Post your spring game observations....
Things I noticed:
-Orji true value won't be seen unless in real games, because no chance they'll run him the way he can run, which will affect coverages in real games.
-Warren is accurate and good arm. Seems opposite of what the an article here recently said (cannon arm but can't hit broad side of NCAA hypocrisy).
-Dunlap is the 3rd rb and will get a lot of carries. Looked dynamic.
-Koumba and Ike both look like full blown seniors...they sure look the part, and played well.
-Herring isn't ready to be in the 2 deep. Got blown up many times. Needs a year.
-LB Sullivan looked as good as the starter to me... Made some superb plays and I think he will be a star here, and will be starting next season.
-Waller is fully ready to start.
Post what you saw.
Defense is good, don’t have a QB. Lol.
Hard to judge Orji here... His superb running threat will completely change defensive coverages, and they weren't gonna run him today. And Warren looked very steady.
We don’t run our QBs or haven’t anyway
Assuming all of the QB's on the roster have progressed, then would you take the chance of running JJ the last 2 seasons? Especially when you have Blake Corum or Donovan Edwards in the backfield.
April 20th, 2024 at 11:47 PM ^
I get what youre saying but I will believe Michigan will consistently call read option plays (where the QB keeping is actually an option) and designed QB runs when I see it.
If you're starting Orji it's because he's a plus runner. It also means that you have to incorporate him pretty fully into the run game. He's a big guy -- he can take it.
I smile to think how the Don is going to benefit from a fully charged run game with a QB run threat like Orji.
April 22nd, 2024 at 10:39 AM ^
It worked with Denard without a top tier running back, so hoping the offense can figure out stuff to run with Orji. Stacked boxes will be almost an every down thing, so Michigan is going to have to figure out how to take advantage of that. The Denard / Tebow fake up the middle and then over the top throw to a slot or TE would be great. Tebow's size and running may be a similar comparison to Orji. Maybe steel those old plays.
If you have a “Denard” weapon you do ….. running, not driving
April 20th, 2024 at 11:10 PM ^
Unless they’re planning on going with the Wishbone, a QB’s running ability is only a threat if they can complete passes downfield. Today at least, Orji could only hit the check downs.
If the opposition needs to commit 7-8 to the box to stop the run all you have to do is hit the check-down. Cade was pretty successful by hitting the check-downs even when he was not a running threat. With Orgi, the LBs have got to be playing the running lanes-even the safeties are creeping up to the LOS. The M & M & M boys, Moore, Morgan and Morris have demonstrated their ability to take it to the house under these conditions. It is still pick your poison for a defense.
What if it’s 3rd and 8?
Obviously, having a valid passing attack is extremely beneficial to keeping the defense from 8 man boxes. But a running QB like Orji is not just there to scramble. He can be an active part of the rush game, forcing the defense to account for him. I look forward to this immensely.
And obviously they are going to start Orji, if he is even moderately competent as a passer. He's the only guy with an elite trait.
April 22nd, 2024 at 10:42 AM ^
I'd get lots of practice for Edwards tossing balls too. A little mad magicians where two dynamic players can throw over the top.
"we don't have a QB"
Wut?
At one point, Alex Orji was 12/17 (70%) for 97 yards. And then he finished 12/19 (63%). (IIRC, there was at least 1 drop maybe 2 drops.)
That's pretty good considering fans were fixated on Alex Orji's 50% HS completion percentage. People don't understand that college offenses are much more efficient than ever before. OCs are great at scheming up efficient plays with multiple options.
I'm just happy that Alex Orji and Davis Warren seemed like viable starting QBs.
I’m no expert, but I also feel like Donavan Edwards benefited from Orji’s threat as a runner. Not to say Edwards isn’t a complete dude, but it just looked so easy with the both of them together.
I thought Edwards looked great. I expect a huge year out of him.
If your evidence is orji hitting 60 percent of his relatively easy throws for under 6 yards an attempt....idk man.
@Quailman:
Look up JJ's spring game stats. They weren't impressive either.
