RE: Matt Campbell, et al, what does it really take to go from midlevel prodigy to winning the Big 10?

Submitted by Buy Bushwood on January 11th, 2021 at 2:40 PM

Because it certainly isn't a sure thing or anything close to it.  There are essentially 4 transcendent coaches of the last 20 years, Meyer, Saban, Swinney, Carroll. All coming from pretty different backgrounds. Behind them are a graveyard of people like Matt Campbell who were hot and up-and-coming, making no translation whatsoever to the next level. What makes anyone think Matt Campbell will consistently beat Ryan Day and compete with a 20-year juggernaut?  The next best thing, competing with PSU, Wiscy, we already have.  In recent years, if there's one coach that Brian, Ace, etc, really saw as a can't miss genius it was Tom Herman.  I remember Brian saying on a podcast when Herman was at Houston that he hoped he'd get a career job "like USC" so we'd never have to worry about him coming back to OSU. Rich Rod was a similar hot candidate with as good or better credentials.  All flops.  Running a major program is a unique skill, not directly translatable from success at lower levels.  No one would have predicted from Swinney's resume that he'd build a historically above-average program into a Death Star.  What's the secret sauce for these fellas?  

scfanblue

January 11th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^

I don’t give a shit what resources they have- hiring Campbell is the same as bringing Brady Hoke back who won at San Diego State with less. All of our resources helped him too right? If Michigan does decide to move on they can do better than Matt Campbell 

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trueblueintexas

January 11th, 2021 at 5:57 PM ^

How many ISU games have you watched in the past 2-3 years? How many UM games in that same time? 

I have watched a grand total of 5 ISU games and every UM game during that time. I can offer the following observations: 

  • ISU is prepared for the game. You don't see schemes and plays which don't seem to align with who they are playing
  • ISU makes adjustments during the game which make a difference
  • ISU has been consistent in their offensive identity
  • ISU plays hard
  • ISU manages the clock appropriately to the game situation

compared with...

  • Michigan has often times underperformed to the talent on the field
  • Michigan routinely mismanages the clock
  • On defense the team often times could be taken advantage of in the first half and then Don Brown made adjustments at half-time which made a difference. 
  • The offense has often looked disjointed game to game and in at least two seasons seemed to completely switch philosophy half way through

Every one of those can be directly tied back to the head coach. Maybe ISU has looked like a dumpster fire in every other game, but I doubt it.

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JonnyHintz

January 12th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^

SDSU is routinely one of the more talented programs not only in their conference, but in all of the G5. Iowa State is routinely one of the WORST P5 programs and is far behind their peers in facilities, funding, and has the disadvantage of being located in Ames freaking Iowa. 
 

Not remotely the same at all. Winning in a P5 conference with everything ISU has working against them is far more impressive than anything Hoke EVER did. 

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Blue@LSU

January 11th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^

Agree about the obsession. It's true that Campbell has had some impressive wins at ISU, beating OU twice and a top-5 TCU. These wins have been pointed out a number of times on this board. But in addition to focusing on his upset wins, it is also interesting to look at the losses under Campbell.

  • 2016: Northern Iowa, Iowa, TCU, Baylor, Ok. St., Texas, KSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia
  • 2017: Iowa, Texas, West Virginia, Ok. St., KSU
  • 2018: Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Wash. State
  • 2019: Iowa, Baylor, Ok. State, Oklahoma, KSU, Notre Dame
  • 2020: Louisiana, Ok. St, Oklahoma

So yes Campbell’s ISU teams have had some impressive upset wins. But it should be recognized that they are also:

  • 0-4 against Iowa
  • 2-3 against Kansas State
  • 1-4 against Oklahoma State 

Would UM fans be thrilled if we beat OSU twice but, in the meantime, went 0-4 against MSU, 1-4 against Penn State, and 2-3 against Indiana? 

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Eat Your Wheatlies

January 11th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^

I've never been on the Campbell bandwagon either. As a Toledo alum, I just always felt like his teams came up short and found ways to lose the division when they were favored or in good position to lock up a trip to Detroit. I was curious about the origin of my hesitations, and found some issues similar to the ones you noted above.

  • 0-4 against NIU (two of those games gave UT a chance to win the division)
  • 2-2 against Ball State (noteworthy because UT was always the favorite in these match ups)
  • Finished the '12 by losing 2 of last 3 conference games after starting 6-0 in the division
  • Finished the '13 season by losing the last 2 conference games
  • Finished the '15 season by losing to WMU at home with the division title on the line

I post this mostly because I felt like Campbell's Rocket teams almost always left me wanting and expecting a little bit more, and seemed to struggle down the stretch. Not sure if that has been a trend at ISU.

