OT – What caused MLB to set a record for Home Runs in a Month?
I’ve been watching MLB a lot over the last week and saw there were a record 1,101 home runs hit in one month – June 2017. That surpasses the former record of 1,069 set in May 2000. For reference, May 2000 was two seasons after McGwire/Sosa battled for the season home run record and one season before Bonds broke that record. Read: right in the heart of the steroids era.
MLB has been greatly stepped up their PED testing and is touting their success. Two players this year were caught and each given 80 game suspensions. Their message is ‘the age of steroids is over’.
And yet, we are seeing home runs hit at a record pace. Why? Here are some random thoughts from MLB personalities (former ball players) over the last week:
1. Pitchers are not pitching inside
- They cited the LA Dodgers with the most pitches thrown inside and one of the lowest rates of home runs allowed.
- Houston is on the opposite end of the equation with most home runs allowed and fewest pitches thrown inside.
2. More emphasis on power hitting over speed on the base path
- There were a record 36 leadoff home runs in June; 5 more than the next highest set in May 2016. More teams are putting power in the leadoff spot.
- More hitters are increasing their “launch angle” to get the ball in the air.
- Statcast (powered by aws) is showing us more 450+ ft home runs and exit velocities over 115 mph. Just last night, a pitcher(!) from Colorado hit his first home run – a 460 ft shot.
- Everyone is swinging for the fences – even the little middle infields (like in Houston). There were a record 28 days in a row where someone had a multi home run game, snapped on June 27 (and restarted the next day).
3. The ball is wound tighter
- They cited that pitchers are getting more blisters as the try to grip the low (tight) seams.
- The tighter seams create less drag – less break in a breaking ball and farther travel on a hit ball.
- Do the hitters know the ball is wound tighter and they are swinging harder?
Could MLB want more home runs during a time where PED testing is high so we can forget about the steroids era? Or, is it just about making the game fun for the fans?
I've seen lots of claims of a "loaded" ball. Honestly though I think it's the hitter's emphasis on launching the ball and not being afraid to strikeout. Strikeouts these days aren't nearly as taboo as they used to be.
Not to swing.
Underrated.
The movie was terrible. For the love of god have a half ounce of common sense when making a movie. Water kills these things. They were running through a corn field at night. I am guessing you haven't done that. You come out soaked.
All his movies are great until the end. Then they fall apart. The Village could have been great, until the guy helps them sneak back over the fence.
Multiple times. Love it, nothing you can do to change my mind.
the number of 450+ foot home runs is up 40% this year.
Boom shacka lacka!
Pitcher Jon Gray hit the first home run of his career...467 feet.
Granted it was at Coors Field, but that home run was longer than any hit by 6 of the 8 home run derby contestants participating next week. Very strange.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/05/jon-gray-home-run-rockies-win/
Watched it on a Live Look In.
I love that I get to watch the best parts of the ball games during MLB Tonight.
I'm not going to dig up photo proof, and it looks like complete tinfoil hat conspiracy on my part, but the dude looks skinnier to me this year. Worst season since his rookie year.
There's so much self-righteousness and holier-than-thou attitudes around the subject but who cares? Nobody goes to the game to watch players hit singles.
it has to do with the hitters swinging for the fences and don't care about striking out anymore. Used to be if you had 2 strikes you chocked up and cut down the swing and tried to make contact. Not anymore these guys still load up and swing for the fences all the time.
I think a lot of it has to do with most players are now bigger, stronger and swing harder then they have in years and hell everyone loves seeing the bomb.
"They feel the dollar crunch of increasing irrelevance and are doing whatever they can."
Sounds a bit crazy, but I agree. It's "America's Pasttime" and its rulers will do whatever is needed to get the rubes (the ones who really believe it, and not the NFL, is America's Pasttime) to watch.
These are the same people who permitted PED-juicing for many years.
Nobody seems to really care if they strike out anymore. Yesterday the Indians had 14 hits and scored 2 god damn runs. Players seem to forget that with a runner on base and less than 2 outs, your first job is to move the runner over.
The defense shifts to one side of the infield and the batter can't even put the ball into the open side of the field. That could give him a hit and a runner on first easily gets to third.
Then again, I don't think there is any professional baseball player who can confidently lay down a bunt anymore.
great commercial wtih these two
Maddux is the best pitcher in history. 350 game winner with a fastball that rarely touched 90 in the middle of the steroid era.
first job anymore. For most guys, it has become their job to hit a HR almost no matter what the situation. SABRmetrics says that for most hitters (especially todays hitters) in most situations the expected number of runs scored is greatest if they continue to try to hit HRs - even with runners on and less than two outs.