Along those lines, did people forget that JJ threw an INT early in last season's spring game? I'm just glad neither Orji nor Warren threw an INT.
We're not an air raid offense. Our QBs almost never have video-game numbers. We strive for our QBs to be productive and efficient. And our Spring Games are structured to reflect that.
Also, Orji's running ability will be more of a factor than JJ's was. Orji should've finished with 2 TDs. In a game situation, that one-handed touch is not a sack.
"Look up JJ's spring game stats. They weren't impressive either."
Come on. You are reaching here if you are trying to make this an argument. Going in to spring games, JJ had played in game action, made actual passes in games, and looked like a competent passer. This is not a good argument.
You are the one trying to say that Orji's stats make him look viable, I'm saying that you are also reaching here if that is your argument.
@Quailman:
No, it seems you're confused about my argument. I wrote the following below:
"I watched his throws. Orji started off shaky (0-2) and then got going. I liked his accuracy on some key throws (like the 4th down play to extend a drive). I was more focused on how he was processing reads/progressions and his pocket awareness - the stuff that can't be gleaned from looking at stats from a glorified scrimmage. The most important a QB shows is command of offense in various situations. That is the best indicator of whether a QB will or won't be productive."
^ That's why I think Alex Orji can be viable.
I included the stat line to show that his accuracy was mostly fine. A lot of people were fixated on his 50% HS completion percentage. (How many have actually watched his HS tapes?)
In the same way that I wasn't fixated about JJ's completion % in a spring game and focused on how he looked as a 2nd year starter ("Did he seem polished and poised?), I was similarly focused on how Alex Orji looked in situations.
Ex:
- Could he feel the pressure and sidestep it with a slide?
- Was he doing half-field reads or going through a progression?
- Did he have an innate sense for when to take off and use his feet?
- Did Orji have choppy irregular footwork in the pocket or were his drops smooth and controlled?
Overall, I was pleased with how Alex Orji, Davis Warren, and Jadyn Davis performed with makeshift OL and some back-ups.
April 20th, 2024 at 11:12 PM ^
His accuracy when he tried to go down the field was non-existent.
April 22nd, 2024 at 10:48 AM ^
I didn't watch the game, but just wanted to weigh in on spring games in general. Usually, the defense is well ahead of the offense in the Spring. I am assuming our experienced defense is really far ahead of most offenses.
Offenses in spring games are usually vanilla. Hitting check downs is an important part of the game, so I am happy that he is seeing this and making those plays.
Orji definitely needs a deep threat. JJ struggled with hitting deep balls for whatever reason the first year he started. Last year he was amazing, but I am ok letting our defense, run game, and passing check downs carry us for a lot of the season. Turnovers are still one of the biggest threats to success. I don't know if Orji will be a top QB or not, but wouldn't put too much stock into this game.
JJ was a stud 5* passer coming out of IMG … Orji was not so let’s forget about spring game comparisons lol … and when teams line up 10 in the box will Orji become JJ as a thrower ?
@BOLEACH7
"JJ was a stud 5* passer coming out of IMG"
JJ McCarthy was a 5 star passer based on what he did in Illinois. In his senior year at IMG (COVID season), JJ's completion percentage in 8 games was 58%. But evalutaors gave JJ a pass because he transferred into IMG and adapted quickly.
"Orji was not"
Sure. But someday people will be able to look past a HS rating that has no predictive power over production in college. That day is clearly not today.
QB rankings are notoriously unreliable. Don't think so? Look at the top 40 QBs in each of the last 10 classes. You'll laugh once you realize how many highly ranked players washed out and became forgotten.
"when teams line up 10 in the box will Orji become JJ as a thrower?"
That's literally what we want teams to do. It makes play action much easier to hit.
Btw, JJ being a 5 star didn't matter. A lot of CFB analysts pointed out that while JJ was efficient, he wasn't asked to do much.