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MGrether

January 11th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^

I was talking to my sister, who is in HR about this today (she is a PSU alum): Organizational Structure. OSU  - through a combination of luck and skill - has done a superb job of transitioning leadership and succession planning. Their last "major overhaul" institutionally was Tressell. Tressell laid a foundation and reworked the athletic department for sustained football success. They lucked out with Meyer - because it is rare to have a coach who just happened to be a national champion winner sitting around who wanted to come back to Columbus. From Meyer, they already worked on hiring an positioning coaches for successful transitions. Even a program like Wisconsin, who ALWAYS overperforms their recruiting rankings has managed this well. The second thing is OSU's ability to recruit and manage their depth chart. They have a balanced and deep roster at practically every position.

If I was the AD, the first thing I would fix is the recruiting plan. I would mico-manage that to make sure we have a sound system of identification of talent, understanding depth, and building program relationships at the high school level (I feel Harbaugh did a good job of this when he arrived with the camps... and then it all fell apart and never go back on track). Then, I would look at single points of failure and how we can build systems that are dynamic to change with the landscape of college football, while also avoiding perpetual rebuilding.

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Don

January 11th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^

"Behind them are a graveyard of people like Matt Campbell"

Maybe let Matt Campbell actually fail at a big-time job before you assign him to a graveyard.

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matt1114

January 11th, 2021 at 3:18 PM ^

Honestly, I think it all falls on recruiting. Saban got to Alabama in 2007 and brought them from outside the top 10 in recruiting rankings(according to 247) to seemingly consistent top 5 finishes. I haven't looked through every single year, but Alabama went 7-6 in 2008, 12-2 in 2009, and has been a 0,1,2 loss team since then. That 2007/08 recruiting class must've been extremely well developed and coached, and being the top team in the country since then has made it consistently in the top 5. They "should" be so much better because their second/third-string players would be starters on most other teams. Osu has practically been the same, just not as long. Also with Clemson. 

IMO, it takes 1 or 2 recruiting classes that are extreme hits with no misses. Then the talent starts flowing to those places. 

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1408

January 11th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^

Tom Herman was not a flop at Texas.  They went in a different direction (in my view prematurely) due in large part to his relationship with big donors.  I'll venture a guess that his Texas tenure will be favorable to Sarkisian's.  

You hit a good point though - running a major program is a unique skill. Matt Campbell has shown the ability to run a program but he has not shown the ability to run a *major* program.  There is a difference.  Campbell has never even been around a major program.  Not as an assistant, not as a player, etc.  Before Urban made the jump from mid-major to a major program, he had already spent 6 years at a combo of Notre Dame and Ohio State as an assistant.  It's a very different animal and I personally don't think Campbell is up to the task (which is probably why he hasn't had an offer to leave ISU).

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AlbanyBlue

January 11th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^

I have to disagree here: at this time, we do not have a team that is competitive with Wisconsin. Since we appear to be regressing, we also have work to do to be competitive with PSU. If we put in that work, we will be competitive with PSU. But I think it will take more than that to be competitive with Wisconsin. Put more plainly, I don't think we will be competitive with Wisconsin while Harbaugh is our coach. I also think while we may be competitive with PSU in the future, I don't believe we will end up .500 or better with them in the Harbaugh era.

In answer to your question, the formula is the same as has been articulated in the other X threads:

  • Be able to do whatever it takes to recruit at an exceedingly high level. This requires buy-in from all levels -- admin, coach, coordinators, and position coaches.
  • Be talented enough to develop players to their ceilings -- again head coach, coordinators, position coaches, GAs.
  • Be exceedingly talented at technical aspects -- develop an effective scheme against all types of opponents, devour film and be able to mold the scheme to attacking the weaknesses of the opponent, be able to motivate players to get up for each and every game, and have exceptional in-game coaching ability.

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The Deer Hunter

January 11th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^

I'm not buying your bushwood.

In one take you're burying Campbell in the graveyard of hot up&comers then next asking who would have predicted Swinney... A total contradiction of shit you have no basis for. 

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My Name is LEGIONS

January 11th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^

The four you mentioned, took recruiting to another level...  there is a story out there somewhere on Meyer at OSU and the pain he caused in getting there... Saban has also mastered it.  Carroll locked down the west coast at the time, with everyone wanting to play at USC, and Swinney also is recruiting superbly.

The rest, are the rest, for that reason...

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MDwolverine

January 11th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^

Doesn't Matt Campbell currently resemble (not 100% but directionally) a Nick Saban at MSU?

The excitement over MC is that he's succeeding at a difficult place to succeed and lifting that program to heights they haven't been to before.

The naysayers are pointing out a lack of actual hardware and inability to beat their "rival" Iowa. 

I'm not claiming by any means that MC is the next Saban or a sure thing because that doesn't exist. A magic formula doesn't exist. A prototype or template doesn't exist. Which is exactly why "blue blood" programs like Michigan, USC, and Texas are all pretty mediocre lately. And why other programs, including the vaunted Bama, OSU, and Clemson have all had mediocre tenures.

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trustBlue

January 11th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^

Not really. There are a lot of coaches that have "succeeded at a difficult place to succeed and lifting that program to heights they haven't been to before" including Rich Rod (from 3-8 to 11-2 at WVU), Brady Hoke (from 4-8 to 12-1 at Ball State) and Jim Harbaugh (from 4-8 to 12-1 at Stanford). 