Better to go for the multi-run HR with a chance still of moving the guy over than to give up the chance of the multi-run HR AND often increase the likelihood of making an out, just to move the runner over - at least, that's what the stats say.
Exceptions are close run games in late innings when a higher likelihood of scoring just one run is preferred. But even in those situations guys aren't very good at moving runners over anymore because they're almost exclusively aiming to hit HRs in other situations.
Plus, the above mentioned increase in shifts makes it more difficult to do anyway since those shifts are deployed intelligently for every batters strengths and weaknesses.
were getting McCutchen out on outside pitches. He went to work and started to hit the ball the other way, instead of looking for "his pitch" to hit over the fence.
MLB needs more of this.
I honestly think they hate playing in front of large crowds. Fill the place up and they shrink like a dried up flower in the sun. I've been to three games this year and see exactly ONE run scored and that was when the game was long decided. They have the third worst home record in baseball and people around here wonder why they dont draw more than they do.
Well at least we have the Cavs. Oh wait....
Well at least we have the Browns. Oh forget it.
Royals scare the crap out of me. The loss of Nap is having the effect that I worried it would have. There is no emotional leader in the clubhouse. Brantley and Kluber are lead by example guys, Lindor is too young to give that burden to. I was hoping it would be Kipnis, but it hasn't happened yet. We need another pitcher because Salazar is completely fucking this team over, make him go see a therapist.
The Cavs are fine for one more year. As long as LeBron/Kyrie/Love are healthy, Gordon Hayward is not going to make me lose one minute of sleep.
It doesn't matter anyway, unless there's an injury in the playoffs nobody is beating the Warriors. The NBA is ruined, in a salary capped league these teams should not exist, and that includes the Cavs.
Stop it with that last piece of nonsense. Yes, Cleveland has a brutal long term history, but the city as a sports town is nowhere near the bottom in modern history. The "woe is me cleveland fan" is losing a lot of their evidence over the last few years. This year, you had a team making their third straight NBA finals, you currently have a first place team coming off of a year where they were one run away from winning the world series, and a lowly football team who has actually had an impressive off season and seem to be making strides towards improvement for the first time in decades with a competent coach. There are worse things in sports than being a Cleveland fan these days, about time you all start acting like it! :)
Me heading to Progressive Field, Quicken Loans arena or First Energy....
you live in ohio ! nuf said.
Go Blue!
The best pitchers are starting pitchers. Starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings. Couple that with changes to the ball to reduce movement and you are going to get better hitting numbers.
Faster it comes in the faster it goes out. Hitting fastballs in the 90s is something every big leaguer can do.
'Roids
This. There's probably some new sterdoids that everyone is now taking that they are not testing for, which is why fewer people are testing positive for stuff.
Doubtful. Look at Cody Bellinger, he's rail thin.
Then look at his swing and you'll see why he's hitting bombs
https://twitter.com/bobbydemuro/status/806699191825108992?lang=en
So how do you explain Dee Gordon's positive test. Dude is the smallest guy is baseball.
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A few different reasons, including the ones in the OP. Personally I think a lot of it has to do with the shift in attitude of a lot of teams these days.
Teams want pitchers who can throw hard (95+) and even if there are some finese pitchers who are more productive, the hard throwers get a lot of leeway when the struggle to produce.
Pitchers are now pitching less to contact while swings and misses are valued more, and hitters are okay with striking out if it means the contact made is more powerful.
Faster throwers+harder swingers=more HRs
My best guess is some combination of baseball analytics refinement/sample size/incredible performances by rookies.
It seems like the launch angles you mention are really important. With analytics/technology improvements basketball shooting coaches have gotten so much better and I assume the same is happening with hitting coaches. In basketball the coaching used to mostly be about form but now they've refined that to 45 degree angles from repeatable (lower in your jump) launch points.
It seems like a down year for pitchers thus far and a boom for rookie power hitters. I'd like to see if that keeps up through the end of the year as 1) thinks may regress to the mean, 2) pitchers adjust to the young guys.
I think most explanations here are spot on:
- The ball is always a likely culprit. There's been very interesting research on how the core of the ball MLB has used has changed over the years.
- Hitters have absolutely changed their approach at the plate in the last decade, resulting in more strikeouts and more hard contact.
In my opinion, steroids have always been an overrated explanation for the home run explosion in the so-called "Steroid Era."
this makes it seem pretty obvious its the baseballs...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-mlbs-new-home-run-era-its-the-b…
That five thirty eight article is interesting and very well researched.
I read a recent sports page artice that said the seams on the ball are lower and less prominent. Pitchers seem to have noticed this and are complaining. A small difference in that single ball characteristic would make a big difference in home runs.