Ex: Do you realize that JJ averaged only 199.4 passing yards per game last season over 15 games? (To put that into context, Cade McNamara averaged 184 passing yards per game in 2021 over 14 games.) So JJ being a 5 star didn't matter in terms of a MASSIVE production boost. He was simply more efficient and clutch in big moments.
It sure was nice having JJ back there for that last regulation drive against Alabama. That's the situation where the 5* pays off. True, we didn't particularly need his abilities for almost all the season -- but we don't go to the Natty without J J on that drive.
That said, I'm looking forward to Orji as our QB. Get ready for some real read options.
April 20th, 2024 at 11:10 PM ^
JJ was a 5 star recruit and will be a top 5-10 pick in the NFL draft. If your evaluation process is “will the next Michigan QB be like JJ”, you are in for a very frustrating experience regardless of the final results of this upcoming season.
“We strive for our QBs to be productive and efficient.
The concern being that completing 12/19 passes for 97 isn’t productive or efficient. There is nothing productive or efficient about 5.1 YPA or 8.0 YPComp.
Now quit with the JJ comparison. JJ was a 5* QB with a proven arm. Orji was a 3* who wasn’t even expected to play QB in college and has shown absolutely nothing to say he has an adequate arm.
I’m not saying he can’t be a viable QB, I’m saying he didn’t disprove the concerns today. A good completion percentage on a bunch of short throws doesn’t change the narrative at all.
@JonnyHintz
"Now quit with the JJ comparison"
Your reading comprehension is not impressing me. I merely compared JJ MCarthy's spring game performance to Alex Orji's spring performance. I did not extrapolate. I said that Michigan - which is decidedly run-centric - does not showcase impressive passing offenses in spring games. I implied that Alex Orji was basically "fine" because the Michigan spring game doesn't allow a QB to look anything more than "fine." Hence, not even JJ and his vaunted 5 star status mattered in a Spring Game. In other words, Michigan spring games are not indicative of anything. JJ didn't impress in the 2023 Spring Game despite being proven as a 1st year starter in 2022.
"JJ was a 5* QB with a proven arm."
Alex Orji has a very strong arm. Have you watched his HS highlights? He has 2 full years of tape. In both tapes, he demonstrates a very strong arm and an ability to hit deep passes. And true to form, Alex Orji hit a deep pass in the 2022 Spring Game. Orji's arm and arm strength isn't the issue. It's whether he has the accuracy, mental processing, and poise to play QB at a high level for a national contender.
Btw, I'll repeat what I typed above.
2023 JJ averaged 199.4 passing yards per game over 15 games. That's only 15 more yards per game than what Cade (184) averaged in 2021. This is why Brooks Austin (the equivalent of Seth for Georgia Bulldogs) couldn't figure out why Michigan wasn't asking JJ to do more. IIRC, Austin's quote was "Michigan still plays offense as if Cade is still the starting QB instead of a 5 star." So 2 star, 3 star, 4 star, 5 star, some magical bullshit 7 star - none of those star ratings matter in terms of raw nominal QB production for Michigan's current style of football. We're entering 2024 and no Michigan QB has thrown for 30+ TDs which is freaking bizarre. Many thought JJ would finally be the first to do it in 2023. Nope. To his credit, 2023 JJ McCarthy was efficient and delivered key completions when it mattered but 2019 Joe Burrow he was not. Was he capable of much more? Absolutely. But Jim Harbaugh's Michigan wasn't gonna throw the ball 40+ times.
So to summarize: a Michigan spring game isn't indicative of anything w/r/t passing offense. Ex: JJ's spotty 2023 Spring Game didn't indicate good or bad. Fans just didn't care because JJ had started in 2022 so had a season of data to calm their concerns. We don't have any regular season data on Alex Orji so fans will be nervous / concerned / worried / paranoid entering the season. And some/many fans will fixate on Alex Orji's 3 star rating - as if that matters any more. His 3 star rating does not matter. Star ratings only matter in aggregate.
April 20th, 2024 at 11:13 PM ^
The guy throws sidearm with poor footwork. How about that?
