OT: Would you draft Jalen Carter?
I'm fascinated by Jalen Carter in the upcoming draft. He's the archetypal high risk/high reward player. Rated as a potential first pick overall, had significant off-field issues come to light and a horrible pro-day. Do you take a chance on a potential difference-maker, or do you play it safe? Put on your GM hat, do you draft him? Top 5? Top 10? Off your board completely?
If I'm the Lions, I don't think I take him at 6, but definitely would at 18.
Here is where I would trust Dan Cambell to evaluate the interview and background investigation. While Carter was dealing with those issues, it's definitely possible that his head wasn't in "the game" during his pro day. If his coaches at Georgia say that he works hard every day and his pro day was an anomaly, I'd take him.
He's a position of need and a potential difference maker. Taking Carter isn't as much of a risk if the right investigations are done. This Lions regime can navigate through issues, while the regimes of the past definitely weren't qualified to think through issues. Main reason the Lions didn't draft Randy Moss.
The decision is even more difficult than what you presented against it.
You make a valid point when you say that he may have been out of shape because he was distraught over the accident. But there is more information that might indicate this is part of a bigger problem. For some time there had been apparently legitimate rumors about his motor. Supposedly he even had to be pushed by his coaches in practice. Then he showed up 9 pounds overweight and ran out of gas and didn’t finish some of the drills and in the others that he did try, he did not finish.
Also, you have to consider the position. It requires big men like Carter, to engage other big men and a fight every down. In addition, that position requires taking on a double team of those other giant guys. Consequently, even well conditioned big men like that have to be subbed. So it is almost a half or, probably at best, a 2/3 position. That probably means that if he is drafted at that place in the draft he will have to get a 20 million+ contract. That eats up a lot of salary cap for a part-time position for a person who has a questionable motor and imotivation.
i’m not saying I think he should not be drafted. But I am saying that I don’t think any of us have enough information to make that decision reasonably. Let’s hope the Lions learn something in their interviews with him and their other research and resources.
Good points.
In my post I talked about investigating with the coaches. I didn't specify, but that investigation should include; 1. What kind of a motor does Carter have? 2. What kind of teammate is he? 3. Does he take football serious, or is he just blessed with physical talent.
You talked about considering the Carter's position for that draft spot, and the relation to the salary cap. First, Spotrac.com says that pick would likely get a contract of about $30M, with $19M guaranteed. Your point is off because that money would be broken up over 4 years with an optional 5 year. The 2023 cap hit would only be roughly $5.5M. Which is less than 3% of the 2023 salary cap ($224M). To me the salary is a moot point. If you have someone that can stop the run on first and second down and create 3rd and long situations, that's totally worth it.
Again, it all comes down to whether or not Campbell feels he'd fit in with the hard working culture the team has.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
Lions front office thinking in the past:
Randy Moss- too many issues to draft.
Titus Young and Charles Rogers- welcome aboard!
Granted those decisions were years apart, but the Lions talent identification department seemed to consist of two guys from a nearby oil change shop and a drunk rooster named Earl.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
Hey---at least Earl gives a cluck.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Not sure those three are comparable. Young spiraled because of concussions. Rogers had egg shell collarbones.
April 19th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
I have to wonder if missing on Randy Moss was part of the reason they ignored the red flags with Charles Rogers and Titus Young.
To be fair, if Rogers had stayed healthy I suspect he would have had a career more like Roy Williams. Not quite a decade in the league, a year or two where it looked like he might break out but otherwise underwhelming considering where he was drafted.
April 19th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
I will say whatever Brad Holmes thinks of Carter, let's go with that because everything he has done in his tenure has been gold.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Agree with your comment about trusting Campbell here. He and Brad Holmes (along with the others in the organization who provide input on these decisions, i.e. Chris Spielman) have thus far been outstanding in evaluating talent and finding guys that buy in to the organization's mission of tough, smart, team-first football. This is a significant change from really any other head coach and front office the Lions have had in decades. No doubt they'll eventually bust on a draft pick, but their limited draft and free agent history suggests they know what they're doing.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Agree with you on this point. If the Lions take him at 6, I have enough trust in the organization at this point that I will support the pick, as the talent/production is evident. If they choose not to take him and he's still on the board (I don't think he will be btw, my prediction is that the top 5 includes 3 QBs, Anderson, and Carter), then I'll trust that they've done enough research to justify that decision.
