RE: Matt Campbell, et al, what does it really take to go from midlevel prodigy to winning the Big 10?

Day will only be in C-Bus for another year  or two. 

I never thought the argument being made for Matt Campbell was that he'd consistently beat Ryan Day. I always thought the argument was "Harbaugh has had 6 years and has failed quite miserably, including historic blowout losses to OSU and other lesser talented B1G teams, therefore at least with Campbell we have a chance at...

A) Fully utilizing the talent we recruit.
B) Cementing our spot as #2 in the conference, as our recruiting suggests we should be, and no longer getting crushed by teams like Wisconsin or PSU...or losing to garbage programs like MSU.
C) Maybe beating Ohio State.

Ie. Harbaugh = tried and failed / we know what we have and it isn't working & Campbell = new coach, new possibilities.

Am I wrong in thinking this was the main driver behind the Matt Campbell push on the board?

We all knew was going to devolve into a Matt Campbell vs Jim Harbaugh redux but I'm actually going to address the content of the OP. Pete Carroll and Nick Saban are true coaching prodigies. Phenomenal X's and O's coaches who could also recruit and develop players at an amazing level. Carroll also took over a USC program that, on paper, should be the best job in country. The level of talent, particularly quarterbacking talent, near USC's campus, coupled with a total lack of elite schools within hundreds of miles, should spell success (yes, I realize it's not that simple in the hands of other mortals).

Urban Meyer is the greatest motivator in the history of the sport. I truly believe that. He puts Nick Saban and Pete Carroll to shame in this department. He also has absolutely no ethics when it comes to running his football teams. I know it *seems* like that's the case with all of these successful programs but I assure you they are not all the same. Meyer is plenty smart with the X's and O's as well. Dabo Swinney is a great culture builder. He was at a program whose benefits outstripped its reputation, which allowed him to incrementally gain success without feeling pressure to win big immediately. He found himself in a very easy conference to win. That always helps. And most importantly of all, he struck gold with two consecutive superstar quarterbacks, with the exception of one gap year (2017).

And that right there is the biggest key. Nick Saban aside, these coaches have won with great quarterback play, particularly Carroll and Swinney. Even with all of the mistakes Harbaugh has made, think of how different Michigan would be right now if two things changed: we didn't lose on a botched punt against Michigan State and a bad ball placement against Ohio State and if Harbaugh found his star quarterback. Not saying it's merely bad luck that Harbaugh hasn't found his guy yet but it has certainly been the #1 reason by far that his tenure has not gone as planned. The relentless media criticism since Day 1 has also been a major drag.

I think people need to realize that Bama, Clemson, and OSU are minor league football teams with universities attached.  UM clearly isn't willing to play that game.

There was a time when all of the guys you mentioned were the young, up and comers. Teams took a chance on a guy and it worked out well for them. 
 

What we know, is that Harbaugh isn’t getting it done and isn’t showing signs of changing that. 
 

So why not take a chance on a guy like Campbell who is 41 years old. Winning at a program that NEVER wins. His players love him. He shows passion and fire. 
 

Is it a sure thing that he’ll get us where we want to be? Of course not, nobody is. But we do know what we are doing NOW isn’t working, and we have zero shot at getting any of the coaching greats. 
 

If my options are Harbaugh purgatory and taking a shot on a young, up and coming coach then my answer is the your up and coming coach. Without hesitation. One of these young coaches are going to be the next big thing. And if we didn’t go after them to keep doing what we’ve been doing the past couple seasons, then we’ll be kicking ourselves 

"What's the secret sauce for these fellas?"

Preparation H. It helps with the "discomfort back there".

Given your list, I'm going with illegal recruiting and steroids. 

Seriously, this isn't even speculation anymore.

OSU has been caught multiple times illegally recruiting and has suffered nothing for it.

We all know Clemson offered $400K to flip Gary and one year had something like 24 guys test positive for steroids

Alabama has had multiple guys who tested positive for steroids (at least two at the NFL combine!) and they were the focus of a published article about bagmen.

Pete Carroll has a show cause if he ever tries to coach in college again because he got caught illegally recruiting. Reggie Bush had to give up his Heisman because of it. 

Sometimes the obvious answer is obvious. This is one of them. 

It's like cheating in euchre. Some people set the deck. Some use signals. The team that sets the deck AND uses signals usually wins. Everyone cheats to some degree in college football. The teams/coaches that jump full in have the success. Throw in the current playoff system which perpetuates their dominance as well and it really doesn't take much analysis.

 What makes anyone think Matt Campbell will consistently beat Ryan Day and compete with a 20-year juggernaut?  

I think JH built a base line that is attainable from several decent coaches.  JH's first three years were promising all the way up until the 2018 OSU game, which was the beginning of the end.  I think most of us would happily take 10-win seasons so long as we are competitive in bowl games, even if don't win them all the time, and are competitive with OSU, even if we don't win those either.  Granted, it will get frustrating if we never beat them, but I think we are all realistic that they are currently a juggernaut that UM is unlikely to replicate.  So, we'll take our 10 wins, close bowl game, close loss to OSU, and beat Wiscy and PSU 2/3.  I think there is reason to believe if someone else can do the basic things JH did well, and minimize some of his shortcomings with his interpersonal skills and retain assistants a bit better, keep players from transferring at such a high rate, improve the player development a bit, and sheesh just get lucky with a QB once in a while, that a guy like Campbell could be better.  UM has all the resources to have a high quality program and a lot of HC should be able to be successful here, even if not at OSU's level.

The next best thing, competing with PSU, Wiscy, we already have.

Unfortunately JH is not that any longer.  He's been on a downward trajectory since the OSU game in 2018.  He lost the team.  Do you really think he can get these kids back into a 10-win team anytime soon and play OSU close again like he did in 2016 and 2017?  I don't.  There was a time we took OSU to overtime.  Now, we are taking Rutgers to OT.  We don't have that any longer.  It's only going to get worse under JH's watch.  The pundits were right that he wears on people and is only effective short term.  He's a turn around guy, not a program builder.  He needs to pass the torch.

I don't know what the answer is as to why some guys can make the transition and some can't.  I would have thought that back in the day Gary Barnett would've done well at Colorado, and more recently that Frost at Nebraska, Taggart at Florida State etc. would've made it work  I recall Craig Ross saying that he slightly prefered Herman over Harbaugh in 2015.  One thing that Saban, Meyer and Swinney have in common is that they had at least some exposure to big-time programs and/or mentors on the way up (Meyer at Notre Dame/Ohio State, Saban at Ohio State and under Belichick, and Swinney at Alabama).

Part of me wonders if there are just so many elite players/staff coaches out there, and that so long as the big 3 are clicking on all cylinders that somewhere in the 9-10 win range is generally the max for the Notre Dames, Georgias, Oklahomas, Oregons, Penn States (and sometimes Michigan) and whoever else falls in the next tier.

 Matt Campbell, et al, what does it really take to go from midlevel prodigy to winning the Big 10?

Michigan arrogance at it's finest.

I don't know, ask Urban Meyer.  But this toxic fanbase would have shit all over him because Utah and BG.