April 21st, 2024 at 12:23 PM ^
You think JJ only throwing for ~200 yards a game might have something to do with not taking a snap in the 4th quarter of 2/3 of our games? This has been gone over multiple times. JJ had more first half pass attempts than any of the other QBs in the draft. Because of a combination of Michigan blowing teams out and JJ sitting the 4th quarter, this bullshit narrative of him not being asked to do much exists. Sorry Michigan wasn’t airing it out while up 3 scores in the 2nd half I guess.
People aren’t concerned about Orji because of the spring game. People are concerned because you’re looking at a guy who hasn’t shown anything other than that he has a strong arm and is athletic. Accuracy was a concern coming out of high school, he’s done nothing to squash those concerns. Mechanics were a concern coming out of high school, still appears to struggle with footwork and a sidearm release. It was to the point where scouts were openly questioning whether Orji would even play QB in college.
The point is that nothing about his performance yesterday did anything to put those concerns to rest. Not that his performance is causing those concerns, they were present in everyone’s mind long before they took the field yesterday.
@JonnyHintz:
"You think JJ only throwing for ~200 yards a game might have something to do with not taking a snap in the 4th quarter of 2/3 of our games?"
No.
JJ playing 4th quarters against non-ranked overmatched opponents would've had a negligible difference on his stats. He would've mostly handed the ball off to RBs just like the back-up QBs did.
JJ had 332 pass attempts over 15 games. That's 22.1 passes per game.
Even if we throw out the extreme outlier (8 passes vs PSU), the average only rises to 23 passes per game.
We can also look at his pass attempts against the 5 ranked opponents Michigan played. He played all 4 quarters in those games:
#10 PSU: 7/8
#2 OSU: 16/20
#16 Iowa - 22/30 (and most of these were short checkdowns after we built a lead)
#4 Alabama - 17/27
#2 Washington - 10/18
In those 5 games, he averaged 20.6 passes per game. Even if I throw out the extreme outlier (PSU), his average pass attempts against the other 4 ranked opponents was 23.75.
"JJ had more first half pass attempts than any of the other QBs in the draft."
This would surprise me A LOT considering how often Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix threw in 2023. I need a source on this.
"The point is that nothing about his performance yesterday did anything to put those concerns to rest."
And my point is that the Michigan Spring Game isn't designed to put such concerns to rest.
As I said above, the Michigan Spring Game doesn't let any QB (even a 5 star QB like JJ) be anything more than "just fine" because it's not designed to let QBs shine.
Get ready for the following 2024 season:
Lots of Orji in the fully weaponized run game, in which the Don has an epic season.
Lots of easy read short passes as we move the sticks and march down the field.
A completely suffocating defense that cleans up mistakes and gives short fields.
This will be enough for a very good season. If Orji can improve to make some downfield shots each game, then we're in the conversation.
Whether you pass a lot or a little, yards per attempt is a very good metric. Under 6 ypa is bad, full stop. If you're averaging 8 yards per reception you need to be hitting over 80% of your throws.
Small sample size, drops, blah blah blah. Under 6 ypa is not good. The question is, was there enough to the eye to suggest Orji could reasonably command over 6 ypa in the fall. And preferably 7. If not you have to look elsewhere for your starting QB.
They know he won't run...so they'll sit back. Cmon. Wait until they have to stack the box for his running threat.
All indications are that Sherrone is a full-fledged disciple of Jim Harbaugh. And here, Orgi looks like the "chain-mover" that makes Jimmy smile from ear to ear-as he rips the heart out of the opposing defense. Sherrone, like Jim, doesn't give a damn about style points for the fans...and this is a very, very good thing (from my POV).
“At one point, Alex Orji was 12/17 (70%) for 97 yards.”
Grain of salt: I wasn’t able to watch, BUT that comes out to 8 yards per COMPLETION, which implies a LOT of short stuff. For comparison, that’s a full 4.5 yards fewer than JJ had and 4.2 fewer than Cade McNamara had here. So you’re not really going to get away from that accuracy concern if you’re talking about completion % on short stuff.
