is that we should not have lost to MSU at home.
- 7-5: Bad season/failure. If we lose to both OSU/Wisconsin, AND to one of Maryland/Minnesota, this season will be a failure in my book.
Before the season I was expecting 9-3 with a victory over Florida, a loss to Penn State, and a victory over one of OSU/Wisconsin. The MSU loss is a pretty big letdown. At this point, 9-3 is possible, but I think 8-4 is more likely, with that close MSU loss being the difference between meeting expectations and underachieving.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:10 PM ^
I don't think Wisconsin has the offense to blow us out. OSU certainly does. I think wisconsin will be hard pressed to score more than 20 against us. They aren't as dynamic as PSU or OSU. That said can we score more than 20 against Wisconsin's defense? My hunch is no.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^
Beating Ohio is a successful season. I don't care about the rest this go around. Wouldn't mind watching an Auburn match up in the Outback bowl though...
November 1st, 2017 at 4:35 PM ^
Unless we beat Ohio State. This season has been a failure. Losing to a mediocre MSU team does not make a successful season.
There will be deluded Michigan fans talking about how we were slated for 8-4 but nobody predicted we would lose to a 3-9 Michigan state that got blown out by Northwestern, needed to come back 2 scores against Indiana, and lost to Northwestern.
Beating Rutgers and Maryland means nothing to me.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
we should have a mid-week snowflakes thread.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
An overall record 10-2 is a solid standard deviation above most preseason estimates of Michigan's record for 2017, which IMHO qualifies as being a homer. Here's the rundown of preseason predicted conference / overall records from FPI, S&P+ and the Power Rank:
FPI: 6-3 / 8-4
S&P+: 6-3 / 9-3
PR: 6-3 / 8-4
The only significant difference in terms of the game-by-game breakdowns is essentially a swap of Michigan State for Florida, and of course, all of these presumed that UM had its returning QB for more than 3 games.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
Coming into the season I did not know what to expect with all the young players expect to start and/or contribute. With so much youth and inexperience, I wanted to see development. I was actually more concerned about the defense especially the LBs and DBs. I thought 2-3 losses seemed likely.
Despite the early offensive struggles, defense and special teams revised my expectations much higher. Then MSU/PSU happened. Now I am back to seeing development and not record as the measure of success.
The last several weeks the OL has shown life in their run blocking. If that continues with aditional strong games from Peters and the RBs, that is the kid of development that will make this a successful season. The defense is already there and should stay elite next year even without Hurst. The offense being feared and not an eye sore is success. If Wisconsin and OSU just maul our offense into a lot of punts and turnovers, then I probably won't feel very successful however the final scores turn out.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
8-4 could mean very different things in terms of prospects for next year based on the actual flow of the games.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:44 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:44 PM ^
My hope every season is 10 wins, including wins vs OSU, MSU and ND*.
This season I expected 9-3, splitting the big four (FLA/PSU/WIS/OSU) and losing one we shouldn't. We are right on track for that. Yes it sucks that the one we shouldn't was to MSU, but it is clear that Dantonio renewed is contract with the devil to get all the luck in that game.
Win the minnows and split the Wisconsin/OSU games and it will be what I expected. I'd like the OSU to at least get to one of my goals.
*When we play them
November 1st, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^
will get slammed the next 2 weeks.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:48 PM ^
10-3 sounds good. Not great, not bad. The easy comparison would be to look at the Hoke/RR years and point out that this could have easily turned into a 5-6 win season instead of 8-9-10 after the MSU dibocle. I want to get away from doing that, because under Harbz more can be expected. Next 4 weeks are huge for the program heading forward.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:54 PM ^
Continuing to build confidence along the offensive line and QB position are what I'm looking for. Solid showings against higher quality teams will build confidence for the team going into next season.
Minnesota, Maryland, and Wisconsin are all beatable teams. With Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin all slated for bowls ahead of Michigan at the moment, that should result in a manageable bowl opponent. A bowl victory could be crucial for momentum into the off season.
I said 9-3 or 10-2 at the start of the season, leaning toward 9-3. That's still doable.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:20 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
Don't know much about Minnesota, but Maryland has no QB. If their started didn't go down, I think we could be in trouble (especially on the road), but their 3rd string guy isn't good.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:48 PM ^
Minnesota lost to Maryland at home, so that should tell you something.
Minnesota has played arguably the easiest schedule in the conference so far (besides Wisconsin) and has 4 losses.
They went 3-0 in the non-conference, but they played Buffalo (were in a close game throughout), Oregon State, and Middle Tennessee State (also fairly close).
Gophers are 1-4 in the conference.
None of their four losses were games that ever as if Minny had a shot to win. MSU got close towards the end, but Spartans were up big for most of the game and never trailed. Their closest Big Ten game is actually probably their one win, against Illinois at home.
They are bad.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
Minnesota lost to Maryland at home, so that should tell you something.
Minnesota has played arguably the easiest schedule in the conference so far (besides Wisconsin) and has 4 losses.
They went 3-0 in the non-conference, but they played Buffalo (were in a close game throughout), Oregon State, and Middle Tennessee State (also fairly close).
Gophers are 1-4 in the conference.
None of their four losses were games that ever felt as if Minny had a shot to win. MSU got close towards the end, but Spartans were up big for most of the game and never trailed. Their closest Big Ten game is actually probably their one win, against Illinois at home.
They are bad.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^
Going into the season I predicted a 10-0 start, but losses to Wisc and OSU for a 10-2 finish.
I obviously underestimated Penn State. I expected MSU to do much better than 3-9, but I still thought M would blow the doors off them.
I thought Speight would be better than last season, he was worse. I still thought he'd eventually come around if he'd stayed healthy, but that didn't happen. I also expected more out of our WRs--especially Kekoa Crawford. And while I knew the RT position would be a weakness at the outset of the season, I thought it would improve quickly. While the defense overall has played better than I expected, it hasn't been enough to offset the areas in which the offense was worse than I anticipated.
Now I am expecting an 8-4 record, with a good chance at 9 wins either by stealing one from Wisc or OSU or by winning a bowl game. I'd be okay with 9-4. I'd be ecstatic with 10-3. An 8-5 finish would be kind of a disappointment, but I feel like the program is in good hands so I'd remain optimistic heading into the off-season.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
Maybe? Sorta?
I mean, I just wanted to enjoy a season of college football. I have thus far. So it's a win in my book.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
My preseason expectation was 8 to 9 wins. I thought 9-3 would have been just fine given how much this team lost. I know a lot of younger guys saw the field last year, so it wasn't like, say, West Virginia, losing 43 seniors. Anyway, what is frustrating to me is the coaching staff's insistance on sticking with JOK. The MSU game is an easy win with a quarterback playing halfway competently.