Holmes has proven that he's a draft wizard (albeit through just 2 drafts), I've never had this much trust in the Lions' front office as I do now! I'd even trust them if they took one of the top QBs, although I'd be a bit more reluctant to support it if they chose Richardson or Levis.
This is a really tough one. Carter is obviously very talented - no doubt about that. I think the question isn't really about what has gone down this off-season - it's what was he like during his entire time at Georgia. In other words, are his recent issues the exception or the rule with this player? NFL teams will have to trust their due diligence process to try and answer that.
As far as the Lions are concerned, I don't see them taking Carter. I don't think they are quite far along enough to roll the dice on a guy like Carter, even if their research on him says it may be worth it.
I think if they get good reports they do take him. Lions have to be one of the favorites to win their division along with Minn. He is an exceptional talent at a position of need that could help push them to the top of the North.
They're actually already favored to win the North, but your point still stands.
April 19th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
I don't think he'll slip past Seattle anyways, but here's the conundrum: If he's a bad apple and everyone passes on him, the Lions would probably pass on him too, but if he isn't that bad he won't get to the Lions to choose because he is elite when he's on.
The player going 6th overall in any draft should be an exceptional player at a position of need. If Aiden Hutchinson was in this draft there's a good chance he would have fallen to the 6th pick given the QB situations with the top 3-4 picks. Carter has higher upside but the downside risk is huge.
I'd rather have one of the highly rated CBs that don't have all sorts of personality red flags if Anderson isn't available
April 19th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
I'd be shocked if they take him. Campbell's bedrock principles are grit and character--no chance he allows a potential slacker in that locker room.
I read an article about Carter (wish I could find it) that said that while at Georgia, he wasn't the self-motivated type, but was more the kind of player who would follow the examples of the other defensive standouts. They were the natural leaders, whereas he was more the follower. And that's not a criticism. A lot of young men (or old men, for that matter) need guidance, and an example to follow, That's fine, and if you know that about him going in, you can deal with this supremely talented 21-year-old.
But do you want to, especially with the #6 pick? Or do you want the player who may not be as talented but is still good, and is the one with the fire in his belly and the chip on his shoulder? The workout warrior who's like a racehorse that never needs to see the whip? The guy who is going to do his absolute damnedest to beat you?
It's a risk either way. I'd play it safe and take someone else, especially when you have other needs, both now and in the upcoming seasons. But if they do take him, I'll trust that Brad Holmes, Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn did their due diligence, and believe that they can get the best out of Carter.
Reading this, I think I pass. Followers are fine where you have stability. They tend to latch on to one or two coaches/players, and when those people move on, they can get 'lost'. The money invested isn't worth it at 6. 18, maybe, but if there's a DT with a Malcolm Rodriguez personality, I'd take that over Carter.
While I appreciate what you are saying many people mature at different rates and he is only 22. He also benefits from having an incredible leader in his position group in Aidan Hutchinson.
Totally agree on the rate of maturation. I think as long as you know there will be a leadership framework around a 'follower', it's fairly low-risk. Hutch will be there for a long time which is great, but coaches come and go. In the end, for the first time in my lifetime as a Lions fan, I trust the judgement of the staff to make the best call possible with all their draft picks.
I actually believed in Schwartz/Mayhew but I totally understand where you are coming from.
I actually believed in Schwartz/Mayhew but I totally understand where you are coming from.
Unless he's always been a mess behind the scenes, he's a take. He may well be a generational talent, at a position of need, and was the No. 1 prospect prior to the crash. I don't recall any concerns about him prior to that. Most picks carry some risk. QB picks are almost always very risky. Go big or go home.
April 19th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
not in love with a simile involving whips
I'd taking him and am really hoping he falls to the Lions. I will trust the staff though if there are too many red flags. He is young and I've given up on the idea that pro athletes are perfect human beings. Hopefully, he has learned from the experience and the Lions can put a good culture around him. At the end of the day, talent usually wins and he is very talented. He could really help the Lions up front.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
Hmmm, trust the Lions front office. Hard to flip that switch after the last 65 years.
A top pick needs to be a low risk high reward player. A high risk/high reward player is someone who I'd pass on until the talent is much greater than the other choices available. Also the choice is better suited to a team sitting at the top rather than one that is in need because the top team is better able to absorb the risk.