Not to mention, 97 yards on 17 attempts based on how much Michigan throws the ball over the course of a game is going to be like 120 yards a game, so again you’re really not moving the needle here for people who are concerned about what he brings to the table as a passer.
He had several balls where he led the receiver and maybe one or two touch throws I didn't think he had in his bag, so he moved the needle for me. Only QB who was allowed to throw it over 15 yards was Warren. I think jury is definitely out on that for Orji and whether he can make the few, but accurate throws, a Michigan QB has to make above 10/15 yards once in a great while. Other thing that is critical for a guy like him is the OLine...see Bama's QB for comparison when under duress and when not touched. Orji look similar to me.
Please no more Milroe comparisons. Orji isn’t even in the same ballpark.
Milroe had to start somewhere, and when he did, he wasn't that far away from what Orji looks like. Sorry man, its fair to compare athletes playing the same position in a sport at the college level. Not comparing him to current day Milroe at all, just the pathway.
Look, the reason you start Orji is to fully weaponize our rushing attack and make it a truly devastating force that crushes opponent's will. Then you hope he gets better at the passing game as the season goes on so that we can win a playoff game or two.
While this is going on, you heavily invest in Jadyn Davis to become a QB who can win it all.
@JonnyHintz:
As I said above, JJ McCarthy didn't have good stats in the 2023 Michigan Spring Game.
Michigan runs vanilla stuff on pass offense during Spring Games. That's been a common theme the last 3 Spring Games including today.
I'm fine with Orji taking what the defense gave him.
a mixture of second and third team defenders lest we forget !
JJ didn’t have narratives that needed defeating either though. I’m not saying we should look too deep into the spring game, I’m saying the opposite actually. None of the questions or concerns regarding Orji have been answered. An okay completion percentage with exclusively short stuff means nothing
This is a take if you didn’t watch the fourth quarter. I felt the same way after the first series. But if Orji can be who he was late in the game where he was making all the easy throws look easy, we’re fine at QB.
I don’t think it’s fair what it said in the main page article about Warren and it not being real in games in past seasons. It’s not like he was a chance to show what he can do in meaningful snaps last year. It just seems like a weird conclusion…
What happened was is the bad part of human nature. Warren lit up the spring game a few years ago, looking much better than Cade... then the following year had a rough spring game (I think it was spring or it was mop up duty in real games) and people expectations were very high so they set a new perception, but I dont think its reality. Warren can play well enough.
Right. Between that comment and the one the other day about him, there feel like some weird vibes against Warren here.
He was like 5/9 for 100 yards in 2022 and last year wasn't he dinged up most of the year? Harsh to say he doesn't get it done in games.
He’s 5/14 in his career with a pick. Small sample size and it’s spread out over garbage time in two seasons, but the in-game data doesn’t match the spring game performances.
April 20th, 2024 at 11:09 PM ^
”but the in-game data doesn’t match the spring game performances.”
Just ask yourself this: does the in game play calling for his plays match the spring game performances? Clearly, no. Nor does who he is playing with, the intensity of the game, etc. It’s ludicrous to draw this conclusion about someone the program really clearly likes.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:37 PM ^
I mean you have other Michigan backups going out there and getting the job done with the same personnel Warren had. Tuttle went 15/17 last year. Denegal went 4/5.
“Nor does who he is playing with, the intensity of the game,”
I don’t know how much you think a spring game differs intensity wise compared to garbage time of a real game, but Michigan’s backups/3rd string aren’t so bad that you should be completing less that 1/3 of your passes
”It’s ludicrous to draw this conclusion about someone the program really clearly likes.”
How? He’s had a couple good spring games, and clearly that hasn’t translated to the field. Or is your argument that 5/16 passing is an adequate representation of his positive spring game showings? And they “like” him. They like all of their players. But he’s been noticeably absent from all of the insider tidbits and mentions for starting. Rumblings have all been about Orji, Denegal, and Tuttle (referencing his position when he’s back from injury) with passing mentions about Warren and Jadyn Davis.