Its actually much easier to turn around a terrible program in a weak conference than it is take a team like Michigan that is already above average and elevate them to elite status.

 

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JFW

January 11th, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^

Its actually much easier to turn around a terrible program in a weak conference than it is take a team like Michigan that is already above average and elevate them to elite status.

It's my opinion that Michigan has some significant headwinds. We do have higher academic standards than Clemson/Bama. It's my opinion that we get the best shot from OSU, and one of the best shots from everyone else. Talking to other B1G teams I was surprised at how much they wanted to beat us. The RR/Hoke years, as well as this year, haven't covered us in glory. WE have a good team with some holes. 

Leveling up from 'Good' to 'Great' is very, very tough. 

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MDwolverine

January 11th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^

I'm not sure you understood what I was getting at. Just pointing out that MC's latest resume highlight (ISU), is a lot like Saban prior to him leading LSU to a national title in that they "brought a program to new heights" (MSU in Sabans case).

Wasn't saying that was a prerequisite for succeeding at a larger program. Hence the entire second half of the post that clarified that's not what I was saying and that there is no specific formula for successful coach.

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UNCWolverine

January 11th, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^

One or more of the following:

1. NIL moving the recruiting needle far enough to be consistenly on par with OSU/Alabama/Clemson.

2. Expanded playoffs moving the recruiting needle far enough to be consistenly on par with OSU/Alabama/Clemson.

3. OSU's program somehow regressing to the mean.

4. Michigan getting dirty AF in terms of being lax with boosters paying players and loose with admissions such as accepting anyone at both a HS and juco level.

That's it, that's the list. No coach will get us there without one or more of these things happening.

 

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JFW

January 11th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^

I'd love to see UM work the transfer portal and use NIL to the max extent. I really think we could have some advantages there. 

I just don't have alot of faith that the non football administration will be all over it, or want to do that (so gausch!) or even that our football team will pull it off. Having that happen despite my doubts would give me warm fuzzies. 

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Sten Carlson

January 11th, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^

It's always a crap-shoot of sorts and success is often times determined by the roster that the coach inherits (more specifically the QB), the level of the competition within the conference, and the level of commitment of the AD and the university/alums/boosters.

Michigan's inability to compete with OSU isn't anything new, and while Harbaugh is the current HC, it's not exclusively on him, per se.  Michigan, as an institution, has to identify and rectify the cause(s) of that failure or whomever is coaching the team will continue to fail.  Harbaugh was brought in as a response, and it was a logical response.  Unfortunately, it's not worked out the way we all imagined and hoped it would.  Why would Campbell suddenly be able to do what Michigan's last four coach could not? I am not saying that I don't like Campbell, nor that I am pleased with the state of the program.  I am saying that as this drags on into its second decade, it's becoming ever more apparent that this is a MICHIGAN problem, and as such, it's not a problem that simply hiring and firing is going to solve.

Unfortunately, I've begun to believe that Michigan being the issue is known within the coaching ranks and is considered a "bad job", and will continue to be until Michigan addresses and solves these issues -- and Harbaugh failing is even more evidence of this to other coaches.  I think this is why we ended up with Rich Rod (who admitted that he did not "due diligence" prior to accepting the job), and Hoke, and I think that Harbaugh was actually the ONLY experienced/qualified coach who would take the position.  I think he took the position to do what he could to try to turn it around and turn the perception of Michigan back into a "destination job" then pass it off to the next up-and-coming coach.  I know many will think this is ludicrous, but I have my reasons.  I know many think that this issue is AD malfeasance but if nobody wants the job, what is he supposed to do?

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MGoRimshot

January 11th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^

As to the OP post the mentioned Coaches are great coaches in their own right but are plugged into a larger ecosystem at their schools that let their ambitions blossom,  it takes both talent and an environment of "tolerance" to succeed.  On another subject , Harbaugh used to be fired up on the sideline as is mentioned frequently in these posts and a recruit's dad mentioned he is looking forward to seeing his son play for an unleashed Coach Harbaugh.  Question: Is there a way Coach may have been disciplined under our radar for overdoing the sideline enthusiasm and the term of the sanctions are ending?  Just thinking that there is more than we know about going on.  

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Sten Carlson

January 11th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^

Question: Is there a way Coach may have been disciplined under our radar for overdoing the sideline enthusiasm and the term of the sanctions are ending?

Disciplined by whom -- The University of Michigan or The Big 10 Conference?  The personal foul he incurred during the 2016 OSU, IIRC, was an Ohio High School Basketball foul, not anything on the books for B10 Football nor the NCAA.  My speculation was that Coach tried to "tone it down" because his antics, and the subsequent (bullshit) personal foul, really hit the team at a pivotal juncture in the most pivotal game of his tenure at Michigan.  

I agree with you, RimShot, there is A SHIT TON "more going on" than we know both within the Program, Michigan, the B10 and the entirety of CFB. 

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