As far the Lions, I agree with the take a pass at 6 but consider taking him at 18. I think the secondary is a bigger need for the Lions than the defensive line.
*unless it is a QB, then the NFL scouts will ignore game tape, mechanics, stats, w-l, all for "potential." Purely talking about on the field stuff here with regard to players like Richardson and Zach Wilson.
Off the field, I wouldn't draft a guy in the top 10 who was part of a drag race that killed two people, but that's just me. Rewarding someone with millions of dollars despite their actions keeps them from maturing faster.
Carter could be as good as Albert Haynseworth, but he can also sink a team like Albert Haynesworth.
No GM is going to be criticized for passing on Jalen Carter, but they will be highly scrutinized for picking him anywhere near the Top 10 to 15.
That said, if he's there at 9 and the Bears take the risk...I'll root for the guy on the field and off. If he's taken somewhere else, I'll root for the guy in his life, but he can suck it on the field.
He sort of gives me Nick Fairley vibes
This is the exact same feel I have with Carter. Too much baggage to draft at #6.
I would not. I think the draft can be a big enough crap shoot without going after someone with so many red flags.
I guess only if he fell much more than my fellow GMs would allow him to fall.
You can't start building a defense without a couple of players Carter's size who can bottle up the inside runs. After that, players are somewhat interchangeable, though obviously you need enough speed to cover wide receivers. A huge plus if they require double-teams or they collapse too many pockets.
The downside is that they tire quicker than anyone else. It's not an easy job and players need to be motivated. So I'd say no to the first round, but in the non-existent world in which he lasts into the second, it becomes a good risk.
I'd take Mazi in the 2nd round before I'd take Carter in the 1st.
This is a best case for me too. I'd even trade up to 3 for Anderson.
This is probably the thing I want the least -- trading up for Anderson. The price you pay to trade up into the top 3 is just far too high if you arent trying to draft your franchise quarterback. Him falling to 6 would be superb though.
If I had the info the lions have id probably have a clear cut decision. As of now id take him at 6, Lions need talent for making playoffs next season. I will be furious if they take a qb at 6 being AR or levis.
Goff had a resurgent year last year, has led a team to a super bowl and is only 28 years old... As much as I like Holmes, if the Lions take a QB at 6 he should be fired...period
Even if you don't think Goff is the long-term solution (put me in that camp), this is not the time and position to address that need.
Rumors saying the Lions should go after Trey Lance, too. We don't need a QB! Goff is fine! If the Lions take a quarterback in the first five rounds I'll be upset.
Anthony Richardson is going to be this year's Manziel. The dude sucks and it's crazy how hyped up he is.
April 19th, 2023 at 10:24 PM ^
What rumor? You mean you heard them talking about it on the radio?
The radio? What's that??
I’d slap my own grandmother to get Carter if he’s available at 6.
I’ll slap tour grandma too… But to pass on Carter and take Mazi at 18!
April 19th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
I love Mazi and would love to see a Blue-tinged DL, but I’d take Calijah Kancy there.
Yes. Especially for the lions. The lions need interior DL, and Carter is the best prospect there since Aaron Donald. If he is there at 6 you take him. If he works out he is a generational player. If he can't get his head on straight, he can still be used situationally.
In this draft talent wise it is, Will Anderson 1, Jalen Carter 2. then a huge gap to anyone else (including the QBs)
Agreed that there is a major drop off in talent. He's going to be a top 10 pick no matter what. If you don't take him for character concerns, someone else will take him. Although a different situation, look at Laremy Tunsil. Dropped due to character concerns but I bet you several teams that picked before where he went now regret it. Personally, I think Seattle takes him at 5 and that's a steal for them. The Lions are really in a great position for the future, and if you give Carter a great support system (Hutch) I think you're fine.
He's at a position of need, and there's a large drop after him. If they're looking at corner, it's a deeper class with first round/second round talent. I do NOT think you should draft a RB in the first round, even if Bijan is as good as they say. Gibbs from Alabama will probably be available day 2, and our old friend Charbonnet
It will depend on who is available and on things I do not have access too, like interviews. HUGE red flags but HUGE talent.
I would probably take him.
I’m trying to think of instances like this: a top 5 player with “character” issues. What happens to these draft picks? I can think of Laramy Tunsil, Randy Moss, maybe Warren Sapp. Those seem to turn out ok. What about the ones I can’t think of that were busts or got in more trouble?
Lawrence Phillips